Federal Election Poll # 4 Final Countdown

www.ekos.com Methodology

Telephone survey of the general public 5,254 interviews with a national stratified random sample of Canadians 18 years of age and older 9 Interview period: June 21 to June 24, 2004 9 National results valid within 1.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided It should also be noted that the refusal rate and other measurement errors could also increase the margin of error Selected ridings of interest were over-sampled Tracking data from the 2000 Election are drawn from a survey of 2,265 Canadians conducted between October 23- October 25, 2000.

All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample’s regional, gender and age composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data. CurrentAll Survey Federal Results Voting Intentions Federal voting intentions

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? EKOS June 16-17 04 Election 2000

32.6% 29.0% 40.8%

CA: 25.5% 31.8% 31.4% 37.7% PC: 12.2%

19.0% 20.5% 8.5%

11.2% 14.2% 10.7%

4.9% 4.3% 0.8%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Other: 0.5% Undecided/declined: 19.3% Will not vote 1.4% Base Decided voters only (includes “leaners”); most recent data point Jun. 21-24, n= 4159 Federal voting intentions: long-term trend

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

100% Election ‘97 Election ‘00

75%

50%

25%

0% Dec-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04

Liberal NDP CPC BQ Green Party

Base Decided voters only (includes “leaners”); most recent data point Jun. 21-24, n= 4159 Federal voting intentions: over the election campaign

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

60%

50%

38% 40% 34% 31% 33%

30% 32% 30% 30% 29% 21% 19% 20% 18% 19%

10% 12% 14% 11% 11% 5% 4% 5% 0% 27-May 3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun

Liberal NDP CPC BQ Green Party

Base Decided voters only (includes “leaners”); most recent data point Jun. 21-24, n= 4159 Federal voting intentions: regional

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

100%

75%

50%

25%

0% BC Alta. Prairies Ont. Que. Atl. Liberal 30% 23% 29% 38% 28% 39% CPC 34% 58% 37% 35% 11% 33% NDP 27% 12% 30% 21% 7% 28% BQ 51% Green Party 7% 7% 5% 5% 3% 0%

Liberal CPC NDP BQ Green Party

Base Decided voters only (includes “leaners”); most recent data point Jun. 21-24, n= 4159 Federal voting intentions: gender and age

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

100%

75%

50%

25%

0% Men Women <25 yrs 25-44 45-64 65+ Liberal 31% 34% 29% 30% 34% 40% CPC 35% 29% 29% 30% 33% 38% NDP 18% 20% 23% 21% 16% 14% BQ 11% 11% 13% 13% 11% 6% Green Party 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 3%

Liberal CPC NDP BQ Green Party

Base Decided voters only (includes “leaners”); most recent data point Jun. 21-24, n= 4159 Federal voting intentions: education & income

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

100%

75%

50%

25%

0% Hschool Coll Univ <$20K 20-39K 40-59K 60-79K 80-99K 100K+ Liberal 30% 29% 37% 33% 30% 28% 31% 39% 36% CPC 35% 30% 30% 25% 30% 32% 34% 32% 39% NDP 20% 17% 19% 25% 19% 21% 19% 17% 12% BQ 10% 17% 9% 13% 18% 15% 11% 6% 8% Green Party 4% 5% 6% 5% 4% 4% 6% 6% 5%

Liberal CPC NDP BQ Green Party

Base: Decided voters only (includes “leaners”); most recent data point Jun. 21-24, n=4159 BQ & CPC vote most stable

Q: How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election on June 28?

% “very likely” Jun. 16-17 Jun. 7-9

Overall 4 70 14 12 9 17

LPC 3 71 16 10 14 20

CPC 1 79 11 9 7 13

NDP 1 69 18 12 6 15

BQ 1 80 11 8 3 10

GP 2 66 18 14 3 24

0255075100 DK/NR Not very likely Somewhat likely Very likely

Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Jun. 21-24, n=5254 NDP second choice

Q: If you were to change your mind, which party would be your second choice?

0255075100 Other: 1% Undecided/declined: 18% Will not vote/change mind: 16% Base: All Canadians; Jun. 21-24, n=5254 Tracking second choice throughout the campaign

Q: If you were to change your mind, which party would be your second choice?

50%

40%

30%

22% 22% 18% 18% 20% 20% 18% 18% 17% 17% 14% 15% 10% 5% 11% 5% 4% 4% 4% 0% 27-May 3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun Liberal NDP CPC Green Party Bloc

Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Jun. 21-24, n=5254 Liberals seen as likely winners

Q: Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next federal election, which party do you think will win?

DK/NR 21

0255075100

Base: All Canadians; Jun. 21-24, n=5254 Belief in a Liberal victory rebounding

Q: Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next federal election, which party do you think will win?

