EUROPEAN UNION
FROM ZERO TO FIVE GW OFFSHORE WIND OUTLOOK FOR GUJARAT AND TAMIL NADU 2018-2032
2 2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu
FROM ZERO TO FIVE GW
OFFSHORE WIND OUTLOOK FOR GUJARAT AND TAMIL NADU 2018-2032
DECEMBER 2017
THIS REPORT IS CO-FUNDED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION
2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 3 GWEC
4 2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu
THE EUROPEAN UNION
IS A UNIQUE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN 28 EUROPEAN COUNTRIES.
In 1957, the signature of the Treaties of Rome marked the will of the six funding countries to create a common economic space. Since then, first the Community and then the European Union has continued to enlarge and welcome new countries as members. The Union has developed into a huge single market with the euro as its common currency.
What began as a purely economic union has evolved into an organisation spanning all areas, from devel- opment aid to environmental policy. Thanks to the abolition of border controls between EU countries, it is now possible for people to travel freely within most of the EU. It has also become much easier to live and work in another EU country.
The five main institutions of the European Union are the European Parliament, the Council of Ministers, the European Commission, the Court of Justice and the Court of Auditors. The European Union is a major player in international cooperation and development aid. It is also the world’s largest humanitarian aid donor. The primary aim of the EU’s own development policy, agreed in November 2000, is the eradication of poverty.
www.europa.eu
2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 5 Contents
CONTENTS
1 Introduction �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 10
2 Growth of offshore wind �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 12
3 Five key challenges for offshore wind ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 16 1. Complex development process �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 16 2. Levelised cost of energy ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 16 3. Financing ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 17 4. Infrastructure development: Supply chain, ports and grid ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 19 5. Socio-environmental constraints ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 20
4 Five key enablers for offshore wind �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 22 1. De-risk development ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 22 2. Maritime spatial planning ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 22 3. Demonstration projects ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 25 4. Financial support ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 27 5. Long term vision �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 27
5 From Zero to Five GW ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 28
6 Five action items for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 32 1. Clear roadmap ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 32 2. Consenting and permitting clarity �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 32 3. Grid development ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 34 4. Financial support mechanisms �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 34 5. Competence and skill development ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 38
7 Conclusion ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 40
LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES
Figure 1: Growth in cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind in major markets �������������������������������� 12 Figure 2: Estimates of LCOE change for offshore wind ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 14 Figure 3: Stakeholder analysis chart �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 17 Figure 4: Evolution of cost of wind in the UK ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 18 Figure 5: Elements of the supply chain addressed by FOWIND �������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 20 Figure 6: Example of wind resource assessment from Taiwan ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 23 Figure 7: Annual net capacity addition of offshore wind in China ��������������������������������������������������������������������������� 24 Figure 8: Example of spatial planning map from Denmark ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 25 Figure 9: Long term targets and 2016 status of major offshore wind markets ����������������������������������������������� 27
6 2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu Contents
FOWIND focus states in India (for illustrative purposes only)
Figure 10: Forecast of offshore wind capacity by region (DNV GL ETO) �������������������������������������������������������������� 28 Figure 11: Pathways to 5GW installed capacity by 2032 �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 31 Figure 12: High-level formal documentation of stakeholder relationships in a roadmap �������������������������� 33 Figure 13: Developer’s project scope in different countries �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 34 Figure 14: Rate for sale of power in India for different generation sources ����������������������������������������������������� 38 Figure 15: Key reports released by FOWIND �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 40 Figure 16: Timeline of initiatives to achieving 5GW by 2032 ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 41 Table 1: Cumulative offshore wind installations by country (in MWs) ������������������������������������������������������������������ 24 Table 2: Advantages and Disadvantages of support mechanisms used for RE sector ��������������������������������� 36
2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 7 Foreword
FOREWORD
