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Mah Sing Group COMPANY U PDAT E Wednesday, May 05, 2021 FBMKLCI: 1,588.25 Sector: Property THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* Mah Sing Group Bhd TP: RM1.27 (+27.2%) Last Traded: RM1.00 Second Land Acquisition in 2021 BUY (ESG: ★★★★ ) Thiam Chiann Wen Tel: +603-2167 9615 [email protected] www.taonline.com.my Buys Land in Setapak Share Information Mah Sing’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Nova Century Development Sdn Bhd, has Bloomberg Code MSGB MK Stock Code 8583 signed a sale and purchase agreement to acquire a parcel of leasehold land Listing Main Market measuring 5 acres at Tempat Jalan Genting Kelang, Setapak, KL from Teratai Share Cap (mn) 2,427.7 Constructors Sdn Bhd for a purchase consideration of RM89mn. Market Cap (RMmn) 2,427.7 52-wk Hi/Lo (RM) 1.47/0.42 12-mth Avg Daily Vol ('000 shrs) 33,183.8 A Matured Neigbourhood with Ready Amenities Estimated Free Float (%) 49.1 Beta 1.4 The land is located within the vicinity of matured neighbourhoods such as Major Shareholders (%) Danau Kota, Desa Setapak, Setapak Jaya, Wangsa Maju, Taman Melati, Tan Sri Dato' Sri Leong Hoy Kum - 34.3 Titiwangsa and Setiawangsa. Located just 6.6km away from KLCC, the land PNB - 12.6 EPF - 4.9 enjoys excellent connectivity via Jalan Genting Kelang, Middle Ring Road 2, KWAP - 4.6 Duke Expressway, Jalan Tun Razak as well as the Setiawangsa-Pantai Expressway, which is currently under construction. In terms of public Forecast Revision transportation, the land is only 2.1km away from Wangsa Maju LRT Station and FY21 FY22 2.2km away from Sri Rampai LRT Station – see Appendix 1 . Forecast Revision (%) 0.0 0.0 Net profit (RMmn) 230.3 285.9 Consensus 220.8 268.7 Within 5km of the land, there are ready amenities like Giant Hypermarket TA's / Consensus (%) 104.3 106.4 Setapak, NSK Wangsa Maju, Setapak Central Mall, Alpha Angle Shopping Previous Rating Buy (Maintained) Centre, Dataran Wangsa Melawati, Wangsa Walk Mall and Aeon Big Wangsa Financial Indicators Maju, as well as healthcare institutions namely Columbia Asia Hospital and FY21 FY22 Tuanku Mizan Military Hospital. Meanwhile, the land is also surrounded by 8 Net gearing (%) 1.5 Net Cash CFPS (sen) 3.3 9.4 public schools, a special education school and 2 higher learning institutions. P/CFPS (x) 30.0 10.7 ROE (%) 6.5 7.7 Mixed Development Worth RM618mn GDV ROA (%) 3.1 3.4 NTA/Share (RM) 1.5 1.6 Based on preliminary plans, the mixed development, dubbed M Astra, will Price/ NTA (x) 0.7 0.6 comprise 2 blocks of serviced suites. M Astra will offer 3-bedroom and 4- bedroom units, with indicative built-up ranging from 850 sqft to 1,030 sqft. Share Performance (%) Aligned with Mah Sing’s current strategy of focusing on affordable high-rises in Price Change MSGB FBM KLCI 1 mth 16.3 0.2 the central business district areas, the project will be affordably priced with 3 mth 23.5 0.2 indicative starting price from RM399k/unit. In addition, this proposed mixed 6 mth 7.5 8.4 12 mth 135.3 15.4 development will also feature some retail lots with plans to accommodate drive-through F&B outlets. (12-Mth) Share Price relative to the FBMKLCI Spanning over a development period of 4 years, M Astra is expected to yield a GDV of RM618mn. Management expects to launch a preview of this project with registration of interest targeted to be in the third quarter of 2021. Positive on the Deal Based on the estimated GDV of RM618mn, the land cost makes up 14.4% of the total development value. As the land cost to GDV ratio