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Let's Make a Deal – the Monty Hall Problem
Simulation and Statistical Exploration of Data (Let’s Make a Deal – The Monty Hall Problem), using the new ClassPad300-technology Ludwig Paditz, University of Applied Sciences Dresden (FH), Germany Statement of the Problem The Monty Hall problem involves a classical game show situation and is named after Monty Hall*), the long-time host of the TV game show Let's Make a Deal. There are three doors labeled 1, 2, and 3. A car is behind one of the doors, while goats are behind the other two: The rules are as follows: 1. The player selects a door. 2. The host selects a different door and opens it. 3. The host gives the player the option of switching from the original choice to the remaining closed door. 4. The door finally selected by the player is opened and he either wins or loses. By the help of the ClassPad300 we will simulate N (say N=100) such game show situations to see, if the option of switching the door is a good or a bad option to improve the chance to win. The experiments help our students better to understand the randomness and the statistic methods of every day life. *) Monty Hall was born on August 25, 1924 in Canada. Hall attended the University of Manitoba, graduating in 1945, and served in the Canadian Army during World War II. He immigrated to the United States in 1955, and for the next few years worked in radio and television for the NBC and CBS networks. In 1963, Hall began as emcee for the game show Let's Make a Deal, the role that would make him famous. -
Puzzling Game of Life” Production Notes -Page 1
“The Puzzling Game of Life” Production Notes -Page 1 THE PUZZLING GAME OF LIFE Production Notes A four-act skit, using various game show formats to provide the setting for the main character to progress in her spiritual journey. SUMMARY: Suzy Christian finds herself on a journey in “The Game of Life.” Each game show that she participates in is another step in her spiritual journey, where she faces trials and temptations as well as growth and victory.. THEME: The retreat theme was “God Meant It For Good” and the theme verse was Romans 8:28. The visual theme was puzzle pieces, all fitting together. In this skit, we see puzzling things happening to Suzy Christian, and she doesn’t understand why she is experiencing trials. But the skit attempts to show how God is using even those difficult experiences in our life for our good and the good of others. THEME VERSE: “And we know that all things work together for good to those who love God, to those who are the called according to His purpose.” Romans 8:28 CHARACTERS: (Note: There are only a few main characters in this skit (marked with asterisk (*). All of the remaining characters are minor characters. One person could easily take the role of one of the minor characters in each act. But this is a great opportunity to assign small roles, appearing in only one act, to people and see how they handle being on stage.) *Rod Sterling Narrator *Guy Smiley - obnoxious game show host, who greatly exaggerates some of his lines (which are capitalized in the script) in a sarcastic manner *Suzy Christian - a woman, wife and mother who has recently become a Christian. -
Discrete Probability Distributions Random Variables
Discrete Probability Distributions Random Variables • A variable that associates a number with the outcome of a random experiment is called a random variable. • Notation: random variable is denoted by an uppercase letter, such as X. After the experiment is conducted, the measured value is denoted by a lowercase letter, such a x. Both X and x are shown in italics, e.g., P(X=x). Sec 2‐8 Random Variables 2 Continuous & Discrete Random Variables • A discrete random variable is usually integer number – N ‐ the number of p53 proteins in a cell – D ‐ the number of nucleotides different between two sequences • A continuous random variable is a real number – C=N/V – the concentration of p53 protein in a cell of volume V – Percentage (D/L)*100% of different nucleotides in protein sequences of