International Strategic Review

National Institute of Advanced Studies International Strategic & Security Studies Programme (ISSSP) ISSSP Monthly International Strategic Review Nuclear I Maritime I Space I Delivery Platforms Vol. 4, Issue. 3 March 2017 International Strategic Review February 2017 India’s New Record: One Rocket, 104 Satellites February 2017 was a busy month for Space related activities in China, North Korea, Iran and India. About International Strategic & China’s DF-5C ballistic missile test with 10 MIRVs in early February was viewed as “intimidation signals” by the US, especially considering the tense situation in Security Studies Programme (ISSSP) the South China Sea. The PLA also released a video of its Rocket Force conducting an exercise with DF-16 medium range ballistic missile, which, with a range of 1,000 km, can easily target several countries in China’s neighbourhood in- The ISSSP is one of the oldest, active cluding the US military assets in Japan. Several reports in the Chinese official and vibrant groups within the National media hinted on the PLA stepping up preparedness for a possible military con- flict with the US as Trump signalled to follow more hard-line policy to counter Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS). China’s claims on the disputed South China Sea. Started in 1996 with a broad objective DPRK test fired an intermediate range ballistic missile into its eastern waters, of pursuing academic and policy violating UN Security Council’s resolutions banning testing of any ballistic mis- research related to national and sile technology. Musudan, the missile that was tested, has a range of 3000- international security issues, today the 4000 km covering entire Japan and the US military base in Guam. Also, com- ISSSP has a national and global mercial satellite imagery indicates a possible nuclear test in the near future. reputation on those issues it is engaged The US sanctions seem to have failed to curb Iran’s development of missile with. technology. Iran came under fire from the Trump administration after it con- firmed a ballistic missile test. The US administration imposed sanctions against 13 people and companies connected to Iran. Iran launched a surface to air missile days after the new US sanctions and followed it up by a successful launch With a right mix of senior scholars, full of their latest cruise missile. time faculty, doctoral and post Pakistan during February claimed India has built a nuclear city. Its Foreign doctoral fellows and young research Spokesperson, Nafees Zakaria said India has been conducting tests on inter- associates the ISSSP is one of the continental missile and has accumulated a stockpile of nuclear weapon under- mining the strategic balance of power in the region. A Chinese TV report, quot- largest programme as well within the ing a former Chinese Engineer mentioned about the transfer of nuclear tech- NIAS. nology by China to Pakistan. This Chinese report only reconfirms earlier refer- ences on the subject by other international resources on the issue of transfer of nuclear and missile technology to Pakistan by China. In terms of research and related But the real highlight in February was India setting a new record by launching activities the ISSSP is sui generis. The 104 satellites on single rocket. The ISRO has been consistently in the news mak- primary emphasis of the ISSSP research ing great strides with the most cost effective Mars mission in the world and its indigenously built cryogenic engine. Besides, the eleventh edition of Aero India is towards integrating complex was held at Air Force Station, Bengaluru from 14 to 18 Feb 2017, making way for elements of science and technology new international collaborations for India. One of the most significant an- with policy, organizational and nouncements at Aero India was the National Laboratories Limited (NAL)’s pro- institutional arrangements posal to revive three aircraft programmes- Saras aircraft, 70 seater aircraft programme and the NM5-100. Kaveri Ashok, Mrunalini Deshpande & RIffath Khaji Editors, ISR 2 March 2017, Vol.4, No.3 ISSSP Monthly International Strategic Review Nuclear I Space I Delivery Platforms Vol. 4, Issue. 