Fortnight Early Warning Bulletin July 7, 2017 EW The E6thR round Directorate, of PSNP has been N 88%DRM completedC and was dispatched www. in Somaliadppc.gov.et alone. The 7th round of PSNP has been completed (100%) and was dispatched in Oromia alone. CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR KIREMT 2017 South and southeastern parts of the country is Based on the global, regional and local pre-seasonal expected to have enhanced rainfall in late indicators as well as their dynamical/statistical summer which shows early onset of Bega predictions, the following conclusions can be drawn Rainfall. for the Kiremt climate outlook 2017 In general, the seasonal rainfall of the country is expected more likely to be dominated by Normal onset over much of seasonal rain the near normal category. benefiting areas while early onset across west, southwest and central parts of the country. Slightly early cessation over pocket areas of northeast lowlands otherwise normal cessation of seasonal rain over the major portions of the country. An increased likelihood of normal to above normal rainfall over northwestern, western, southwestern and central regions. An increased likelihood of near normal over northeastern, eastern and southern highlands. Occasional heavy rains that are highly likely to generate both flash and river-line flooding over flood prone and low lying areas of the country are expected. Unlike typical El Nino years, drought is less Source:-NMA likely to be severe and intense, including over drought-prone regions. Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected] [2] Weather outlook and possible impact for the remaining crops like teff and some pulse for the first half of July 2017 crops. Under normal circumstance during the first half Issues needing attention based on the of July widespread rainfall suppose to cover weather forecast given by NMA Kiremt rain benefiting areas. In relation to this The anticipated normal to above normal rainfall phenomenon heavy fall together with hailstorm over most Meher growing areas would favor is likely at places. season’s agricultural activities. However the expected widespread rainfall with a chance of Pursuant to the NMA forecast in relation to the heavy fall at places during the coming July 2017 expected better strength of the rain producing would cause flash flood in low-lying areas, near weather systems heavy fall which can causes river banks and in the areas where the soil type flash flood is likely at places during the first with low infiltration capacity. dekade of July 2017. Therefore, appropriate Therefor attention should be given for the prevention measure should be undertaken by the following activities:- concerned bodies ahead of time in low-lying areas and near riverbanks including in areas where the The anticipated normal to above normal rainfall soils with poor percolation capacity. Normal to would favor the normal growth and above normal rainfall is anticipated over Oromiya development of the existing crops. Moreover it Region (East and West Welega, Jimma, Ilu might be useful to perform season’s agricultural Ababora, East and North Shewa, Addis Ababa, activities on time. Moreover the expected Arsi and Bale zones ), Gambella region, Amhara normal rainfall particularly over pastoral areas region( Bahir Dar Zuria, North and South of northeaster Afar Region(Zone 1,3,4 and 5) and eastern Somali (Jigjiga and City Zone) parts of the Gonder, East and west Gojam), Benishangul country would favor the availability of pasture Gumuze, Tigray, SNNPR (Hadiya, Guraghe, and drinking water in the areas. Thus the Keffa, Benchi Maji, Wolayita, Sidama and South concerned personnel should take appropriate Omo zones). measure in order to make use of the expected conducive moisture situation efficiently. Moreover normal rainfall with a chance of above normal rainfall in some places is anticipated over North Shewa, West and East Harargie, The anticipated occasional heavy falls likely in Somali(Jigjiga and City Zone), Dira Dawa, Harari some pocket areas, where above normal rainfall and Afar Region(Zone 1,3,4 and 5) during the is expected, might be causes the occurrence of coming month of July. Thus the anticipated normal flood in low-lying areas, near river banks and in rainfall would favour the existing long cycle crops areas where the soil infiltration capacity is poor. sown during the Belg season and Meher crops as Consequently the concerned bodies (e.g. well including early seasons agricultural activities recently activated Flood Task Force at Federal level and the respective Task Forces at Regional level) including people dwelling in flood risk 2 [3] areas(urban and rural areas as well) should take Shewa, East Haragie, East and West Welega, appropriate measure ahead of time. Arsi West Harargie and West Shewa) and at early vegetative stage in Bale and Guji Zones. The outbreak of