comes below the Source: Bloomberg general rule of thumb of 20%, we deem the acquisition price reasonable. The proposed acquisition augurs well for the group as it is in line with Mah Sing’s focus to acquire prime land in strategic location especially in the Klang Valley. We continue to see strong demand for affordable homes in the urban Page 1 of 5 5-May-21 areas. For instance, M Adora in Wangsa Melawati (3km from the new land) achieved a healthy take-up of 73% in less than 10 months from launch. Given the similar characteristics such as strategic locations with ready amenities and infrastructure, we anticipate M Astra to replicate the success of M Adora. At an indicative selling price of RM469psf onwards, M Astra is competitively priced as compared with the new launches (exclude RUMAHWIP) in Setapak such as Kenwingston Platz and EdgeWood Residences, which are priced from RM585psf and RM517psf respectively – see Figure 1 . Figure 1: Price Comparison for Projects in Setapak Platinum Platinum Kenwingston Developer SkyWorld SkyWorld SkyWorld Mah Sing Victory Victory S/B SkyAwani 3 SkyAwani 4 Vista Danau Kota Kenwingston EdgeWood Project PV18 Residence M Astra (RUMAHWIP) (RUMAHWIP) (RUMAHWIP) Platz Residences Land Tenure Leasehold Leasehold Leasehold Leasehold Freehold Leasehold Leasehold Land Size (Acres) 4.55 5.57 4.73 3.72 2.65 3.79 5.00 Launch date 2017 2018 2019/2020 2020 2020 2021 2021/2022 Completion 2021 2021 2023 2025 2023 2024 2025 Total Units 1,905 852 1,782 910 849 960 1,400 Density (unit/acre) 419 153 377 245 320 253 280 Built up from (sf) 800 1021 800 810 650 865 850 Price from RM300,000 RM473,000 RM300,000 RM300,000 RM380,000 RM447,000 RM399,000 Price psf RM375 RM463 RM375 RM370 RM585 RM517 RM469 Source: iProperty, PropertyGuru, Propsocial, Propwall, respective companies’ website Impact No change to our FY21-23 earnings forecasts for now pending the completion of the acquisition. In terms of funding, we believe Mah Sing’s healthy balance sheet with cash balance of RM1.2bn as at Dec-20 (net gearing 0.25x if perpetual securities are treated as debt), should provide financial flexibility for future land acquisition. Valuation We maintain Mah Sing as Buy with a SOP-derived target price of RM1.27. We value the group’s property and other existing businesses at CY22 P/B ratio of 0.45x (1.25 SD below its 5-year mean of 0.74x) and glove business at CY22 P/E ratio of 10x. Figure 2: Sum of Parts Valuation Amount (RM mn) Existing Business (0.45x CY22 PB) 1,634.1 Gloves (10x CY22 PE) 1,523.4 Proceeds from Redeemable Convertible Sukuk 100.0 SOP Valuation 3,257.5 Enlarge share cap (mn)* 2,560.1 Target Price (RM) 1.27 *Assuming full converstion of Redeemable Convertible S ukuk Source: TA Research Page 2 of 5 5-May-21 Appendix 1: Location of the Land Source: Mah Sing Appendix 2: Land Deal for 2021 Purchase Purchase Land Land size GDV Date of consideration consideration cost/GDV Location announcement (Acres) (RM'mil) RM/sf (RM'mil) (%) 21-Feb-21 Sepang 100.0 95.8 22.0 656 14.6 4-May-21 Setapak 5.0 89.0 408.6 618 14.4 184.8 1274 Source: Mah Sing [THE REMAINING OF THIS PAGE IS INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK] Page 3 of 5 5-May-21 Earnings Summary Profit and Loss (RM'mn) Balance Sheet RM'mn) FYE Dec 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F FYE Dec 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Revenue 1789.7 1530.8 2201.4 2432.5 2951.0 PPE 225.7 242.0 285.6 346.2 422.7 COGS (1274.1) (1166.7) (1541.0) (1702.7) (2065.7) Land held for dev 1750.4 1791.7 1799.8 1807.9 1816.0 