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Monday, July 5, 2021 7:00 AM ET National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area (Ruskin) Tropical Storm ELSA BRIEFING 7:00 AM ET Monday, July 5, 2021 What has changed: Tropical Storm Warnings Issued / Watches Expanded Next Briefing: Monday, July 5 at 1 PM Disclaimer: The information contained within is time-sensitive. Do not use after 11 AM EDT Monday. The Tropical Storm Watch on the west coast of Florida has been extended northward from Anclote River to Aucilla River. The Tropical Storm Watch on theSituation west coast of Florida has been extended northward from Anclote RiverOverview to Aucilla River. Tropical Storm Elsa ▪ The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Warning north to Englewood. ▪ The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to the Aucilla River. ▪ Storm Surge Watch from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River. ▪ NHC and forecast models keep Elsa’s intensity as a tropical storm throughout its passage in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. ▪ Elsa had winds up to 65 mph and was NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area enclosed by the cone. moving northwest at 14 mph. Last Updated: 7/5/2021 6:39 AM National Weather Service – Tampa Bay Current Satellite View Tropical Storm Elsa ▪ The center of Elsa was ~ 400 miles southeast of Fort Myers, or ~ 550 miles south southeast of Cedar Key ELSA ▪ Elsa is located very near the south coast of Cuba and will be making the anticipated passage over Cuba today. ▪ Elsa will emerge into the Florida Straits and approach the Florida Keys later this evening and tonight. Tropical Storm Watch / Warnings Tropical Storm Elsa Tropical Storm Watch / Warning Map Green Counties Not Under a Watch or Warning County Watch / Warning Levy Watch Citrus Watch Sumter Watch Hernando Watch Pasco Watch Pinellas Watch Hillsborough Watch Polk None Manatee Watch Sarasota Watch Hardee None DeSoto None Highlands None Charlotte Coastal Warning / Inland Watch Lee Coastal Warning / Inland Watch Last Updated: 7/5/2021 6:39 AM National Weather Service – Tampa Bay Time of Arrival – Tropical Storm Winds Tropical Storm Elsa Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time –TS Winds Green Counties Have Lowest Chance T.S. Wind County TS Wind Arrival - Earliest Reasonable / Most Likely Levy Tuesday 6 PM to Wednesday 12 AM Citrus Tuesday 5 PM / Tuesday 11 PM Sumter Tuesday 3 PM / Tuesday 8 PM Hernando Tuesday 5 PM / Tuesday 9 PM Pasco Tuesday 3 PM / Tuesday 8 PM Pinellas Tuesday 1 PM / Tuesday 6 PM Hillsborough Tuesday 1 PM / Tuesday 6 PM Polk Tuesday 12 PM / Tuesday 6 PM Manatee Tuesday 8 AM / Tuesday 2 PM Sarasota Tuesday 8 AM / Tuesday 1 PM Hardee Tuesday 10 AM / Tuesday 3 PM DeSoto Tuesday 10 AM / Tuesday 3 PM Highlands Tuesday 10 AM / Tuesday 4 PM Charlotte Tuesday 5 AM / Tuesday 11 AM Lee Tuesday 2 AM / Tuesday 8 AM Last Updated: 7/5/2021 6:39 AM National Weather Service – Tampa Bay Storm Surge Watch Tropical Storm Elsa ▪ Storm Surge Watch Storm Surge Watch Map remains in effect from Lee to Levy Counties with 2 to 4 feet AGL (above MHHW) possible. ▪ Most areas should see 3 feet or less ▪ A Watch means surge is possible, not guaranteed ▪ Visit Sea Level Rise Viewer to see what 2 to 4 feet AGL looks like on a map. Last Updated: 7/5/2021 6:39 AM National Weather Service – Tampa Bay Storm Surge: Most Likely Timing (+/- 3 hours) Tropical Storm Elsa: Offshore Flow: Below Normal County Start Tides. Levy Wednesday 9 AM Citrus Wednesday 7 AM Hernando Wednesday 4 AM ▪ Below normal tides 1 to 3 feet Pasco Wednesday 2 AM ahead of Elsa Pinellas Tuesday 11 PM Hillsborough Tuesday 11 PM ▪ Above normal tides (surge) of Manatee Tuesday 9 PM 2 to 4 feet AGL as Elsa Sarasota Tuesday 7 PM moves north of a location’s Charlotte Tuesday 5 PM latitude Onshore Flow: Lee Tuesday 3 PM Above Normal Tides / Storm https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov Surge Potential Last Updated: 7/5/2021 6:39 AM National Weather Service – Tampa Bay Expected Storm Total Rainfall Next 5 Days Tropical Storm Elsa ▪ Yellow area 4-6” Green area 2-4” Isolated higher amounts • Area rivers are in Action Stage or are approaching Action Stage • Rivers to Watch for Possible Minor or Moderate Flooding by Wed – Anclote, Hillsborough, Alafia, Manatee, Little Manatee, Myakka, Peace, Horse Creek • Rivers to Watch Next Weekend – Withlacoochee Last Updated: 7/5/2021 6:39 AM National Weather Service – Tampa Bay Tornado Threat Tropical Storm Elsa Through 7 AM Tuesday 7 AM Tuesday – 7 AM Wednesday ▪ The threat for isolated tornadoes is common with Tropical Storms. ▪ The darker green areas show where this isolated tornado threat is expected. Threat expands north Mainly through the ▪ Beginning in SW FL late Late period tonight and expanding Tonight north through Tues/Tues Night Last Updated: 7/5/2021 6:39 AM National Weather Service – Tampa Bay Tropical Storm Elsa – Prepare for These Possible Impacts National Weather Service – Tampa Bay (Ruskin) – Greatest Impacts will be mostly on Tuesday Wind Flooding Rain Surge Tornado • 2-4” with 4-6” possible near coast • 40 to 60 mph, especially at coast • Salt water flooding of low-lying areas • Potential for rivers to enter Minor • Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts • Damage to unanchored mobile and roads near the coast and bays, Flood stage with a few reaching • A few locations could see roofs homes, porches, carports especially at times of high tide Moderate Flood stage peeled off buildings, mobile homes • Large broken tree limbs and shallow • Moderate to locally major beach • Small streams, creeks, canals, and pushed off foundations, and large rooted trees blown down erosion ditches overflow. tree tops and branches snapped off • Few impassable roads • Strong rip currents • Storm drains & retention ponds over- • Isolated power and communication • Scattered power outages – worse • Minor to locally moderate damage to flow. Flood waters may prompt a few disruptions with above ground lines marinas, docks, and piers evacuations and road closures Last Updated: 7/5/2021 6:39 AM National Weather Service – Tampa Bay Key Take-Aways Tropical Storm Elsa ▪ Rain from Elsa will likely put some/many rivers in Minor Flood with a few reaching Moderate Flood ▪ Above normal tides combined with heavy rain could flood coastal roads Tuesday into Wednesday • Strongest winds will be along the beaches • Saturated soils can make trees more prone to toppling under TS level winds. TRACK INTENSITY Last Updated: 7/5/2021 6:39 AM National Weather Service – Tampa Bay National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area (Ruskin) Next Briefing: Monday 1:00 PM ET Method: Webinar www Web: http://weather.gov/tampabay Facebook: NWSTampaBay Twitter: NWSTampaBay YouTube: NWSTampa For the latest graphics and information go to: www.hurricanes.gov or https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=tbw.
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