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Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) June 21, 2020 UNIVERSITY SECURITIES INVESTMENT TEAM

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Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) June 21, 2020 UNIVERSITY SECURITIES INVESTMENT TEAM Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) June 21, 2020 UNIVERSITY SECURITIES INVESTMENT TEAM Written by: BUY TO COVER BHAVYA KETHIREDDIPALLI [email protected] Original thesis: Zynga will continue struggling to enter the Asian mobile gaming market, its in-house games will continue to fail, and topline growth is unsustainable. Strategic Capital Group However, Zynga’s upcoming acquisition of Peak Games; COVID-19’s favorable results in the short-term, though potentially unsustainable; and the increasingly expensive acquisition strategy pose strongly polarized potentials for the future of Stock Rating: BUY TO COVER Zynga. Thus, we should exit our current short position. Industry Rating: BUY Price Target: $10.02 Last Close: $9.89 PRICE TARGET STOCK RATING INDUSTRY RATING Market Capitalization: $10.61B $10.02 BUY TO COVER BUY 52-Week Range: $5.51 – $9.92 Investment Thesis 1. ZNGA’s upcoming acquisition of Peak will increase daily active users, Portfolio Recommendation: expand bookings and margins, and allow greater international BUY TO COVER monetization. On June 1, 2020, Zynga announced its acquisition of Peak, a smaller mobile gaming company that created Toy Blast and Toon Blast. Paying $900 million in cash and $900 million in stock for a $1.8 billion deal, Zynga bought the rest of Peak Games (Zynga bought Peak Card Games for $100 million in 2017), making this its largest deal in its 13-year history. Toy Blast and Toon Blast, released in 2015 and 2017 respectively, already have 12 million daily active users. Peak will operate independently under Zynga’s umbrella, but Zynga CEO Frank Gibeau1 has repeatedly emphasized the margin expansion opportunities as a result of the acquisition. Because Zynga is acquiring two games that are already popular, they do not have to hope for customer demand or increase marketing spend to reach a wide audience. To better illustrate Zynga’s user growth as a result of the acquisition, Zynga had 15 This report was created for the purposes of an internal portfolio review for the University Securities Investment million DAUs in 2016, and this number grew by 40% to 21 million DAUs in 2019. Team (USIT). USIT currently holds a long-term position With this acquisition alone, Zynga’s DAUs will jump by nearly 50%, from 21 million in ZNGA. As a result, USIT may have a conflict of to about 33 million. interest in releasing this report. Information about the structure of USIT and its portfolio can be found online at texasusit.org Peak’s two games have already ranked in the top 10 and top 20 on Apple’s App stores over the past couple of years. While Peak Games’ does not disclose its current profitability, it generated about $600 million in revenue according to Gibeau. The estimated 11% increase in spending on Toon Blast in 2019 seems promising, but estimated Toy Blast revenue showed a 21% decline2. Fortunately, Peak is also expected to monetize 98% of its users with ads by 2021, which could allow them to generate $84 million and $67 million in ad revenue and EBITDA annuallyi. In terms of margin expansion, Peak is very efficient, with only 1 https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/01/zynga-acquires-turkeys-peak-games-for-1-8b-after-buying-its-card-games-studio-for-100m-in- 2017/ 2 https://sensortower.com/blog/peak-games-revenue-1-billion Portfolio Review: ZNGA UNIVERSITY SECURITIES INVESTMENT TEAM 100 employees, which is why Gibeau expects the company to contribute significantly to Zynga’s EBITDA3. Moreover, with only two titles, Peak’s marketing spend has been calculated based on user retention rather than profitability, meaning the cross-promotions between Zynga and Peak titles can result in significant improvement in marketing ROI. Moreover, Peak Games’ primary user base (and paying users) are outside of the US, playing into Zynga’s hopes for international expansion. This geographic expansion may also present an opportunity for the company to cross-sell to Peak users and monetize more of its current international users. A Barclays report estimates that 70% of Peak’s DAUs are international but comprise only 40% of bookings; however, assuming these international user bookings reach parity with the rate in the US, there is significant upside in annual bookings and EBITDA. Key Catalysts: Confirmation of acquisition by Q3 2020, Q4 2020 earnings results, 2021 performance (synergy recognition) 2. The COVID-19 pandemic has enabled greater user spending and engagement in the short-term, leading to strong Q1 2020 results, but long-term user retention is uncertain. As social distancing and shelter-in-place began in March, mobile games saw increased user engagement. Because people couldn’t interact in person at movie theaters or malls, many took