100% Liberal 90% CPC 80% 67% 70%

60% 52% 49% 50% 44%

40%

30% 35% 31% 20% 15% 29%

10%

0% 27-May 3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun

Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Jun. 21-24, n=5254 AllKeySurveyRegion Results#1: Ontario Voting intentions in Ontario over the election campaign

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

60%

50%

40% 40% 38% 35% 38% 35% 35% 30% 34% 33%

22% 21% 26% 20% 21%

10% 6% 6% 5% 0% 27-May 3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun

Liberal NDP CPC Green Party

Base Ontario decided voters only (includes “leaners”); most recent data point Jun. 21-24, n= 1604 Vote intention of the key demographic groups in Ontario

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

VOTE INTENTION Demographics LPC CPC NDP GP Gender: Men 36.3 37.8 19.4 5.9 Women 40.3 31.4 22.7 4.9 Age: <25 33.3 30.2 29.4 7.1 25-44 37.1 34.0 21.8 5.9 45-64 39.6 36.5 18.2 5.1 65+ 43.8 38.2 15.0 3.0 Education: Less than HS 34.0 38.1 22.3 5.3 University 41.2 32.8 20.6 5.1 Income: <$20,000 33.0 28.4 33.3 5.2 $100,000+ 41.0 43.1 10.1 5.4

Base Residents of Ontario; Jun. 21-24, n=1604 AllKeySurveyRegion Results#2: Quebec Voting intentions in Quebec over the election campaign

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

60% 58%

54% 50% 51%

45% 40%

36% 30% 28% 22% 22% 20% 11% 13% 11% 10% 8% 9% 6% 7% 3% 3% 2% 3% 0% 27-May 3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun Liberal NDP CPC Green Party Bloc

Base Quebec decided voters only (includes “leaners”); most recent data point Jun. 21-23, n=763 Quebec federal voting preferences – long term

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

100%

Election ‘00

75%

50%

25%

0% Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- 00 00 01 01 01 01 01 01 02 02 02 02 02 02 03 03 03 03 03 03 04 04 04

Liberal BQ NDP CPC

Base Quebec decided voters only (includes “leaners”); most recent data point Jun. 21-23, n= 763 Vote intention of the key demographic groups in Quebec

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

VOTE INTENTION Demographics LPC CPC NDP BQ GP Gender: Men 25.2 12.7 5.5 51.6 4.0 Women 30.6 10.1 7.2 49.4 2.1 Age: <25 20.6 15.2 4.0 54.8 2.7 25-44 22.0 11.6 9.6 53.5 2.5 45-64 30.3 8.8 5.3 51.4 4.1 65+ 52.4 11.2 1.2 33.0 2.3 Education: Less than HS 32.4 14.0 2.1 49.2 0.9 University 29.0 10.5 8.9 45.8 4.8 Income: <$20,000 35.1 6.1 9.1 46.0 3.7 $100,000+ 24.5 9.7 7.3 53.9 4.5

Base Residents of Quebec; overall for Jun. 21-23, n=763 A CPC-BQ alliance favoured in Quebec

Q: In the eventuality of a minority government, there will be a need for coalitions and alliances to retain power in Ottawa. In your view, which alliance do you think would be best?

FEDERAL VOTE INTENTION Overall BQ LPC CPC CPC-Bloc Quebecois 25 46 4 26 Liberal Party-Bloc Quebecois 18 22 20 9 Liberal Party-Conservative Party 14 0 30 15 Liberal Party-NDP 11 2 28 20 Conservative Party-NDP 7 7 3 21 None of the above 7 10 2 0 DK/NR 17 12 12 9

Base: Residents of Quebec; Jun. 23, n=277 AllKeySurveyRegion Results#3: British Columbia Voting intentions in B.C. over the election campaign

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

60%

50%

41% 37% 40% 36% 32% 34% 30% 29% 30% 30% 27% 29% 29% 26% 20%

10% 7% 5% 3%

0% 27-May 3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun

Liberal NDP CPC GreenParty

Base British Columbia decided voters only (includes “leaners”); most recent data point Jun. 21-24, n= 566 Vote intention of the key demographic groups in B.C.

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

VOTE INTENTION Demographics LPC CPC NDP GP Gender: Men 30.5 36.0 26.5 5.4 Women 29.1 32.7 28.2 9.7 Age: <25 26.3 32.7 30.8 7.4 25-44 30.4 31.5 31.1 6.6 45-64 30.3 34.2 23.1 11.3 65+ 30.2 45.3 21.6 2.8 Education: Less than HS 27.2 33.4 31.1 7.3 University 34.3 33.9 25.6 6.3 Income: <$20,000 23.8 39.2 26.6 10.5 $100,000+ 40.4 36.9 19.6 3.1

Base: Residents of British Columbia; Jun. 21-24, n=566 The Race in Select Federal AllElectoralSurvey Ridings: Results Outremont Voting intentions - Outremont

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Election 2000

37.9% 28.3%

29.6% 47.7%

18.7% 5.6%

CA: 3.3% 8.4% 11.4% PC: 8.1%

4.4% 3.7%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Other: 0.9% Undecided/declined: 17.3% Will not vote 1.3% Base Decided voters only (includes “leaners”) in the Outremont riding in Quebec; Jun. 21-23, n=292 Outremont - BQ vote most stable

Q: How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election on June 28?

