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What future for electric light commercial vehicles ? : a prospective economic and operational analysis of electric vans for business users, with a focus on urban freight Pierre Camilleri To cite this version: Pierre Camilleri. What future for electric light commercial vehicles ? : a prospective economic and operational analysis of electric vans for business users, with a focus on urban freight. Infrastructures de transport. Université Paris-Est, 2018. English. NNT : 2018PESC1105. tel-02131030 HAL Id: tel-02131030 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-02131030 Submitted on 16 May 2019 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. DOCTORAL THESIS IN TRANSPORTATION AT THE UNIVERSITY OF PARIS-EST DOCTORAL SCHOOL "VILLE, TRANSPORT ET TERRITOIRES" WHAT FUTURE FOR ELECTRIC LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES? A PROSPECTIVE ECONOMIC AND OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS OF ELECTRIC VANS FOR BUSINESS USERS, WITH A FOCUS ON URBAN FREIGHT Pierre CAMILLERI Under the direction of Laetitia DABLANC COMPOSITION OF THE JURY: Laetitia DABLANC, Research Director, IFSTTAR (Thesis Director) Jing DONG, Associate Professor, Iowa State University (Rapporteur) Matthieu DE LAPPARENT, Associate Professor, Haute Ecole d'Ingénierie et de Gestion du Canton de Vaud (Rapporteur) Cathy MACHARIS, Professor, Vrije Universiteit Brussel (Examiner) Patrick PLÖTZ, Researcher, Fraunhofer Institut (Examiner) INVITED MEMBER: Pierre EYKERMAN, Researcher, Renault (Company supervisor) ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my great gratitude to my thesis director, Laetitia Dablanc, and my company supervisors, for some time My-Linh Liburski Tran and then Pierre Eykerman, for their valuable and constructive suggestions throughout my research and their availability. It is a great honor to have Jing Dong, Matthieu de Lapparent, Cathy Macharis and Patrick Plötz on my thesis jury. I would also like to thank François Combes, Virginie Boutueil, Jean Grébert, Hélène Wiedeman and Gilles Abdelaziz for their quality advices which were of great help to me. I enjoyed working with Philippe Lepaisant and Eduin Le-Nain, and I thank them for the opportunities they gave me and the trust they placed in me. I thank Jens Klauenberg, Jardar Andersen, Sönke Behrends, Ivan Sanchez-Diaz and their teams for their warm welcome, as well as the DAAD and the MetroFreight project for the financial support that allowed my international study visits. I would also like to thank all those who responded positively to my requests and received me for an interview. I warmly thank all my colleagues, fellow PhD students and my friends, for the rich discussions and good times we shared during these three years. Finally, a very special gratitude goes out to my family and my girlfriend, Mathilde, for their constant support throughout the thesis. 3 RÉSUMÉ Le marché des véhicules électriques est animé par une dynamique très positive. Il s'agit cependant essentiellement d'un marché de niche. Il est donc légitime de s’interroger quant à son avenir. D'une part, cette dynamique est portée par de fortes préoccupations environnementales et bénéficie d'un large soutien des autorités publiques. Les constructeurs automobiles ont ces dernières années fortement investi dans cette technologie, les progrès technologiques sont rapides et offrent des perspectives intéressantes. D'autre part, des subventions conséquentes sont aujourd’hui nécessaires pour permettre aux véhicules électriques d’être compétitifs. Il est inévitable que ces subventions diminuent si le marché grandit. Deux mécanismes opposés sont donc en jeu et rendent incertain le développement du marché des véhicules électriques pour les années à venir. Notre recherche propose d'analyser ces mécanismes pour les véhicules utilitaires légers, et plus particulièrement pour le transport urbain de marchandises. Les besoins des entreprises de transport de marchandises sont évalués à travers une quarantaine d'entretiens, menés dans quatre pays européens et analysés à la lumière de la théorie de la diffusion de l'innovation. Ces entretiens mettent en évidence les obstacles opérationnels et économiques à l'utilisation de véhicules électriques, qui sont liés à la technologie elle-même mais aussi à sa nouveauté. Une approche quantitative complète cette étude. Elle s’appuie sur un modèle de prédiction de parts de marché, qui quantifie la façon dont les contraintes économiques et opérationnelles évoluent avec les développements technologiques. Ces contraintes sont mesurées par deux indicateurs: l'adéquation de l'autonomie du véhicule avec son usage et les comparaisons de coûts totaux de possession (TCO). Une originalité du modèle est qu’il traite le montant des subventions à l’achat d’un véhicule électrique comme une variable endogène, qui s’adapte dynamiquement aux évolutions du marché. Afin de compenser le manque de données disponibles sur les usages des véhicules utilitaires, un modèle statistique a été développé. Ce modèle permet d’exploiter au mieux les données d'une enquête sur les véhicules utilitaires légers en France, menée par le service de la donnée et des études statistiques (SDES) du Ministère de la Transition Écologique et Solidaire. 5 Ces analyses confirment que l'évolution du marché du véhicule électrique n'est pas certaine et qu'elle est aujourd'hui extrêmement dépendante des aides publiques. Même dans des scénarios de soutien financier public continu, il est peu probable que l'on observe une croissance exponentielle du marché. Plutôt, le marché augmentera doucement pendant de nombreuses années à venir, le temps que la technologie s’affranchisse de sa dépendance à l'égard du soutien financier. Par exemple, notre scénario de référence prévoit une part de marché des fourgonnettes électriques de l’ordre de 13% en 2032. Mots-clés : Véhicules électriques ; Véhicules utilitaires légers ; Transport de marchandises ; Prévision de la demande ; Modélisation des usages 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The electric vehicle market is driven by a very positive dynamic. However, it is essentially a niche market. It is therefore legitimate to wonder about its future. On the one hand, this dynamic is driven by strong environmental concerns and enjoys broad support from public authorities. Car manufacturers have invested heavily in this technology in recent years. Technological progress is rapid and offers interesting prospects. On the other hand, substantial subsidies are currently needed to enable electric vehicles to be competitive. It is inevitable that these subsidies will decrease if the market grows. Two opposing mechanisms are therefore at stake and make the development of the electric vehicle market uncertain for the years to come. Our research proposes to analyze these mechanisms for light commercial vehicles, and more particularly for urban freight transport. The needs of freight transport companies are assessed through some forty interviews conducted in four European countries and analyzed in the light of innovation diffusion theory. These interviews highlight the operational and economic obstacles to the use of electric vehicles, which are linked to the technology itself but also to its novelty. A quantitative approach completes this study. It is based on a market share prediction model, which quantifies how economic and operational constraints evolve with technological developments. These constraints are measured by two indicators: the vehicle's range adequacy given its use and total cost of ownership (TCO) comparisons. An original feature of the model is that it treats the amount of subsidies for the purchase of an electric vehicle as an endogenous variable that dynamically adapts to market developments. In order to compensate for the lack of available data on commercial vehicle uses, a statistical model has been developed. This model makes the best use of data from a survey on light commercial vehicles in France, conducted by the statistical department of the Ministry of the Environment (SDES). These analyses confirm that the development of the electric vehicle market is not certain and that it is currently extremely dependent on public support. Even in scenarios of continued financial support from public administrations, exponential market growth is unlikely. Rather, the market will grow slowly for many years to come, the time for technology to overcome its 7 dependence on public financial support. For example, our reference scenario forecasts a 13% market share for electric vans in 2032. Keywords: Electric vehicles; Light commercial vehicles; Freight transport; Demand forecasting; Usage modeling 8 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................................................... 3 RÉSUMÉ ..........................................................................................................................5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................... 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................ 9 LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................
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