Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Coorow

February 2016 February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Coorow

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This document has been published by the Department of Planning. Any representation, statement, opinion or advice expressed or implied in this publication is made in good faith and on the basis that the Government, its employees and agents are not liable for any damage or loss whatsoever which may occur as a result of action taken or not taken, as the case may be, in respect of any representation, statement, opinion or advice referred to herein. Professional advice should be obtained before applying the information contained in this document to particular circumstances.

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Published February 2016 website: www.planning.wa.gov.au email: [email protected] tel: 08 6551 9000 fax: 08 6551 9001 National Relay Service: 13 36 77 infoline: 1800 626 477

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1. Introduction 2. Settlement land-use mapping The Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis The Department of Planning (DoP) has prepared provides a broad overview of the existing and mapping that captures the spatial extents of current future land capacity of settlements in the Mid West, and future land use in applicable settlements. Gascoyne and Goldfields-Esperance regions Within the Shire of Coorow, this includes: with respect to forecast population growth. In particular, it examines land identified for residential, • Coorow (Map 1); commercial and industrial development. • Green Head (Map 2); and The purpose of this document is to present the • land-use mapping and associated analysis as it Leeman (Map 3). relates to the applicable settlements in the Shire of Further context on how this mapping has been Coorow local government area. developed is provided below. Notably, the analysis suggests there is sufficient land capable of substantial further development (based on the current extents of zoned residential 2.1 Current and future land use land and land identified for future residential purposes) to cater for the population growth For the purpose of this study, the mapping anticipated in the Western Australia Tomorrow categorises current and future land uses into 2026 population forecasts for the Shire of Coorow. broad land-use types. It effectively rationalises and consolidates existing zones and reserves in The information presented in this document may local planning schemes with intended future land provide a basis for a range of regional and local uses identified in a number of strategic documents, strategic planning including: including local planning strategies and structure plans. • to assist regional planning and provide direction for strategic infrastructure The areas identified on the maps are based on the coordination; general consideration of: • to inform the preparation and/or review of • current zonings and reservations within local planning strategies, schemes and applicable local planning schemes; and structure plans; and • other strategic planning documents • for more detailed land supply analysis, including local planning strategies, including further investigation into the structure plans, layout plans and/or growth infrastructure requirements to service plans where relevant. potential development of the future land supply. With respect to this, the extent of current land uses generally reflect that of applicable existing zones Given the dynamic nature of planning and and reserves in current local planning schemes; development, it is intended that this paper will be and future land uses generally reflect where land amended periodically to reflect future updates to has been identified in other documents for a local planning instruments as relevant. different (typically more intensive) land use than that identified in the current scheme. Notwithstanding this, the information contained in this document has been prepared for guidance purposes only.

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Planning instruments that have informed the preparation of the settlement land-use mapping within the Shire of Coorow include the:

• Shire of Coorow Local Planning Scheme No. 3; and

• Shire of Coorow Local Planning Strategy 2015.

As a general guide, a broad description of what each land-use category considers is provided below:

Areas that are predominantly currently zoned in relevant local planning Residential schemes for residential land uses

Areas that have been identified predominantly for future residential land Future residential uses through relevant strategic planning processes

Areas that are predominantly currently zoned in relevant local planning Rural residential schemes for rural residential land uses

Future rural Areas that have been identified predominantly for future rural residential residential land uses through relevant strategic planning processes

Rural Areas that are predominantly currently zoned in relevant local planning smallholdings schemes for rural smallholdings land uses

Future rural Areas that have been identified predominantly for future rural smallholdings smallholdings land uses through relevant strategic planning processes

Areas that are predominantly currently zoned in relevant local planning Commercial schemes for commercial land uses

Future Areas that have been identified predominantly for future commercial land commercial uses through relevant strategic planning processes

Areas that are predominantly currently zoned in relevant local planning Industrial schemes for industrial land uses

Areas that have been identified predominantly for future industrial land Future industrial uses through relevant strategic planning processes

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Areas that are predominantly currently zoned in relevant local planning Rural schemes for rural land uses

Areas that have been identified predominantly for future rural land uses Future rural through relevant strategic planning processes

Infrastructure and Areas that are predominantly currently reserved in relevant local planning public purposes schemes for infrastructure and/or public purposes

Future Areas that have been identified predominantly for future infrastructure infrastructure and and/or public purposes through relevant strategic planning processes public purposes

Areas that are predominantly currently reserved in relevant local planning Recreation schemes for recreation purposes

