ABSTRACT Title of dissertation: Corruption, Reform, and Revolution in Africa’s Third Wave of Protest Jacob S. Lewis, Doctor of Philosophy, 2019 Dissertation directed by: Professor John F. McCauley Department of Government and Politics What explains diverging calls for reform and revolution in Africa over the past ten years? African countries have made substantial strides toward actual democratic devel- opment, including a concerted effort to address corruption. As African democracies have strengthened, calls by citizens for anti-corruption reform have grown, highlighting the progress that is being made. Yet, in recent years, some anti-corruption movements have called instead for revolution - completely replacing the state or seceding alto- gether. What explains these calls for revolution? I argue that we need to understand how different types of corruption shape contentious goals. When corruption generates material benefits, citizens lose trust in politicians but do not lose trust in the system. In response, they call for reform, seeking to improve the system. When corruption gener- ates systemic benefits (distorting the system altogether), citizens lose trust in the insti- tutions and instead call for revolution. I test this using individual-level data from survey experiments as well as large-n surveys, and group-level data using statistical analysis of protest events as well as case studies. I find strong support that types of corruption matter greatly in shaping contentious politics in Africa. CORRUPTION, REFORM, AND REVOLUTION IN AFRICA’S THIRD WAVE OF PROTEST by Jacob S. Lewis Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Maryland, College Park in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2019 Advisory Committee: Professor John McCauley, Chair/Adviser Professor Mark Lichbach Professor David Cunningham Professor Jóhanna Birnir Professor Edward Lemay © 2019 Jacob Scott Lewis ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Foreword This dissertation is the product of a decade of study, work, and interest in the destructive impact of corruption in Africa. My interest in African corruption emerged from a simple question that I asked while writing my master’s thesis: given the abundant wealth of the African continent, why are African countries so poor and conflict-ridden? One need only scratch the surface on any given question about development, poverty, or conflict to encounter the stain of corruption lurking below. I was able to cultivate hands-on experience with this question while working on democratization and post-conflict sta- bilization in Africa. At the core of this work is a human story that is both troubling and all too common: government corruption in developing countries metastasizes like can- cer, slowly capturing and then deteriorating the ability of government institutions to fulfill their promised duties. When governments fail, they do not ‘reset’ like a video game; instead, they persist, growing steadily worse. Through all of this, citizens are forced to survive in a country where, at best, the government is either increasingly un- interested in serving the people, and at worst, is actively predatory toward them. My fascination with corruption is that in many situations, corruption is the primary culprit responsible for the ongoing cycles of poverty, conflict, trust, and underdevelopment. Data Collection Data collection for this dissertation was supported by grants from the University of Maryland and the Association for the Study of Middle East and Africa, which allowed me to conduct fieldwork in Nigeria and South Africa. While in Nigeria, I worked with ii highly dedicated research assistants, and benefited from administrative support from Dr. Tunde Oseni and Mr. Akinyemi Stephen of Lead City University in Ibadan. I am grateful to my field researchers in Nigeria: Olusoji Ajao, Akanji Ajibola, Akuche Chukwuemieka, Agidi Emmanuel, Babs Iwalewa, and Prince Obada Olabode. In South Africa, I relied on the expertise of my enumerators, Yinlaifa Cocodia and Clement Mashinini, who not only conducted excellent survey research, but also provided me with a deeper understanding of South African politics. I further benefited from the ded- ication of several of my students at the University of Maryland in collecting novel data on corruption: Luke Navritil, Andrew Englander, and Maxine Turner. Personal Acknowledgements I am indebted to a huge number of individuals without whose support I would not have been able to arrive where I am. I am grateful to Michael Dobkowski, who fostered my intellectual and spiritual development when I was an undergraduate at Hobart & Wil- liam Smith Colleges. Michael showed me patience and gave me sage advice that ulti- mately shaped my view of what