FLOOD REPORT FOR

– July 1, 2014 09:00

Strong wind warnings are in effect today for Lake , Lake Manitoba, , Lake , and Lake of the Woods. Winds are expected to lessen tomorrow.

Significant overland flooding is occurring in the Parklands region and Southwest region of Manitoba.

Flood - Assiniboine River, from - Gopher Creek Near Virden Warning*: Shellmouth Dam to Brandon - Roaring River at - All points along the Winnipeg - McKinnon Creek Near River System, including McCreary Nutimik Lake - Scissor Creek Near McCauley - Lake St. Martin - Little Souris River Near - Dauphin Lake Brandon ’Appelle River - Qu - Epinette Creek Near Carberry - Vermillion River Near Dauphin - Graham Creek Near Melita - Wilson River Near Dauphin - Little Saskatchewan River - Valley River Near Dauphin Near Rivers - Medora Creek near - Smith Creek - Gainsborough Creek Near - Cutarm Creek Lyleton - Silver Creek - Pipestone Creek - Elgin Creek - Medora Creek

Flood - Lake Manitoba Watch*: - Lake Winnipeg

High Water - All points along the Red River Advisory*: - All points along the Saskatchewan River - All points along the Souris River

Summary  Significant overland flooding is occurring in the Parklands and Southwest regions of Manitoba. High flows are being reported on small streams and tributaries in these areas, ’Appelle, and Souris Rivers. as well as on larger rivers such as Assiniboine, Qu

 Today, Environment has issued a gale wind warning for the north basin of Lake Winnipeg, and a strong wind warning for the south basin of Lake Winnipeg, Lake Manitoba, , and Lake of the Woods. o On Lake Winnipeg (north basin) today, north winds at 65 km/hour gusting to 85 km/hour. Winds are expected to drop to 45 km/hour this afternoon and further diminish later this evening. o On Lake Winnipeg (south basin) today, north winds at 55 km/hour gusting to 75 km/hour. Winds are expected to drop to 45 km/hour this evening and further diminish overnight. o On Lake Manitoba today, northwest winds at 55 km/hour gusting to 75 km/hour. Winds are expected to drop to 40 km/hour this evening and further diminish overnight. o On Lake Winnipegosis today, north winds at 55 km/hour will shift to northwest winds at 20 km/hour and diminish to light winds tomorrow morning. o On Lake of the Woods northwest winds at 40 km/h will decrease to 30 km/hour this evening and then shift to come from the north tomorrow morning. For more information: http://weather.gc.ca/marine/region_e.html?mapID=04

 ’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre reports Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation the wind forecast for tomorrow results in a moderate wind warning for the south shore of Lake Winnipeg and a low wind warning for the south shoreline of Lake Manitoba. The winds could increase water levels by up to two feet in these locations and result in low to moderate wave action on southern and south eastern shorelines.

Weather  ’s This weekend storm system extended into Monday with some additional precipitation in many areas. Yesterday Brandon received approximately 14 mm, Dauphin 3.8 mm, Melita 12 mm. Winnipeg received 3.0 mm, Gimli 5.6 mm, 8.4 mm and the Whiteshell Provincial Park 15 mm.

 The low pressure system is moving eastward today, in many areas of the province strong winds will be out the north or northwest with gusts above 50 km/hour.

 A summary of precipitation received for the month of June and during the June 27-30 storm is provided below:

Approximate total precipitation (mm) Month of June June 27-30 Brandon 251 mm 138 mm Dauphin (June 28 no data) 128 mm 49 mm Melita 152 mm 100 mm Gimli 118 mm 62 mm Winnipeg 147 mm 35 mm Roblin 133 mm 73 mm (June 27-29) The Pas (June 30 no data) 116 mm 27 mm (June 27-29)

 Most of Manitoba will experience warmer weather and sunny conditions beginning either today or tomorrow. There is a possibility of some precipitation on Friday and Saturday in many areas of southern Manitoba.