contaminated animal disease On the other hand crop damage due to water due to the occurrence of flood is likely over stress has been reported from Borna Zone. Belg low-lying pastoral areas. Thus the concerned bodies should undertake proper preparedness crops are at flowering and early grain formation measure ahead of time. stage while planting/sowing underway in case of Meher crops in Amhara Region. Irrigated Water logging problem might be possible in maize at grain formation in Afar Region(Chifra, crop lands with poor drainage system. Therefore Mile, Asayita and Dupti) while harvesting of concerned personnel should undertake possible maize crop going on in Asayita and Dupti prevention measure ahead of time in order to Woredas. Crops are at vegetative stage in minimize the effect of unnecessary moisture. Harari. Land preparation and sowing activities going on in Tigray Region. Sesame crop at emergence and Maze crops at vegetative stage Crop and livestock condition and areas in Gambela Region. The late sown crops are at needing attention based on the weekly emergence stage in Benishangul Gumuz and the Regional Situation Report same is true in case of Dire Dawa. Crop condition Crop pest and diseases Early season’s Meher agricultural activities like SNNPR land preparation and planting/sowing activities Spread of Fall Armyworm in 13 Zone and 3 going on in most parts of Meher growing areas Special Weredas of the Region such as Gurage of the country. With regard to the Belg activities Zone (Abeshgie Wereda), Bench Maji Zone (10 89% of the season’s agricultural activities Weredas/236 Kebeles), Kefa Zone (Except performed in SNNPR, 83% Belg and 26 % Saylem and Gewata the rest of 8 Weredas), Meher activity was performed in Amhara, land Kembata Tenbaro Zone(51 Kebeles), Gamo preparation and planting/sowing activities of Gofa Zone (12 Weredas /121 Kebeles), Dawuro Meher crops was going on in Oromiya, Zone (5 Weredas /92 Kebeles), Sidama Benishangul Gumuz, Harari, Tigray, Zone(Dale, Shebedino, Loka Abaya and Aleta Afar(irrigated crops), Gambela and Dire Dawa. Chuko Weredas /44Kebeles), Hadiya Zone (East Bedewacho Weredas/33Kebeles, West The late sown Meher crops at early vegetative Bedwaco/22Kebeles and Shone in 6 rural stage in some areas where the Meher Kebeles), Sheka(3 Weredas), Dmot Pulusa(23 agricultural activities start earlier. Crops are Kebeles), Bloso Sore (11 Kebes), Dugna Fango emergence stage in Oromiya Region(Jima, Esat 3 [4] (9 Kebeles), Humbo(4 Kebeles), Damot Gale Kelem Wellega (all Weredas on 15333 hectares (18 Kebeles), South Omo(North Ari, South Ari, of crop land), East Wellega Zone(5 Kebeles on Selamago and Male 106 Kebeles in total), 137 hectares of land), Jima(Arjo Weredas Gedeo Zone 3 Weredas /6Kebeles), Konta /3Kebeles on 115 hectares of land), Sibu Sire Special Woreda/423 Kebeles, Segen Peoples Wereda(3 Kebeles on 542 hectares of crop land) (Ale Weredas 7 Kebeles, Konso Wereda 43 and Sasiga Wereda(3 Kebeles on 1235 hectares Kebeles) and Basketo Wereda (7 lowland of land). As a result 6,707 liters of pesticide Kebeles). The total area coverage of damage applied on 13,672 hectares of infested crop land was about 87,596.93 hectares of land. In order and traditional control measures have been to minimize the spread of pest effective control carried out side by side in the above mentioned measures has been carried out trough modern areas to minimize the spread of pest. and traditional method on 49,840.77 hectares of crop land so far. However, the rapid spread Amhara Region nature of the pest coupled with the existing The Fall Army- worm infestation has been favorable environmental condition have resulted reported in Awi zone Ankasha and Banja its spread with alarming rate, so the need adequate Weredas, North Gonder Zone Alefa Takusa supply of pesticide and professionals to under pin Wereda/1 Kebele, Gonder Zuria Wereda 3 the operation is indispensible as reported from the Kebeles, South Gonder Zone Semada, Tach region. Gaynet, Ebenet, libo, Fogera, Dera ,Este, Enda Bete and Farta Weredas and West Gojam Zone Oromiya Region Dembecha, Jabi Tahenen, Bahir Dar Zuria and Wenberma Weredas. In order to control the spread Crop damage due to Fall Armyworm has been of the pest control measure was underway over reported from Bale Zone (Meda above mention infested areas. Welebu/5Kebeles, on 160.2 hectares of maize Benshangul Gumuz crops), Buno Bedele Zone(184 Kebeles on 1809 hectares of land), West Shewa Zone(5 Weredas Rodent attack was reported from Benshangul on 186 hectares of land), East Shewa Zone( 2 Gumuz Metekele Zone (Mandura and Dangure Weredas on 105 hectares of land),West Welega Weredas on 2766hectars and in Homosha Wereda 47 hectares of land. Therefore pest control (all Woredas on 3263 hectares of land), East measure both modern and traditional way is Harargie Zone (all Weredas on 1598 hectares of carried out in affected areas.