a faculty mentor could be. My dissertation advisor and overall spirit-guide, John McCauley, consistently went out of his way to provide excellent and hard-hitting feedback to my work. His support and guidance helped to inject much-needed clarity into my research design, as well as my professional growth. John has exercised commendable patience as he helped me de- velop as a scholar, reading draft after draft of my dissertation and other manuscripts. I really cannot thank him enough for his friendship and the words of encouragement following journal rejections. Working with John has been the highpoint of my time at iii the University of Maryland. My faculty mentor, Mark Lichbach, sat with me often and pushed me to ask – and answer – big questions. We are all, after all, working and thinking in the midst of things. In my fourth year, Stacy Kosko took me under her wing and extended the friendship and respect that helped shape me into an effective instructor. David Cunningham and Jóhanna Birnir have, throughout my career at the University of Maryland, provided excellent and challenging feedback to this dissertation and other works. My fellow doc- toral students, Daniel Siegel and Brandon Ives, provided invaluable feedback on the many drafts of this work, motivating me to always work harder and think deeper. I have spent countless hours with Dan and Brandon sipping coffee and navigating the tricky and perilous world of academia. I am indebted to – and have modeled myself after - my father, who is a paragon of erudition and kindness. Perhaps it was the constant presence of academic journals in the backseat of his car that drove me to enter into this field. Or perhaps it was our shared love of all things to do with accumulating knowledge. I will be proud to set my disser- tation next to his on the bookshelf. Similarly, my fierce and independent mother taught the value of seeing the world clearly and reckoning with it as it is. She has shown me what it means to be strong and to endure, even when it feels that all the chips are stacked against you. I am quite positive that she is the strongest person I know. I am grateful to and inspired by my brother, whose friendship means more than I could ever express, and of whom I am extremely proud. Tyke has supported me and encouraged me, and I couldn’t have asked for a better cheerleader. To my two brothers in spirit – Max Linden iv and Chris Rogers – thank you for the deep talks about fantasy, science fiction, and politics that both enlightened me and kept me sane. Of course, I could not have done any of this without my grandmother, Florence Lewis, who once asked, “what, you couldn’t have just been a lawyer?” Her support and love have filled my life, and I cher- ish our conversations deeply. Finally, my deepest gratitude belongs with my fiancée, Jordana, who has finally helped me start living and experiencing life rather than waiting for it to begin. She has provided support, comfort, and encouragement at the times when it was most needed. She put up with my frantic neurosis over manuscripts, research, and job talks, and tolerated my absence while I was in Nigeria and South Africa. She calms and centers me, and is more than I deserve. I love you, Vixie. v Dedication For Saul Lewis 1916 – 1989 vi Table of Contents Foreword ii Dedication vi List of Tables viii List of Figures x Introduction 1 A Theory of Corruption and Contention 20 Causal Linkages of Types of Corruption and Reform or Revolution 54 Cross-National Evidence Linking Types of Corruption to Reform or Revolution 88 Reform and Revolution at the Incident Level 116 Case Studies of Corruption, Reform, and Revolution 152 Putting the Pieces Together 195 Appendix A: Survey Experiment 206 Appendix B: Individual Level Data 208 Appendix C: Case Studies Materials 211 References 213 vii List of Tables Table 1 - Sampled States & Districts in Nigeria 60 Table 2 – Sampled Districts in South Africa 60 Table 3 - Material Treatments 62 Table 4 - Systemic Treatments 62 Table 5 - Treatment Balance in Nigeria 68 Table 6 - Treatment Balance in South Africa 69 Table 7 – Broken System T Test in Nigeria 70 Table 8 – Evaluations of the System in Nigeria 71 Table 9 – Average Treatment Effects on Trust in Nigeria 74 Table 10 – Manual Calculation of Mediated Effects 78 Table 11 - Broken System T Test in South Africa 81 Table 12 - Evaluations of the System in South Africa 82 Table 13 - Average Treatment Effects on Trust in South Africa 85 Table 14 - Expected Correlations 102 Table 15 - Corruption & Institutional Trust 103 Table 16 – Tactics and Goals in African Contentious Movements 108 Table 17 – Ordinal Cumulative Linked Mixed Model 110 Table 18 – Ordinal Cumulative Linked Mixed Model 114 Table 19 - Most Frequent Reform Goals 130 Table