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Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2007 Final Report

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West Midlands North Housing Market Area Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2007 Final Report April 2008 WEST MIDLANDS NORTH HOUSING MARKET AREA STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT CONTENTS FOREWORD 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13 1 APPROACH 33 1.1 Purpose and objectives of the study 33 1.2 Methodology 34 1.3 Report structure 36 2 POLICY CONTEXT 38 2.1 Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3): Housing 38 2.2 Strategic Housing Market Assessments 40 2.3 Housing Green Paper 42 2.4 Regional Housing Strategy 44 2.5 Regional Spatial Strategy 46 2.6 West Midlands Economic Strategy 47 2.7 New Growth Points 48 2.8 Housing market renewal 50 3 THE DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CONTEXT 53 3.1 Introduction 53 3.2 Population change 54 3.3 Migration 56 3.4 Household types and tenure 62 3.5 Black and minority ethnic communities 66 3.6 International migration 68 3.7 Economic performance 72 3.8 Employment 75 3.9 Income and earnings 79 print: 18-Apr-08 1 ref: z:\projects\north shma\reports\final report v5.0.doc 4 THE HOUSING STOCK 84 4.1 Introduction 84 4.2 Tenure 85 4.3 Dwelling type 88 4.4 Stock condition 95 4.5 Over-crowding and under occupation 100 4.6 Shared housing and communal establishments 101 5 THE ACTIVE MARKET 103 5.1 Introduction 103 5.2 The cost of housing for sale 104 5.3 House price change 108 5.4 Sales and turnover 117 5.5 Local incomes and local house prices 121 5.6 The cost of private rented housing 125 5.7 The cost of social housing 127 5.8 Entry-level housing 129 5.9 Affordability of housing for sale 131 5.10 Affordability of private rented housing 135 6 THE FUTURE HOUSING MARKET 138 6.1 Market commentary 138 6.2 Population and household change 140 6.3 Housing demand 142 6.4 Newly arising need 144 6.5 Future household types 146 6.6 Implications for the future housing market 147 7 CURRENT HOUSING NEED 150 7.1 Assessing the need for affordable housing 150 7.2 Defining housing need and unsuitable housing 151 7.3 Total current housing need (gross per year) 154 8 FUTURE HOUSING NEED 157 8.1 New household formation 157 8.2 Total newly arising housing need 157 9 AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY 161 9.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need 161 9.2 Surplus stock 162 9.3 Committed supply of new affordable units 162 9.4 Units to be taken out of management 163 2 9.5 Low demand and difficult to let housing 164 9.6 Total affordable housing stock available 165 9.7 Future annual supply of social re-lets (net) 165 9.8 Future annual supply of intermediate affordable housing 167 9.9 Future annual supply of affordable housing units 167 10 HOUSING REQUIREMENTS OF SPECIFIC HOUSEHOLD GROUPS 168 10.1 Introduction 168 10.2 Supporting People 168 10.3 Changing Lives 169 10.4 Local strategies 170 10.5 Older people 171 10.6 Households with specific needs 180 10.7 Black and minority ethnic communities 182 10.8 Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation 190 11 DEMAND FOR SOCIAL HOUSING 194 11.1 Introduction 194 11.2 East Staffordshire 194 11.3 Newcastle-under-Lyme 197 11.4 Stafford 202 11.5 Staffordshire Moorlands 204 11.6 Stoke-on-Trent 206 12 BRINGING THE EVIDENCE TOGETHER 211 12.1 Housing market sectors in the North Housing Market Area 211 12.2 West Newcastle-under-Lyme 215 12.3 Audley/Kidsgrove 216 12.4 Stoke-on-Trent/Central Newcastle 217 12.5 Three Towns (Biddulph, Leek & Cheadle) 219 12.6 North East Staffordshire 220 12.7 Stafford West 221 12.8 Stone and environs 222 12.9 Uttoxeter and environs 223 12.10 Stafford town 224 12.11 Burton-on-Trent 226 12.12 Housing requirements of households in need 227 12.13 Targets for affordable housing 228 12.14 Intermediate tenures 232 12.15 Balancing the housing market 238 12.16 Size requirements for affordable housing 240 print: 18-Apr-08 3 ref: z:\projects\north shma\reports\final report v5.0.doc 13 RECOMMENDATIONS 243 4 TABLES Table 1: Core Outputs...........................................................................................................................42 Table 2: Process Checklist ...................................................................................................................42 Table 3: West Midlands Housing Market Areas....................................................................................44 Table 4: Summary of demographic and economic data ......................................................................53 Table 5: Population change 1991-2001 (thousands)............................................................................55 Table 6: Population change 2001-2006 (thousands)............................................................................56 Table 7: Household tenure by district ...................................................................................................63 Table 8: Household composition by tenure (%)....................................................................................64 Table 9: Population by age % ...............................................................................................................65 Table 10: Ethnic profile of population % ...............................................................................................68 Table 11: National Insurance Number allocations to overseas nationals 2005/06 ..............................69 Table 12: Migrant workers 2004-2006 ..................................................................................................70 Table 13: Main occupations of A8 arrivals............................................................................................71 Table 14: Employment and unemployment trends %...........................................................................76 Table 15: Employment and unemployment trends %...........................................................................77 Table 16: Benefits Data Indicators, Working Age Clients, August 2004 % ..........................................78 Table 17: Benefits Data Indicators, Working Age Clients, August 2004 % ..........................................79 Table 18: Lower quartile and median earnings 2002 to 2006 ..............................................................79 Table 19: Summary of housing stock datasets ....................................................................................84 Table 20: Housing stock profile.............................................................................................................85 Table 21: Housing stock profile.............................................................................................................86 Table 22: Dwelling type by tenure 2001 ...............................................................................................87 Table 23: Breakdown of owner occupation...........................................................................................89 Table 24: Dwelling type by tenure 1991 ...............................................................................................90 Table 25: Size of dwellings ...................................................................................................................91 Table 26: Unfit dwellings.......................................................................................................................96 Table 27: Cost of making fit unfit private sector....................................................................................97 Table 28: Non-decent dwellings by tenure ...........................................................................................98 Table 29: Private sector renewal assistance grants ...........................................................................100 Table 30: Occupancy rating (%) .........................................................................................................101 Table 31: Number of houses in multiple occupation...........................................................................102 Table 32: Summary of active market datasets ...................................................................................103 Table 33: Mean house price ...............................................................................................................105 Table 34: Mean house price and five-year change ............................................................................109 Table 35: East Staffordshire house price change 2001-2006 ............................................................111 Table 36: Newcastle-under-Lyme house price change 2001-2006....................................................111 Table 37: Stafford Borough house price change 2001-2006..............................................................112 Table 38: Staffordshire Moorlands house price change 2001-2006...................................................112 Table 39: Stoke-on-Trent house price change 2001-2006.................................................................112 Table 40: West Midlands house price change 2001-2006 .................................................................113 Table 41: Average 5-year house price and price ratio change by type ..............................................116 Table 42: Volume of sales 1996 to 2006 ............................................................................................118 Table 43: Turnover of private sector dwellings 2002-2006.................................................................119 print: 18-Apr-08 5 ref: z:\projects\north shma\reports\final report v5.0.doc Table 44: Volume of sales by property type for period 2001 to 2006 (%) ..........................................120
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