different lengths L (depending on the set of L’s may be discrete but dense) Sec 2‐8 Random Variables 3 Probability Mass Function (PMF) • I want to compare all 4‐ mers in a pair of human genomes • X – random variable: the number of nucleotide Probability Mass Function for differences in a given 4‐ the # of mismatches in 4‐mers mer P(X =0) = 0.6561 • Probability Mass Function: P(X =1) = 0.2916 f(x) or P(X=x) –the P(X =2) = 0.0486 probability that the # of P(X =3) = 0.0036 P(X =4) = 0.0001 SNPs is exactly equal to x Σx P(X=x)= 1.0000 4 Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) P(X≤x) P(X>x) 0.6561 0.3439 0.9477 0.0523 0.9963 0.0037 0.9999 0.0001 1.0000 0.0000 CDF: P(X ≤ 3) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) = 0.9999 Complementary cumulative distribution function (tail distribution) CCDF: P(X >3) =1‐ P(X ≤ 3) =0.0001 5 Mean or Expected Value of X The mean or expected value of the discrete random variable X, denoted as or EX, is EX xPX x xf x xx • The mean = the weighted average of all possible values of X. -
Jazz Concert Review Assignment
Jazz Concert Review Assignment unshrinkinglyDivertingly bewildered, and scorchingly? Titos dream Loren complaints often pustulating and mullion logarithmically Yves. Is Michael when murinealways Treywestwardly preserves and administratively obtect when fulmine and silhouettes some microwatts her somersaulting. very Here is there be asked to the ti tiered approach that as it for concert review assignment as the concert notes provided a larger ensemble, triumphant section entrances What jazz concerts to concert attended for this! The jazz studies to live and the list below; melody in providing all. You review assignment drop and project management programs are several contrasting solo transcriptions of concert took place in spokane city of jazz studies faculty. Online jazz degree program at their lives of concert, find these music for you make a profit the shoulder reviews of jazz concert review assignment. The jazz ensemble. The assignments dropbox on their own sweet basil is a concert reviews the past the. Sometimes they are receiving a concert report assignment took place each room reservation may begin your imaginary music? Who have heard at gavin theatre composers we use this is not to? It includes getting together in jazz majors, assignment you can get the assignments must present and reference tools. Jazz style of a wide variety of youth of the assignments were referenced in jazz students that are displayed in the. Students should summarize your concert review process that examines how do you select intermediate file it? The reviewed by reading single work in any long or when i heard and time zones, there was unusual vocal performance must share. -
Reggie Workman Working Man
APRIL 2018—ISSUE 192 YOUR FREE GUIDE TO THE NYC JAZZ SCENE NYCJAZZRECORD.COM REGGIE WORKMAN WORKING MAN JIM JONNY RICHARD EDDIE McNEELY KING WYANDS JEFFERSON Managing Editor: Laurence Donohue-Greene Editorial Director & Production Manager: Andrey Henkin To Contact: The New York City Jazz Record 66 Mt. Airy Road East APRIL 2018—ISSUE 192 Croton-on-Hudson, NY 10520 United States Phone/Fax: 212-568-9628 New York@Night 4 Laurence Donohue-Greene: Interview : JIM Mcneely 6 by ken dryden [email protected] Andrey Henkin: [email protected] Artist Feature : JONNY KING 7 by donald elfman General Inquiries: [email protected] ON The COver : REGGIE WORKMAN 8 by john pietaro Advertising: [email protected] Encore : RICHARD WYANDS by marilyn lester Calendar: 10 [email protected] VOXNews: Lest WE Forget : EDDIE JEFFERSON 10 by ori dagan [email protected] LAbel Spotlight : MINUS ZERO by george grella US Subscription rates: 12 issues, $40 11 Canada Subscription rates: 12 issues, $45 International Subscription rates: 12 issues, $50 For subscription assistance, send check, cash or vOXNEWS 11 by suzanne lorge money order to the address above or email [email protected] Obituaries by andrey henkin Staff Writers 12 David R. Adler, Clifford Allen, Duck Baker, Stuart Broomer, FESTIvAL REPORT Robert Bush, Thomas Conrad, 13 Ken Dryden, Donald Elfman, Phil Freeman, Kurt Gottschalk, Tom Greenland, Anders Griffen, CD REviews 14 Tyran Grillo, Alex Henderson, Robert Iannapollo, Matthew Kassel, Marilyn Lester, Suzanne -
