Touching Human Lives

National Opinion Research Center

1155 E. 60th St. Chicago, IL 60637

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Annual Report 1997 Touching Human Lives

NO R C conducts social science research in the public interest. The results of our research affect everyone ...including you.

Many of our studies are used to shape public policy, draft laws, and determine how tax dollars and other resources are allocated. Our studies look at all types of people from all walks of life. From a newborn in Maine to an IV drug user in rural Texas, the people who are part of our studies provide valuable insight into the human condition.

In keeping with our mission, NORC data greatly add to and influence both the general knowledge as well as public policy in a wide range of fields. Whether it’s about health care, con- sumer finances, community policing, student achievement, drug tre a t- ment, labor markets, or elder care, the data NORC collects touches lives all across America.

1997 Annual Report NORC 1 January 1998

We have had a record volume of work at NORC in 1997. Over the past few years we Our studies also greatly affect those who conduct them, as you will hear from one of have grown at a steady pace, and we continue to handle even the most challenging our interviewers on Assessing Attitudes of the Terminally Ill. This interviewer found requirements of federal surveys. Our growth has been fueled by new survey projects, the experience extremely moving, telling us: “It is sometimes easy to let yourself extensions of ongoing and recurrent projects, new staff-generated research, and become mechanical in the process of collecting data. All that it takes for reality to come collaborative studies with external researchers. rushing back is to look in their eyes. . . I have been greatly honored to work with these individuals.” Each year our interviewers and project staff report many stories like this In 1997, our studies covered everything from fiscal policy to gun control policy, access one, which reinforces for us why our work is so meaningful. to health care to access to education, public defenders to police administrators, treat- ing AIDS to treating the elderly. The sheer variety and breadth of our work led us to Although these studies represent only a fraction of NORC’s research portfolio, these focus this Annual Report on the ways in which our work touches virtually every per- projects and the new Sloan Research Center will have far-reaching effects, increasing son in America. the state of knowledge and influencing public policy. At NORC, we never forget that the work we do touches the people around us. In the pages that follow, you will learn about some exciting new projects such as the Doctorate Data Project, which studies Ph.D. recipients from all U.S. universities to track the flow of Ph.D.s through American universities and into the labor force. We are also very pleased to be conducting the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Project, a new study that explores the challenges faced by unwed parents and their children. In addition to these two new projects, we also added the Alfred P. Sloan Center on Children, Family, and Work to our already productive Research Centers. The new Sloan Center is examining how working families deal with all the intricately-woven Phil E. DePoy Ralph W. Muller influences they experience and the effects these influences have on their lives. President Chair, Board of Trustees You will also see that our ongoing studies have been both exciting and productive. In last year’s Annual Report, we told you how proud we were to have been awarded the Second Longitudinal Study of Aging, and that study is now fully underway and fulfilling its goals of examining the functional status of persons age 70 and older. This past fall, we were pleased to learn that our fruitful work with the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, supporting their important mission to react to expo- sures from hazardous substances in the environment, will continue for another five years. Finally, we have begun conducting the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances, which is the third time we have conducted this crucial study of the American people’s household assets.

2 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 3 Board of Trustees Life Trustees

Vincent P. Barabba Robert T. Michael Richard P. Saller Robert McC. Adams William Kruskal General Manager Eliakim Hastings Moore Dean Former Secretary Ernest DeWitt Burton Distinguished Strategic Decision Center Distinguished Service Professor Division of the Social Sciences Smithsonian Institution Service Professor Emeritus General Motors Corporation Harris School of Public Policy Studies, Professor Washington, D.C. Department of Statistics Warren, Michigan Department of Education Departments of History and Classics University of Chicago and the College University of Chicago William Cannon Chicago, Illinois Harry L. Davis University of Chicago Chicago, Illinois Professor Emeritus Roger L. and Rachel M. Goetz Chicago, Illinois School of Social Service William Sewell Professor Stephen M. Stigler Administration Vilas Research Professor Emeritus Graduate School of Business Ralph W. Muller Ernest DeWitt Burton Distinguished University of Chicago Department of Sociology University of Chicago President Service Professor Chicago, Illinois University of Wisconsin at Madison Chicago, Illinois University of Chicago Hospitals Department of Statistics Madison, Wisconsin University of Chicago University of Chicago D. Gale Johnson Edward O. Laumann Chicago, Illinois Chicago, Illinois Eliakim Hastings Moore Eleanor Sheldon George Herbert Mead Distinguished Distinguished Service Professor Former President Service Professor and Chairman Arthur C. Nielsen, Jr. Geoffrey R. Stone Emeritus and Chairman Social Science Research Council Department of Sociology Chairman Emeritus Harry Kalven, Jr. Distinguished Undergraduate Programs, New York, New York University of Chicago A.C. Nielsen Company Service Professor Department of Economics Chicago, Illinois Deerfield, Illinois Provost and the College University of Chicago University of Chicago Wendy Levinson Janet L. Norwood Chicago, Illinois Chicago, Illinois Professor and Chief Senior Fellow Internal Medicine Section The Urban Institute Joseph P. Sullivan Nathan Keyfitz Department of Medicine Washington, D.C. Chief Executive Officer Andelot Professor of Demography University of Chicago Vigoro Corporation and Sociology Emeritus Chicago, Illinois Kenneth Prewitt Chicago, Illinois Harvard University and International President Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Walter J. McNerney Social Science Research Council Judith M. Tanur Laxenburg, Austria Herman Smith Professor New York, New York Distinguished Teaching Professor of Health Policy Department of Sociology Evelyn Kitagawa J. L. Kellogg Graduate Dorothy P. Rice State University of New York- Professor Emeritus School of Management Professor Emeritus Stony Brook Department of Sociology Northwestern University Institute for Health and Aging Stony Brook, New York University of Chicago Evanston, Illinois University of California, San Francisco Chicago, Illinois San Francisco, California

