Izrada Karata Opasnosti I Izračun Šteta Na Slivu Rijeke Bednje

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Izrada Karata Opasnosti I Izračun Šteta Na Slivu Rijeke Bednje IZRADA KARATA OPASNOSTI I IZRAČUN ŠTETA NA SLIVU RIJEKE BEDNJE Marin Paladin, dipl.ing.građ.a, Renata Vidaković Šutić, dipl.ing.građ.b, Boris Vrcelj, dipl.ing.geol.c, Vedrana Ričković, dipl.ing.građ.d a Institut za elektroprivredu i energetiku d.d. Zagreb, [email protected] b Institut za elektroprivredu i energetiku d.d. Zagreb, [email protected] c Institut za elektroprivredu i energetiku d.d. Zagreb, [email protected] d Institut za elektroprivredu i energetiku d.d. Zagreb, [email protected] SAŽETAK U ovom radu prikazana je analiza sliva rijeke Bednje kao područja s potencijalno značajnim poplavnim rizikom. Analiza je provedena u sklopu izrade studijske dokumentacije za pripremu projekata zaštite od poplava na slivu Bednje za sufinanciranje iz fondova Europske unije. Ciljevi studije su definiranje elemenata planova upravljanja rizicima od poplava na slivu Bednje te izrada studije izvodljivosti za pojedine projekte sadržane u optimalnom sustavu mjera upravljanja rizicima od poplava u svrhu ishođenja sufinanciranja iz EU fondova. U prvoj fazi provedena je detaljna analiza postojećeg stanja, uključujući hidrološko-hidrauličke analize i modeliranja te izradu karata opasnosti od poplava opisane u ovom radu. Prethodnim aktivnostima obuhvaćeni su pregled podloga, analiza postojeće studijske i projektne dokumentacije te obilazak terena. Analize su započele izradom hidroloških i meteoroloških podloga na temelju raspoloživih podatka službene mreže hidroloških i meteoroloških stanica DHMZ-a. Simulacija procesa oborina-otjecanje provedena je na hidrološkom modelu sliva (HEC-HMS) koristeći hidrološke i meteorološke podloge te topografske, hidrografske i pedološke značajke podslivova na koje je sliv rijeke Bednje u tu svrhu podijeljen. Hidrološki model je kalibriran i verificiran na temelju izmjerenih vodnih valova na hidrološkim stanicama. Uspoređeni su sintetski vodni valovi dobiveni statističkom obradom izmjerenih podataka s hidroloških stanica i teoretski valovi dobiveni hidrološkim modelom za odgovarajuće povratne periode. Nastavno je izrađen hidraulički, nestacionarni 2D numerički model sliva (MIKE 21) koji koristi dostupne prostorne podatke te sintetske vodne valove sa svakog podsliva koji su rezultat hidrološkog modela. Hidraulički model je također kalibriran i verificiran na temelju snimljenih vodnih valova i zabilježenih poplavnih događaja. Rezultat hidrauličkog modela su karte opasnosti od poplava, odnosno karte dubina i brzina vode na čitavom slivu za određene povratne periode. Na temelju karata dubina, računaju se potencijalne štete pomoću usvojene metodologije, odnosno alata (NACER) za izračun šteta na poplavljenim područjima. Iznesen je osvrt na kvalitetu i dostupnost podloga za uspostavljene modele, kao i osvrt na vrijednosti izračunate potencijalne štete na poplavljenom području. KLJUČNE RIJEČI: Sliv rijeke Bednje, Hidrološki model, 2D hidraulički model, Karte opasnosti od poplava, Potencijalne štete od poplava SUMMARY This paper presents an analysis of the Bednja river basin as a potentially significant flood risk area. The analysis was conducted in the scope of producing the documentation for the preparation of flood protection projects in the Bednja river basin for co-financing from EU funds. The objectives of the study are defining elements of the plans of flood risk management in the Bednja river basin and feasibility study for individual projects contained in an optimal system of measures of flood risk management for the purpose of obtaining co-financing from EU funds. The first phase contains detailed analysis of the current situation, including hydrological and hydraulic analyzes and modeling, together with the development of the flood hazard maps described in this paper. The preceding activities included are view of the baseline materials, an analysis of the existing study and project documents and a field trip. The analyses started with the development of hydrological and meteorological maps based on available data from the official network of hydrological and meteorological stations of the State Meteorological and Hydrological Service. The simulation of the rainfall-runoff process was carried out on the basin’s hydrological model (HEC-HMS) by utilization of hydrological and meteorological maps and topographic, hydrographical and pedological characteristics of the subbasins into which the Bednja river basin was divided for this purpose. The hydrological model was calibrated and verified according to the water waves measured at the hydrological stations. The synthetic water waves obtained by statistical processing of the data measured at the hydrological stations were compared with the theoretical water waves obtained