MALAWI Food Security Update May 2009
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MALAWI Food Security Update May 2009 • The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security’s (MoAFS’s) second Figure 1. Current estimated food security round agricultural production estimate, released in mid-May, put conditions, May 2009 maize production at 3.66 million MT, a 32 percent increase over last year’s final estimate and 57 percent higher than the five-year average. If confirmed in the final round estimates, this level of production will result in a maize surplus of slightly above one million MT. In the absence of exports or significant procurements by the NFRA and/or ADMARC, prices of maize are likely to remain low owing to the huge supply situation. • Food security across the country has improved with the arrival of the new harvest, and most households now have access to their own produced food. However, for parts of the Lower Shire, this access will be short-lived and moderate levels of food insecurity are expected to persist, as production in the area was compromised by poor rains during the growing season. • Local market maize prices continue to drop as new crops enter the market and more people start to depend on own-produced food, thereby reducing market demand for maize. The majority of markets recorded maize price decreases in May, and the percentage price decreases between April and May were also higher this year than last year at the same time. Local market maize prices were generally higher in the north, where harvesting starts later than in the other Source: FEWS NET regions. Despite a Government of Malawi (GoM)-announced minimum For more information on the FEWS NET food buying price for maize in April, farm gate prices are much lower this insecurity severity scale, see www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale year than at the same time last year due to bumper production. Seasonal calendar and critical events Source: FEWS NET Malawi FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Malawi 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Tel: +265.1.754.892 publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Washington DC 20006 [email protected] for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] www.fews.net/malawi MALAWI Food Security Update May 2009 Food security overview Food security across Malawi continues to Table 1. Comparison of households without own-produced food and improve as new crop harvests continue. The local market maize prices majority of households are now mostly %HH without own %HH without own Average maize produced food in produced food in prices in April 2008 Average maize prices dependent on their own food production for District April 2008 April 2009 (MK/Kg) in April 2009 (MK/Kg) household consumption, resulting in a decrease Chitipa <1 <1 36 33 Karonga <1 <1 32 25 in the number of households without own- Rumphi 4 <1 43 28 produced food (Table 1). Mzimba 2 1 47 25 Nkhatabay 3 <1 37 28 Likoma 7 3 However, food security in the Lower Shire’s Kasungu 9 2 34 27 Nkhotakota <1 <1 35 24 Nsanje and Chikwawa districts is different, as Salima 4 <1 30 20 Ntchisi 11 3 43 26 the number of households without own Dowa 6 3 37 25 produced food in these areas is much higher Mchinji 2 <1 27 22 Lilongwe <1 <1 39 30 than elsewhere, due to the poor season the Dedza 3 <1 34 30 area experienced. Indeed, farmers in large Ntcheu 2 2 34 35 Balaka 3 1 32 30 areas of central Chikwawa and parts of Mangochi <1 <1 31 30 northern Nsanje did not harvest any maize, as Machinga 6 3 32 30 Zomba 1 2 31 30 the crop was destroyed by a prolonged dry spell Blantyre 3 2 38 35 between February and March. The effects of Mwanza 3 <1 31 35 Neno <1 <1 30 35 the dry spell were most severe in Chikwawa. Chiradzulu 2 2 30 30 Thyolo 1 1 28 25 Mulanje 3 <1 28 25 All other districts in the country indicated that Phalombe 3 <1 27 30 current food security conditions this year are Chikwawa 3 12 25 30 Nsanje 9 23 26 35 significantly better than last year and the past Source: MoAFS/FEWS NET two to three years. District agricultural officials indicate they do not foresee food insecurity beyond the ‘normal’ chronic levels among poor households. Most of these districts expect even the poor to have own-produced food until the last quarter of the consumption year (around January 2010), as opposed to the usual period of October. In Chikwawa and parts of Nsanje districts, where crop production prospects are poor for a second consecutive season, some households are facing continued food