On behalf of the FOWIND consortium, I am delight- Serious medium and long-term planning, and ed to present our latest report: “FROM ZERO TO investment in infrastructure of all kinds, but FIVE GW: Offshore Wind Outlook for Gujarat And especially transmission, ports and rail links will Tamil Nadu (2018-2032)”. This roadmap for the be necessary to turn this into reality. Building a states of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu incorporates the robust national supply chain and the infrastructure learnings from four years of investigation to come will take time. But we are confident of the govern- up with an achievable roadmap for the two states ment’s commitment to the ultimate goal, and we to develop robust, sustainable offshore wind sec- offer this work as a contribution to the partnership tors. It is not a forecast, and may well be exceeded; and cooperation between the public and private but when we look back from 2032, I trust we will sectors which experience in Europe has shown is be able to see how this work has identified both essential for building a healthy, competitive and the main opportunities and challenges of devel- sustainable offshore wind industry. oping an offshore wind sector for India’s transition to a clean energy-based economy. It will require both fortitude and persistence, but we believe the long-term rewards – a very large India’s burgeoning renewable energy industry, led source of indigenous, reliable, clean power to drive by its 4th in the world onshore wind energy sector, India’s economic growth, creating a whole new has many challenges to overcome. The country is in industry with the employment and investment the process of reinventing its power sector in just that it attracts – are worth the effort that will about every way – from the existing system which be required. From the government side the most relies primarily on large centralized power sta- important thing is a clear vision, stable policy, lots tions connected much like an early 20th century of support in the beginning – and patience! telephone system with a central exchange, to one which more closely resembles the internet, with a wide variety of distributed sources of generation Steve Sawyer and intelligently managed demand. This process will take some time, and there will be bumps along the way, but the direction of travel is clear.
Plunging prices for wind and solar PV have grabbed headlines across the world during 2017, as have the very recent precipitous drop in the prices Chair, for offshore wind procured in the last couple of FOWIND Project Executive Committee years, to be delivered primarily after 2020. These and projects will rely to some extent on a new genera- Secretary General, tion of turbines, many of them larger than 10 MW Global Wind Energy Council in size, with rotor diameters well in excess of 150 meters – twice the wingspan of an Airbus 380, and the largest pieces of rotating machinery ever produced, by quite a long way.
8 2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu Foreword
FOWIND BACKGROUND
The consortium led by the Global Wind DISCLAIMER ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Energy Council (GWEC) is implementing This report is provided for the Facilitating Offshore Wind in India illustrative purposes only without Authors (FOWIND) project. Other consortium any representations, warranties Rohit Vivek Gadre (DNV GL), partners include the Centre for Study of or undertakings from GWEC, DNV Shruti Shukla (GWEC) Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), GL or the European Union as to DNV GL, the Gujarat Power Corporation the content or any part of this Reviewers Limited (GPCL), and the World Institute of report and the data contained Steve Sawyer (GWEC), Sustainable Energy (WISE). therein, including without Ruben Menezes (DNV GL) limitation in respect of quality, The National Institute of Wind Energy accuracy, completeness, or Layout Bitter Grafik (NIWE), an autonomous R&D institution reliability. under the Ministry of New and Renewable Cover Photo Stiftung Energy, Government of India, has been a The information contained in Offshore-Windenergie knowledge partner to the project since the report does not represent June 2015. Renew Power Ventures Private endorsement by GWEC, DNV GL Contact Limited, a leading Independent Power or the European Union of any For further information, please Producer in India joined as an industry particular project, product or contact FOWIND Secretariat at partner to the project in June 2016. service provider. By accessing [email protected] the report either in a hard copy or The project seeks to establish structural electronically, users accept that This report is available for collaboration and knowledge sharing neither GWEC, DNV GL nor the download from www.fowind.in between the EU and India on offshore Authors are responsible for any and the websites of respective wind technology, policy and regulation kind of loss or damage resulting project partners. and serve as a platform for promoting from the use of the information offshore wind research and development contained in the report or for any activities. The project focuses on the reliance placed thereon and the states of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu for users further acknowledge that identification of potential zones for de- the content of the report and data velopment through preliminary resource therein are subject to change. and feasibility assessments for future offshore wind developments, as well as Copyright © FOWIND 2017 through techno-commercial analysis and Unless otherwise indicated, preliminary resource assessment. material in this publication may be used freely, shared or reprinted, The project consists of a total of seven but full acknowledgement is work packages. This study has been devel- requested. oped as part of Work Package 7 under the FOWIND work plan. The aim of the study This publication should be cited is to present an informed outlook for the as FOWIND (2017), From Zero to amount of new offshore wind capacity Five GW – Offshore Wind Outlook that can be reliably incorporated into the for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu two state grids, including the regional [2018-2032]. transmission and distributions networks, efficiently and in a planned manner over the next three 5 year plan periods, start- ing in 2018.
