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Mathew Thomas Mathew is the Deputy Director The Presidency of George W. Bush has General at the Institute for Defence been described as the best years of In Search of Congruence: In Search of Congruence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India-US relations. There is, however, no consensus on the future course of this where he heads the US, Europe Nuclear Perspectives on India-US Relations relationship under his successor, Barack and the Military Clusters. He belongs to Obama. The incumbent’s record as a the Indian Administrative Service, and under the Obama Administration Senator, his pronouncements during the has held positions in the Government of election campaign, his promise of a radical India including at the Ministry of Defence. shift from his predecessor’s policies, and his approach on major security and His research interests include India-US foreign policy issues since becoming the Relations and Military Issues. He has President, have raised doubts about the a PhD in International Relations from future of India-US relations. It has lent the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New on India-US Relations under the Obama Administration Perspectives credence to the perception held by many Delhi and is an alumnus of the National analysts that Democratic presidents Defence College, New Delhi. have traditionally not been good for India, swelling the ranks of sceptics who see a downtrend in the relationship. How would the shifts in US priorities under President Obama impact on India- US relations? This collection of essays attempts to assess the complexities and prospective direction of India-US relations under the Obama administration. Each chapter in this volume, examines his pronouncements on major security and foreign policy issues from his election campaign days, and traces the current course of his policies in those areas and their possible implications for India. Being an early assessment of how the relationship is likely to evolve, this book should be of interest to policy makers, the business community and discerning Editor: Thomas Mathew scholars. Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi i Rs. 395.00 ii In Search of Congruence Perspectives on India-US Relations under the Obama Administration i ii In Search of Congruence Perspectives on India-US Relations under the Obama Administration Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi iii © Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, 2010 ISBN: 81-86019-65-0 First Published: February 2010 Published by: Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses 1, Development Enclave, (near USI) Rao Tula Ram Marg New Delhi-110 010 India Telephone: +91-11-2671 7983 (30 lines) Fax: +91-11-2615 4191 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.idsa.in Produced by: Magnum Custom Publishing (A Div. of Magnum Books Pvt Ltd) Registered Office: C-27B, Gangotri Enclave Alaknanda, New Delhi-110 019 Tel.: +91-11-42143062, +91-9811097054 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.magnumbooks.org All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, sorted in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photo-copying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). The views expressed in this volume are those of the authors. They do not either reflect the views of the Government of India or the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). iv Contents Foreword by N.S. Sisodia vii 1. Fault Lines in the Nascent Partnership: India-US Relations under the Obama Presidency 1 - Thomas Mathew 2. Reasonable Expectation or Carried Away by Hope? An American’s View of the Upcoming India-US Relationship 33 - Steven Hoffman 3. Re-focusing on India-US Economic Relations 43 - G. Balachandran and Cherian Samuel 4. The Obama Administration and Nuclear Issues 63 - Rajiv Nayan 5. Counter-proliferation under Obama: Will Bush’s ‘Forward Policy’ be Reversed? 79 - A. Vinod Kumar 6. US Policy towards Afghanistan under Obama Administration and Possible Indian Responses 95 - Shanthie D’Souza 7. US Policy towards Pakistan and Possible Indian Responses 105 - Priyanka Singh 8. The Obama Administration’s Energy Agenda: Vision and Challenges 121 - Samuel C. Rajiv v Contents 9. Obama’s China Policy and Emerging Trends in Sino-US Relations 135 - Jagannath P. Panda 10. The Indian-American Diaspora: A Bridge Between Two Democracies 147 - Cherian Samuel Appendix I 153 Appendix II 159 Appendix III 165 Appendix IV 169 About the Contributors 175 vi Foreword The Presidency of George W. Bush has been described as the best years of India-US relations. During his incumbency, mutual suspicion of the Cold War years was finally laid to rest. Many of the barriers that were erected against India after it conducted a nuclear test in 1998 were dismantled and the two nations forged a strategic partnership based on shared values and common security concerns. The unprecedented impetus to this partnership was provided partly by the personal commitment of Bush and that of the Indian Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh. Both leaders gave an overriding priority to developing stronger ties between their two countries and invested enormous political capital and personal energy in achieving this goal. The framework for this partnership covered a wide spectrum including defence, nuclear energy, space, high technology, trade, education and agriculture. The highlight of the strategic partnership was the India-US nuclear deal which ended over two decades of India’s nuclear isolation. The election of the new US President, Barack Obama, has, however, raised some doubts about the traction that the bilateral relations would gain under his leadership. The uncertainty has been fuelled by a perception held by many in India that Democratic presidents have traditionally not been favourable to India. Barack Obama’s election promise to make a radical departure from the policies of his predecessor has added to this uncertainty. His assertion that there is a compelling need to regain American leadership in the world and chart a different course on terrorism, nuclear proliferation, climate change, etc., has swelled the ranks of sceptics who see a downward trend in India-US relations under the Obama administration. vii Foreword How would these shifts in the priorities of the new US administration impact on India-US relations? This collection of essays attempts to assess the future direction and character of President Obama’s approach to a range of security and foreign policy issues. Each article examines the pronouncements of Barack Obama on the issues dealt with from the days of his election campaign, and traces the current course of his policies, their possible implications for India and its relationship with the US. The authors discuss both positive and negative trends that are likely to develop in the next phase of India-US relations. Their essays also examine the problem areas that can create irritants in this relationship and potentially reverse the momentum gained so far. Thomas Mathew argues that the declared priorities of President Obama, evident from his statements as a Senator and those made during the run up to the US Presidential election, do not augur well for the bilateral relations. The policies the administration has so far adopted have only substantiated the view that India would not figure prominently in Washington’s strategic calculus. The momentum in the bilateral relations achieved during the presidency of Bush would therefore be difficult to sustain. India and the US could likely find themselves on opposite sides on many issues such as nuclear non- proliferation, Washington’s reluctance to hold Pakistan accountable for encouraging terror strikes on India, and extending to it arms supplies that have little application in the fight against terror. But a serious downturn in the relationship could be arrested by the need to engage a rising India, the lucrative Indian arms market, and the steadily strengthening economic and cultural ties. Mathew concludes that the Obama years would most likely be remembered at best for a placid progress in the relationship. Not rejecting outright such negative trends and their potential as spoilers, Steve Hoffman paints a more hopeful picture by arguing that the Obama administration’s pragmatism and embrace of complexity viii Foreword should be a serious basis for sustaining the momentum achieved in Indo-US relations. Though he does not expect President Obama to follow the policy of exceptionalism favoured by his predecessor, he finds hope in Obama’s realist thinking which could prompt the President to give India-US relations sufficient importance on the basis of convergent US-India interests. Though shared values like democracy may still retain some influence, Obama could be expected to focus more on shared interests as the fulcrum of the relationship. The fact that there are many shared interests gives room for optimism, he argues. What are these interests and where would they converge or conflict? Most essays in this compendium analyse individual policy areas that could drive this relationship. These include larger policy issues like the nature of the economic relationship, climate change, non-proliferation, as well as the role of the Indian diaspora. Of equal interest to India would be US policy towards Pakistan and Afghanistan, which would have significant implications for New Delhi, and its own policies towards these two neighbours. Similarly, the nature of US engagement with China under President Obama could have profound implications for India-US relations. Economic relations are a vital component of India-US relations. G. Balachandran and Cherian Samuel point out that the obstacles in this relationship, such as the slow pace of reforms in India, would need to be addressed for the partnership to gain further traction. For this to happen, they argue, both sides have to take a long-term view of the benefit of strengthening their economic relations.