Belt and Road Initiative
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Opening remarks Iain Duncan Partner, Head of International Belt and Road Mining Group Simmons & Simmons Initiative (BRI) Wednesday 19 September 2018 London, the Centre for the Mining Sector: Listing Equity and Debt on the LSE Dr Darko Hajdukovic, Head of Analytics, Funds and Fixed Income, UK Primary Markets, London Stock Exchange Accessing London’s Global Capital Markets Discussion Material September 2018 Benefits of Listing in London LSE ranks 1st in Europe with 40 IPOs in H1 2018 raising £4.1 Supportive UK ECM Environment billion 85% of investors in London Stock Exchange listed securities Access the deepest pool of international capital in the world do not hold Tadawul listed securities Value traded on London Stock Exchange is more than all Enhanced liquidity profile Middle Eastern exchanges combined In 2017 alone, 53% of London Stock Exchange issuers Ability to conduct large offerings successfully returned to market to raise further capital Companies made acquisitions in 36 different countries using Capital to fund acquisitions and expand into new markets LSE-listed shares as acquisition currency Renowned for equal treatment of all shareholders and low Straightforward documentation & a choice of markets litigation risk Standard or Premium listing on the Main Market Choice of instrument to suit your trading requirements Ordinary Shares* or Depository Receipts Maximising issuer profiles Extensive LSEG product offering to enhance issuer profiles * For companies with market capitalisation above $500m 2 Weekly Macroeconomic and Equity Capital Markets Update September 2018 UK Equities Outperform Rest of Europe Economic indicators positive for sentiment across global equity markets UK AIM among leading indexes globally over last 12 months Key drivers are strong corporate earnings & revenue growth S&P 500 sets 2018 YTD high backed by US economic outperformance and strong Q2 earnings and revenue growth Economic indicators are supportive globally, with positive purchasing manager’s index, retail sales, and jobs readings European equities see their first weekly inflow for 26 weeks Sterling ended marginally higher with high volatility driven by Brexit noise US Equity Funds record minimal inflows as ‘trade tension’ fears are stoked Global economic growth remains robust 2018 UK equity performance resilient despite Brexit uncertainty Basic Materials Consumer Goods 25 (11) Real GDP (%) CPI Inflation (%) Policy Rates Consumer Services 14 (11) Financials Healthcare 6 17 18E 19E 17 18E 19E 17 18E 19E 3 Industrials Oil & Gas 13 Tech Telecoms (8) UK 1.70 1.34 1.45 2.70 2.49 2.10 0.50 0.74 1.13 Utilities (15) (4) 10 12 Eurozone 2.52 2.14 1.85 1.53 1.69 1.64 0.00 0.00 0.19 3 5 0 US 2.20 2.83 2.41 2.14 2.50 2.27 1.50 2.42 2.95 24 (22) China 6.90 6.56 6.27 1.55 2.15 2.27 4.35 4.33 4.18 0 (25) Japan 1.74 1.06 1.01 0.47 0.94 1.17 -0.10 -0.10 -0.09 (5) 2017 (%) 2018 YTD (%) Source: FactSet, as at 10 September 2018 * FTSE All Share indexes for ICB Industries 4 Supportive Equity Environment UK equity performance reinforced by earnings growth US Fed 25bp hike expected for September UK equity fund AuM holds steady despite short-term outflows 400 4 Date Event 10 Sep GDP 200 0 11 Sep Unemployment AuM ($bn) ($bn) AuM Bank rate 13 Sep ($bn) s flow In/out 13 Sep ECB rate 0 - 4 13 Sep CPI inflation 17 Sep CPI inflation Jul 2017 2017 Jul 2018 Jul Jan 2017 2017 Jan 2018 Jan Mar 2017 2017 Mar 2018 Mar Nov 2016 2016 Nov 2017 Nov Sep 2016 2016 Sep 2017 Sep May 2018 2018 May 19 Sep Policy rate 2017 May UK funds AuM (LHS) UK funds in/outflows (RHS) UK equities display improving earnings and attractive yield Volatility increases as US-China ‘trade war’ tensions lift 9 x 20x 40 35 15x 30 25 8 x 10x 20 P/E P/E 15 EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA 5 x 10 5 7 x 0 x 0 Jul 18 18 Jul Jul 18 18 Jul 18 Jan Mar 18 18 Mar Nov 17 17 Nov Sep 17 17 Sep May 18 18 May Jan 18 18 Jan Mar 18 18 Mar Nov 17 17 Nov Sep 17 17 Sep 18 Sep May 18 18 May VIX VFTSE VSTOXX EV/EBITDA NTM (LHS) P/E NTM (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, EPFR Global, as at 10 September 2018 5 International Companies Drive IPO Market Q2 sees 3 large capital raises from international companies Supportive Q3 2018 IPO pipeline despite uptick in volatility Over last 5 months, LSE IPOs experience high activity levels* 35 40 Primar P r i c i n g P r i c e Seconda Date Company Sector y ( £ q u a r t i l e p e r f . C o u n t r y 35 ry ( £ m) 30 m) † ( % ) 30 17-A ug-18 Sensyne Health Tech 60.0 - 25 - 18 UK 25 VIX 03-Aug-18 Argo Blockchain Tech 25.0 - --34UK 20 20 26-Jul-18 Nucleus Financial Tech - 32.1 - 15 UK No. IPOs IPOs No. 15 15 19-Jul-18 TheWorks.co.uk Consumer 28.5 36.7 -6UK 10 10 5 . 