Areas that have been identified predominantly for future recreation Future recreation purposes through relevant strategic planning processes

Areas that are predominantly currently reserved in relevant local planning Conservation schemes for conservation purposes

Future Areas that have been identified predominantly for future conservation conservation purposes through relevant strategic planning processes

Areas that have been identified through relevant strategic planning processes where alternative future land uses may be considered subject Investigation area to further investigation. This may include areas from plans in preparation or in draft form

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2.2 Development status

To gain a general understanding of the potential Table 1 summarises the development status of capacity of currently zoned and potential each applicable land-use category for all relevant future-zoned land within each settlement, a settlements, representing a set of total figures for broad assessment has been undertaken of the the entire local government area. It consolidates development status of applicable land identified all data from Tables 2 to 4, which summarise the for residential, commercial, industrial, rural development status of each applicable land-use residential and rural smallholdings purposes. category as it relates to the individual settlements. Generally, the assessment involved a visual Please note that the figures include the future interpretation of aerial photography and cadastral residential area within the Shire of Carnamah on information. the Leeman map.

This assessment has been undertaken for those settlements where the applicable land uses occur within the map extents.

Applicable areas within the map extents have been assessed and considered as being ‘developed’ or ‘capable of substantial further development’ as described below.

Developed: ‘developed’ land is broadly considered as land where development exists or where the necessary infrastructure and services to accommodate development exist. Subdivision is generally consistent with its zoning, however existing urban areas that could potentially accommodate increases in density through urban infill are considered to be ‘developed.’

Capable of substantial further development: Land ‘capable of substantial further development’ consists of undeveloped or underdeveloped land on greenfield sites, where subdivision reflective of its zoning is yet to exist. In some instances however, land may have conditional subdivision approval or be part of a broader structure planning process that still needs to be finalised. It is important to note that the development of areas that are currently considered to be capable of substantial further development may be subject to a number of constraints; including scheme amendments, structure planning, infrastructure provision, environmental and heritage issues.

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MapMid W 1:e sCoorowt Region land Sett luseeme mapnts

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Base information supplied by Western Australian Land Information Authority LI 782-2015-1 9 Leeman February 2016 Central Regions Land Capacity Analysis Shire of Coorow

Table 1: Shire of Coorow - development status of land in relevant settlements1

Capable of Total Developed (ha) substantial further development (ha) Residential 194 88 106 Future residential 139 0 139 Residential and 333 88 245 future residential Rural residential 20 18 2 Future rural residential 0 0 0 Rural residential and 20 18 2 future rural residential Rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Rural smallholdings and 0 0 0 future rural smallholdings Commercial 9 6 3 Future commercial 0 0 0 Commercial and 9 6 3 future commercial Industrial 65 30 35 Future industrial 39 0 39 Industrial and 104 30 74 future industrial

1 Figures include the future residential area within the Shire of Carnamah on the Leeman map.

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Table 2: Coorow - development status of land

Capable of Total Developed (ha) substantial further development (ha) Residential 46 12 34 Future residential 47 0 47 Residential and 93 12 81 future residential Rural residential 20 18 2 Future rural residential 0 0 0 Rural residential and 20 18 2 future rural residential Rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Rural smallholdings and 0 0 0 future rural smallholdings Commercial 4 2 2 Future commercial 0 0 0 Commercial and 4 2 2 future commercial Industrial 22 9 13 Future industrial 3 0 3 Industrial and 25 9 16 future industrial

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Table 3: Green Head - development status of land

Capable of Total Developed (ha) substantial further development (ha) Residential 69 45 24 Future residential 49 0 49 Residential and 118 45 73 future residential Rural residential 0 0 0 Future rural residential 0 0 0 Rural residential and 0 0 0 future rural residential Rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Rural smallholdings and 0 0 0 future rural smallholdings Commercial 2 2 0 Future commercial 0 0 0 Commercial and 2 2 0 future commercial Industrial 22 8 14 Future industrial 19 0 19 Industrial and 41 8 33 future industrial

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Table 4: Leeman - development status of land1

Capable of Total Developed (ha) substantial further development (ha) Residential 79 31 48 Future residential 43 0 43 Residential and 122 31 91 future residential Rural residential 0 0 0 Future rural residential 0 0 0 Rural residential and 0 0 0 future rural residential Rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 0 0 0 Rural smallholdings and 0 0 0 future rural smallholdings Commercial 3 2 1 Future commercial 0 0 0 Commercial and 3 2 1 future commercial Industrial 21 13 8 Future industrial 17 0 17 Industrial and 38 13 25 future industrial