Gross profit 515.6 364.1 660.4 729.7 885.3 Prepaid lease payments 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 Investment Properties 214.4 231.9 231.9 231.9 231.9 EBITDA 287.9 203.7 402.1 479.1 593.8 Others 150.8 174.2 174.2 174.2 174.2 Depreciation (16.4) (39.2) (16.4) (19.4) (23.5) LT Assets 2345.8 2443.9 2495.5 2564.2 2648.7 Amortisation (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) EBIT 271.4 164.4 385.7 459.7 570.3 Property dev. Cost 1531.6 1560.5 1705.6 1862.9 2029.8 Finance cost (1.2) (10.8) (10.6) (11.5) (12.2) Inventories 763.3 754.4 1055.5 1073.0 1301.7 PBT 270.2 153.7 375.0 448.2 558.0 Trade & other receivables 963.4 940.0 1206.2 1266.2 1536.2 Cash & Cash equivalent 1063.5 1156.0 1507.1 1891.7 2088.2 Tax (67.6) (49.6) (90.0) (107.6) (133.9) Others 8.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 MI (2.3) (3.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 ST Assets 4330.0 4422.1 5485.7 6105.0 6967.1 Net profit 200.3 100.4 285.0 340.6 424.1 Core Net profit^ 148.3 67.6 230.3 285.9 369.3 Total Assets 6675.8 6866.0 7981.2 8669.2 9615.8 Core EPS (sen) 6.1 2.8 9.5 11.8 15.2 Trade and other payables 1149.5 1249.4 1809.4 1999.3 2425.5 DPS (sen) 3.4 1.7 4.0 5.5 6.5 ST Borrowings 122.0 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 Others 14.8 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 ST Liabilities 1286.2 1289.3 1849.3 2039.2 2465.4 Cash Flows (RM'mn) 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F PBT 270.2 153.7 375.0 448.2 558.0 LT Borrowings 444.9 1200.7 1543.8 1801.3 2016.0 Depr & Amort 16.4 39.2 16.4 19.4 23.5 Others 118.3 134.6 134.6 134.6 134.6 Tax (67.6) (49.6) (90.0) (107.6) (133.9) LT Liabilities 563.2 1335.3 1678.3 1935.9 2150.6 Others 196.7 159.4 (152.5) (44.9) (239.3) CFO 415.7 302.7 149.0 315.2 208.3 Share Cap 1776.1 1776.1 1776.1 1776.1 1776.1 Reserves 1712.9 1664.4 1821.8 2007.6 2258.5 Capex (331.6) (130.4) (68.1) (88.1) (108.1) Shareholder's Funds 3489.0 3440.4 3597.9 3783.6 4034.6 Others (28.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Holders of Perpetual Sukuk 540.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CFI (360.4) (130.4) (68.1) (88.1) (108.1) Holders of Perpetual Securities 789.4 789.4 844.2 898.9 953.7 MI 8.0 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 Net Addition/Rpmt 369.2 312.3 343.0 257.5 214.7 Dividend Paid (61.0) (30.2) (72.8) (100.1) (118.3) Liabilities + Equities 6675.8 6866.0 7981.2 8669.2 9615.8 Others (818.1) (80.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 CFF (509.9) 201.2 270.2 157.4 96.3 Ratios 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F EPS Growth (%) (26.8) (54.4) 240.4 24.2 29.2 Net Cash Flow (454.5) 373.4 351.1 384.5 196.5 PER (x) 16.4 35.9 10.5 8.5 6.6 GDPS (sen) 3.4 1.7 4.0 5.5 6.5 Div Yield (%) 3.4 1.7 4.0 5.5 6.5 Net gearing (x) Net cash 0.0 0.01 Net cash Net cash ROE (%) 4.2 2.0 6.5 7.7 9.4 Assumptions 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F ROA (%) 1.6 0.4 3.1 3.4 4.0 Sales Assumptions 1500 1100 1600 1800 1800 NTA (RM) 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 Prop Dev Margins 18.0 17.3 12.2 13.5 17.5 P/NTA (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 ^ Core Net Profit excludes fair value gains and distribution to perpetual sukuk and securities holders Page 4 of 5 5-May-21 (THIS PAGE IS INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK) Stock Recommendation Guideline BUY : Total return within the next 12 months exceeds required rate of return by 5%-point.
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