8 5 . 2 13-Jul-18 ASA International Financials - 137.7 53 Netherlands 5 1.9 2.6 2 . 4 2 . 8 0.9 1.8 1.3 1 . 0 5 0.2 11-Jul-18 Hipgnosis Songs Fund Financials 202.2 - -6Guernsey 0 0 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 QTD 05-Jul-18 Yellow Cake Financials 152.2 - - 14 UK 2016 2017 2018 29-Jun-18 Amigo Financials - 359.5 -16UK 30.0 20.0 Money raised (£bn) No. IPOs (LHS) VIX (RHS) 29-Jun-18 Knights Support Services - 32 UK 28-Jun-18 M ind Gym Support Services - 50.8 -14UK International issuers and tech take centre stage - 243.2 25-Jun-18 Quilter Financials - 6 UK 20-Jun-18 Tekmar Basic M aterials 61.8 - In Q2, LSE ranks 1st in Europe by volume and value raising £2.8bn from -24UK 25.0 - 23 IPOs 20-Jun-18 Anexo Financials - 15 UK 14-Jun-18 Aquis Exchange Financials 12.0 20.1 -67UK 8 of the 10 largest European growth market IPOs floated on AIM including – 01-Jun-18 Codemasters Tech 15.0 170.0 - - 17 UK Codemasters, Urban Exposure & Team17 45.1 62.4 23-M ay-18 Team17 Tech -36UK 147.4 454.6 10-M ay-18 Avast Tech Large cap IPO activity driven by international companies as the UK equity 7 Czech Republic capital market shrugs off Brexit concerns to attract cross-border listings 09-M ay-18 Urban Exposure Financials 150.0 - -12UK 35.0 8.0 08-M ay-18 Rosenblatt Support - 8 UK 04-M ay-18 Vivo Energy Services Oil & - 603.1 -12Morocco Czech tech giant Avast was the largest tech IPO in 2018 and among the top Gas 5 tech IPOs on LSE of all time. Average 16 .8 3 7.3 4 Source: LSE, Dealogic, as at 10 September 2018 * Excludes transactions raising less than £20m and all investment funds (including REITs and SPACs) 6 † Only displayed for Open Price IPOs with published price range; = 1st quartile, = 4th quartile London’s Metals & Mining Credentials Overview of Metals & Mining Sector LSE is home for the world’s 3 largest mining companies 3/5 3 of the 5 largest 19% publicly traded mining LSE is a leading stock exchange for mining Other companies are listed in companies and accounts for 19% of the total 13%* London London market capitalization of all listed mining companies worldwide 22% MICEX 4 % Tokyo 4 % Mining equities Top 5 Public Mining Companies Mkt Cap ($bn) Natl India globally have 5% 116 $2.04trn market ASX BHP Billiton Plc capitalisation 14% 83 Rio Tinto Plc Shenzhen Glencore Plc 56 6% China Shenhua-h 51 Hong Kong New York Southern Copper 32 8% 8% Toronto Shanghai 8% 8% LSE listed Source: Bloomberg, Factset, September 2018 Note: FTSE ICB Sectors Industrial Metals & Mining and Mining classifications used *Dubai Financial Market & Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange both have no listed Metals & Mining companies 8 Overview of LSE Metals & Mining Sector LSE is home to 171 mining companies Mining Subsectors No. of Companies General Mining 74 42% Gold Mining 42 UK Steel 18 Nonferrous Metals 12 33% Platinum & Precious Metals 8 North America Diamonds & Gemstones 7 Coal 7 14% Aluminium 3 Europe (ex. UK) Total Number of Companies 171 11% Rest of the Total Market Cap $469bn World Market Cap Profile of London’s Mining Sector 60 50 40 PROFESSIONAL SECURITIES MARKET 30 MAIN MARKET AIM 20 ADMISSION TO TRADING ONLY Number of Companies Companies of Number 10 0 $0-5m $5-10m $10-50m $50-100m $100-500m $500m-$1bn $1-5bn $5-10bn $10bn+ Source: FactSet, Dealogic, LSE data, September 2018 Note: FactSet Universal Screening: Metals/Minerals, Steel, Coal and Precious Metal 9 London Metals & Mining Recent IPOs A steady stream of listings London Metals & Mining 2018 IPOs Country of Primary Exchange Pricing Date Company Money Raised ($m) Market cap at IPO ($m) Operations Main Market 31/07/2018 Kavango Resources 2.0 4.4 United Kingdom Main Market - Standard 24/07/2018 Danakali Limited n/a 160.1 Eritrea AIM 16/04/2018 Crusader Resources Limited 5.0 28.7 Australia AIM 29/03/2018 Kore Potash Plc 12.9 79.4 Rep. of Congo AIM 26/03/2018 Bacanora Lithium n.a.