2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 9 1. Introduction
1 INTRODUCTION
s a responsible global actor, India made REPORT SCOPE strong commitments under the UN Paris A Climate Agreement and in 2015 announced In line with the forward-thinking approach of the its ambitious renewable energy target for 175 GW MNRE, FOWIND has developed a medium term from renewable energy generation by 2022. This outlook for offshore wind development for the target includes 60 GW from wind energy. states of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. The work done under this report is based on today’s policies, India already has a strong track record and es- market and technology trends along with our tablished industry for onshore wind. Onshore experience with the FOWIND project since 2014. wind holds the largest share of the national RE capacity with almost 33 GW installed at the end of FOWIND conducted and published preliminary fea- September 2017 [1]. This makes India the world’s sibility assessments for the two states in 2015. fourth largest market in terms of installed wind FOWIND also published detailed assessments of generation capacity [2]. the supply chain and ports for the two states in 2016. Recently FOWIND conducted detailed grid In September 2015, India’s Union Cabinet integration assessments in collaboration with the approved the National Offshore Wind Energy states’ utilities (GPCL, GETCO and TANGEDCO) Policy and the Ministry of New and Renewable and published the results in 2017. Energy (MNRE) was authorized as the Nodal Ministry for use of offshore areas within the Our baseline, as explored in the grid integration Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the country for case studies for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, is further promoting the offshore wind sector. The National extrapolated in the work done herein. In summary, Institute of Wind Energy (then known as CWET) the two states can, without any significant costs, became the Nodal Agency for development of integrate approximately 500 MW of new capacity offshore wind energy, with responsibility for from offshore wind through existing grid infra- carrying out allocation of offshore wind energy structure over the 13th plan period (ending in blocks, coordination and allied functions with March 2022). related ministries and agencies [3]. This study further looks into the policy and In November 2017, the MNRE announced its road- regulatory framework aspects of what the two map for ensuring that the 2022 renewable energy states need to do to go from zero to 5GW of target of 175GW from RES is met. Under this plan offshore wind installations over the upcoming plan the MNRE also listed new and innovative options periods out to 2032. The projections draw from the like offshore wind and floating solar as a part of global experience of offshore wind development its broader vision for renewable energy devel- and builds in constraints of the local power sector opment in India. The Ministry has also published a development in India. This is done by identifying state-wise breakup of RES capacity addition plan five global challenges faced by offshore wind out to 2022 [4]. followed by five key enablers that have success- fully spurred the development of offshore wind installations in other markets. The challenges and
10 2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 1. Introduction GWEC/ Schroeder
best practises lead to the development of three wind sector. Including developing a long-term pathways that would lead to Gujarat and Tamil Nadu offshore wind roadmap, clear consenting and having 5GW of offshore wind installations by 2032. permitting procedures, regional and national grid development, financial support mechanisms and The 5GW should not be viewed as the best-case competence/skill development. These are com- assessment, or as a proposed target that the two prehensive themes that need coordinated action states should adopt. Instead, 5GW should serve from a wide range of stakeholders. as indicative guidance that helps to focus the attention of policy makers and private industry The current government is committed to into proactively developing India’s offshore wind leveraging the country’s renewable energy sector along with its entire ancillary infrastruc- resources. The need is clear for policy makers ture and supply chain to scale. and industry actors to deepen this vision, to reap the domestic benefits from offshore wind To this end, the report identifies five action items, power development, and to build upon India’s which need immediate attention, and are critical to growing leadership globally while addressing the the timely and smooth development of an offshore electricity deficit and climate challenges.
2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 11 2. Growth of offshore wind
2 GROWTH OF OFFSHORE WIND
enewables’ capacity addition in 2016 set a term low carbon development pathways, as agreed record and global installed capacity is now to under the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate R more than 2,000 GW. The global energy Change. system is undergoing a rapid transformation. Large-scale renewable energy development is For countries in Northern Europe and China, now a mainstream power generation option. This offshore wind is a part of this transformation, as global growth is increasingly driven by a strong an indigenous source of clean energy supply. Just business case for a clean energy transition in the a decade ago, global offshore wind capacity was face of rising climate impacts. Further favourable less than 1GW, with only the UK, Netherlands and national socio-economic conditions and individual Denmark having commercial wind farms in opera- climate change commitments are making the case tion. In 2016, annual additions rose to over 2.2 GW for renewables stronger. A majority of responsible across seven markets globally, bringing total governments worldwide accept the need for long- installed capacity globally to just over 14.6 GW [5].