Harry C. Roberts Sigmund E. Edelstone Professor Graduate School of Business University of Chicago Chicago, Illinois

4 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 5

<#> <#> NORC Senior Staff

President's Office Research Group Senior Research Scientists Survey Research Group Senior Survey Directors Phil DePoy Norman Bradburn Patricia Green Barbara Bailar Leslie Athey President Senior Vice President Thomas Hoffer Senior Vice President Donna Eisenhower MaryGrace Kovar Harrison Greene Pearl Zinner Edward Laumann for Survey Research Kenneth Rasinski Catherine Haggerty Special Assistant to the President Director, Ogburn-Stouffer Center Allen Sanderson Richard Rubin Gail Hoff for the Study of Social Organization Sam Schildhaus Vice President for Survey Operations Julia Ingels Administrative Group William Parish Susan Su Howard Speizer Alma Kuby Frederick Bone Director, Population Research Center Vice President for Survey Production Joan Law Director, Accounting Statistics and Methodology Barbara Schneider Jean Grant Sara Murphy Thomas Gerst Group Co-Director, Alfred P. Sloan Center Director, Downers Grove Leslie Scott Vice President and Treasurer on Parents, Children & Work Kirk Wolter Telephone Center Natalie Suter Senior Vice President for Roger Kruse Linda Waite Lucian Chuchro Lisa Thalji Statistics and Methodology Director, Human Resources Director, Center on the Demography Manager, Lake Park Telephone Krishna Winfrey Karen Rosenthal and Economics of Aging Robert Santos Center Manager, Communications Co-Director, Alfred P. Sloan Center Vice President Jody Dougherty on Parents, Children & Work Wigen Yap Senior Methodologists Manager, Lake Park Deputy Director, Bernard Dugoni Data Preparation Center Research Vice Presidents Finance and Administration Robert Johnson Charlene Weiss Dean Gerstein Michele Zimowski Director, Field Operations Center Information Services Substance Abuse, Mental Health, Senior Statisticians Harrison Greene and Disability Studies Douglas Baum Laszlo Engelman Manager, (Director of Washington Office) Director, Computer Services Rachel Harter Survey Operations Center Craig Hill MaryAnn Hill Allen Chereskin Lisa Thalji Health Services Research Director, Production Programming Benjamin King Manager, Jack Covington Nicholas Holt Survey Operations Center Epidemiology and Public Health Director, Project Management Research Joseph Taylor Director, Product Management Steven Ingels Education Studies and Engineering Suzanne Turner Michael Pergamit Economic Studies Associate Director, Proposal and IS Project Control

6 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 7 Roger F. Kruse Howard Speizer Director of Human Resources Vice President for Survey Production

