JUNE 2009 Table of contents

Transnational terrorism 2

Profi le: Colombia’s elections 3

Worldwide terrorist activity 4 Africa Americas Asia Europe Middle East and North Africa

In-depth 8

Coming up 9

Prabhakaran, seen here addressing the Tamil people from an undisclosed location, was reportedly killed on 18 May

Military sources on 18 May reported the death of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) leader one day after the separatist group had issued a statement that it would silence its guns as the battle for control of its last remaining territory drew to a close. The government For more information about Hiscox or Control for months had been claiming that it was on the verge of eliminating Risks, please contact: the LTTE – intact supply routes, resilience among separatist fi ghters and poor weather were among the factors that prolonged the fi ghting. Stephen Ashwell Tel: 020 7448 6725 1 Great St Helen’s, London EC3A 6HX Prabhakaran has been a fearsome executioner of the violent campaign for [email protected] a Tamil homeland and his leadership was central to the LTTE’s strength. www.hiscox.com However, strategic errors in the months leading up to his reported death proved fatal. The LTTE now faces a debilitating leadership vacuum; Peter Simpson high-profi le fi gures to have reportedly been killed include Prabhakaran’s Tel: 020 7970 2373 son Antony, political chief B Nadesan and Peace Secretariat Cottons Centre, Cottons Lane, Director S Puleedevan. However, while reports of the LTTE’s demise London SE1 2QG have been widely welcomed, there are plenty of challenges ahead. [email protected] Devolution and development plans for ‘liberated’ areas are unconvincing www.control-risks.com and the confl ict has proved costly in both human and economic terms. Law and order will be a growing concern, particularly given the weapons in circulation, while the terrorism threat has not disappeared.

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JEMAAH ISLAMIYAH ARREST

Malaysian Home Minister Hishamuddin Hussein on 8 May confi rmed that the country’s security service had captured fugitive terrorist Mas Selamat Kastari, the leader of the Singaporean cell of the Islamist extremist (JI) network. Mas Selamat had previously escaped from a Singaporean prison in February 2008. Malaysian security sources claimed to have captured Mas Selamat in the southern city of Bahru based on a tip off from Singaporean intelligence.

Mas Selamat’s capture should modestly improve the security environment in and the wider region. A number of dangerous operators – namely JI and various splinter groups – remain at large, but the intelligence yield from Mas Selamat’s interrogation should further deplete JI’s already diminished capacity to launch terrorist attacks. Such a high- The Singapore-based Straits Times reports the capture of profi le arrest should also further undermine JI’s recruitment Mas Selamat Kastari and radicalisation efforts. Mas Selamat’s interrogation is QIM members following a shootout approximately 40 miles likely to shed new light on JI’s dispersed network – notably (60km) from the border with Algeria. In July 2008, the two in neighbouring areas in – and refresh regional governments discussed setting up joint military patrols intelligence agencies’ assessments of terrorist threats. along the border and exchanging intelligence to combat With JI no longer the region’s main terrorist organisation, the insurgency and criminal groups operating in the region. the intelligence community will face a challenge in tracking emerging hardline splinter groups. It is unknown whether ITALY INVESTIGATION Mas Selamat had been planning any attacks while on the run. Italian media reports on 12 May reported that two French DEATH OF SENIOR ALGERIAN MILITANT nationals arrested in the south-eastern port city of Bari in November 2008 in connection with immigration offences Media reports quoting sources in the security forces on 2 were now the subject of a terrorism investigation. The two May indicated that Abu Harith al-Libya, a senior leader are Bassam Ayachi, a Syrian-born imam (prayer leader), and of Algeria’s main domestic extremist group al-Qaida in the Raphael Gendron, a computer engineer and convert to Islam. Islamic Maghreb (QIM), had been killed in clashes with the They were originally arrested in November 2008 after arriving security forces in Tanan, about 1,500 miles (2,410km) south in Bari from Greece driving a camper van containing fi ve of the capital Algiers, near the border with Mali. Another illegal immigrants. Police seized a computer and the contents member of QIM was reportedly killed in the clash. Despite of documents saved on its hard disk; web postings linked to it occasional attacks outside QIM’s northern strongholds, the appear to be the key evidence suggesting links to terrorism. reach of insurgent activity in the country is likely to remain confi ned to these areas, where small-scale attacks are Ayachi and Gendron, who were resident in Brussels likely to continue. However, concerns persist regarding (Belgium) at the time of their arrests, reportedly identifi ed security along the porous Algerian-Mali border because numerous potential targets for attack, including Charles de of militant activity and to the presence of criminal groups. Gaulle airport in France and unnamed targets in Italy, the UK and other countries. The reports claim that they were Abu Harith al-Libya, who as his name implies is thought involved in all stages of the terrorist process, from the to have been a Libyan national, was a key QIM operative recruitment of operatives to planning attacks. However, the suspected of helping the group to smuggle ammunition counter-terrorism police suggest that their primary role was in and drugs. He was also allegedly involved in the abduction communications, receiving statements from extremist groups of Westerners. In an incident refl ecting continued militant and posting them on the internet in European languages. activity on the Saharan border between Algeria and Mali, the Malian security forces on 26 April arrested four suspected