1 Figures include the future residential area within the Shire of Carnamah.

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3. Capacity analysis

The assessment of the development status of data for such an application. It is considered current and future land uses enables a broad-level that further investigation is required to ascertain capacity analysis of the residential development representative rates of employment density for potential of land within the Shire of Coorow. The commercial and industrial lands in regional areas, Department of Planning has prepared such an and accordingly a capacity analysis of commercial analysis that: and industrial lands is not included in this paper at this stage. • estimates the potential additional population yield of current and future residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings lands for each relevant 3.1 Potential capacity of residential, settlement; and rural residential and rural smallholdings lands • considers possible implications with regard to the local government area’s residential For residential, rural residential and rural land situation in the context of the Western smallholdings land uses, potential capacity Australia Tomorrow 2026 population has been calculated according to scenarios that forecasts. assume different average development densities that are applicable to each of those land uses. With respect to this, the tables in section 3.1 Potential additional lot and population yields have summarise the estimated additional capacity of been estimated for each respective current and each applicable land-use category for relevant future land use category as they relate to each settlements within the Shire of Coorow. Further relevant settlement in the Shire of Coorow. analysis is presented in section 3.2 that relates this information to the Western Australia Tomorrow Table 5 presents the total potential additional lot 2026 population forecasts. and population yields for all relevant settlements across the local government area. In interpreting the outputs of the analysis, it is important to note that additional capacity is Tables 6 to 8 present the potential additional lot assumed to be accommodated exclusively in areas and population yields for individual settlements that are currently considered as being capable relevant to this analysis. of substantial further development. This means that the estimates generally do not account for (Note: Table 5 consolidates all data from Tables possible land capacity increases due to infill and/ 6 to 8, and essentially represents a set of total or redevelopment of existing developed areas, figures for the entire local government area.) and from this perspective are considered broad in nature and is likely to underestimate the potential overall capacity.

A capacity analysis for commercial and industrial lands necessarily requires assumptions to be made on employment density. There are currently limitations in the available data required in order to make reasonable assumptions in this regard. In particular, relatively small statistical sample sizes – something that is prevalent in regional areas – compromise the reliability of using the available

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Table 5: Shire of Coorow - estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings lands deemed capable of substantial further development in relevant settlements1

Estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings Estimated lands deemed capable of substantial further development potential Average population Relevant land-use category/ density / Potential lot yield from Area (ha) ies average lot yield2 additional size lots3 R10 689 1,723 Residential 106 R20 1,378 3,445 R30 2,067 5,168 R10 904 2,260 Future residential 139 R20 1,807 4,518 R30 2,711 6,778 R10 1,593 3,983 Residential and 245 R20 3,185 7,963 future residential R30 4,778 11,946 1 ha 2 5 Rural residential 2 2 ha 1 3 4 ha 0 0 1 ha 0 0 Future rural residential 0 2 ha 0 0 4 ha 0 0 1 ha 2 5 Rural residential and 2 2 ha 1 3 future rural residential 4 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings and 0 20 ha 0 0 future rural smallholdings 40 ha 0 0

1 Figures include the future residential area within the Shire of Carnamah on the Leeman map. 2 For residential land, the 35 per cent of land necessary to support land requirements for public open space and streets (Liveable Neighbourhoods, 2007) has been factored into these figures. For rural residential and rural smallholdings lands, a 25 per cent allowance from gross land areas has been applied to account for the relevant land requirements to support development for these particular land uses. 3 The population yield per dwelling is calculated at 2.5 people per dwelling unit (average people per household for the Mid West SA3 – Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2011 Census).

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Table 6: Coorow - estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings lands deemed capable of substantial further development

Estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings Estimated lands deemed capable of substantial further development potential Average population Relevant land-use category/ density / Potential lot yield from Area (ha) ies average lot yield1 additional size lots2 R10 221 553 Residential 34 R20 442 1,105 R30 663 1,658 R10 306 765 Future residential 47 R20 611 1,528 R30 917 2,293 R10 527 1,318 Residential and 81 R20 1,053 2,633 future residential R30 1,580 3,951 1 ha 2 5 Rural residential 2 2 ha 1 3 4 ha 0 0 1 ha 0 0 Future rural residential 0 2 ha 0 0 4 ha 0 0 1 ha 2 5 Rural residential and 2 2 ha 1 3 future rural residential 4 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings and 0 20 ha 0 0 future rural smallholdings 40 ha 0 0

1 For residential land, the 35 per cent of land necessary to support land requirements for public open space and streets (Liveable Neighbourhoods, 2007) has been factored into these figures. For rural residential and rural smallholdings lands, a 25 per cent allowance from gross land areas has been applied to account for the relevant land requirements to support development for these particular land uses. 2 The population yield per dwelling is calculated at 2.5 people per dwelling unit (average people per household for the Mid West SA3 – Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2011 Census).

