The FRONTORIGIN II 2021 ROW WOMEN'S ORIGIN 2021 VOLUME 2 · ISSUE 16 FORGONE CONCLUSION? IS ORIGIN BECOMING AS PREDICTABLE AS THE NRL? PLUS THE NUMBERS GAME: CLOSE CONTESTS IN THE NRL A THING OF THE PAST? INSIDE: Men's & Women's Origin programme with squad lists, previews & head to head stats, NRL Round 15 reviewed LEAGUEUNLIMITED.COM AUSTRALIA’S LEADING INDEPENDENT RUGBY LEAGUE WEBSITE THERE IS NO OFF-SEASON 2 | LEAGUEUNLIMITED.COM | THE FRONT ROW | VOL 2 ISSUE 16 What’s inside From the editor THE FRONT ROW - VOL 2 ISSUE 16 Tim Costello From the editor 3 Bit of an empty feeling this week, isn't it? Feature What's the Point(s)? 4-6 While there's plenty of excitement around the Women's and Men's Origin matches coming up this weekend, the lack of NRL NRL Ladder, Stats Leaders. POTY standings 8 leaves something to be desired. GAME DAY · Women's & Men's Origins 9-15 It's exacerbated this year by the lack of Test matches filling the LU Team Tips 9 gap on Saturday - in previous years New Zealand have been in action together with double- or triple-header Pacific Tests. FRI Women's Origin - QLD v NSW 10-11 Understanding the circumstances as to why they're not being played, it's still a source of frustration to not see International SUN Men's Origin II - QLD v NSW 12-13 footy being played in the lead-up to an expected World Cup later Men's Origin Preview 14-15 in the year. NSWRL Teamlists 16 This week's features are of course the two Origin matches. We have the program with in-depth previews for both. We've also Knock-On Effect NSW Cup R2 16 got a statistical analysis into the blowout scorelines this year and ponder the question of where the game is headed as a result Ron Massey Cup R2 16 of such drastic changes to the fabric of the game. Sydney Shield R2 16 Whether you're a Blues fan, a Maroons fan or looking on from UK Watch 17 the sideline as a neutral - good luck to your team this weekend. Happy reading! NRL Round 15 Wrap 18-21 Match Centre: NSWRL & QRL results 22-23 NRL Match Review & Judiciary - Round 15 23 2021 NRL Draw 24-25 MANAGERS Steven Williams & Coby Delaney The FRONT ROW EDITOR Tim Costello ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS CONTRIBUTORS Andrew Ferguson Rick Edgerton We’d like to thank RugbyLeagueProject.org for their support and use of Josh Robertson various statistics throughout this publication. Robert Crosby Andrew Jackson Magazine content originally appears on LeagueUnlimited.com © 2021 Adam Huxtable unless otherwise noted. Interested in advertising with The Front Row Justin Davies or LeagueUnlimited.com, or just want to provide feedback? Contact us Sam Bourke by email [email protected] Shawn Dollin LEAGUEUNLIMITED.COM | THE FRONT ROW | VOL 2 ISSUE 16 | 3 WHAT'S THE POINT(S)? THE NRL'S RULE CHANGES HAVE CHANGED THE GAME. IS IT FOREVER? t’s abundantly clear that point scoring has as it was the year Sir Donald Bradman was labelled become remarkably easier for most teams in ‘The Dave Brown’ of Cricket. I2021 and nearly all of it can be attributed to the plethora of ad-hoc rule changes introduced since Year Winners avg Losers avg Avg the NRL resumed from its covid-induced lockdown in score p/g score p/g margin 2020. 1998 27.99 12.35 15.64 1999 28.83 12.65 16.18 2000 28.72 13.58 15.14 Set restarts, cutting back to one referee, reduction in 2001 32.94 16.17 16.77 scrums and penalties leading to an increase in fatigue, 2002 32.77 15.47 17.30 head injury assessment changes, sin-bins for every 2003 31.02 16.56 14.46 contact near the head are among the most prolific rule 2004 32.06 15.70 16.36 changes which have all played a major role in points 2005 31.44 15.47 15.97 being scored more prolifically than in recent years. 2006 28.80 14.59 14.21 2007 28.45 13.94 14.52 2008 28.99 13.94 15.06 But how prolific is it? Some believe it’s just teething 2009 28.16 13.52 14.64 pains that will shortly pass, some suggest these 2010 28.05 14.13 13.92 changes are not impacting the fabric of the game any 2011 26.07 12.82 13.25 more than limited tackles and the introduction of the 2012 27.51 13.51 14.00 10 metre rule. Others believe the scoring levels are 2013 28.12 12.86 15.26 unprecedented. 