Roger Kruse joined NORC at the end of 1996, and has played a major role in changes In November, Howard Speizer joined NORC as Vice President for Surv e y NORC has implemented over the last year. Mr. Kruse brings to NORC not only Production. In this role, Mr. Speizer assumes management responsibility for our his extensive experience with nonprofit corporations but also a strategic and global telephone data collection, data preparation, and survey mailout services, bringing perspective on human resources. Prior to joining NORC, Mr. Kruse served as Director over 15 years of survey research experience to this position. Most recently, he was of Human Resources, General Conference, MIS, and Administrative Services for a Senior Associate at Abt Associates (1995-1997). Prior to that he served as a Project the United Methodist Church. In this role, he was responsible for human resources Director and Senior Information Systems Manager at NORC (1987-1995), and as a planning for this large, multi-location religious group. Before working for the United Mathematical Statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1982-1987). Methodist Church, Mr. Kruse spent 20 years as the Executive Director of the Mesa He has an extensive background in information systems, and in applying these Education Association, where he managed human resources, labor relations, and technologies to improve survey processes. Mr. Speizer has directed a number of contract negotiations for a 5,600-member school employees union. survey process improvement initiatives over the years including: designing and In the short time Mr. Kruse has been at NORC, his accomplishments have had a major implementing an Intranet application for survey project data dissemination; improv i n g impact on NORC’s staff and culture. Since his arrival, Mr. Kruse has reinforced data management and communication technology to accelerate the collection and NORC’s commitment to life-long learning opportunities for our staff, revamping our review of survey data; developing systems and processes for improving the accuracy tuition reimbursement programs and establishing a joint program between NORC of computer-assisted data entry and data coding operators; and developing a TQM- and the Keller Graduate School of Management, which allows NORC staff to take based telephone interview monitoring methodology. management courses and earn credit toward MBAs and other masters degree Mr. Speizer also has experience in strategic and project management applications. programs. In addition, NORC is offering quarterly seminars on a wide-range of While at NORC, he was the Project Director for the First Follow-up of the management topics. Baccalaureate and Beyond survey (B&B:93/94), as well as the analytic component Mr. Kruse is especially interested in diversity awareness, recruitment, and training, of the Third Follow-up of the National Education Longitudinal Survey of 1988 and he has already implemented innovative diversity training initiatives throughout (NELS:88/94). He was responsible for survey system development, implementation, the company. One of Mr. Kruse’s main goals is to make the human resources func- and support for many other NORC projects including multiple waves of the High tion an integral part of NORC’s total business operation, so that we can ensure that School and Beyond (HS&B) survey, the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth we attract, hire, and retain the very best personnel in survey re s e a rch and (NLSY79), and the Job Training Partnership Act Evaluation (JTPA). related areas. Currently, Mr. Speizer is working with the management team of the Survey Pr oduction areas to upgrade technical skills at the supervisor and interviewer levels; provide an improved work environment and incentives to increase retention rates; develop more productive survey systems and processes; and continually improve the quality of the work perfo r med in the data collection and data preparation facilities.

8 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 9 NORC is analyzing the financial health of Americans.

The Survey of Consumer Finances de c i sions the government makes about the Perhaps no issue ga l v a - (SCF) is the only national source of financial stability of the country. information on assets at the house- We can easily see the importance of these nizes people’s attention hold level—family savings, pension data by looking at some of the results of the plans, consumer debt loads. The 1995 SCF. For example, the 1995 survey as much as money. Money SCF is also the only study that found that between 1992 and 1995 the median examines the wealthiest Americans family net income and net worth rose. In shapes everyone’s life. in a special sample. The data NORC addition, the SCF found that American collects (purged of all identifying households had greatly expanded their stock i n f o rmation) are widely used by Interest rates determine whether or not a young couple will be holdings. The survey also found that con- C o n g ressional committees and gov- sumer debt had indeed increased, but did not ernment departments such as Treasury, able to afford their first home. Inflation can wreak havoc on find that this increase caused debt payment Justice, Agriculture, and Commerce, to p roblems for American families (sourc e : analyze the financial health of Kennickell, Starr-McCluer, & Sunden, 1997). international markets or on a family’s budget. That makes the Americans, which in turn affects public Comparing the results of the SCF studies policy on finances. For example, these every three years is crucial to understanding Survey of Consumer Finances especially important because it data are used to model the distribution of changes and trends in America’s finances. wealth in America, which could influence has far-reaching implications for the American public. The changes in the tax code in terms of things NORC has just concluded the SCF pretest such as capital gains or even the tax rates and is gearing up for the main study, which themselves. The government also studies will use computer-assisted personal inter- Federal Reserve Board commissions this survey, and it is just these data to examine the stability of viewing (CAPI) technology to collect data consumer debt and how its relative stability from a dual frame sample: a national area one of the many factors that ultimately influence the Board’s will affect monetary policy. We may not probability sample of households and a list see the effects of this information in our sample known to include a high proportion of monetary policy decisions. The 1998 Survey will mark the everyday lives, but it is behind many of the high-income households (in the top two percent of the American population). third time that NORC has conducted this critical study.

10 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 11 How do unwed parents cope with pressure?