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Table 7: Green Head - estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings lands deemed capable of substantial further development

Estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings Estimated lands deemed capable of substantial further development potential Average population Relevant land-use category/ density / Potential lot yield from Area (ha) ies average lot yield1 additional size lots2 R10 156 390 Residential 24 R20 312 780 R30 468 1,170 R10 319 798 Future residential 49 R20 637 1,593 R30 956 2,390 R10 475 1,188 Residential and 73 R20 949 2,373 future residential R30 1,424 3,560 1 ha 0 0 Rural residential 0 2 ha 0 0 4 ha 0 0 1 ha 0 0 Future rural residential 0 2 ha 0 0 4 ha 0 0 1 ha 0 0 Rural residential and 0 2 ha 0 0 future rural residential 4 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings and 0 20 ha 0 0 future rural smallholdings 40 ha 0 0

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Table 8: Leeman - estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings lands deemed capable of substantial further development1

Estimated capacity of residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings Estimated lands deemed capable of substantial further development potential Average population Relevant land-use category/ density / Potential lot yield from Area (ha) ies average lot yield2 additional size lots3 R10 312 780 Residential 48 R20 624 1,560 R30 936 2,340 R10 280 700 Future residential 43 R20 559 1,398 R30 839 2,098 R10 592 1,480 Residential and 91 R20 1,183 2,958 future residential R30 1,775 4,438 1 ha 0 0 Rural residential 0 2 ha 0 0 4 ha 0 0 1 ha 0 0 Future rural residential 0 2 ha 0 0 4 ha 0 0 1 ha 0 0 Rural residential and 0 2 ha 0 0 future rural residential 4 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Future rural smallholdings 0 20 ha 0 0 40 ha 0 0 8 ha 0 0 Rural smallholdings and 0 20 ha 0 0 future rural smallholdings 40 ha 0 0

1 Figures include the future residential area within the Shire of Carnamah. 2 For residential land, the 35 per cent of land necessary to support land requirements for public open space and streets (Liveable Neighbourhoods, 2007) has been factored into these figures. For rural residential and rural smallholdings lands, a 25 per cent allowance from gross land areas has been applied to account for the relevant land requirements to support development for these particular land uses. 3 The population yield per dwelling is calculated at 2.5 people per dwelling unit (average people per household for the Mid West SA3 – Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2011 Census).

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Based on the potential population yield calculations These figures assume that all additional population in Table 5, estimated total population figures for in the local government area is accommodated on the Shire of Coorow are provided for low, medium residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings and high density development scenarios, which are lands deemed capable of substantial further presented in Table 9. Within each scenario, two development within the settlements considered. subsets are considered:

• ‘A’ considers the potential additional population yield of all residential, rural residential and rural smallholdings land capable of further development at the average density or lot sizes attributable to that particular scenario; and

• ‘B’ considers the potential additional population yield of all residential, future residential, rural residential, future rural residential, rural smallholdings and future rural smallholdings land capable of further development at the average density or lot sizes attributable to that particular scenario.

Table 9: Shire of Coorow - estimated potential population capacity

Estimated Scenario1 potential Estimated Current population (average density of residential land / average total population2 yield from lot size of rural residential land / average lot population4 size of rural smallholdings land) additional lots3 1. Low density scenario 1A 1,064 1,723 2,787 (R10 / 4 ha / 40 ha) 1B 1,064 3,983 5,047 2. Medium density scenario 2A 1,064 3,448 4,512 (R20 / 2 ha / 20 ha) 2B 1,064 7,966 9,030 3. High density scenario 3A 1,064 5,173 6,237 (R30 / 1 ha / 8 ha) 3B 1,064 11,951 13,015

1 Scenarios consider the estimated potential population capacity of the Shire of Coorow through estimating the potential additional population capacity of land within all relevant settlements with a residential land use that has been deemed capable of substantial further development. 2 Shire of Coorow 2014 Preliminary Estimated Residential Population (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 3218.0 – Regional Population Growth 2013-14). 3 As per the relevant assumptions as described for Table 5. 4 The ‘estimated total population’ is the sum of the ‘current population’ and the ‘estimated potential population yield from additional lots’ column.