to mobile games to remain engaged and socially connected. The mobile gaming industry was already expected to expand by over 10%, but the increased engagement due to the pandemic has accelerated this expansion. Moreover, as DAUs increased, so did ABPU, demonstrating an increase in spending on mobile games. Though advertisers cut spending, the increased bookings and sheer engagement led Zynga to raise its Q2 2020 bookings guidance by $40 million (9%) and EBITDA by $13 million (14%). In Q1 2020, Zynga posted its best-ever Q1 revenue and bookings in company history. With revenue up 52% YoY at $404 million and bookings up 18% YoY at $425 million, Zynga beat guidance and raised guidance for Q2. They also announced a new game pipeline that they expect to release in the second half of the year, which they can market to existing users. Though their marketing spend increased, the CFO assured investors that its ROI would be higher due to increased user engagement. Zynga’s EBITDA was positive (as opposed to Q1 2019) at $68 million, or a margin of about 17%. Though better than the year prior, the company still reported a net loss of a little over $100 million. The company had a strong cash balance pre-Peak acquisition of $1.43 million, and its remaining $600 million will still allow it to remain operationally sound and potentially push for new acquisitions in the future. For 2020, management expects slight gross margin compression due to increases in user spending but decreases in ad revenue. Evidently, the shift in consumer habits has benefitted Zynga during the pandemic and has increased user engagement. Despite the positive results, long term user retention is questionable. As people resume their lives and go to work/school, they will have less time to play mobile games, and they will then enjoy the social interaction they lost during lockdown conditions. However, one could also argue that the increased engagement means more users will remain hooked on mobile games and continue playing despite the world reopening. Because the mobile gaming industry was already to expand in 2020, this event could serve as a tailwind for the industry, thereby helping Zynga retain engagement in the long run. In their Q1 2020 earnings call, management reported that some Asian countries that have reopened have maintained/increased engagement, while others have dipped. This polarized scenario makes it difficult to predict future growth and retention for the company, especially given the relatively short growth periods for mobile games. 3 https://venturebeat.com/2020/06/04/ceo-frank-gibeau-why-zynga-bought-peak-games-for-1-8- billion/#:~:text=Gibeau%20said%20the%20amount%20of,so%20in%20its%20other%20deals. Portfolio Review: ZNGA UNIVERSITY SECURITIES INVESTMENT TEAM Key Catalysts: Q3 & 2020 earnings, increased country reopening, COVID-19 vaccine 3. As Zynga’s legacy portfolio bookings remain flat or decline, the company’s inorganic M&A strategy is unsustainable, due to increasingly higher prices. Zynga’s legacy “forever franchises,” such as Words With Friends, remain somewhat popular, but the immense growth and engagement they saw earlier in the game’s life are no longer. Zynga admits that 3 games make up the majority of their revenue, but these 3 games change every year or so. This means that the company must develop a new game, release a more successful version of an old game, or an acquire a popular game to maintain and/or grow bookings and revenue. Though the company still spends 23% of its sales on R&D, developing a game and hoping it gains traction can be risky, so many of its recent successes have been acquisitions. Fortunately, the company’s past few acquisitions have been successful, and its Peak acquisition is expected to be a huge success. However, there may be some drawbacks to this strategy. Zynga paid 221% more than it had in its next largest deal for Peak in June 2020. Given the company’s track record, when engagement dies down with current popular games, Zynga will pursue its acquisition strategy to replenish its DAUs. However, if Zynga wants to continue purchasing games as they are already popular, they are likely to pay a high price. Peak is a private company, so its exact financials are not available to the public, but the discrepancy between the 2017 and 2020 acquisitions in price are enough to conclude that acquisitions are getting expensive for the company. If Zynga continues to spend more on acquiring smaller game developers, it must ensure that the cash flow generated from newly acquired games will have strong returns and will also be enough to fund its next acquisition. Problematically, if these acquisitions keep getting pricier, the pressure for each acquisition to generate strong returns will rise, making it increasingly unlikely that the acquisition will pay off. Key Catalysts: Announcement of future acquisition (and price), 2021 Peak acquisition results (cash flow) Company Overview: Zynga, Inc, is a video game developer based in San Francisco, CA.
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