The name of this study says it all: Fragile change, this exciting study will have impor- Families and Child Wellbeing. Sponsored by tant policy implications in the areas of child the Ford Foundation and led by Principal support enforcement, welfare reform, and Investigators Sara McLanahan, Irwin Garfi n k e l , health care. and Jeanne Brooks-Gunn, this study will Currently underway, Fragile Families is provide new information on child wellbeing following a new birth cohort of parents in these fragile families. The study seeks to and children in Austin, Oakland, Newark, gain important data on the economic and and Richmond, and other cities may be social conditions of unwed parents, especially added. The sample includes African- By the time you finish reading this page, a child will be born to an the fathers, as well as to understand the American, Hispanic, and white children, nature of the family relationships. Does the as well as a control group of married father have a steady job? How well do the unwed mother somewhere in America. Nearly a third of American parents. Unlike other studies, NORC parents get along? What factors influence interviewers are asking both mothers their decisions to live together or marry? children are born to unmarried parents, and that number increases and fathers about their involvement, Does the father’s involvement improve child community services, and child well- wellbeing? In addition the study will examine being, and NORC will follow the for African-American and Hispanic children. The effect on American questions such as what factors encourage or children and parents for four years. discourage the father’s involvement in their society is profound and immediate because it will impact how we children’s lives? What role do extended fam- ilies, social networks, community services, and government policies play in promoting use our tax dollars to educate all children, how we allocate welfare the father’s involvement, good parenting, or healthy child development? As health care dollars, and how we deal with rising juvenile crime rates. p o l i c y, welfare and Medicaid eligibility

12 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 13 NO R C’s new Sloan Center is exa m i n i n g th e dynamics of today’s working families.

In the 1950s, the typical American family was a “nuclear” family: Mom When American women joined the work- p s y c h o l o g y, public policy, and sociology, force en masse in the 70s and 80s, they did and supports the work of twelve graduate more than earn a paycheck; they redefined students and two post-doctoral students. was a homemaker, Dad worked, society. These changes have made it crucial While only founded last fall, the Center is to better understand the influences on, as a l ready highly productive: faculty and and the children went to school. well as the nature of, today’s families. graduate students are analyzing data C o n c e rns over day care, latchkey kids, from existing databases, and they are and balancing work and family are just These roles were tightly woven preparing for their own data collection a few of the pressing issues for parents. The slated for later this year. And the Center is studying these issues, and is also into America’s social fabric. Now, Center’s workshop for faculty and grad- ex a m i n i n g multigenerational families and uate students meets monthly to discuss how having grandparents in the household important issues and current work. more than 40 years later, the weave affects parenting.

These questions about the issues and has loosened and the threads have p re s s u res facing working parents and their children are at the core of the new tangled. Many households have only A l f red P. Sloan Foundation Center on P a rents, Children & Wo r k at the University of Chicago and NORC. This Center, one of one parent, and in those with two three funded by the Foundation, focuses on how parents who work full-time manage the parents, both are likely to work le a r ning experiences and social development of their children. The Sloan Center involves faculty members and graduate students outside the home. f rom economics, human development,

14 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 15 Approximately one-third of U.S. Ph.D.s are awarded to foreign-born students, many

of whom return to their native countries. In today’s global economy, tracking this

flow of knowledge through U.S. universities is crucial for evaluating our work force

as well as those of other countries. It’s also important for our national interests to

know where students who have trained at the doctoral level are currently working.

The Doctorate Data Project assesses Am e r i c a ’ s competitive capabilities.

NORC’s Doctorate Data Project, were awarded in fiscal 1997, and we expect some unique challenges both because of conducted for the National Science to collect SED data from 95 percent of the the great mobility of this most highly Foundation, is the only national graduates earning those degrees. Each year educated group, and because a survey that looks at this particular the SED data are added to a larger historical large proportion live abroad, espe- labor market and allows us to assess record of doctorate degree graduates, the cially in the People's Republic of America’s capabilities, especially in Doctorate Records File (DRF). The data in this China, the Republic of Korea, India, science and engineering. Federal file stretch back to 1920 and contain annual and Taiwan. agencies, Congress, universities, and information used to track the numbers of Both surveys contain a large analysis p rofessional associations use this graduates in various fields, the educational component, and NORC has already data to make policy decisions on such paths of scientists, engineers, and humanists, begun responding to special analysis things as educational funding, strategic and the movement of graduates into the labor requests for previous waves of the planning, and labor force projections. market. SDR. In addition, the historical SED To gain these valuable data actually The second study, the SDR, tracks the file is used for a host of standard takes two related but entirely sepa- employment history and res e a r ch prod u c t i v i t y analysis reports as well as individual- rate studies, the Survey of Earn e d of members of the doctoral labor force as they ized special requests. Doctorates (SED) and the Survey of move through their careers in research an d Doctorate Recipients (SDR). The SED practice. Every two years a panel sample of gathers information about graduates’ a p p roximately 50,000 Ph.D. scientists and educational histories, funding sourc e s , engineers complete a self-administered and post-doctoral plans from all recipients q u e s t i o n n a i re focusing on their career of research doctorates earned from any trajectories, labor market movement, and degree-granting institution in the United p rofessional pro d u c t i v i t y. Each SDR cycle States. Because this information is collected includes members of the previous wave panel at universities, NORC works very closely as well as a new sample of recent doctorate with university staffs to ensure that we d e g ree recipients. An additional sample maintain a high response rate. For example, of National Science Foundation fellows a p p roximately 45,000 re s e a rch doctorates augments the 1997 survey. The SDR poses

