remote sensing Article Historic and Simulated Desert-Oasis Ecotone Changes in the Arid Tarim River Basin, China Fan Sun 1,2 , Yi Wang 1,3,*, Yaning Chen 1, Yupeng Li 1, Qifei Zhang 1,2, Jingxiu Qin 1,2 and Patient Mindje Kayumba 1,2 1 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China;
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[email protected] (P.M.K.) 2 College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 3 School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China * Correspondence:
[email protected]; Tel.: +86-991-7823175 Abstract: The desert-oasis ecotone, as a crucial natural barrier, maintains the stability of oasis agricultural production and protects oasis habitat security. This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of the desert-oasis ecotone in the Tarim River Basin and predicts the near-future land- use change in the desert-oasis ecotone using the cellular automata–Markov (CA-Markov) model. Results indicate that the overall area of the desert-oasis ecotone shows a shrinking trend (from 67,642 km2 in 1990 to 46,613 km2 in 2015) and the land-use change within the desert-oasis ecotone is mainly manifested by the conversion of a large amount of forest and grass area into arable land.