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CAMPAIGNING BEGINS

As campaigning for Colombia’s general elections begins to gather momentum, both the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and National Liberation Army (ELN) leftist guerrilla groups will once again have to decide how they want to play their cards ahead of the polls. The groups have played an integral part in Colombia’s political life for at least the last three decades, and will seek to play a pivotal role once more. In fact, the future of both groups will be at the centre of debate because President Álvaro Uribe’s Democratic Security policy will be a key election issue.

GUERRILLA STRATEGY

The FARC and the ELN have undeniably been hard hit over the last seven years. Continuous military pressure during Uribe’s presidency has severely undermined their capabilities and allowed the armed forces to infl ict a series President Álvaro Uribe’s Democratic Security policy will be of heavy blows. Nevertheless, they are most probably far a key election issue from fi nished – an opinion supported by military intelligence. making too many concessions. This could be achieved if a Despite recent setbacks, the FARC in particular retains the series of large-scale disruptive attacks were to be followed capability to stage attacks throughout the country, posing by offers of serious talks. If they push too hard, they would a signifi cant security risk in some areas. In addition, while quickly go from discrediting the Democratic Security policy both groups have seen members killed or arrested, and their to legitimising another four years of hard-line military action. numbers depleted through desertion and demobilisation, The need to stay on this tightrope will lead both groups they retain a core of committed fi ghters with access to to refrain from indiscriminate attacks and concentrate weapons and funds who can stage operations with relative on presenting a combination of armed and political force. impunity. Now, to remain at the centre of the political debate and avoid being marginalised to the point that they become little more than well-armed drug-traffi cking LIMITED IMPACT rings, they need to continue showing their strength. Regardless of how successful the FARC and the ELN prove to be at striking that balance, their impact on the election and The groups’ main objective ahead of the polls is likely to be its aftermath is likely to be limited. The Democratic Security to discredit the Democratic Security policy. To do this, they policy has proven so popular that most candidates have not will engage in a dual strategy that requires careful balancing: only endorsed it, but are beginning to fi ght over who will be attacks that visibly demonstrate that they remain a signifi cant the most able to continue it, should Uribe not pursue a third force through widespread disruption of civilian life, but at the term. While most presidential candidates are likely to run same time showing they are willing to enter a political dialogue. on platforms that call for greater emphasis on social issues, This second point is critical in dictating their choice of targets they will have to constantly restate their commitment to the during the campaign; it follows the strategic shift that both Democratic Security policy and maintaining its funding. appear to have undertaken in recent years, moving away There may be a shift away from a strictly confrontational from indiscriminate attacks and political abductions towards stance towards the FARC, but any major departure from more targeted efforts against the state and its institutions. continued military pressure would be highly unlikely.

The groups will have to maintain a careful balancing act if their strategy is to succeed. They must demonstrate both resilience and an openness to negotiate – perhaps by declaring that they will not interfere with the polls or intimidate candidates and voters, or by agreeing to a temporary ceasefi re – while avoiding appearing weak or

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AFRICA

Congo (DRC): Local authorities in South Kivu province on 14 May reported that the rebel Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) had killed around 60 civilians and 30 Congolese army (FARDC) soldiers near Ekingi, 50 miles (80km) north-west of the provincial capital Bukavu.

Mali: Media reports on 2 May indicated that the security forces had arrested four suspected members of the Algerian extremist al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (QIM) following a shootout on 26 April. The military on 9 May launched a counter-terrorism operation targeting suspected QIM militants along the northern border with Algeria.

Nigeria: The main ethnic-Ijaw Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) militant group on 15 May declared ‘all-out war’ in the delta region. The group on 14 May had stated that an affi liated group had hijacked the MV Spirit in Delta state and was holding 15 foreign nationals hostage.

Somalia: Members of the militant al-Shabaab group on 17 May captured the strategic town of Johwar (56 miles (90 km) north of the capital Mogadishu). Previously, at least eight people were killed and 21 others injured on 25 April when rebel militias fi red mortar shells at the parliament building in Mogadishu. Terrorism Other political violence Warnings/arrests

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Dominican Republic: One person on 5 May was killed in San Juan de la Maguana (San Juan province) when the security forces clashed with protesters demanding new jobs and improvements to infrastructure and public services.

