BUDGET 2021 Fiscal Plan Protecting Lives and Livelihoods 2021 – 24 Alberta Treasury Board and Finance Communications 9th floor, Edmonton Federal Building 9820 – 107 Street NW Edmonton, Alberta, T5K 1E7 Telephone: 780 427-5364 Toll-free within Alberta: 310-0000 then 780 427-5364 [email protected] For electronic copies of Budget 2021: Fiscal Plan visit our website at: alberta.ca/budget-documents.aspx ISBN 978-1-4601-5006-1 (Print) ISBN 978-1-4601-5007-8 (PDF) ISSN 2369-0119 (Print) ISSN 2369-0127 (Online) Copyright © 2021 President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance and its licensors. All rights reserved. BUDGET 2021 GOVERNMENT OF ALBERTA | 2021 –24 2021 –24 Fiscal Plan PRESENTED BY TRAVIS TOEWS PRESIDENT OF TREASURY BOARD AND MINISTER OF FINANCE in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta February 25, 2021 Accountability Statement The government’s Fiscal Plan for the three years commencing April 1, 2021 was prepared under my direction in accordance with the Fiscal Planning and Transparency Act and the government’s accounting policies. All of the government’s policy decisions as of February 16, 2021 with material economic or fiscal implications have been considered in preparing the three year Fiscal Plan. Original signed by Travis Toews President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance February 16, 2021 2 Fiscal Plan 2021 – 24 Fiscal Plan 2021 – 24 Overview . ............................................................... 5 Fueling Canada’s Economic Recovery ........................................... 21 Economic Outlook ......................................................... 41 Revenue ................................................................. 73 Expense ................................................................. 95 Capital Plan .............................................................. 125 Tax Plan ................................................................. 143 Debt .................................................................... 161 Fiscal Plan Tables . ......................................................... 169 Response to the Auditor General .............................................. 187 Note: Amounts presented in tables may not add to totals due to rounding. Fiscal Plan 2021 – 24 3 BLANK PAGE 4 BUDGET 2021 GOVERNMENT OF ALBERTA | 2021–24 Fiscal Plan Overview 5 Table of Contents Overview . 7 Protecting Lives and Livelihoods . 7 Alberta's Response and Economic Recovery . 8 Supporting the Energy Sector . 12 Energy and Economic Assumptions . 13 Revenue . 14 Expense . 15 Public Sector Compensation . 17 Capital Plan . 17 Debt and Deficit . 19 Fiscal Anchors . 19 Fiscal Summary . 20 Note: Amounts presented in tables may not add to totals due to rounding. 6 Overview | Fiscal Plan 2021 – 24 Overview Protecting Lives and Livelihoods Albertans continue to face one of the most difficult times in our history . Budget 2021 is focused on what matters most: protecting lives and livelihoods . As we head into the second year of the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, Alberta still faces a long road to recovery . While vaccines offer hope, it will be several months before there is widespread immunization in the province . Our health care system will remain under pressure and so will the economy . Budget 2021 ensures that our health care system is properly resourced to continue the fight against COVID-19 and to protect the lives of Albertans . It adds $1 .25 billion specifically for pandemic-related costs including extra health system capacity, treatment, personal protective equipment, contact tracing and testing and vaccine administration . This budget also invests in livelihoods . Alberta’s economy was hit particularly hard with the dual shock of COVID-19 and the collapse of oil prices . Budget 2021 includes significant support for Alberta’s Recovery Plan to support jobs today and tomorrow . A strategic focus on key economic sectors will set the stage for post-pandemic recovery . The dual priorities of protecting lives and livelihoods have temporarily interrupted our plans for balancing the budget . The government, however, has not wavered from our commitment to good financial management and fiscal prudence . Sound fiscal anchors of net debt to GDP, aligning our per capita spending with other major provinces and re-establishing a plan to balance the budget post-pandemic, will protect the health of Alberta's finances . Overview | Fiscal Plan 2021 – 24 7 pdf named: B21_FP_OVW_kfm_tb.pdf Budget 2021 Overview Section Budget 2021 ‐ Key Fiscal Metrics (billions of dollars) Budget 2021 – Key Fiscal Metrics (billions of dollars) 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 Actual Budget Forecast Estimate Target Target Revenue 46.2 50.0 42.3 43.7 47.4 50.9 Expense Operating expense 48.6 47.8 47.3 48.3 48.4 48.4 Other expense 7.3 8.2 8.2 9.0 8.7 9.6 Total Expense (before provisions and allowances) 55.9 56.1 55.5 57.3 57.1 58.0 COVID-19 / Recovery Plan 0.2 0.5 5.