16 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 17 The Second Longitudinal Study of Aging addresses challenges faced by the elderly.

As life expectancy continues to rise for both men and women, understanding The Second Longitudinal Study of Aging way toward showing that elderly people (LSOA II) affects us all; whether we’re in the were not necessarily deteriorated people. midst of our own twilight years or caring for And while popular belief conjectured that our elderly population becomes increasingly important. What an older loved one, the challenges of aging elderly people were isolated, LSOA I are something we must all face eventually. showed that although these people may allows older Americans And as the huge group of Baby Boomers not have had frequent face-to-face contact begins to move into old age, the answer with their children, they did have to remain independent? revealed by this study will take on special frequent telephone contact. In addition, meaning for a generation that defined the LSOA I showed that the middle age glories (and excesses) of youth. The data population frequently support their How has managed care collected from this sample of non-institution- parents as well as their own children. alized persons age 70 and older will very NORC is currently completing data affected their access to likely influence public policy as the governm e n t collection with a subsample of 9,663 considers changing the eligibility ages for persons who were aged 70 years or health care? What role Social Security and Medicare. older when first interviewed as part of the 1994 National Health In t e rv i e w This study, sponsored by the National Center S u rv e y ’s Second Supplement on for Health Statistics, addresses issues sur- do their families play? Aging. NORC is conducting the rounding the living arrangements, functional interviews via computer-assisted tele- a b i l i t y, and financial status of America’s phone intervi ewing (CATI) and self- elderly population. administered questionnaires (SAQs) Because LSOA II is a second generation for non-telephone households and study, one of its major objectives is to repli- those who would prefer not to be cate portions of LSOA I in order to update interviewed by telephone. what we learned about this population and to determine whether the next generation is aging in the same way. LSOA I went a long

18 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 19 What is the impact of hazardous environmental exp o s u r e s ?

Practically every day, local and The Agency for Toxic Substances and ammonium releases; and of course studies Disease Registry (ATSDR) is one of the that respond to emerg e n c y, unplanned government agencies that addresses emer- releases of hazardous substances. national news broadcasts carry gencies such as these, as well as other In 1997, NORC’s ATSDR studies were potentially hazardous environmental expo- widely varied, including a surveillance of stories about chemical spills and sures that may have a long-term health hazardous waste workers, interviewing impact. It is a very complex mission, and sample members in the National that is why we are so proud to have played other accidents that could potentially Exposure Registry, examining the asso- a role in this vital and rewarding work. ciation between parental environ m e n t a l affect the health of those in the vicinity. For the last five years, NORC has offered and occupational exposures and their Support Services to ATSDR, conducting children’s risk of developing Wilms’ complex surveys, extensive locating, medical Tumors, investigating releases from No one ever thinks that an environmental rec o r ds abstractions, and public informa t i o n the Fresh Kills Landfill in Staten campaigns. Late in 1997, we were excited Island, multiple studies associated disaster will affect them. But small town or large city, no place is to learn that we were awarded a new with a federal facility in Cape Cod, five-year contract that will enable us assessing lead exposure in children, completely impervious to the forces of these disasters. Tracking to continue this important and challeng- and studying the long-term effects ing work. of radioactive releases in the 1940s of Iodine-131 in the Hanford , While planning for the new contract is still these events, as well as keeping the government and public Washington area. For more infor- in its preliminary phase, we believe the mation on these ATSDR studies, next year will include a complex study of a please see the Epidemiology and informed, is part of this potentially life-saving project. release of radioactive toxins in 1950 from Public Health Studies section. the Hanford Nuclear Reservation in the Washington area; a national case control study of a pediatric brain tumor; studies of

20 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 21 Economics Studies Division