Paraguay: A small home-made device on 29 April exploded outside the Palace of Justice in the capital Asunción. There were no reported injuries or damage.

Colombia: Members of the FARC on 16 May attacked a police patrol in Cubara (Boyacá department). At least three police offi cers and two FARC rebels were killed and another police offi cer was injured.

US: Federal authorities on 19 May arrested three US nationals and one Haitian man who were allegedly planning to stage bomb attacks against Jewish religious and community centres in New York City.

Haiti: Supporters of rival candidates ransacked several polling booths in the towns of Mirebalais, Sarazin, Lascahobas and Saut d’Eau; at least one election offi cial was shot and injured in Mirebalais, where the security forces fi red tear gas to disperse rival activists. ASIA Bangladesh: The security forces on 15 May arrested Jahidur Rahman, a suspected senior member of the banned Islamist militant Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), in a raid on an apartment in the capital Dhaka. A quantity of arms and ammunition was recovered from the scene.

Pakistan: At least 11 people on 16 May were killed and 30 others injured in a suspected car bomb attack in the Khalsa district of the city of Peshawar, the capital of North West Frontier Province (NWFP). Separately, more than 20 people were killed on 29 April when ethnic riots erupted in Karachi, the capital of southern Sindh province.

Philippines: At least seven people, including four rebels, were killed and six others injured on 2 May in a clash between around 300 Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) separatists and security guards at a banana plantation in North Cotabato province on the southern island of Mindanao. The rebels set fi re to at least 80 houses, as well as other property, in the municipality as they fl ed.

Sri Lanka: The army on 16 May claimed victory over the LTTE after reportedly capturing the remaining strip Afghanistan: Suspected Taleban militants on 12 May carried of rebel-controlled land in the north-east of the country. out at least 11 suicide bomb attacks in Khost, the capital The military added that it had discovered the bodies of eastern Khost province, killing at least 20 people and of four other senior rebel leaders, including the chief injuring several others. The synchronised attacks targeted of the group’s political wing, Balasingham Nadesan. the offi ces of the governor, the municipal administration and the police. Militants also took at least 20 people hostage.

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Azerbaijan: The internal affairs ministry on 5 May stated that a shooting incident on 30 April at the State Oil Academy in the capital Baku had been part of a well planned terrorist attack. A 29 year old Georgian citizen of Azerbaijani origin killed 13 people and injured nine more in what was initially reported to have been a random shooting attack.

Georgia: Opposition supporters on 6 May clashed with police in the capital Tbilisi in the most violent encounter since protests began on 9 April. At least 22 people were injured, including six police offi cers. In a separate incident, the army on 5 May contained a rebellion by a tank battalion stationed at a military base in Mukhrovani, 19 miles (30km) from Tbilisi. The security forces apparently regained control of the situation without using violence. The interior ministry on the same day stated that a number of former high-ranking offi cials from the Georgian security ministries with links to Russia had been arrested over an alleged coup attempt. protests were staged to oppose the planned temporary Greece: Protesters on 9 May attacked a disused lay-off of around 1,000 workers at a plant in France. courthouse in the centre of the capital Athens in which several hundred immigrants had been residing illegally Poland: At least 50 protesters and three police offi cers for several weeks. The incident followed a protest by neo- on 29 April were injured in disturbances during an anti- fascist group Golden Dawn (CA). Nine police offi cers and government demonstration in the capital Warsaw. The fi ve civilians were injured in clashes. Left-wing groups clashes occurred when around 5,000 employees of Polish staged a counter-demonstration nearby that turned violent State Railways and several port workers from the port city of when police attempted to keep the two groups apart. Gdańsk gathered outside a building in which EU delegates were participating in the European People’s Party congress. Italy: At least 19 police offi cers and several protesters were injured on 19 May in clashes in the north-western Portugal: Police on 10 May arrested 12 people following a city of Turin during a demonstration attended by around fourth night of rioting in the city of Setúbal, 25 miles (40km) 3,000 people. The demonstrators, many of them south-east of the capital Lisbon. The unrest began in the students, opposed the participation of university staff in low-income Bela Vista district after police shot a local youth a conference connected to the G8 meeting scheduled whom they believed to have been involved in a robbery. to be held in the city of L’Aquila on 8-10 July. Protesters on 18 May briefl y occupied the city’s main railway station. Russia: Two police offi cers and a taxi driver on 15 May were killed in a suicide attack against the Chechen interior ministry Kosovo: EU Rule of Law Mission (EULEX) police in the regional capital Grozny. The explosion occurred near a offi cers on 5 May used tear gas to disperse ethnic Serb police checkpoint several hundred metres from the building. demonstrators in the Brđani suburb of the ethnically divided northern city of Mitrovica. The incident occurred when UK: At least three people on 6 May were arrested when protesters attempted to breach a cordon separating the pro-Tamil demonstrators smashed windows at the city’s Serb and Albanian communities. The incident took Chinese embassy in the centre of the capital London. place during the 11th consecutive day of protests against the return of ethnic Albanians to the north of the city. Spain: Police in Bilbao – the largest city in the northern Basque Country region – on 20 May arrested 14 people Luxembourg: Around 1,000 steel-workers from of Algerian and Moroccan origin. The arrested men France and Belgium on 12 May clashed with police are suspected of operating a crime network in the city outside the headquarters of a major multinational that may have links to Islamist extremist terrorism. steel company in the capital Luxembourg City. The