insecurity for the second year. A rapid assessment of the situation by the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) in mid-April indicated significant needs for these areas. The final report containing the details of the assessment results is yet to be released, though the information is urgently needed for decision making with respect to response options in the affected areas. Given current conditions in the Lower Shire, the MoAFS has intensified winter crop production campaigns in areas with residual moisture or those with access to land along the Shire River. Unfortunately, due to low rainfall in the area, some wetlands which would have been cultivated during the winter season cannot be planted this year, due to lack of residual moisture. Both the GoM and some non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have supplied free seed to some farmers for winter planting in the area, though the needs are greater than what has been provided. Elsewhere across the country, intensification of winter cropping is being encouraged, and farmers’ responses are encouraging, as they expect to earn more income from selling green maize and other crops, mostly vegetables. Winter maize in many parts of the country is sold green instead of being harvested dry, due to the relatively higher incomes that can be realized from sales of green maize. It is mostly the last of the winter crop, planted in September/October, which is left to dry and used for food during the lean period of January and February. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 MALAWI Food Security Update May 2009 Seasonal progress Outcome of the 2008/09 agricultural season The MoAFS released second round agricultural production estimate figures in mid-May. Due to overall favorable climatic conditions during the 2008/09 production season, and increased use of fertilizer and hybrid seed, crop production this season is projected to be higher than last season (Table 2). Maize production is estimated at 3.66 million MT, an increase of 32 percent over last year’s final estimate and 57 percent higher than the five year average. If accurate, this level of production will result in a maize surplus of slightly above one million MT. Table 2. Comparison of national crop production estimates Comparison: Comparison: 5 Year 2008/09 and 2008/09 and CROP 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 R2 Average Average 2007/08 MAIZE 1,608,349 1,225,234 2,611,486 3,444,655 2,777,438 3,661,732 2,333,432 57% 32% RICE 49,693 41,270 91,450 113,166 114,905 131,058 82,097 60% 14% GROUNDNUTS 153,414 141,078 203,071 273,757 260,573 282,605 206,379 37% 8% TOBACCO 106,187 93,598 121,600 117,412 160,238 192,516 119,807 61% 20% COTTON 53,581 50,363 58,569 63,290 76,761 67,098 60,513 11% -13% SORGHUM 40,905 18,175 54,309 63,698 61,999 58,612 47,817 23% -5% MILLET 17,349 15,970 27,037 32,251 31,869 26,671 24,895 7% -16% PULSES 242,364 209,492 344,586 415,551 396,868 481,992 321,772 50% 21% CASSAVA 2,532,079 2,197,640 2,832,141 3,285,127 3,539,660 3,786,630 2,877,329 32% 7% S. POTATOES 1,762,034 1,081,463 1,781,595 2,307,354 2,362,425 2,634,978 1,858,974 42% 12% I. POTATOES 420,590 404,420 527,831 594,003 673,344 768,315 524,038 47% 14% Source: MoAFS However, the outlook is less optimistic in the Lower Shire districts of Nsanje and Chikwawa, where prolonged dryness, which lasted for almost a month and two months, respectively, damaged crops, including maize, sorghum, millet, and cotton. The dry spell adversely affected crop production in the area, particularly cotton, sorghum, and millet, as the main production area for these crops were most affected by the dry spell. If these estimates are validated in the final round of production figures (which is based on actual weighing of sample plots to determine yield), Malawi will have a significant surplus this year. Currently, the MoAFS is selling subsidized pesticides to encourage farmers to store their maize properly and to minimize post-harvest losses due to weevil infestation. Initial indications are that a lot of farmers are buying these pesticides to protect their crop. In addition to the pesticides, the MoAFS is intensifying campaigns to encourage farmers to store enough food for their own consumption and to only sell the remaining surplus. These campaigns began in response to reports last year that farmers were selling off large amounts of maize, due to high prices, at the expense of household food security, as they were buying maize on the market later in the year at twice the price they sold it.