In the following pages, we briefly detail current NORC research studies. Fo r Economics isn’t just about global issues and U.S. Department of Defense developed the trade imbalances–it’s local, too. It affects your A S VAB tests to determine eligibility for job, your life, the decisions you make around military service among young adults, and more information about these or other NORC studies, please contact us at: your kitchen table. Studying the economic the Interest Finder is intended to aid youths fo r ces that shape society is a vital underta k i n g . in career exploration. NORC tested NORC Our studies show how economics influence a p p roximately 14,300 youth in Sylvan 1155 East 60th Street the choices we make. Prometric Testing Centers. Chicago, Illinois 60637 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 97 The NLSY97 School Survey obtained fac- (NLSY97). (773) 753-7500 Sponsored by the Bureau of Labor tual information about schools and their Statistics (BLS), NLSY97 gathers information programs. BLS, researchers, and federal about the life and labor market experiences and state policymakers will use the data [email protected] of youth who were age 12 to 16 on January from this survey to address the roles of 1, 1997. The survey is expected to be con- schools, families, individuals, peers, Or visit our web site at: ducted with these same youth each year for n e i g h b o rhoods, and employment in www.norc.uchicago.edu many years to come in order to track their influencing today's youth as they move experiences from the worlds of schooling from school to work and, more gener- and their families of origin to the worlds of ally, from adolescence to adulthood. work and independent living. The NLSY97 The School Survey instrument cap- survey involves several components: three t u res institutional-level attributes separate face-to-face interviews with youths like school policies and management and parents using CAPI and audio computer- as well as student-level “experience” assisted self interviewing (audio-CASI) data. NORC surveyed 5,294 school t e c h n o l o g y, administration of the Arm e d administrators across the United S e rvices Vocational Aptitude Battery and States as part of NLSY97. D e p a rtment of Defense (DOD) Intere s t National Survey of Indigent Finder, and a school survey. NLSY97 was Defense Systems. In part n e r s h i p NORC's second major use of audio-CASI; the with the Spangenberg Gro u p Pr ospective Longitudinal Study of Adolescent under a cooperative agreement Health was the first. NLSY97 surpassed the with the Bureau of Justice previous effort by using audio-CASI for both Statistics (BJS), NORC is con- the youths and their parents. ducting this study to collect During the NLSY97 screening process, a nationwide data on the types of sample of youths 12 to 23 years of age were criminal defense systems used identified and asked to take the A rm e d in each of the 50 states, including S e rvices Vocational Aptitude Battery costs and caseload assessment, (ASVAB) and the DOD Interest Finder. The which will then be compared

1997 Annual Report NORC 23 Education Studies Division

with baseline data collected in ethnicities were re p resented, with gro u p s Just what is the state of education in the Vice President Al Gore presented prel i m i n a r y 1982 and 1986. Of particular ranging in size from 98 to 225. Questionnaires United States? Education affects the nation’s results at his Conference on the Family in interest is the application of the were translated into Chinese, Korean, and fu t u r e–and your future, too. That’s why nearly Nashville, Tennessee in June of 1997. system in the juvenile courts, Spanish. The sample is structured with three everyone has an interest in this subject. Our B a c c a l a u reate and Beyond Longitudinal death penalty cases and other matched pairs of ethnicities; each pair studies look at the many facets of the edu- Study–Second Follow-up (B&B). Sp o n s o re d specialty programs, the assign- includes business owners from two ethnicities, cational system. Teachers, students, and the by the National Center for Education ment of counsel, compensation one Hispanic and one East Asian, both of similar schools themselves are all subjects for our Statistics (NCES), B&B is designed to amounts, and indigence screen- rates of self-employment among immigrants in-depth explorations of how children learn, ad d re s s federal financial aid policy ques- ing. NORC will design a sample to the United States. The questionnaire and how teachers teach. tions conce r ning the long-term impact of and collect data from public addresses human capital investment, sources Study of Opportunities for and Barriers to ed u c a t i o n a l debt. B&B is the first study defenders' offices across the nation of social support, occupation history prior to Family Involvement in Education. Sp o n s o re d that examines how undergraduate debt to develop estimates of staff i n g immigration, and other typical determinants by the Department of Education's Planning affects students' subsequent decisions size, expenditures, and methods of self-employment. and Evaluation Service, this study gathers co n c e r ning graduate st u d y , employment, employed in mounting representa- The small budget of the study, together with information about the attitudes and experi- and family formation. In addition, tion for indigent defendants. formidable resistance within the target com- ences of parents of primary and middle embedded within B&B is a second NORC will collect data from secondary munities has demanded creative, evolutionary school children. This CATI study uses the longitudinal survey of teachers that data sources including annual reports data collection. In 1997, effort on the study sample from the 1996 General Social Survey, investigates entry into and exit from and statistical re p o rts from public was focused on completing data collection which permits it to draw from the breadth of the teaching profession among one defender agencies and court adminis- activities, primarily through in-person intervi e w s the GSS sample and to gain valuable demo- co h o r t of beginning teachers. trative offices, as well as from self- and “drive and deliver” fielding techniques. graphic and behavioral data collected in the To address these issues, B&B selected a d m i n i s t e red hardcopy instru m e n t s In “drive and deliver,” trained NORC field GSS interv i e w. The Family Involvement a national sample of over 11,000 f rom county government officials, staff drive to a site in which there is a cluster qu e s t i o n n a i r e focuses on opportunities that st u d e n t s who received baccalaurea t e indigent defense programs within each of respondents, attempt to gain respondent schools offer to parents to be involved in their degrees in the academic year 1992- county including public defenders, cooperation, deliver questionnaires for self- children's learning, parents' assessments of 1993. The longitudinal design calls assigned counsels, or contract programs. administration, then pick up the questionnaires those opportunities, their demand for after- for following these sample mem- at a later date. This method exploits gaining school and summer enrichment programs, Study of Ethnic Business Owners. This bers for a period of twelve years, cooperation techniques, a key strength of and their attitudes toward their level of study in the city of Chicago is funded and interviewing them at three- in-person interviewing, but is much less involvement in their children's schooling. through grants from the National Science or four-year intervals. NORC expensive because it combines several Foundation (NSF) and the MacArt h u r Parents reported high levels of involvement conducted the first follow-up of respondents into a single locating eff o rt . Foundation to a faculty member at the with their children's schools, but even higher B&B in 1994, and is currently in Budget permitting, additional data editing University of Michigan, Silvia Pedraza. The levels of demand for additional involvement. the midst of data collection for and retrieval activities may be undertaken as study seeks to illuminate differential rates of Overall, primary school parents were more the second follow-up. data analysis begins. entrepreneurship across immigrant ethnici- involved and more satisfied with their inter- B&B marked NORC’s first ties. A sample of 944 business owners was ac t i o n s with children's schools than were combination CATI-CAPI effo rt , drawn from Chamber of Commerce lists. Six middle school parents. and it was quite successful,

