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IMPACT of ALTERNATIVE LAND RENTAL AGREEMENTS on the PROFITABILITY of COTTON PRODUCERS ACROSS the COTTON BELT Leah M

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IMPACT of ALTERNATIVE LAND RENTAL AGREEMENTS on the PROFITABILITY of COTTON PRODUCERS ACROSS the COTTON BELT Leah M 2013 Beltwide Cotton Conferences, San Antonio,Texas, January 7-10, 2013 919 IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE LAND RENTAL AGREEMENTS ON THE PROFITABILITY OF COTTON PRODUCERS ACROSS THE COTTON BELT Leah M. Duzy Agricultural Research Service, USDA Auburn, AL Jessica Kelton Auburn University Auburn, AL Abstract Across the Cotton Belt, cropland values increased, decreased, or remained constant, depending on the state, from 2007 to 2011. The average change in cropland values in the Cotton Belt from 2010 to 2011 was 3.6%, modest when compared to increases in the Corn Belt. However, even modest increases in land values translate into rising production costs for producers, either through increased ownership costs or increased rents. With approximately 40% of farmland being rented nationally, land values and methods of securing land are important to overall profitability of cotton operations. The objective of this research was to evaluate the impact of land values on cotton (Gossypium L.) producer profitability across the Cotton Belt considering alternative methods of securing land and production systems. A cotton production financial simulation model was constructed to evaluate the impact of alternative methods of securing land, considering variable prices and yield, on grower net returns above variable costs considering conventional tillage and conservation tillage systems. Data were gathered from cotton enterprise budgets and historic prices, yields, land values, and rents for Arkansas, Georgia, and Texas. The preliminary results suggest that, in general, the cash rent and flexible cash rent scenarios provide the highest net returns over variable costs and the lowest net return variability; however, every farming operation is different and each producer must make an informed decision for their operation. Introduction Across the United States (U.S.), agricultural producers are faced with rising production costs. While land rent is just one part of production costs, increases in rent can have a negative impact on profitability. Increases in land values and rents differ by region and state, and by whether or not the land is irrigated. Land values have increased at an accelerated rate over the last five years, with the exception of 2009, in the Corn Belt (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio), Lake States (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin), and Northern Plains (Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota) (USDA-NASS, 2012). While producers in the Cotton Belt (Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia) have not seen the large double digit increases in land values over the last two years, land values have increased in many of these states, while staying stable and even decreasing in others. Furthermore, the farmland rent-to-value ratio has been decreasing over the last 45 years. This means that it takes longer for an asset to pay for itself today than it did 45 years ago (Nickerson et al., 2012). Cotton (Gossypium L.) is an important commodity to these states, and maintaining profitability is important to these producers in the face of increasing land values and rent. In 2011, cotton producers in the U.S. harvested approximately 9.46 million acres of cotton (0.3049 million acres of pima cotton (Gossypium L.) and 9.156 million acres of upland cotton). The average pima cotton yield was 1,340 lb ac-1 and the average upland cotton yield was 722 lb ac-1. Producers received on average 1.64 $ lb-1 for pima cotton and 0.913 $ lb-1 for upland cotton. In 2011, producers in Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas planted the most acres and were the largest producers, in terms of production of upland cotton, while producers in California and Texas planted the most acres and were the largest producers of pima cotton. Nationally, cotton was harvested on 18605 operations (551 operations harvested pima cotton and 18286 operations harvested upland cotton), based on the 2007 U.S. Census of Agriculture. The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) identifies cotton farming by NAICS code 11192. In 2007, approximately 10000 operations were classified as cotton farms, totaling over 13 million acres and over 4.3 billion dollars in total commodity sales. It is important to note that these operations may have produced other crops besides cotton. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, only one NAICS code is assigned to a business establishment, based on the primary business activity. The primary business activity is based on activity that generates the most revenue for the business establishment. Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas had the largest number of operations classified as cotton farms. Of 2013 Beltwide Cotton Conferences, San Antonio,Texas, January 7-10, 2013 920 the operations identified by NAICS code 11192, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas had the highest production in terms of sales. Cropland land values and cash rents vary widely across the Cotton Belt, and differ by whether the cropland is irrigated or dryland. Across all cropland, Arizona had the highest average land values (8749 $ acre-1) between 2000 and 2011. Oklahoma had the lowest average land values (974 $ acre-1). Ten states (Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia) saw cropland values peak in 2007, 2008, or 2009. The remaining states (Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas) have seen land values continue to rise over the period 2000 to 2011. Irrigated cropland values were the highest in states growing high-value crops (i.e. fruits and vegetables, tree crops) that require irrigation: Arizona, California, Florida, and New Mexico. All cropland values were adjusted to 2011 using the Producer Price Index (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012). Over the period 2008 to 2011, average cropland rent ranged from 53 $ acre-1 for irrigated cropland in South Carolina to 356 $ acre-1 for irrigated cropland in California. Non-irrigated cropland rent ranged from 18 $ acre-1 in New Mexico to 93 $ acre-1 in Missouri. As with cropland land values, states where high- value crops were grown had the highest cash rents, especially for irrigated cropland. Understanding the influence of rent on profitability is important since almost 40 percent of agricultural land is rented by producers (Nickerson et al., 2012). Aside from land ownership and cash rent, producers have other land tenure options, such as flexible cash rent and share rent arrangements. Due to the number of land tenure options, it is difficult to determine the best land tenure option given production costs. Previous literature has focused primarily on specific states and specific types of land tenure arrangements, such as share rent. Gueck et al. (2009) concluded that in the Texas High Plains, in regards to share rent arrangements, the producer and the landlord did not necessarily have the same preferred alternative, and that risk aversion of both the producer and landlord must be considered when finalizing share rent arrangements. For Louisiana rice producers, Deliberto and Salassi (2010) concluded that producers who cash rent increase their net return risk as compared to a share rent arrangement. The objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of agricultural land values and land rent on cotton producer profitability in Arkansas, Georgia, and Texas considering alternative methods of securing land and different production systems. Materials and Methods A cotton production financial simulation model was constructed to evaluate the impact of alternative methods of securing land, considering variable prices and yield, on grower net returns above variable costs considering different production methods. Data were gathered from cotton enterprise budgets and historic cotton lint and cottonseed prices, cotton lint yields, cropland land values, and cropland rents for Arkansas, Georgia, and Texas. Cotton lint and cottonseed prices, cotton lint yields were obtained from USDA - NASS for 1980 to 2011 (USDA-NASS, 2012). Cropland land values (2000 to 2011) and cropland rents (2008 to 2011) were also obtained from USDA-NASS (USDA-NASS, 2012). All prices, cropland land values, and cropland rents were adjusted to 2011 dollars using the Producer Price Index (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012). Table 1 displays the average cropland rent, cropland land values, and rent-to-value ratios for irrigated and dryland cropland. 2013 Beltwide Cotton Conferences, San Antonio,Texas, January 7-10, 2013 921 Table 1. Average cropland rent (2008 – 2011), average cropland land values (2000 – 2011) and rent-to-value ratio by state for irrigated and dryland cropland. Irrigated Dryland Cropland Cropland Cropland Cropland State Rent Land Values Rent-to- Rent Land Values Rent-to- Value Ratio Value Ratio ($ ac-1) ($ ac-1) Arkansas 104.94 1889 0.056 53.61 1508 0.036 Georgia 142.31 2978 0.048 52.21 3372 0.015 Texas 79.17 1427 0.055 26.36 1274 0.021 Crop enterprise budgets were collected from Arkansas (University of Arkansas, 2012), Georgia (Smith et al., 2012), and Texas (Texas AgriLife Extension, 2012). Input costs that were yield based, such as ginning and warehousing, varied with stochastic yields. For Texas, enterprise budgets were used from District 2 for upland cotton, as this was the District in Texas with the largest upland cotton acreage based on data from
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