through hydrological modelling for relevant return periods. Additionally, a hydraulic, non-stationary 2D numerical model (MIKE 21) of the basin was developed. This model uses available spatial data and synthetic water waves from each subbasin resulting from the hydrological model. The hydraulic model was also calibrated and verified based on the observed water waves and recorded flood events. The results of the hydraulic model were flood hazard maps, i.e. maps of water depths and velocities in the entire basin for relevant return periods. Potential damages were calculated on the basis of the depth maps with adopted methodology, i.e. and tools (NACER) for calculation of damage in flooded areas. The paper includes a review of quality and availability of baseline information for the established models and a review of values of the calculated potential damage in the flooded area. KEY WORDS: Bednja river basin, hydrological model, 2D hydrological model, flood hazard maps, potential flood damage 1. UVOD Pripremne analize za izradu Strategije upravljanja vodama (NN 91/08) su pokazale da je oko 15% kopnenog teritorija RH potencijalno ugroženo od poplava. Veći dio tog teritorija je zaštićen, ali s različitim razinama zaštite i sigurnosti. Zakon o vodama (NN 153/09, 63/11, 130/11, 56/13, 14/14) definira zaštitu od štetnog djelovanja voda i upravljanje rizicima. Prvi korak u upravljanju rizicima od poplava je izrada prethodne procjene rizika od poplava čiji je rezultat identifikacija područja s potencijalno značajnim poplavnim rizicima. Za ta područja potrebno je izraditi karte opasnosti od poplava, karte rizika od poplava i planove upravljanja rizicima od poplava. Neka od tih područja se nalaze u inundaciji rijeke Bednje i analizirat će se na razini sliva Bednje, a u nizinskom dijelu sliva Bednje u obzir će se uzeti i utjecaj rijeka Drave i Plitvice. U cilju smanjenja rizika od poplava na ugroženim područjima, kao što je sliv Bednje, potrebno je planirati i provoditi mjere upravljanja rizicima od poplava, uključujući preventivne mjere izgradnje, dogradnje ili rekonstrukcije sustava za zaštitu od poplava. U svrhu ishođenja sufinanciranja iz EU fondova za mjere upravljanja rizicima od poplava na slivu Bednje, Hrvatske vode su pokrenule aktivnosti na izradi studijske dokumentacije za pripremu EU projekata zaštite od poplava na ovom slivu. Ciljevi studije su definiranje elemenata planova upravljanja rizicima od poplava na slivu Bednje te izrada studije izvodljivosti za pojedine projekte sadržane u optimalnom sustavu mjera upravljanja rizicima od poplava u svrhu ishođenja sufinanciranja iz EU fondova. U prvoj fazi provedena je detaljna analiza postojećeg stanja, uključujući hidrološko- hidrauličke analize i modeliranja te izradu karata opasnosti od poplava opisane u ovom radu. 2. HIDROLOŠKI MODEL Na predmetnom području sliva Bednje, kao mjerodavne hidrološke stanice (h.s.) analizirane su hidrološke stanice Lepoglava, Željeznica, Ključ, Tuhovec i Ludbreg na Bednji (Slika 1). Nizovi protoka su određeni za pojedinu hidrološku stanicu na temelju vodostaja koji su izravno mjerena hidrološka veličina i krivulja protoka koje su definirane na temelju mjerenja protoka. Ovako izračunati protoci, kao i mjereni vodostaji, te definirane krivulje protoka nalaze se u Bazi hidroloških podataka (HIS-2000) DHMZ-a. Slika 1. Hidrološke stanice, digitalni model reljefa i podjela sliva Bednje za hidraulički model Proračun maksimalnih godišnjih protoka različitih povratnih perioda rijeka Bednje proveden je primjenom standardnih teorijskih funkcija raspodjele za pet hidroloških stanica: Lepoglava, Željeznica, Ključ, Tuhovec i Ludbreg. Analizom hidrograma (srednji dnevni podaci o protoku) zabilježenih vodnih valova, utvrđeno je da vodni valovi na rijeci Bednji u prosjeku traju 4 dana (h.s. Lepoglava) i 5 dana (h.s. Željeznica, Ključ, Tuhovec i Ludbreg), stoga su analizirani maksimalni godišnji volumeni vodnih valova (konstantne trajnosti 4, odnosno 5 dana). Sukladno trajanju vodnih valova vrijeme podizanja vodnog vala na hidrološkoj stanici Lepoglava je 24 sata, dok je na ostalim hidrološkim stanicama oko 30 sati. Za konstrukciju kompletnog sintetskog hidrograma direktnog otjecanja koristi se Goodrichev izraz, za čiju su se konstrukciju kao osnovni elementi koriste maksimalni protok Qmax, vrijeme podizanja tp i vremenska baza hidrograma tB. Na dijelu toka Bednje uzvodno od h.s. Lepoglava, kao i na pritocima Bednje ne postoje sustavna mjerenja i opažanja hidroloških veličina. Za hidrološki model važan je odabir mjerodavne meteorološke stanice (m.s.) na kojoj se mjere oborine. Iako su meteorološke stanice Varaždin i Krapina opremljene ombrografima i raspolažu podacima o kratkotrajnim oborinama, obje se nažalost nalaze izvan orografskog sliva Bednje. Za brdski dio sliva Bednje, kao mjerodavna, odabrana
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