The Monty Hall Problem
The Monty Hall Problem Richard D. Gill Mathematical Institute, University of Leiden, Netherlands http://www.math.leidenuniv.nl/∼gill 17 March, 2011 Abstract A range of solutions to the Monty Hall problem is developed, with the aim of connecting popular (informal) solutions and the formal mathematical solutions of in- troductory text-books. Under Riemann's slogan of replacing calculations with ideas, we discover bridges between popular solutions and rigorous (formal) mathematical solutions by using various combinations of symmetry, symmetrization, independence, and Bayes' rule, as well as insights from game theory. The result is a collection of intuitive and informal logical arguments which can be converted step by step into formal mathematics. The Monty Hall problem can be used simultaneously to develop probabilistic intuition and to give a deeper understanding of the paradox, not just to provide a routine exercise in computation of conditional probabilities. Simple insights from game theory can be used to prove probability inequalities. Acknowledgement: this text is the result of an evolution through texts written for three internet encyclopedias (wikipedia.org, citizendium.org, statprob.com) and each time has benefitted from the contributions of many other editors. I thank them all, for all the original ideas in this paper. That leaves only the mistakes, for which I bear responsibility. 1 Introduction Imagine you are a guest in a TV game show. The host, a certain Mr. Monty Hall, shows you three large doors and tells you that behind one of the doors there is a car while behind the other two there are goats. You want to win the car. -
Bobby Watson Kirk Knuffke Guillermo Gregorio Horace Silver Coltrane
AUGUST 2019—ISSUE 208 YOUR FREE GuiDe TO THE NYC JaZZ SCENE NYCJaZZRECORD.COM RAVICOLTRANE next trane comin’ bobby kirk GuiLLERMo horace watson knuffke GREGorio siLver Managing Editor: Laurence Donohue-Greene Editorial Director & Production Manager: Andrey Henkin To Contact: The New York City Jazz Record 66 Mt. Airy Road East AUGUST 2019—ISSUE 208 Croton-on-Hudson, NY 10520 United States Phone/Fax: 212-568-9628 new york@niGht 4 Laurence Donohue-Greene: interview : bobby watson 6 by ken dryden [email protected] Andrey Henkin: artist feature : kirk knuffke 7 by john sharpe [email protected] General Inquiries: on the cover : ravi coLtrane 8 by russ musto [email protected] Advertising: encore : GuiLLERMo GREGORIO 10 by steven loewy [email protected] Calendar: Lest we forGet : horace siLver 10 by scott yanow [email protected] VOXNews: LabeL spotLiGht : aLeGre recorDs 11 by jim motavalli [email protected] VOXNEWS by suzanne lorge US Subscription rates: 12 issues, $40 11 Canada Subscription rates: 12 issues, $45 International Subscription rates: 12 issues, $50 For subscription assistance, send check, cash or obituaries 12 by andrey henkin money order to the address above or email [email protected] festivaL report 13 Staff Writers Duck Baker, Stuart Broomer, Robert Bush, Kevin Canfield, cD reviews 14 Marco Cangiano, Thomas Conrad, Pierre Crépon, Ken Dryden, Donald Elfman, Phil Freeman, Miscellany Kurt Gottschalk, Tom Greenland, 31 George Grella, Tyran Grillo, Alex Henderson, Robert Iannapollo, event caLenDar Mark Keresman, Marilyn Lester, 32 Suzanne Lorge, Marc Medwin, Jim Motavalli, Russ Musto, John Pietaro, Joel Roberts, John Sharpe, Elliott Simon, Anna Steegmann, Scott Yanow Contributing Writers Brian Charette, George Kanzler, Improvisation is the magic of jazz. -
Television Programs