FIGURE 1: GROWTH IN CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY OF OFFSHORE WIND IN MAJOR MARKETS
MWs
6,000 UK
Germany 5,000
PR China
4,000 Denmark
3,000 Netherlands
2,000
1,000
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12 2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 2. Growth of offshore wind GWEC
2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 13 2. Growth of offshore wind
FIGURE 2: ESTIMATES OF LCOE CHANGE FOR OFFSHORE WIND
% Change in LCOE relative to 2014 baseline
10
0
−10
−20
−30
−40
−50
−60
−70 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Literature-derived estimates Expert survey; medium scenario Expert survey; high scenario Expert survey; low scenario
Image: R. Wiser et al., “Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs,” Nat. Energy, vol. 1, Sep. 2016
Over time, the UK has become the clear market If 2016 was a landmark year, 2017 has seen leader with steady growth in its installed capacity. even more spectacular numbers. In April 2017, On the other hand, Denmark the early leader of the the German Federal Network Agency announced offshore market has seen slower growth in the last the results of its first auction for offshore wind five years. Since 2014, offshore wind deployment projects. Three of four offshore wind projects has picked up strongly in Germany and to a lesser with a total capacity of 1,380MW were awarded extent in China and the Netherlands. and will not receive any subsidy over and above the wholesale electricity price. This prompted the The offshore wind industry had a breakthrough Dutch government to seek subsidy-free bids for year in 2016 with dramatic reduction in prices. two zones in the upcoming tender process for the In June the Netherlands awarded the Borssele 1 & Hollandse Kust offshore windfarm. In the UK, the 2 projects for €72/MWh, well below expectations; second round of CfD tenders awarded 3.2GW of followed by a Danish nearshore tender in Sep- offshore wind capacity, of which 2.3GW cleared at tember 2016 at €64/MWh. Two months later, the the strike price of £57.50/MWh. This strike price winning bid for the Danish Krieger’s Flak project is about 50% cheaper than the price discovered came in at an astonishing €49.90/MWh; and in two years ago, and significantly lower than the December 2016 Borssele 3 & 4 in the Netherlands government’s forecast. were awarded at €54.50/MWh.
14 2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 2. Growth of offshore wind GWEC
There are a number of reasons for the price South Korea has a long-term plan to develop breakthroughs seen across mature northern offshore projects with the help of its local heavy European markets, including: the maturing of industry giants. It is expected that the offshore the regional supply chain, the improvement wind market will start up in India by the end of the and maturation of the technology and its man- decade with initial projects. agement, growing investor confidence, and the introduction of larger machines, with enormous The continued reductions in LCOE will play a key swept area ultimately leading to much higher role in sustaining the growth of offshore wind. A generation. wide range of estimates are made in literature with regards to the future cost of offshore wind. The size of upcoming offshore turbines is ex- These show significant uncertainty in the degree pected to even larger over the coming 5-10 years. and timing of future advancements. Plans for 10 MW, 12 MW and even larger machines are already afoot. The wide variation in the findings can be partly explained by noting the differences in learning Looking forward, Europe is expected to maintain model specification, assumed geographic scope of its market dominance for the foreseeable future. learning, and the period of the analysis. One expert However, the offshore wind industry will con- elicitation of 183 industry professionals expects a tinue spreading to newer markets, where vast 30% fall in offshore wind LCOE by 2030 and going potential for growth remains unexplored. The up to 40% by 2050, in the median scenario [6]. first commercial offshore wind farm came on line in 2016 in the US. There is a renewed push The drivers of the decline in LCOE are manifold: in China, with more than 1 GW expected to come ‘learning with market growth’, R&D investment, a online in 2017. Tenders for up to 6 GW of offshore variety of development, technology, design, manu- wind by 2025 are in advanced stages of planning facturing, construction, operational improvements in Taiwan. Japan has invested in several dem- and market changes that affect electricity price onstration projects for floating offshore projects. and government support for technologies.