24 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 25 with a nearly 92 percent overall Highlights of the rep o r t include: Curriculum and Instruction in High Schools Catholic University Analysis Pro j e c t . response rate. The CATI data Catholic University of America received a Student Achievement High school students are completing sub- collection began in April 1997, grant in 1996 from the Lily Foundation to stantially more math and science courses and was completed in July with Although the general pattern for mathe- conduct a comprehensive study of the than in the early 80s. Enrollments have a response rate of 64 percent. In matics and science achievement test scores history, current status, and future prospects grown rapidly in more advanced courses late May, the first wave of cases for upper-elementary and secondary school of Catholic education in the United States. like trigonometry, calculus, chemistry, from those not interviewed by students was one of decline or stagnation As part of this project, they commissioned and physics. telephone were sent to the field during the 70s, the pattern of the 80s Tom Hoffer of NORC to review and extend for CAPI interviews. These initial showed steady increases. The overall scores Student achievement scores show greater research on the effects of Catholic eleme n - waves re p resented some of the show gains over the 80s for all age groups in gains over the high school years among ta r y and secondary schooling on student more difficu l t refusal and unlocat- both math and science. students who take more math and science academic achievement. The report was courses. The pattern of greater gains holds able cases that had been worked Gender diffe r ences in average mathematics presented in May at a conference held at for students who start high school at lower without success in the telephone achievement test scores have diminished Catholic University and is being pub- levels of mastery, as well as for students ce n t e r . NOR C CMS (Case Management over the past two decades. Gender differ- lished in Catholic Education. System) facilitated the seamless who begin at relatively high levels of ences in average science achievement test The report reviews the basic descriptive transition between the CATI and mastery. scores have also diminished, but males still data on achievement diffe r ences between CAPI systems. The interface between score significantly higher at each age level. Among students who go to college, those public and Catholic school students, these systems also increased effi c i e n c y who complete higher levels of high school Non-Hispanic white youth continue to score and the main theories that explain by overlapping field interv i e w i n g mathematics and science are less likely to much higher than black or Hispanic youth Catholic sector effects on student activities with efforts taking place in drop out of college. on standardized tests of math and science, achievement outcomes. The main the- the telephone center. but the differences declined from the late Teachers and Teaching ories are cast in terms of competitive NSF Indicators Project. The National 1970s to 1992. Since the average scores of markets, the communities in which Many math and science teachers have Science Foundation publishes Science all groups have increased over this period, the schools are embedded, and the very little training in math and science, and Engineering Indicators every two the convergence is real improvement and historical purposes of the schools. The pa r ticularly among elementary and middle- years, and has contracted with NORC to not a leveling down of scores toward analytical research is then reviewed grade teachers. In 1993, less than 4 perce n t produce the chapter on elementary and greater equality. and extended with some original of elementary math and science teachers secondary science and mathematics edu- analyses from recently collected While international comparisons of math had majored in mathematics or mathematics cation. This project entailed a comprehen- national survey data on high school and science achievement rank U.S. students education, or science or science education. sive overview of achievement trends from students. The main points from the below most other industrial nations, students Only 11 percent of middle school math the National Assessment of Education review and extension of empirical in some states are at about the same level teachers and 21 percent of science teach- Progress and from international studies, as research are: as the average students in the higher- ers majored in their fields of teaching well as a synthesis of recent research on achieving nations. specialization. In 1993, 63 percent of high Catholic high schools have positive c u rriculum and instruction, and teachers school math teachers, and 72 percent ef fects on verbal and mathematics and school organization. of high school science teachers had in- achievement, but no discerna b l e field majors. effects on science.

