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Mah Sing Group Bhd TP: RM1.07 (+17.6 %) Last Traded: RM0.91 Rd 3 Land Acquisition for 2019 Buy

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Mah Sing Group Bhd TP: RM1.07 (+17.6 %) Last Traded: RM0.91 Rd 3 Land Acquisition for 2019 Buy COMPANY U PDAT E Wednesday, August 07, 2019 FBMKLCI: 1, 611.79 Sector: Property THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* Mah Sing Group Bhd TP: RM1.07 (+17.6 %) Last Traded: RM0.91 rd 3 Land Acquisition for 2019 Buy Thiam Chiann Wen Tel: +603-2167 9615 [email protected] www.taonline.com.my Buying 4.5 acres of leasehold land in Wangsa Melawati for RM62.0mn Share Information Mah Sing announced that it had entered into a sale and purchase agreement with Bloomberg Code MSGB MK Stock Code 8583 KLFA Properties Sdn Bhd for the proposed acquisition of a parcel of leasehold Listing Main Market land in Wangsa Melawati, Setapak, Kuala Lumpur, measuring approximately 4.5 Share Cap (mn) 2,427.7 Market Cap (RMmn) 2,197.1 acres for RM62.0mn (or RM315psf). Note that the land is purchased with the 52-wk Hi/Lo (RM) 1.32/0.89 benefit of approved development order for residential development. 12-mth Avg Daily Vol ('000 shrs) 961.4 Estimated Free Float (%) 34.2 Beta 0.81 Located in Matured Neighbourhood Major Shareholders (%) The land is 900m on foot from the Wangsa Maju Mall’s covered walkway to Sri Tan Sri Dato' Sri Leong Hoy Kum - 35.0 EPF - 8.7 Rampai LRT Station. Furthermore, the land is also surrounded by the highly Lembaga Tabung Haji - 5.8 populated and established neighborhoods such as Lembah Keramat, Wangsa KWAP - 5.0 Maju, Desa Setapak, Setapak Jaya, Setiawangsa, Ukay Perdana and KL East. Located 9km away from KLCC, the project is only 800m from MRR2 with easy Forecast Revision FY19 FY20 access to Duke (3km), Jalan Ampang (5km), Jalan Genting Kelang (3km) and Jalan Forecast Revision (%) 0.0 0.0 Tun Razak (8km). In terms of public transportation, the land is within 2.3km from Net profit (RMmn) 212.0 216.8 Wangsa Maju LRT station and 2.5km from Sri Rampai LRT station. Consensus 212.4 223.6 TA's / Consensus (%) 99.8 96.9 Previous Rating Buy (Maintained) High-rise residential development worth RM378mn GDV Financial Indicators Based on the preliminary plan, the residential development, dubbed M Adora, FY19 FY20 which is planned to be affordably priced, will offer two blocks of residential Net gearing (x) net cash net cash condominium units with indicative built up from 850 sq. ft., and priced from CFPS (sen) 27.2 9.8 P/CFPS (x) 3.3 9.2 RM468k/unit. M Adora will have a North-South orientation, which enables the ROE (%) 6.0 5.9 purchasers to enjoy unblocked KLCC views and scenic view of Genting Highland. ROA (%) 3.0 2.9 NTA/Share (RM) 1.5 1.5 Spanning over a development period of 4 years, M Adora is expected to yield a Price/ NTA (x) 0.6 0.6 GDV of RM378mn. Management expects to launch a preview of this project in 4Q19. Share Performance (%) Price Change MSGB FBM KLCI 1 mth (0.5) (4.2) Positive on the land acquisition for future growth 3 mth (5.7) (1.7) 6 mth (4.7) (4.8) We are positive on the deal as it is in line with the group’s focus to acquire prime 12 mth (27.0) (10.0) land in strategic location especially in the Klang Valley. The 3rd acquisition for this year will increase the group’s landbank to 2,108.6 acres with total remaining (12-Mth) Share Price relative to the FBMKLCI GDV and unbilled sales of RM26.2bn. Based on the estimated GDV of RM378mn, the land cost (including development charges) makes up 16% of the total development value. As the land cost to GDV ratio comes below the general rule of thumb of 20%, we deem the acquisition price reasonable. We expect this development to replicate the group’s existing project such as M Vertica in Cheras and M Centura in Sentul, which have been well-received by the first time home buyers, working professionals, young families and home upgraders seeking to live close to the city centre. At an indicative selling price Source: Bloomberg of RM550psf onwards, we believe the project is competitively priced as compared with the new launches in Wangsa Maju such as Henna Residences and Sunway Avila which are priced from RM550psf and RM600psf respectively. Page 1 of 4 7-Aug-19 Impact No change to our FY19-21 earnings forecasts