1 Long-term fault slip rates, distributed deformation rates, and forecast of seismicity 2 in the western United States from joint fitting of community geologic, geodetic, 3 and stress-direction datasets 4 Peter Bird 5 Department of Earth and Space Sciences 6 University of California 7 Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567 8
[email protected] 9 Second revision of 2009.07.08 for J. Geophys. Res. (Solid Earth) 10 ABSTRACT. The long-term-average velocity field of the western United States is computed 11 with a kinematic finite-element code. Community datasets include fault traces, geologic offset 12 rates, geodetic velocities, principal stress directions, and Euler poles. There is an irreducible 13 minimum amount of distributed permanent deformation, which accommodates 1/3 of Pacific- 14 North America relative motion in California. Much of this may be due to slip on faults not 15 included in the model. All datasets are fit at a common RMS level of 1.8 datum standard 16 deviations. Experiments with alternate weights, fault sets, and Euler poles define a suite of 17 acceptable community models. In pseudo-prospective tests, fault offset rates are compared to 18 126 additional published rates not used in the computation: 44% are consistent; another 48% 19 have discrepancies under 1 mm/a, and 8% have larger discrepancies. Updated models are then 20 computed. Novel predictions include: dextral slip at 2~3 mm/a in the Brothers fault zone, two 21 alternative solutions for the Mendocino triple junction, slower slip on some trains of the San 22 Andreas fault than in recent hazard models, and clockwise rotation of some domains in the 23 Eastern California shear zone.