Red River  The Red River Floodway gates began operation under Rule 1 this morning starting at 8:30 AM. The Floodway is being operated so that water levels on the river upstream of the floodway inlet remain below natural levels.

 The Red River is rising at all points in Manitoba but is beginning to decline upstream, in the U.S.A. portion of the basin. The Red River at James Avenue in downtown Winnipeg is at 17.5 feet today and is forecasted to remain stable for the next few days because of Rule 1 Floodway operation and then decrease. The river at James Avenue is forecasted to stay above 14 feet until mid July.

Assiniboine River  There is overbank flooding in the Assiniboine River valley in all reaches between the Shellmouth Dam and Brandon. High flows are reported on the Assiniboine River tributaries and most tributaries are continuing to rise due to the recent precipitation.

 An updated forecast for the Assiniboine River has been prepared based on the recent precipitation. o Brandon is forecasted to peak at approximately 34,000 cfs on or around July 11, 2014, this translates into a water level of approximately 1182 ft, 2.5 feet below the ’s permanent flood protection dikes top of Brandon . o Inflow to the Portage Reservoir is forecasted to peak at approximately 35,000 to 40,000 cfs on approximately July 14, 2014. Operation scenarios for the Portage Diversion are being evaluated.

 The water level on the Shellmouth Reservoir has increased to 1,411.5 feet; the summer target level is 1402.5 feet and the crest of the spillway is at 1408.5 feet. Inflows to the reservoir are approximately 6,750 cfs today; outflows from the reservoir are approximately 4,600 cfs. Outflows include 1,060 cfs of conduit flow and 3,540 cfs of spillway flow. Shellmouth Dam is forecasted to receive peak inflow of 11,000 to 12,000 cfs on or around July 6, 2014, the reservoir level is forecasted to peak at approximately 1414 feet on or around July 8, 2014.

 ’Appelle River is experiencing extremely high flows; the flow The Qu on the river recorded at Welby, Saskatchewan yesterday set a new record at over 15,000 cfs. This flow is to be confirmed, a manual metering indicated a lower flow. Flows on the ’Appelle River upstream in Saskatchewan are beginning to decline but may remain Qu high for a long period of time.

 The Portage Diversion is in operation to divert flows on the Assiniboine River over 10,500 cfs. Flow on the Assiniboine River upstream of the Portage Diversion is 13,320 cfs, flow on the Portage Diversion is 2,770 cfs and flow on the Assiniboine River downstream of the diversion is 10,550 cfs.

Souris River  The Souris River basin received a significant amount of precipitation from the recent storm. This has resulted in overland flooding in many areas and high flows on streams and drains as well as the Souris River.

 Flows on the Souris River at Melita increased by 7,910 cfs to 10,790 cfs, flows at the town of Souris increased by 2,060 cfs to 9,175 cfs, and flows at Wawanesa increased by 3,050 cfs to 11,400 cfs.

 ’s An updated forecast for the Souris River was released today and is provided in today flood sheet. The Souris River is expected to rise: at Melita by 0.3 to 0.8 feet, at Souris by ’s 1.6 to 3.1 feet, and at Wawanesa by 0.4 to 1.5 feet, above this morning levels.

Parkland Region  Flows on many of the rivers and streams in the reached record levels due to the recent precipitation event. Some streams, such as the Wilson, Turtle and Vermillion Rivers, have crested and are beginning to drop, while other streams, such as the Valley, North Duck and Overflowing Rivers are continuing to rise.

 Flows on tributaries to Dauphin Lake are high due to the recent precipitation. The water level gauge on Dauphin Lake is reporting a water level of 858.5 feet; however, strong north winds are affecting the water level on the lake and causing a lower reading at the – gauge. The forecasted peak water level on Dauphin Lake is 860.0 860.4 feet, due to the effects of the recent precipitation event. Flood stage on Dauphin Lake is 858 feet and the summer target level is 855 feet.

