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Paint Sector 1 September 2020

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Paint Sector 1 September 2020 Institutional Equities Paint Sector 1 September 2020 The sector which keeps on giving growth Vishal Punmiya In recent times, growth in India’s paint sector has been an outlier in the overall domestic Research Analyst consumer space. The industry has been witnessing a gradual shift in terms of consumer [email protected] preferences from the traditional whitewash to better quality paints. Besides, it is also witnessing +91-22-6273 8064 healthy competitive environment, where players are applying different strategies to tap the growing demand in the market for a larger regional share. Additionally, rise in disposable income of the average middle class, urbanization, growing rural market, shortening of repainting cycle, upgradation, increase in sale of premium-end products and launch of many innovative products are the major drivers that are pushing the growth of the organized paint industry. Within the Indian decorative paint segment, Asian Paints (APNT) and Berger Paints (BRGR) are the two largest players with more than 80% of their overall revenues coming from the segment and within the industrial paints segment, Kansai Nerolac (KNPL) is the leader (segment contributes ~45% to its revenue). Since in the current environment there is a preference for businesses that are relatively more resilient, sector multiples at current levels in near term will look expensive. We initiate coverage on APNT (Accumulate rating) and BRGR (Sell rating), as we believe that Indian decorative paints will continue to witness higher demand within this space, majorly led by steady shift from unorganized to organized players with bigger players gaining further share. Leaders continue to maintain share even as new players have entered in an oligopolistic market: Organized domestic decorative paints industry is a comfortable oligopoly with a few big players (Asian Paints, Berger, Kansai Nerolac and Akzo Nobel), constituting bulk of the segment, with strong entry barriers such as distribution network and brand equity. The industry has demonstrated consistent pricing discipline and has not seen mutually destructive price wars, discounting etc. Thus, every company has co-existed with its own specific niche – regional strength, expertise in particular product sub-segment etc. Initiating Coverage Initiating Although new players have entered the market over the last decade, existing players have strengthened their distribution network, focused on capacity building and introduced innovative products & services to help them fortify their market standing across regions. Domestic decorative paints putting on a good show in a tough environment: Over the years, the segment has been driven by urbanization, shortening of re-painting cycle and industry initiatives in terms of reach expansion and introduction of variety of products. In recent times, the industry has been witnessing a gradual shift in consumer’s preference from the traditional whitewash to better quality ‘value for money (VFM)’/’bottom of pyramid (BOP)’ paints, especially in the tier II/III/IV cities. Growth prospect for these products (mainly putty, distemper, lower end enamels) is strong in the near term for the listed paint majors. Besides, the industry is witnessing healthy competitive environment, where players are applying different strategies to tap the growing demand in the market for a larger regional share. Additionally, rise in disposable income of the average middle class, urbanization, growing rural market and launch of many innovative products (like eco-friendly, odour free and dust & water-resistant paints) are other major drivers that are propelling the organized industry growth. Benign cost environment in near term: The Indian paint industry is a raw-material oriented industry. The primary cost being crude and its derivatives. Amid the tight business conditions, the soft price trend in raw materials has been a beneficial factor for companies. Notwithstanding the sharp depreciation in the exchange rate, overall material prices have been lower even on a sequential basis. This has helped improve the gross margins for the entire coatings business in India as well as the International markets. In addition, the cost control measures, especially in the area of selling & distribution and admin expenses should help negate some of the adverse impact of lower topline in FY21 for Indian paint companies. Sector view: Demand conditions for the industry has improved progressively since May’20 driven by demand in upcountry markets, but sporadic lockdowns in various states might cause some hiccups. Tier II/III/IV cities will continue to do well and even metros and tier I cities are expected to bounce back both for decorative and other segments as well. Since in the current environment