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Algeria: Six people were injured and 26 others arrested on 10 May after a riot erupted in the north-western coastal town of Mostaganem. The incident occurred after a number of local traders were forcefully evicted from streets where they usually set up their stalls. The evictions reportedly came as part of efforts to enforce a new plan to reduce traffi c in the area.

Egypt: Reports on 10 May confi rmed that an improvised explosive device had exploded near a Coptic church in the Helmiet el-Zeitun district of the capital Cairo, damaging a car but causing no injuries. The security forces reportedly also defused a second device in the area.

Separately, two separate clashes between police and local residents occurred on 3 May on the outskirts of the capital Cairo; more than 20 people were injured and around 15 others detained. The residents, who were mainly rubbish (garbage) collectors and pig breeders, were protesting against a government decision to carry out a mass slaughter of the country’s pigs as a precautionary indicated that up to three people were killed and that the measure against the A/H1N1 strain of infl uenza. house belonged to the leftist Revolutionary Command. The operation formed part of a series of raids across the Iran: Media reports on 26 April indicated that the security city targeting leftists, separatists and Islamist extremists. forces had arrested a number of people on suspicion of planning bomb attacks in the country, particularly in the run-up At least nine soldiers on 29 April were killed when a bomb to the country’s presidential election on 12 June. Meanwhile, exploded on a section of a main road in south-eastern 11 members of the security forces and ten militants were Diyarbakir province; the Kurdish nationalist Kurdistan killed on 24 and 25 April in attacks on police stations in Workers’ Party (PKK) is likely to have been responsible. the western provinces of Kordestan and Kermanshah. In a separate incident, two suspected female bombers were arrested in the capital Ankara following an attempt Iraq: At least ten people were killed and more than 35 others to assassinate former justice minister Hikmet Sami Turk. injured on 6 May in a truck bomb attack in the Doura district of the capital Baghdad. Police reportedly also defused Separately, hundreds of left-wing activists and union another bomb that had been planted in the same area. workers on 1 May clashed with police in several major urban centres, including Ankara and Istanbul. In Istanbul, Morocco: The authorities on 12 May announced the riot police used tear gas and water cannon to disperse arrests of eight suspected Islamist extremists on charges protesters and at least 21 police offi cers were injured. of belonging to a terrorist cell plotting attacks in the kingdom. The security forces described the men as Yemen: Two protesters on 3 May were killed in clashes belonging to the ‘Salafi a Jihadia’ Islamist extremist trend. between the security forces and opposition groups in southern Lahj province. The same day, at least one Sudan: The Chadian government on 17 May admitted person was killed and two others were injured when a that it had carried out air raids on rebel positions in West hand grenade exploded during an anti-government protest Darfur state, adding that it had destroyed the positions and in the southern town of al-Dalea. Previously, more than captured around 100 people on the Chad-Sudan border. 50 people on 27-28 April were reportedly arrested in the southern provinces of Hadhramaut and Abyan after a Turkey: At least seven police offi cers were reportedly injured coalition of parties opposed to the government’s policies on 27 April during a raid on a house in Istanbul belonging towards the south organised rallies in several cities. to a suspected ‘illegal organisation’. Unconfi rmed reports

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YEMEN

A protest campaign in the country’s southern and eastern provinces, which formerly made up the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (1967-90), shows no sign of abating. In the most recent unrest, at least three people were killed and dozens of others injured on 21 May in clashes between protesters and the police during an anti-government demonstration in the southern port city of Aden; police reportedly opened fi re and used tear gas to disperse the crowd. The protest occurred during ongoing celebrations to mark National Unity Day, which commemorates the country’s unifi cation in 1990.

