A Bayesian Asymmetric Logistic Model of Factors Underlying Team Success in Top-Level Basketball in Spain
Received: 27 January 2017 Revised: 25 November 2017 Accepted: 12 January 2018 DOI: 10.1111/stan.12127 ORIGINAL ARTICLE A Bayesian asymmetric logistic model of factors underlying team success in top-level basketball in Spain José María Pérez-Sánchez1 Román Salmerón-Gómez2 Francisco M. Ocaña-Peinado3 1Campus Universitario de Tafira, s/n. This paper analyses the factors underlying the victories Department of Applied Economic Analysis, University of Las Palmas de and defeats of the Spanish basketball teams Real Madrid Gran Canaria, Las Palmas 35017, Spain and Barcelona in the national league, ACB. The following 2 Campus Universitario de Cartuja, s/n. research questions were addressed: (a) Is it possible to iden- Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business, tify the factors underlying these results? (b) Can knowledge University of Granada, Granada, of these factors increase the probability of winning and thus 18071, Spain help coaches take better decisions? We analysed 80 and 3Campus Universitario de Cartuja, s/n. 79 games played in the 2013–2014 season by Real Madrid Department of Statistics and Operation Research, University of Granada and Barcelona, respectively. Logistic regression analysis Granada 18071, Spain was performed to predict the probability of the team win- Correspondence ning. The models were estimated by standard (frequentist) José María Pérez-Sánchez, Campus and Bayesian methods, taking into account the asymme- Universitario de Tafira, s/n. try of the data, that is, the fact that the database contained Department of Applied Economic Analysis, University of Las Palmas de many more wins than losses. Thus, the analysis consisted Gran Canaria, Las Palmas 35017, of an asymmetric logistic regression.
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