2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 15 3. Five key challenges for offshore wind
3 FIVE KEY CHALLENGES FOR OFFSHORE WIND
he offshore wind industry is relatively Installation (EPCI) contractor, insurer(s), and the young. However, in just over a decade total port authorities, the utilities to energy sector reg- T global installed capacity has gone from less ulators. Each of these stakeholders has their own than 1GW to over 15GW. Today the offshore wind domain of expertise and objectives, which must technology and project development process be managed by the project developer. In addition, is maturing at a rapid scale across northern many of these stakeholders often have their own European markets and in China. subcontractors that will have significant involve- ment in the project and may directly liaise with the Offshore wind installations globally slowed down project developer, for example the EPCI’s subcon- in 2016, with a 31% reduction from the previous tractors like the WTG supplier, marine operation year. Yet the global outlook remains positive firms etc. It is clear that timely execution of bolstered in partx by project developers achieving getting an offshore wind farm from its feasibility the 2020 LCOE target of £100/MWh four years study phase to commissioning requires skilled ahead of schedule. Winning bids of auctions held project management over a period of 7-9 years. in the Netherlands, Germany, UK and Denmark in 2017 have delivered up to 48% cost reduction compared to projects just two years ago. 2. LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY
Offshore wind presents a vast potential to drive The cost of energy from offshore wind farms has the energy transition. However, several barriers dropped significantly in mature European markets. remain on the path to achieving even greater In the UK for example, the second Contract for deployment across the world. These are discussed Difference (CfD) round1 for renewable energy in below. 2017 awarded almost 3.2GW of offshore wind capacity wherein strike prices went as low as £57.50/MWh for projects scheduled for commis- 1. COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT PROCESS sioning in 2022/23. This is less than half the strike price discovered in the first round of CfD auctions With lead times of 7-9 years from lease to held in 2015. Figure 4 shows how steep the operation, and upfront CAPEX of several decline in strike price is from the early investment hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, contracts that were all in excess of £150/MWh. offshore wind projects are long-term, capital- intensive investments. In addition, building an The latest contracts awarded in the UK reveal that offshore wind farm requires coordinated devel- 2017 offshore wind strike prices are cheaper than opment of a number of diverse and complex work
streams. 1 CfD is a long-term contract between a low carbon generator and a government-owned company that guarantees the generator stable revenue at pre-agreed level (‘strike price’) for the duration of the As seen from the stakeholder analysis chart contract. When the market price for electricity generated by a CfD (Figure 3), the project developer has to work Generator (‘reference price’) is below the strike price, payments are made to the CfD Generator to make up the difference. Conversely, directly with several stakeholders ranging from when the reference price is above the strike price, the CfD Generator the Engineering Procurement Construction pays the difference.
16 2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 3. Five key challenges for offshore wind
FIGURE 3: STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS CHART
Ports (Construction Independent Investors Land Local and O&M) Engineer (IE) Owners Government
Nodal Agency
Project Regulatory/ Utility Developer Permitting
EIA
Owner’s Engineer (OE) EPCI Insurers
HSE
Foundation & Installation/ WTG Marine O&M Electrical Substructure Operations
WTG & Submarine Marine Foundation Cable Vessel Warranty Installer Surveyor
In direct communication with Project Developer (e.g. Local Government, Owner’s Engineer, etc.) Significant involvement in the Project and/or in consultation with Project Developer (e.g. WTG Suppliers) Has no direct communications with Project Developer and required to inform it (e.g. Subcontractor of Main contractors)
Image: DNV GL
the government’s official estimate of the levelised with the difficult issue of cost differentials cost of gas projects that start generating in 2020 between offshore wind and other renewable and 2025 [7]. Strike prices for offshore wind also technologies. In India, for example, recent auctions compare favourably with electricity generation have made solar PV and onshore wind competitive from nuclear power plants. The UK govern- with thermal power generation. In these emerging ment’s agreed strike price for Hinkley Point C is markets achieving steeper cost reductions for £92.50/MWh for a period of 35 years with the offshore wind technology will be a significant plant expected to be operational around 2025-26. challenge, with onshore wind and solar setting low This makes offshore wind about 37% cheaper than price records across the board. nuclear and has the benefit of preventing energy consumers from being locked in with exceptionally long-term (35 year) cost commitments while the 3. FINANCING plant is operating, and for centuries thereafter. An increasing number of developed markets are With the maturity of the UK offshore market, the moving towards competitive auctions and the local media narrative has shifted sharply away offshore wind sector is likely to see more market from the alleged negative impacts of offshore based mechanisms being put in place by govern- wind deployment to broader environmental ben- ments for supporting further growth. This move efits and local industrial growth. Now, more than towards auctions, combined with rapidly falling ever, offshore wind is being hailed for the success- prices for large project capacities being auctioned ful and spectacular lowering of costs across creates challenges for individual or smaller project Europe. developers to secure attractive long term finance in European markets. In these markets revenues This optimism is not yet seen in newer markets will depend on overall energy production and the where the nascent offshore industry has to deal prevailing price of electricity in the market.
