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“Foresight and Risk Assessment (Based on Scenarios) of Increasing Extreme Poverty from the COVID-19 Pandemic at National, Regi

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“Foresight and Risk Assessment (Based on Scenarios) of Increasing Extreme Poverty from the COVID-19 Pandemic at National, Regi UNDER THE SUPERVISION OF THE MINISTRY OF LABOUR & SOCIAL AFFAIRS “Foresight and risk assessment (based on scenarios) of increasing extreme poverty from the COVID-19 Pandemic at national, regional and local level in relation to job loss” Athens, September 2020 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION - OBJECTIVE OF THE RESEARCH ...................................................................... 6 1 BIBLIOGRAPHY AND DEFINITIONS ..................................................................................... 9 1.1. Global Poverty ........................................................................................................... 9 1.1.1. Basic needs ...................................................................................................... 10 1.1.2. The state of poverty in Europe ........................................................................ 10 1.2. The problem of the working poor ........................................................................... 12 1.3. COVID-19 and Poverty ............................................................................................. 14 1.4. The case of Greece .................................................................................................. 16 2. ANALYSIS OF POVERTY DATA .......................................................................................... 19 2.1. Guaranteed Minimum Income ................................................................................ 19 2.1.1. Basic facts ........................................................................................................ 19 2.1.2. Density of EEE end recipients .......................................................................... 19 2.2. Effects of pandemic Covid-19 on salaried employment ......................................... 22 2.3. Impact of pandemic Covid-19 on registered unemployment ................................. 28 2.4. Foresight parameters .............................................................................................. 31 3. FORESIGHT ....................................................................................................................... 39 3.1. Estimating the evolution of poverty: literature review ........................................... 39 3.2. Scenarios of evolution of poverty in Greece ........................................................... 40 3.2.1. Scenario building philosophy........................................................................... 40 3.2.2. Scenarios.......................................................................................................... 42 3.2.3. Detailed results by Municipality ...................................................................... 60 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................... 80 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................ 81 ANNEX ..................................................................................................................................... 84 [2] List of Tables Table 1: Income limits for the risk of poverty or social exclusion per European country for a household that includes 2 adults and 2 children under 14 years in indicative years (in euros). ................................................................................................................................................. 11 Table 2: Additional number of people in poverty due to 20% reduction in income as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic .......................................................................................................... 15 Table 3: Parameters for the grouping (clusters) of Municipalities.......................................... 37 Table 4: Summary diagnostics ................................................................................................. 37 Table 5: Descriptive elements of clusters................................................................................ 38 Table 6: Analysis of variance ................................................................................................... 38 Table 7: Forecasts of critical measures related to poverty ..................................................... 39 Table 8: Model characteristics of Scenario 0 .......................................................................... 44 Table 9: Model characteristics of Scenario 1 .......................................................................... 47 Table 10: Model characteristics of Scenario 1 (ILO, BLS) ........................................................ 50 Table 11: Model characteristics of Scenario 2 (ILO, BLS) ........................................................ 52 Table 12: Model characteristics of Scenario 3 (ILO, BLS) ........................................................ 55 Table 13: Model characteristics of Scenario 4 (ILO, BLS) ........................................................ 57 Table 14: Model characteristics of Scenario 5 (ILO, BLS) ........................................................ 60 Table 15: Foresight results for Cluster 2.................................................................................. 69 List of Figures Figure 1: Foresight results for the increase in extreme poverty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. ................................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 2: Foresight results for the increase in extreme poverty due to the COVID-19 pandemic (continued). ............................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 3: Share of employed persons at risk of poverty, 2018 data ....................................... 13 Figure 4: Percentage of employed persons at risk of poverty, data for EU (blue curve for the EU of 27 countries and orange for the EU of 19 countries) and for Greece (green curve) ..... 14 Figure 5: Risk of poverty and social exclusion ......................................................................... 17 Figure 6: Risk of poverty and unemployment by region ......................................................... 18 Figure 7: Density of EEE end recipients. Analysis of registry of 15/02/2020 .......................... 20 Figure 8: Employment status of EEE end recipients ................................................................ 21 Figure 9: Educational level of EEE end recipients.................................................................... 21 Figure 10: Age group of EEE end recipients ............................................................................ 22 Figure 11: Hirings-firings of salaried employment, first 7-month period 2018-2019 ............. 23 Figure 12: Hirings-firings of salaried employment, first 7-month period 2018-2020, by month ................................................................................................................................................. 23 Figure 13: New salaried jobs, first 7 months of 2018-2020, by sector (single-digit codification by STAKOD 08) ......................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 14: New salaried jobs, first 7 months of 2018-2020, by region ................................... 25 Figure 15: New salaried jobs, first 7 months of 2018-2020, by Regional Unit ........................ 26 Figure 16: Municipalities with losses of more than 1,000 new jobs, first 7 months of 2018-2020 ................................................................................................................................................. 27 Figure 17: Characteristics of new salaried jobs, first 7 months of 2018-2020 (age and sex) .. 28 [3] Figure 18: Registered unemployment figures for the first 5 months of the years 2018-2020, country totals .......................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 19: Registered unemployment figures for the first 5 months of the years 2018-2020, regions ..................................................................................................................................... 30 Figure 20: Registered unemployment figures for the first 5 months of the years 2018-2020, Regional Units .......................................................................................................................... 30 Figure 21: Registered unemployment figures for the first 5 months of the years 2018-2020, Municipalities .......................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 22: Unemployed registered for EEE as a share of the total registered unemployed (dRk/dRt) by Municipality, February 2020. ............................................................................. 32 Figure 23: Changes in the number of the unemployed [dMF(2020,2019)] by Municipality, February-May 2019-2020 ........................................................................................................ 33 Figure 24: High-risk jobs (dHr) by Municipality ....................................................................... 34 Figure 25: Medium-risk jobs (dMr) by Municipality ................................................................ 35 Figure 26: Low-risk jobs (dLr) by Municipality........................................................................
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