there is a preference for businesses that are relatively more resilient, sector multiples at current levels in near term will look expensive. We initiate coverage on APNT (Accumulate rating) and BRGR (Sell rating) as we believe these are fundamentally strong businesses in the domestic decorative space. Mcap Upside/ P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) Company Rating CMP (Rs) TP (Rs) Downside Rsbn $bn (%) FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E APNT Accumulate 1,822 25 1,899 2,080 10 68 51 44 42 34 30 24 28 29 BRGR Sell 522 7 538 500 -7 76 57 48 46 36 31 24 27 28 Source: Companies, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Institutional Equities Table of Content Industry overview …………………..….……..………………………..….……..………...03 Demand drivers of decorative segment…………….…………………..….…………….11 Key players in the decorative segment...…………..………………..…….……….……18 Foraying into adjacencies…………….…..……..……….………………….……….……20 Raw material centricity…….…….…….…….……..……………………..….……………22 Capacity expansion during the recent years.…..…......…......…......…......…..........…24 Key risks to the sector…………..……………………..….……….…….…….…….…….25 Key highlights from recent channel checks.......……….………………….……….……26 Comparison of top paint companies in decorative segment.…………….……….……27 Sector view....……….…..……………………..…………..……….…….…….…….…….28 Companies Asian Paints Ltd…. ………………………………………………………………..………33 Berger Paints Ltd..………………………………………….……...………………………63 2 Paints Sector Institutional Equities Industry overview I. Global picture As against the global paints and coatings industry, which generates revenue of ~US$160bn, the Indian paint industry is valued at ~US$7.1bn as on FY20. Asia Pacific (APAC), the world’s largest coatings market with 45% market share and valued at US$71bn+ in 2019, has been growing faster than the global and matured markets on account of relatively higher growth in the economy, especially in China and India. China is the largest part of the APAC market, comprising nearly 60% of volume and value. Including the next two largest markets, India and Japan, the top three markets account for over 80% of the volume and value of the APAC region. Exhibit 1: Global: APAC shares 45% of market share Exhibit 2: APAC: Top 3 countries demand 80% of market share Latin America 7% Others 14% US and Korea 6% Canada 18% Asia Pacific 45% Japan 8% China 60% EMEA 30% India 12% Source: PPG investor presentation, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Industry, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research India, APAC’s second largest coatings market, is dominated by the decorative segment with ~75% market share. This is unlike the global and APAC markets’ structure where decorative segment (architectural) contributes less than 40%. Industrial paint’s lower contribution in India’s overall paint market is probably attributable to lower industrial and infrastructure development compared to other matured countries and developing countries like China, and higher technical know-how required in the industrial paint segment, which in turn leads to negligible involvement of unorganized players and thus a lower market size. Globally, the top 10 companies dominate the market with more than 50% market share. However, APAC and China remain fragmented with regional and international players co-existing in these markets. The Indian paint market, unlike APAC and China, is an oligopolistic market with the top 4 players controlling a little less than 70% market share of the overall domestic paint industry. Exhibit 3: Industrial paints contribute >60% to the demand Exhibit 4: ….as well as in APAC…. globally…. OEM and Special Purpose Decorative Architectural 36% (incl. general industrial, auto 39% oem, wood, protective, marine etc). 61% Industrial (incl. general industrial, protective, powder, wood, auto oem, marine etc). 64% Source: Sherwin Williams investor presentation, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Source: Coatings World, Industry, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Research 3 Paints Sector Institutional Equities Exhibit 5:… unlike in India where decorative paints have 75% Exhibit 6: Top 10 players have >50% share across the globe demand Sherwin- Industrial (incl. automotive and Williams general oem, protective, powder 13% coatings etc.) 25% PPG 11% Other (>5,000 firms) 49% Akzo Nobel 7% Decorative Nippon 4% 75% RPM 4% BASFAxalta 3% 3% Kansai 3% Jotun 1% Asian Paints 2% Source: Sherwin Williams investor presentation, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Source: Company, Industry, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Research Exhibit 7: APAC’s paint market is highly fragmented as Exhibit 8: ….India’s market which is oligopolistic with top 4 compared to….. players commanding nearly 70% market share Nippon 8% Akzo Nobel Asian Paints
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