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 Contingency / disaster assistance 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Contingency - COVID-19 - - - 1.3 - - Contingency - Recovery Plan - - - 0.5 - - Crude-by-rail provision 0.9 - 0.4 1.0 - - Surplus / (Deficit) (12.2) (7.3) (20.2) (18.2) (11.0) (8.0) Other Key Metrics: Capital / Other Non-financial assets 54.8 56.0 57.1 58.7 59.7 59.9 Heritage Fund Year-end Balances 16.2 16.6 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 Taxpayer Supported Debt 74.1 77.4 98.3 115.8 128.1 132.5 Net Financial Debt 40.1 43.6 62.5 82.2 94.0 102.1 Net Debt to GDP 11.4% 14.2% 20.3% 24.5% 26.1% 26.6% Note: See table on page 20 for amounts in millions. pdf named: B21_FP_OVW_kfm_tb.pdf Note: See table on page 20 for amounts in millions. Alberta's Response and Economic Recovery At the beginning of last year, we saw the start of the biggest health crisis in a The government is focused on protecting the lives and livelihoods century, the deepest global economic contraction since the Great Depression of Albertans during this pandemic. and an unprecedented collapse in oil prices . We are still dealing with the impacts of these historic events today . Alberta's public health response continues to focus on prevention, curbing the spread, and ensuring our hospitals have capacity for worst-case scenario outbreaks . The government also announced swift measures to address the economic consequences of the pandemic, created tangible support for job creators, and freed up cash for families and business to help relieve the pressure . In 2020-21, government allocated $5 .8 billion in expense and $0 .7 billion in capital investment to COVID-19 response, economic stimulus and Recovery Plan initiatives . This is in addition to measures such as accelerating the Job Creation Tax Cut; waiving interest and deferring payments on student loans; mortgage and loan deferrals through ATB Financial; freezing education property tax rates and deferring payments; and deferring utility payments . Alberta's government provided immediate support for health and social services, including: • $1 .5 billion in operating expense to ensure our healthcare system was properly resourced, with an additional $530 million for personal protective S:\TBF\MinShare\PublnsProd\CorpFin\OBM.PUBLNS‐2021equipment‐22\2021‐22_Fiscal (PPE);‐Plan_vol\01_Overview_B21\Source docs\ Bud21_FP_Overview_tables/ Key Fiscal Metrics #Classification: Protected A Last update: 2/18/2021 /12:36 PM 8 Overview | Fiscal Plan 2021 – 24 • $465 million in critical worker benefits for eligible workers in health care, Alberta provided immediate social services, education and private sectors; relief for individuals, families and • $112 million for emergency isolation payments and support for women’s businesses. Protecting Albertans shelters and homelessness; from the health and financial effects of COVID-19 was, and still is, our • $174 million for Education PPE and Safe Return to Class; priority. • $128 million for continuing care supports; and • $77 million for the public mask program . Government also provided support for businesses, including: • $1 .5 billion in income tax deferral; • $1 .1 billion for WCB premium waiver/deferral; • $1 billion for the federally funded Site Rehabilitation Program; • $575 million in relaunch grants for small and medium-sized businesses; • $300 million orphan well association loan; • $100 million to child care operators to safely reopen facilities; • $32 million in agriculture supports and forestry protection; and • $67 million in rent relief . Alberta led the nation by releasing a Recovery Plan that included: • Over $900 million in Capital Maintenance and Renewal (CMR) funding accelerated from future years of the Capital Plan; • Approximately $700 million in strategic Capital Plan projects; • $500 million in Municipal Stimulus; • $200 million for Strategic Transportation Infrastructure Program (STIP) and water infrastructure projects; and • $449 million in Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) stimulus . Budget 2021 continues to ensure that our health care system is properly resourced during this pandemic, as well as enabling Alberta’s economic recovery . Alberta’s Recovery Plan laid out the government’s plan to fuel economic recovery and introduced strategies for Alberta’s key economic sectors . Since June 30, 2020, government has demonstrated that it is taking key actions to prepare Alberta for a robust economic recovery . Budget 2021 allocates further funding to key economic sectors and sets aside $18 million for additional initiatives under the Department of Jobs, Economy and Innovation that are still under policy development