2014 27.83 13.50 14.33 2015 27.08 13.50 13.59 2016 27.86 13.87 13.99 The average score for the winning team in 2021 is 2017 26.90 13.84 13.05 sitting at 32.23 points (as at the end of Round 15), which 2018 26.62 13.94 12.69 makes it the third highest behind 2001 (32.94) and 2019 26.57 12.78 13.79 2002 (32.77). 2020 28.77 13.57 15.21 2021* 32.23 13.67 18.56 The average margin in 2021 currently sits at 18.56 *As at the end of Round 15 points per game, which ranks second behind the 1935 season, which had an average margin of 19.49 points Those numbers show just how lopsided the scores are per game (in the era of 3 point tries). 1935 though has in 2021. always been an outlier when it comes to point scoring, 4 | LEAGUEUNLIMITED.COM | THE FRONT ROW | VOL 2 ISSUE 16 STORY BY ANDREW FERGUSON If we look at the impact on scoring of other major rule Year Winners avg Losers avg Avg changes, such as the move to limited tackles in 1967 (4 score p/g score p/g margin tackle rule) 1981 20.38 9.68 10.71 1982 22.16 9.81 12.35 1983 26.59 12.37 14.23 Year Winners avg Losers avg Avg 1984 22.20 9.91 12.30 score p/g score p/g margin 1985 23.28 9.85 13.42 1965 18.67 7.94 10.72 1986 22.23 9.96 12.27 1966 19.47 9.20 10.27 1967 19.29 9.33 9.96 1968 19.73 10.00 9.73 We can see a huge and very noticeable increase in 1969 20.69 10.73 9.96 1983, however everything went straight back to pre- 1983 levels the very next year. It’s worth noting that It’s tricky to determine if these increases in scoring the increase in 1982 was due to the introduction of are due to the 4 tackle rule, or the introduction of 2 Canberra and Illawarra, the former of which had one new teams. History shows that point scoring does of the worst seasons in the game’s history. 1983 was increase noticeably in the first 1-2 years of a new team’s also the last year of existence for Newtown. existence. What is evident is that scoring didn’t blow out significantly. In 1993, the year began with essentially an 8 metre rule and early into the season this was expanded to 10 Let’s look at when the 6 tackle rule was introduced in metres. 1971. Year Winners avg Losers avg Avg Year Winners avg Losers avg Avg score p/g score p/g margin score p/g score p/g margin 1990 23.93 9.81 14.12 1969 20.69 10.73 9.96 1991 24.20 11.17 13.02 1970 21.44 10.75 10.68 1992 22.32 10.70 11.62 1971 22.13 10.93 11.20 1993 24.03 9.79 14.24 1972 23.41 11.07 12.34 1994 28.76 12.11 16.65 1973 21.01 9.57 11.44 1974 21.97 9.99 11.99 Another tricky period as the game underwent major 1975 21.43 10.52 10.91 changes in this period. 1990 saw the salary cap in its first season, as well as the implementation of the Scoring increased slightly as did margins. Against short-lived draft, which had shaken up every clubs what is tricky here is that in the few years of the roster. 1991 saw the interchange rule introduced that 4 tackle rule we saw an insane spike in field goals allowed every team to have 4 players on the bench that being kicked. At the time, field goals were worth two they could use in a game. 1993 saw a very similar crack points. The introduction of the 6 tackle rule coincided down on high tackles to what has just been revitalised with the value of field goals being reduced to 1 point. in the NRL in the past few weeks. We can’t read much Regardless, scoring didn’t blow out in any way. into this data, nor can we genuinely see its impact in 1995 or 1996 given there had been 4 new teams The impact of increasing the value of tries from 3 introduced and they all received their fair share of points to 4 in 1983. heavy losses over their first 2 seasons. Also introduced in 1996 was the controversial unlimited interchange rule, which wasn’t amended until 2001. continued next page > LEAGUEUNLIMITED.COM | THE FRONT ROW | VOL 2 ISSUE 16 | 5 The big difference between these past rule changes unrivalled performances of Dave Brown in 1935 and and the current crop is that there have been no Balmain and Newtown flogging everyone in 1944 (they other major impacts on the game prior to these were the only teams with a points differential greater recent changes (such as new teams introduced, than +3).