Manitoba Lakes  The Lake Manitoba water level this morning was at approximately 813.7 feet at the Steeprock gauge, while the water level at the Westbourne gauge was 814.3 feet. These water levels are affected by the recent strong winds. The forecasted peak water level on Lake Manitoba is being re-evaluated, to account for the effects of the recent precipitation event.

 The Fairford River Water Control Structure is being operated for maximum possible discharge; outflow from Lake Manitoba is approximately 11,290 cfs. The flow this morning has decreased from yesterday because the strong north winds are forcing the lake water to the south and decreased the water level near the Lake Manitoba outlet, thereby decreasing outflow. The estimated natural outflow from Lake Manitoba at the current lake level, if the Fairford River Water Control Structure and associated channel ’t been constructed, is approximately 5,500 cfs. improvements hadn

 Lake Manitoba is currently approximately 1.8 feet below unregulated levels (the levels that would have occurred in the absence of all provincial water control infrastructure) because of the high outflows out of the Lake through the Fairford River Water Control Structure. The actual outflows have been higher than what the natural outflows would have been for all of 2014, and also in previous years.

 The Lake St. Martin gauge is registering a real-time water level reading of 803.8 feet, the winds are affecting the water level on the lake and causing a higher reading at the gauge. The forecasted peak lake level is being re-evaluated to account for the effects of the recent precipitation event.

 Work to initiate the re-opening of the Lake St. Martin Emergency Outlet Channel will begin tomorrow. Operation of the Lake St. Martin Emergency Channel will increase outflow from Lake St. Martin, directly lowering levels, and allow the Fairford River Water Control Structure to remain at maximum discharge longer, thus allowing for higher outflows from Lake Manitoba later in the year.

 The initial discharge through the Lake St. Martin Emergency Outlet Channel will be approximately 5,600 cfs. The channel is expected to stay open until the spring of 2015, and will help bring the Lake St. Martin water level below 801 feet by October 31, 2014.

 Lake Winnipeg is at a wind-eliminated water level of 715.6 feet, and Manitoba Hydro`s latest forecasts are that it will rise to 716.1 feet by late July. The water level regulation range for Lake Winnipeg is between 711 and 715 feet. Manitoba Hydro is operating its structures at the outlet of Lake Winnipeg to allow for maximum possible outflow from the lake.

Eastern Region  The Winnipeg River system is experiencing very high flows due to significantly higher than normal precipitation in eastern Manitoba and northern-western Ontario.

 Nutimik Lake, which is part of the Winnipeg River system, is at 908.5 feet, a record high level. Dorothy and Eleanor Lakes, which are downstream from Nutimik Lake, are also experiencing high water levels and some overland flooding. Some boat houses are being flooded and some sandbagging is underway. Manitoba Hydro forecasts that the ’s level Winnipeg River could rise by 0.9 to 1.2 feet from today in the next two weeks.

 Natalie Lake, at Pointe du Bois is being maintained at 897 feet.

The Pas and  The flow on the Saskatchewan River at The Pas today is 64,690 cfs. The forecast for the Saskatchewan River is being re-evaluated to take into account the recent precipitation event.

 The flow on the Carrot River at Turnberry in Saskatchewan increased by 910 cfs, and the water level rose by over 2 ft. The forecast for the Carrot River is being re-evaluated to take into account the recent precipitation event.

 Cormorant Lake is at 844.6 feet this morning. The forecasted peak water is being re- evaluated to take into account the recent precipitation event.

*Definitions Flood Warning: A flood warning is issued when river or lake levels are exceeding or are expected to be exceeding flood stage within the next 24 hours.

Flood Watch: A flood watch is issued when river or lake levels are approaching and likely to reach flood stage, but likely not within the next 24 hours.

High Water Advisory: A high water advisory is issued when a heavy storm or high flows are expected and may cause water levels to rise, but not necessarily reach flood stage. A high water advisory can be an early indicator for conditions that may develop into a flood watch or flood warning.