2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 17 3. Five key challenges for offshore wind
FIGURE 4: EVOLUTION OF COST OF WIND IN THE UK
175 Strike price (GBP/MWh) Allocation.Round Investment Contract Allocation Round 1 Allocation Round 2 150 500 MW
1000 125 MW
1500 100 MW
75
50
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Year of project commissioning
However, concerns over financing for off- and Germany. Such increased activity is an shore wind are allayed to some extent by two acknowledgement of increasing sector maturity emerging trends. First, more corporate and and lowering of risk profile. industrial consumers are aiming to procure green electricity directly from power generating The access to low cost finance and insurance assets. Large energy users acting as off-takers instruments is an even bigger challenge in most through Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) emerging markets. This is further complicated provide a project with a long term stable revenue by the expansion of offshore wind projects into stream, particularly in markets where generators deeper waters, and in east Asia into regions with are exposed to some level of wholesale price frequent typhoons and earthquake prone seabed. fluctuations. Corporate PPAs could become This presents a new engineering challenge for an established business model that facilitate offshore wind developers while also raising the investments for utility scale renewable energy risk profile of their projects. In India, the cost of projects, as it has in the USA. Second, mature financing is still very high. Initial offshore wind markets in Europe are seeing increased partic- projects would need significant support through ipation from a diversity of financing sources, low-cost public funds to leverage private invest- such as pension funds, infrastructure and private ment along with stable regulatory mechanisms. equity funds. For example, the Danish pension Multilateral or bi-lateral support with currency fund company PKA has acquired an equity stake hedging mechanisms could be also be utilised. in offshore wind farms in the Netherlands, UK
18 2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 3. Five key challenges for offshore wind GWEC
4. INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT: the situation has improved substantially with SUPPLY CHAIN, PORTS AND GRID increasing competition across most areas of the supply chain. It is important to note that the nature Supply chain bottlenecks have historically been of the supply chain bottleneck depends on the another area of concern. Until a few years ago, the market under consideration; for instance, vessel offshore wind sector lacked a dedicated supply availability is a particular concern in the USA and chain, meaning that developers had to ‘beg and Taiwan. In response to these challenges, several borrow’ from other sectors – such as onshore wind researchers have examined ways to minimise and oil and gas. For example, for early projects one the installation costs and/or identify optimal key bottleneck in the UK was a lack of dedicated installation schedules considering weather specialised vessels, as these were predominantly restrictions, distances, vessel capabilities, vessel used in the oil & gas sector, and in some cases availability and assembly scenarios spanning the were oversized for offshore wind farms. However, length of the installation period.