3 March 2017 CHINA Contents Nuclear CNBC, 09 February, 2017 China 03 China’s nuclear missile policy put under strain by US plan DPRK 09 A decision by the United States to pursue Iran 13 a new breed of nuclear weapons could push China to reconsider its decades- Pakistan 25 long atomic policy, according to experts. The U.S. Defence Department recently India 30 received a recommendation that the government develop tactical nuclear weapons with "low yield" results that can be deployed within smaller battle- field areas. Tong Zhao, an associate in the Carnegie Endowment's Nuclear Pol- icy Program based in Beijing, told CNBC that this more flexible form of weapon would lower the threshold of nuclear use. "This will be seen by China as evi- dence of U.S. contemplating first use of nuclear weapons in a future crisis and will encourage China to consider pursu- 3 International Strategic Review ing similar capabilities that may under- range ballistic missile. First displayed at a mine the no-first-use policy," he said in an military parade in Beijing in 2015, the mis- email. China's "no-first-use policy" means sile is believed to have a range of 1,000 Beijing only demands the capability to kilometres, putting it within striking dis- ensure the launch of a nuclear missile, tance of Okinawa, home to several US after being hit first by an enemy nuclear military installations in Japan, Taiwan and strike. (China’s nuclear missile policy put the Philippines. under strain by US plan, CNBC, 09 Febru- ary, 2017, http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/09/chinas- The Rocket Force is a special contingent nuclear-missile-policy-put-under-strain-by- to handle range of missiles in its military's us-plan.html) arsenal. Several 10-wheeled mobile launch vehicles carrying the ballistic missiles were seen in the footage released to Delivery Vehicles: Missile show the training of Rocket Force missile brigade soldiers around the Spring Festi- val holiday. The participating units han- China's Rocket Force Holds Exercise with dled a number of scenarios, including New Ballistic Missile chemical/biological contamination, coun- According to NDTV, China's newly-formed tering satellite reconnaissance and elec- Rocket Force has conducted an exercise tronic jamming, state-run China Daily re- with advanced DF-16 medium-range ballis- ported today. tic missile that has a range of over 1,000 km and could target a number of coun- The crews practiced in multiple manoeu- tries in the neighbourhood, including In- vres, such as rapid loading, redeployment dia. Significantly the People's Liberation and launch sequence, though the video Army (PLA), which is secretive about its showed no missile actually being weapons systems, has released a video of launched. Two types of DF-16 appeared in the recent exercise of its troops employ- the exercise. The video represents the ing the advanced Dongfeng-16 medium- third time the DF-16 has been shown to the public. Though the PLA has never dis- closed its ballistic missiles' specifications, experts said the DF-16 poses a challenge to foreign military installations along the first island chain, which is what the Chi- nese military calls the series of islands that stretch from Japan in the north to Taiwan and the Philippines to the south, the report said. (China's Rocket Force Holds Exercise with New Ballistic Missile, NDTV, 07 February, 2017, http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/chinas- rocket-force-holds-exercise-with-new- ballistic-missile-1656644) Source: NDTV Russia may supply ten Su-35 fighter jets 4 March 2017, Vol.4, No.3 to China in 2017 The second batch of 10 Su-35 fighter jets China to sell new short-range missile to will be delivered to China this year and the foreign countries other 10 aircraft in 2018, a source in the According to Zee News, China plans to field of military and technical cooperation sell to foreign countries its new short- with foreign states told TASS. "The first range air-to-surface missile which can be four vehicles were supplied in late last mounted on drones and is designed for year and the second batch of 10 jets will anti-terrorism operations. The China be delivered to the customer this year," Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics, the source said. The Federal Service for the country's largest military drone ex- Military-Technical Cooperation has de- porter by number of products sold over- clined to comment on the report. In No- seas, said it recently conducted live-fire vember 2016, Deputy Director of the Fed- tests on the AR-2 short-range air-to- eral Service for Military-Technical Coop- surface missile in northwestern China. eration Vladimir Drozhzhov told TASS that The AR-2 is seen as tough competition Russia had started meeting its commit- for US, French and Israeli missiles. ments under the contract with China for the delivery of the fighter jets. With a weight of about 20 kilograms and a 5 kilograms warhead, an AR-2 has a Russia and China signed a contract in No- maximum range of 8 km and a top speed vember 2015 for the delivery of 24 Su-35 of 735 km per hour. It is effective against fighter jets. The three-year deal for the personnel, armoured cars, houses or supplies of aircraft, ground equipment bunkers, its designers said. A CH-4 recon- and spare engines is estimated at $2 bil- naissance/combat drone was used in the lion. The Su-35 (NATO reporting name: tests, though the missile can also be Flanker-E) is a highly upgraded 4++- mounted on other CH drones, officials generation super-manoeuvrable multipur- said.

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