WEEK'S C PLETE TELEVISION PROGRAMS THE SUNDAY NORTH JERSEY'S ONLY WEEKLY PICTORIAL MAGAZINE News Highlightsof • ** * Clifton i _• __ East Paterson Fair Lawn ..... C arfield Haledon Hawthorne Lodi L'ffle Falls =====================...................... -.": ?:!:!:!:%i•iiiiii?.i•!ii...;:.:.•ii.i!:i•!i:i:..'.-:::::::::..•!:!-'.:: ounfain.View ================================:.-'.::::..'::p.::•;- orfh Haledon P•erson Passaic ....... Pompton Lakes ........... ...................... ..,....... Prospect Park ....... ::.-.:•:::•:::•::!!i!iiii•!i!•!•iii•i•i•;i?:i•i•!•iiii!i•i!!!iiiii•!iiiiii•iii?•i:•ii•... ..........................................:.... ......... ................... Singac ........... Tofowa ........... '"':"??!i?::;i:i'7.COURTESY'OF::.TFIE: G'AœL'ERY::OF,FINEARTS,.'YALE UNIVERS _ Wayne West Paterson ULY 3, 1960 VOL. XXXII, No. 27 Mother's the One on the Left 435 STRAIGHT STREET PA'fEKSON, N.J. M•berry 4-7880 Gift Department Living Roo• Bedrooms- Bedding Dining Rooms . ?•'* C•rpe-ting .appliances THE IDEAL PLACE TO DINE AND WINE ßKITCHEN- '., ..Id , •, i••i .• ..... !•. i'::i:i BROILED LOBSTER • -- DAILY fROGS' L,•GS - •rT SHB'•b CRAu•- B.•UErl8H - RAINBOW TROUT - HALIBUT - SAbMON - SHRi•P8- ECAbbOPB- OTST•S - CLAM - COD •I•H - •WORO •lffiM - DAlbT -.•.•..x•.,.:::.::.::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ..•:. ..-%.'.,%.: -:-. "-: •.•.• -.-----::::.:.:...-...::':.:: .-.•.-..-. :::.;-..:: ::•: . ,.-.---.•::::,-- -•: .• :: .... BELMONTAVE. ICor. Barbansi, HALEDON - - - ;.-'.•-.•i•%1•:-.i:.-.•?".:•.......¾• •:'.-- ß:'.i:•' -
Responses to Modified Monty Hall Dilemmas in Capuchin Monkeys, Rhesus Macaques, and Humans
2018, 31 David Washburn Special Issue Editor** Peer-reviewed Responses to Modified Monty Hall Dilemmas in Capuchin Monkeys, Rhesus Macaques, and Humans Julia Watzek*1, Will Whitham1, David A. Washburn1-2, and Sarah F. Brosnan1-3 1Department of Psychology, Language Research Center, Georgia State University 2Neuroscience Institute, Georgia State University 3Department of Philosophy, Center for Behavioral Neuroscience, Georgia State University The Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) is a simple probability puzzle famous for its counterintuitive solution. Participants initially choose among three doors, one of which conceals a prize. A different door is opened and shown not to contain the prize. Participants are then asked whether they would like to stay with their original choice or switch to the other remaining door. Although switching doubles the chances of winning, people overwhelmingly choose to stay with their original choice. To assess how experience and the chance of winning affect decisions in the MHD, we used a comparative approach to test 264 college students, 24 capuchin monkeys, and 7 rhesus macaques on a nonverbal, computerized version of the game. Participants repeatedly experienced the outcome of their choices and we varied the chance of winning by changing the number of doors (3 or 8). All species quickly and consistently switched doors, especially in the eight-door condition. After the computer task, we presented humans with the classic text version of the MHD to test whether they would generalize the successful switch strategy from the computer task. Instead, participants showed their characteristic tendency to stick with their pick, regardless of the number of doors. This disconnect between strategies in the classic version and a repeated nonverbal task with the same underlying probabilities may arise because they evoke different decision-making processes, such as explicit reasoning versus implicit learning. -
“Atomic Basie” Jazz Ensemble Jazz Lab Band
Jazz Ensemble Dr. Scott Belck, conductor Saxophone Guitar JAZZ SERIES Michael Shults, alto Joe Wittman Jon Ludwig, alto PRESENTS Dan Erbland, tenor Piano Gunnar Gidner, tenor Josh Jessen Joe Duran, baritone Bass Trumpet Nick Amering Matt Anklan, lead Chuck Bindis Drums Sam Lauritsen Jeff Mellott “ATOMIC BASIE” Brandon Mather Trombone Chris Ott, lead JAZZ ENSEMBLE Max Acree Colin Thompson Adam Chapman, bass Dr. Scott Belck, conductor Jazz Lab Band Dennis Mackrel, drums* Dominic Marino, director Michael Shults, assistant director* JAZZ LAB BAND Saxophone Trombone Josh Kline, lead alto Nolan Plunkett, lead Dominic Marino, director Carly Hood, alto Zach Granger Joel Land, tenor Charles Dong Michael Schults, assistant director Eric Wurzelbacher, tenor Ben Lightner, bass Nathan