A group known as the Southern Mobility Movement is spearheading the protest campaign. It seeks the restoration of a separate state in south Yemen and alleges that the government has neglected the rights of southern citizens. Demonstrations are also intended to support long- Protesters in the southern Yemeni town of Dhalae standing demands such as the provision of pensions for rebel elements, porous borders, large numbers of refugees former soldiers and an improvement in socio-economic and continuing military operations will make the region a conditions in the south. While not new, these demands challenging security environment in the months to come. have become more insistent because of the government’s perceived persistent failure to address southern grievances. Nevertheless, despite an increase in protests GUATEMALA and separatist rhetoric, President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s Lawyer Rodrigo Rosenberg on 10 May was shot dead government is likely to prioritise anti-secession measures outside his home in the capital Guatemala City. He had because the country’s natural resources – a key source provided legal services to prominent businessman Khalil of government revenues – are concentrated in the south. Musa, who in April was murdered along with his daughter. In a video-recorded message circulated a day before his CHAD death, Rosenberg accused President Álvaro Colom and several other key government offi cials of plotting to murder Union of Resistance Forces (UFR) rebels on 5 May him. In the video, he asserted that the government had moved from their rear bases on Sudanese territory into orchestrated the murder of Musa because he had discovered eastern Chad, seizing several eastern areas, including corruption at the part-state-owned Banco de Desarrollo Am Dam, Goz Beida and Am Timan. After days of heavy Rural (BANRURAL). He also claimed that BANRURAL was fi ghting in eastern Chad, the government on 9 May being used to channel money to non-existent social projects declared victory over the UFR, though media reports led by the president’s wife Sandra Torres, as a front for indicated that sporadic clashes continued at least until 11 fi rms founded by drug cartels and for money-laundering. May. The authorities claimed that more than 220 rebels Colom rejected the allegations, saying that organised and more than 20 soldiers had been killed in the fi ghting, criminal groups were using the BANRURAL corruption though these fi gures were not independently confi rmed. case to mount a crusade to undermine his administration.

A strong army counter-offensive – including heavy air The Rosenberg case has fuelled public opposition to the force bombardments on Sudanese territory, which the government. Hundreds of protesters on 12 May staged a Sudanese government had described as ‘acts of war’ – rally near Guatemala City’s central Constitution Square appears to have ended this latest rebel push. Despite to condemn the murder. The demonstrators subsequently rebel threats of renewed attacks, another push for the proceeded to the Palacio Nacional, where counter-protests capital Ndjamena is highly unlikely at this stage because were staged by pro-government activists. The security forces it will be diffi cult for UFR forces to regroup and organise intervened to prevent clashes between the rival groups. another offensive against reinforced army positions. Nevertheless, insecurity will persist in the east – remaining

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NEWS AND EVENTS

These are some of the events that Control Risks is involved with or organising in the coming months:

3 Jun – ‘Protecting business information in China’; breakfast briefi ng (London)

9 Jun – ‘Whistle-blowing’; breakfast briefi ng (London)

14-17 Jun – ‘Managing a kidnap’; workshop (London)

For further information on these and other events, please contact events@ control-risks.com

COUNTRIES TO WATCH

Haiti: Violent unrest is likely during the second round of Senate elections scheduled for 7 June.

Georgia: Anti-government protests in the run-up to Independence Day on 26 May could prompt renewed clashes between opposition activists and police.

Mauritania: Protests against the military regime are likely to intensify if the presidential election scheduled for 6 June proceeds according to schedule.

Yemen: Further clashes between protesters and the security forces are likely as a southern secessionist campaign gathers pace.

KEY DATES

4 Jun – China: Anniversary of Tiananmen Square massacre (1989); pro- democracy protests likely in Hong Kong. Control Risks Group Limited (‘the Company’) endeavours to ensure the accuracy of all information supplied. Advice and opinions 6 Jun – India: Anniversary of storming of the Golden Temple in Amritsar (1984); given represent the best judgement of the increased risk of Sikh terrorism in Delhi and Punjab province. Company but, subject to section 2 (1) Unfair Contract Terms Act 1977, the Company shall in no case be liable for any claims, or special, 7 Jun – Lebanon: Parliamentary elections; isolated clashes, other acts of incidental or consequential damages, whether political violence likely in run-up to polls. caused by the Company’s negligence (or that of any member of its staff) or in any other way. Copyright: © Control Risks Group Limited 2009. All 16 Jun – Turkey: Anniversary of general strike (1970); extreme leftist attacks rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part on state targets possible. prohibited without the prior consent of the Company.

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