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3.2 Comparison of potential capacity 3.2.1 Estimated additional residential land estimates with the Western Australia requirements to accommodate population Tomorrow 2026 population forecasts forecasts

Western Australia Tomorrow (Western Australian Table 11 presents estimates for the amount Planning Commission, 2015) contains population of residential land that would be required to forecasts produced by the State Demographer and accommodate the additional population for each of are considered to be the State’s official population the population forecasts. Estimates are presented forecasts. according to three different average densities of residential development, being R10, R20 and R30. Table 10 presents the Western Australia Tomorrow 2026 population forecasts for the Shire of Coorow. These estimates are compared to the total of For further information on these forecasts, all current residential and future residential please refer to http://www.planning.wa.gov.au/ land identified in relevant Shire of Coorow publications/6194.asp. settlements as being capable of substantial further development. The figures under the ‘surplus’ The figures in the ‘additional population’ column column indicate the magnitude of the potential are the difference between the 2026 forecast surplus of residential land from the extents population and the Australian Bureau of Statistics currently identified once the additional forecast 2014 Preliminary Estimated Residential Population population has been allowed for. A negative figure for the Shire of Coorow (1,064). in this column indicates a shortfall in the identified areas of residential lands with respect to that Significantly, these forecasts provide a point of required to accommodate the additional population comparison for interpreting the potential capacities from the relevant forecast. of residential land as determined through this analysis. The estimates in Table 11 assume:

• all population growth occurs on residential and future residential land that has been identified as being capable of substantial Table 10: Shire of Coorow - Western future development in this analysis. Australia Tomorrow 2026 population To keep the calculations relatively forecasts (WAPC, 2015) straightforward, they do not consider additional population being accommodated on rural residential or rural smallholdings 2026 WA Tomorrow Additional lands, nor do they take into account forecast forecast bands population potential increases in population occurring population due to infill development. They therefore Band A 950 -114 likely overestimate residential land Band B 1,010 -54 requirements; Band C 1,060 -4 • a 35 per cent allowance from gross land Band D 1,100 36 areas for various requirements to support Band E 1,160 96 development (e.g. public open space, streets, other infrastructure); and

• the number of people per dwelling remains constant.

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Based on the current extents of zoned residential Please note that this component of the analysis land and land identified for future residential only considers the local government as a whole purposes, this analysis suggests that there is a as opposed to each individual settlement. This is sufficient amount of land capable of substantial primarily due to the alignment of available data further development to cater for the population inputs at this geographic scale. growth anticipated in the Western Australia Tomorrow 2026 population forecasts for the Shire of Coorow.

Table 11: Shire of Coorow - estimated additional residential land requirements to accommodate population forecasts

Residential1

R10 average density R20 average density R30 average density Current and future land capable of Est. land Est. land Est. land WA Tomorrow Additional substantial required required required forecast bands population further de- to accom. Surplus to accom. Surplus to accom. Surplus 4 4 4 velopment additional (ha) additional (ha) additional (ha) (ha)2 population population population (ha)3 (ha)3 (ha)3

Band A -114 245 0 245 0 245 0 245 Band B -54 245 0 245 0 245 0 245 Band C -4 245 0 245 0 245 0 245 Band D 36 245 2 243 1 244 1 244 Band E 96 245 6 239 3 242 2 243

1 These estimates assume that all population growth occurs on residential and future residential land that has been identified as being capable of substantial future development in this analysis.To keep the calculations relatively straightforward, they do not consider additional population being accommodated on rural residential or rural smallholdings lands, nor do they take into account potential increases in population occurring due to infill development. The estimates are therefore likely to overestimate residential land requirements. 2 Total area of current and future residential lands capable of substantial further development for entire local government area as per relevant figures from Table 1. 3 A 35 per cent allowance from gross land areas to support land requirements for public open space and streets (Liveable Neighbourhoods, 2007) and a population yield per dwelling of 2.5 people per dwelling unit (average people per household for the Mid West SA3 – ABS 2011 Census) have been factored into the estimated areas of residential land required to accommodate forecast additional populations. 4 A positive figure in this column indicates that the additional population under the relevant population forecast should be able to be accommodated within the areas of residential and future residential land currently identified, without additional residential land being required. A negative figure represents the shortfall in the identified areas of residential lands with respect to that required to accommodate the additional population.

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