for now pending more information from management. In terms of funding, we believe Mah Sing’s strong balance sheet with cash balance of RM1.3bn as Mar-19, should provide financial flexibility for this land acquisition and future landbanking. Valuation We maintain our Buy recommendation with an unchanged target price of RM1.07/share, based on unchanged target average blended CY20 PE/PB of 10x/0.8x Appendix 1: Location Map Source: Mah Sing Page 2 of 4 7-Aug-19 Appendix 2: Artist Impression of the Project Source: Mah Sing Page 3 of 4 7-Aug-19 Earnings Summary Profit and Los s (RM'mn) Balance S heet RM'mn) FYE Dec 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F FYE Dec 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F Revenue 2915.8 2192.9 2290.3 2381.7 2388.3 PPE 155.9 227.4 217.6 208.7 200.6 COGS (2154.1) (1542.4) (1603.2) (1667.2) (1671.8) Land held for dev 1482.2 1619.8 1635.4 1643.4 1651.5 Gross profit 761.7 650.6 687.1 714.5 716.5 Leasehold land 5.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 Investment Properties 227.8 228.5 228.5 228.5 228.5 EBITDA 493.0 392.0 420.9 430.2 429.7 Others 148.7 174.1 174.1 174.1 174.1 Deprecia tion (16.4) (13.5) (19.7) (18.9) (18.1) LT Assets 2020.2 2254.6 2260.4 2259.5 2259.5 Amortisa tion (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) EBIT 476.5 378.4 401.1 411.3 411.5 Property dev. Cost 2139.5 1749.2 1821.8 1901.4 1988.8 Finance cost (4.3) (10.1) (4.6) (5.1) (5.7) Inventories 629.0 731.3 131.8 137.0 137.4 PBT 472.3 347.6 396.6 406.2 405.9 Trade & other receivables 1121.7 946.0 784.4 815.7 817.9 Cash & Cash equivalent 1216.2 1220.5 2155.8 2672.2 3223.1 Ta x (113.1) (77.0) (95.2) (97.5) (97.4) Others 13.5 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 MI 2.7 1.0 (7.9) (10.5) 0.0 ST Assets 5120.0 4654.8 4901.7 5534.2 6175.2 Net profit 302.8 190.1 212.0 216.8 227.0 Normalised Net profit 302.8 190.1 212.0 216.8 227.0 Total Assets 7140.2 6909.4 7162.1 7793.8 8434.7 EPS (sen) 12.6 7.9 8.8 9.0 9.4 Trade and other payables 1524.3 1395.8 1066.7 1109.3 1112.4 DPS (sen) 6.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 ST Borrowings 143.4 121.3 121.3 121.3 121.3 Others 37.7 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 ST Liabilities 1705.4 1539.6 1210.5 1253.1 1256.1 Cash Flows (RM'mn) 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F PBT 472.3 347.6 396.6 406.2 405.9 LT Borrowings 638.0 443.0 813.8 1184.5 1604.2 Depr & Amort 16.5 13.6 19.8 18.9 18.1 Others 149.1 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.1 Ta x (113.1) (77.0) (95.2) (97.5) (97.4) LT Liabilities 787.2 546.1 916.9 1287.7 1707.4 Others (9.8) 353.1 359.4 (73.6) (87.0) CFO 365.8 637.2 680.5 254.0 239.6 Share Cap 1773.3 1776.1 1776.1 1776.1 1776.1 Reserves 1682.7 1712.9 1834.6 1961.0 2097.6 Ca pex (266.6) (287.1) (25.6) (18.1) (18.1) Shareholder's Funds 3456.0 3489.0 3610.6 3737.0 3873.7 Others (56.7) (34.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Holders of P erpetua l S ukuk 540.0 540.0 576.6 613.2 649.9 CFI (323.4) (321.7) (25.6) (18.1) (18.1) Holders of P erpetua l S ecurities645.2 789.4 834.2 879.1 923.9 MI 6.4 5.3 13.2 23.7 23.7 Net Addition/Rpmt 336.4 297.1 370.8 370.8 419.7 Dividend P aid (117.5) (81.3) (90.4) (90.4) (90.4) Liabilities + Equities 7140.2 6909.4 7162.1 7793.8 8434.7 Others (0.4) (485.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 CFF 218.5 (269.3) 280.4 280.4 329.4 Ratios 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F E P S Growth (% ) 0.1 (25.0) 8.1 1.6 3.4 Net Cash Flow 261.0 46.2 935.4 516.4 550.9 PER (x) 7.2 11.5 10.3 10.1 9.6 GDPS (sen) 6.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 Div Yield (%) 7.2 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 Net g ea ring (% ) 3.0 Net Ca sh Net Ca sh Net Ca sh Net Ca sh ROE (%) 9.0 5.5 6.0 5.9 6.0 Assumptions 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F ROA (%) 4.5 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.8 Sales Assumptions 1802 1503 1520 1610 1690 NTA (RM) 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 Prop Dev Margins 17.1 15.1 16.5 16.6 17.0 P/NTA (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Stock Recommendation Guideline BUY : Total return within the next 12 months exceeds required rate of return by 5%-point.
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