Overall 5 71 10 13

LPC 5 70 11 14

CPC 66 20 14

NDP 72 11 17

BQ 85 7 8

0 255075100 DK/NR Not very likely Somewhat likely Very likely

Base: Residents of the Outremont riding in Quebec; Jun. 21-24, n=295 NDP second choice in Outremont

Q: If you were to change your mind, which party would be your second choice?

0255075100 Other:1% Undecided/declined: 17% Will not vote/change mind: 10% Base: Residents of the Outremont riding in Quebec; Jun. 21-24, n=295 The Race in Select Federal AllElectoralSurvey Ridings: Results Toronto-Danforth Voting intentions – Toronto-Danforth

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Election 2000

46.0% 27.7%

37.3% 51.9%

CA: 7.7% 11.8% 15.7% PC: 8.0%

4.0% n/a

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Other: 0.9% Undecided/declined: 15.4% Will not vote 0.3%

Base Decided voters only (includes “leaners”) in the Toronto-Danforth riding in Ontario; Jun. 21-24, n= 254 Toronto-Danforth - NDP vote most stable

Q: How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election on June 28?

Overall 3 74 13 10

LPC 1 76 14 9

CPC 70 8 22

NDP 3 80 11 6

0 255075100 DK/NR Not very likely Somewhat likely Very likely

Base: Residents of the Toronto-Danforth riding in Ontario; Jun. 21-24, n=300 Liberals second choice in Toronto-Danforth

Q: If you were to change your mind, which party would be your second choice?

0255075100

Other: 0% Undecided/declined:11% Will not vote/change mind: 14% Base: Residents of the Toronto-Danforth riding in Ontario; Jun. 21-24, n=300 The Race in Select Federal AllElectoralSurvey Ridings: Results Wascana Voting intentions - Wascana

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Election 2000

48.9% 41.2%

24.4% 21.5%

Canadian 22.7% 36.1% Alliance

4.0% n/a

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Other: 0% Undecided/declined: 15.0% Will not vote 0.3%

Base Decided voters only (includes “leaners”) in the Wascana riding in Saskatchewan; Jun. 21-24, n= 253 Wascana - NDP vote most volatile

Q: How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election on June 28?

Overall 2 76 9 14

LPC 83 7 10

CPC 85 9 6

NDP 64 14 22

0 255075100 DK/NR Not very likely Somewhat likely Very likely

Base: Residents of the Wascana riding in Saskatchewan; Jun. 21-24, n=302 NDP second choice in Wascana

Q: If you were to change your mind, which party would be your second choice?

0255075100 Other: 0% Undecided/declined: 13% Will not vote/change mind: 14% Base: Residents of the Wascana riding in Saskatchewan; Jun. 21-24, n=302 Regina-Qu’AppelleAll Survey Results Voting intentions – Regina-Qu’Appelle

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Election 2000

37.0% Canadian 40.7% Alliance

28.9% 18.0%

28.6% 41.3%

4.7% n/a

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Other: 0.8% Undecided/declined: 28.1% Will not vote 1.4% Base Decided voters only (includes “leaners”) in the Regina-Qu’Appelle riding in Saskatchewan; Jun. 22-24, n= 139 Opportunity for movement in Regina-Qu’Appelle riding

Q: How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election on June 28?

Overall 4 64 18 14

LPC 73 18 10

CPC 73 14 13

NDP 75 19 6

0 255075100 DK/NR Not very likely Somewhat likely Very likely

Base: Residents of the Regina-Qu’Appelle riding in Saskatchewan; Jun. 22-24, n=202 Liberals second choice in Regina-Qu’Appelle

Q: If you were to change your mind, which party would be your second choice?

0255075100 Other:2% Undecided/declined: 25% Will not vote/change mind: 18% Base: Residents of the Regina-Qu’Appelle riding in Saskatchewan; Jun. 22-24, n=202 The Race in Select Federal AllElectoralSurvey Ridings: Results Edmonton Centre Federal voting intentions

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Election 2000*

CA: 42.8% 46.1% 48.9% PC: 6.1%

29.5% 44.2%

16.1% 5.8%

7.5% n/a

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Other: 0.8% Undecided/declined: 14.9% *Former riding of Edmonton West where current incumbent for Will not vote 2.5% Edmonton Centre, Anne McLellan, is running

Base Decided voters only (includes “leaners”) in the Edmonton Centre riding in Alberta; Jun. 23-24, n= 255 Liberal vote most volatile

Q: How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election on June 28?

Overall 3 72 12 13

LPC 3 72 10 15

CPC 1 81 10 8

NDP 77 11 11

0 255075100 DK/NR Not very likely Somewhat likely Very likely

Base: Residents of the Edmonton Centre riding in Alberta; Jun. 23-24, n=314 NDP second choice

Q: If you were to change your mind, which party would be your second choice?

0255075100 Other: 2% Undecided/declined: 16% Will not vote/change mind: 21% Base: Residents of the Edmonton Centre riding in Alberta; Jun. 23-24, n=314 For more information:

Frank Graves, President All [email protected] Results Andrew Sullivan,Vice President [email protected]

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