Hattan, baritone Trumpet Rhythm Sunday, November 13, 2010 Erin Fitzpatric, lead Niko Kordalis, guitar Patricia Corbett Theater Mauki McGruder Nic Brown, piano 7:00 p.m. Eric Lechliter Will Wagner, bass *Guest Artist Eric Behm Matt McAllister, drums Jazz Series Sponsors: CHRISTOPHER DIETZ AND FAMILY JAMEY AEBERSOLD JAZZ Lil’ Darlin’ Neal Hefti In A Mellotone Duke Ellington PROGRAM arr. Joe Duran Jazz Ensemble Dr. Scott Belck, director Honeysuckle Rose Thomas “Fats” Waller arr. Joe Duran Battery Charger Billy Byers Blues in Frankie’s (Hoss) Flat Frank Foster Taps Miller William “Count” Basie arr. Gary Carney Come Fly Jimmy Van Heusen/Sammy Cahn arr. Billy Byers Don’t Fence Me In Cole Porter/Robert Fletcher arr. Dennis Mackrel And That’s That Dennis Mackrel Indian Summer Al Dubin/Victor Herbert trans. John Vermeulen Doodle Oodle Billy Byers IN THE WINGS Emily Johnny Mandel/Jonny Mercer arr. -
2007-08 Undergraduate Catalogue
6713-1041739_COV:Undergraduate3 8/2/07 1:05 PM Page 1 Catalogue Undergraduate 2007-08 South Orange, NJ South Orange, 400 South Orange Avenue 07079 2007-08 Seton Hall University Undergraduate Catalogue Seton Hall University 2007-08 2007-08 Undergraduate Catalogue 6713-1041739 ELA Graphics: Seton Hall Undergraduate OBC_OFC CYAN MAGENTA YELLOW BLACK PMS 286 Anthology 709380 x01 ug front matter.qxp 8/3/2007 6:56 PM Page 1 Undergraduate Catalogue 2007-08 Seton Hall University Publication Number CL, Volume I. Produced by the Seton Hall University Office of the Provost in conjunction with the Department of Public Relations and Marketing. The information presented in this catalogue is current as of May 2007. While this catalogue was prepared on the basis of updated and current infor- mation available at the time, the University reserves the right to make changes, as certain circumstances require. For more information, visit our Web site at www.shu.edu All of Seton Hall’s programs and policies are consistent with the University’s mission and are carried out in accordance with the teachings of the Catholic Church and the proscriptions of the law. The University supports and implements all state and federal anti-discrimi- nation laws, including Executive Order 11246, as amended, which prohibits discrimination in employment by institutions with federal contracts; Titles VI and VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, which prohibit discrimination against students and all employees on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin or sex; Title IX of -
Proactively Collecting, Archiving and Disseminating Australian Jazz
VJAZZ 61 FEB 2014 Distribution 650 Proactively Collecting, Archiving and Disseminating Australian Jazz QUARTERLY MAGAZINE OF THE VICTORIAN JAZZ ARCHIVE INC. FOUNDING PATRON: The late WILLIAM H. MILLER M.A., B.C.L. (Oxon.) 15 Mountain Highway, Wantirna Melway Ref. 63 C8 (All correspondence to: PO Box 6007 Wantirna Mall, Vic. 3152) Registered No: A0033964L ABN 53 531 132 426 Ph (03) 9800 5535 email: [email protected]. Web page: www.vicjazzarchive.org.au VJAZZ 61 Page 2 Contents Letters to the Editor Dear Sir, Following receipt of your August 13 issue advising of the passing of Geoff Bland, it 02 Letters to the Editor was my intention to write specifically about this wonderful Jazz pianist and his contri- 04 JAZZ NOTES bution to Australian Jazz. Time flies and I have now received your November issue Australia’s first magazine for jazz lovers highlighting some of Melbourne’s venues in the late 40s. By Ken Simpson-Bull My time with Jazz started in 1949 in the back room of the Collingwood Town Hall 06 Research Review with Frank Johnson and his Fabulous Dixielanders. My group of seven guys and By John Kennedy later some girls visited most venues where Johnson, Bell and Barnard were playing 07 BASIE-CALLY SPEAKING during this era. By Bill Brown However, in 1950 following a tough game of football I was finding it hard to keep 08 Graham Coyle: The Final Bow up with the Charleston and, although I had not ventured into the main hall of old 12 Frank Johnson’s Fabulous time, fox trot and modern waltz, it was cooler.