2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 19 3. Five key challenges for offshore wind
FIGURE 5: ELEMENTS OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN ADDRESSED BY FOWIND
WTG Offshore supply substation topside
Fabrication equipment Foundations
Transport and installation equipment Offshore electrical networks
Image: DNV GL
In order to fully capture the diversity and of projects and there is a need to grow local magnitude of a typical project’s supply chain, capability in the planning, design and delivery FOWIND’s Supply Chain, Port Infrastructure and of offshore transmission systems amongst key Logistics Study for India compiled an illustrative power sector stakeholders and capture learning procurement list to document some of the from more mature offshore wind markets in important elements required to successfully Europe through dialogue between utilities. develop an offshore wind farm from fabrication through to operation [9]. Figure 5 captures the broad themes under which the list was populated. 5. SOCIO-ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS Each item on the list is associated with complex interfacing, risk, health & safety, specialised Like any major infrastructure project, offshore manpower and environmental considerations. wind project development affects its local These implications and interactions must be environment. These impacts need to be assessed carefully evaluated during project development. and where required mitigated to the nationally/ locally acceptable levels. Potential impacts could Further, the timely development of adequate include fishing communities and shipping routes transmission infrastructure is essential for among others. With over 4,000 offshore turbines connection of offshore wind farms and power now commissioned, the sector has a much better evacuation from offshore wind farms. Regulatory understanding of potential impacts. models of delivery and ownership of offshore transmission assets that best suit Indian power However, assessing the impacts of offshore wind system conditions is discussed in detail in the is extremely challenging given the multiplicity of Grid Integration Study for Offshore Wind Farm assessment methods and interpretations. More- Development in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, published over, interest groups attach varying values to the by FOWIND in 2017 [13x]. Such decisions have different uses of the marine environment that a significant bearing on the cost and feasibility may lead to conflict between these parties. A
20 2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 3. Five key challenges for offshore wind GWEC
recent instance of such divergence comes from India has a strong oil and gas, marine and shipping Scotland. In January 2015, the Royal Society for industry. It also has a strong tradition of local the Protection of Birds (RSPB) submitted a legal fishing communities. India could expedite project challenge to the government’s consent for four development cycles if standardised EIA guide- offshore windfarms in the Firths of Forth and Tay lines for offshore wind farm development were citing great risk of harm to seabird colonies. Legal developed in tandem with comprehensive stake- proceedings delayed site construction for well holder involvement early on. over two years, with a final decision in favour of the site development made in November 2017.
2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 21 4. Five key enablers for offshore wind
4 FIVE KEY ENABLERS FOR OFFSHORE WIND BEST PRACTICES FROM GLOBAL EXPERIENCE
lobally, there is over 25 years of experience The benefit of this approach is that it also allows in developing offshore wind farms. Along for early stage selection of technologies and G the way, some policy frameworks have potential suppliers. The length of the overall been less successful, while others have helped the approval phase is reduced because of the sector move forward rapidly. Different countries work done upfront. Thus, the site is effectively have approached offshore wind farms using de-risked to the developer and the bid can be different policy mechanisms, and thus there is a priced more effectively. wide range from which to draw lessons. Taiwan is also taking early steps in de-risking Five key policy enablers are laid out here, as best project development. The government has carried practises for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu to consider out detailed wind speed assessments for its adopting. territory (Figure 6) and makes available results of preliminary site investigations to developers of demonstration projects. 1. DE-RISK DEVELOPMENT
The early stages of developing offshore wind 2. MARITIME SPATIAL PLANNING farms present a number of uncertainties for the project developer. For instance, if the developers Sea basins across the EEZs usually host several did not know the ground conditions at the site, diverse activities and resource uses. Offshore they would have to include contingency and risk wind developments must co-exist with a host of provisions associated with this uncertainty. existing and future interests such as shipping The cost of capital is also higher because of the lanes, defence, fishing, ecological protection, elevated risk premium. submarine cable routes, mineral extraction, coastal tourism etc. Within this context, Maritime The Danish government addresses this issue by Spatial Planning (MSP) can be understood as undertaking substantial work prior in the planning the process of planning and regulating human phase, i.e. in advance of the call for tenders. activities at sea. Before the tender submission, the following are made available to pre-qualified parties: The framework in Germany offers key lessons for emerging markets on how to implement a robust •• Results of the preliminary investigations MSP process and use it to enable the development of wind, waves and current conditions of offshore wind farms. The Federal Ministry of (MetOcean data) Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) is responsible for setting up the MSPs for Germany’s •• Results of the preliminary survey of the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Then building geological conditions on the conditions ascertained and the priority area for offshore wind determined in the MSP, more •• Complete and fully approved Environmental specific Spatial Offshore Grid Plans were drawn Impact Assessment (EIA) of the designated area up for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. This
22 2018-2032 – From Zero to Five GW: Offshore wind outlook for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu 4. Five key enablers for offshore wind
FIGURE 6: EXAMPLE OF WIND RESOURCE ASSESSMENT FROM TAIWAN