26 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 27 Catholic school effects are Public Attitudes Toward and Understanding National Study of Postsecondary Faculty graders; direct socioemotional, psychomotor g reater for students from of Science and Technology. On behalf of NSF, (NSOPF:93). The 1992-93 National Study of and physical (anthropometric) assessments, disadvantaged backgrounds, the Chicago Academy of Sciences conducts P o s t s e c o n d a ry Faculty (NSOPF:93) is the and indirect (parent and teacher report) especially those from single- this annual test of the public's science/tech- most comprehensive survey ever conducted socioemotional and cognitive assessments parent households. nology knowledge levels. The 30-minute of higher education instructional and non- as well. In addition, questionnaires for questionnaire covers a wide range of topics, instructional full-time and part-time faculty. school administrators, kinderga r ten throu g h The main factor accounting for including levels of interest in current events; The study provides a national profile of faculty: second grade teachers, special education the Catholic school effects is use of museums, zoos, etc.; understanding and their professional backgrounds, res p o n s i b i l i t i e s , te a c h e r s , and parents of kindergartners, the greater concentration of use of the Internet; knowledge about scientific workloads, salaries, benefits, and attitudes. first and second graders, were developed, academic course-taking among methods and specific techniques; attitudes along with archival records abstraction Catholic school students. Two NSOPF-93 surveys–one of faculty and towards space exploration and nuclear power; procedures. Fall and spring measures for one of institutions–were completed by NORC The most glaring gap that the rep o r t and many other topics. NORC conducted k i n d e rg a rten, and spring first grade in late 1993 and early 1994. In this final year identifies in the research record is 2,003 interviews with an RDD population rep- measures, were field-tested in 1996 and of the contract, NORC presented NSOPF-93 the lack of data to assess effects resenting all 50 states from May through July, 1997. The most challenging aspect of data on discrepancies, and a report on the of Catholic elementary school atten- obtaining a cooperation rate of 73 percent. the field test was direct CAPI-based reliability of the revised faculty estimates at dance. assessment of kinderga rt e n and first College & Beyond (C&B). NORC completed the final NSOPF-93 National Technical Review grade students. NORC's field staff Teacher Validation Study. NSF has its work on the College & Beyond grant for the Panel meeting. A draft questionnaire was achieved the targeted numbers of awarded NORC a grant to identify Andrew W. Mellon Foundation in January. submitted in April. In December, an institu- o b s e rvations on schedule and on ways to collect accurate survey data on The final tasks included a study of nonre- tion-level descriptive report was completed, budget, and item statistics from the elementary teachers' classroom prac- sponse bias and a methodology report, which and a faculty trends rep o r t and other analytic field test indicate that the newly- tices. Kindergarten, first, and second included a comparison of respondents and reports for NCES were finalized in June. developed assessment batteries grade teachers from 12 schools in the nonrespondents on four demographic vari- Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, meet or exceed their psychometric midwest will complete detailed daily ables–gender, race/ethnicity, education, and K i n d e rg a rten Cohort, Phase I (ECLS-K). goals. The field test has conclusively logs on their curriculum objectives and income. We found no significant gender or The kindergarten cohort study will provide established the feasibility of instructional practices. The project will race/ethnicity diffe r ences between res p o n d e n t national data describing childre n ’s status p roceeding with Phase II, the also collect and code the textbooks, work- and nonrespondent populations; res p o n d e n t s at entry into school, transitions into school, main study, in terms of the mea- sheets, tests, and other documentary had higher levels of educational attainment and pro g ression through fifth grade. s u rement instruments; school, materials used in the classes. Finally, we and higher incomes than did nonrespondents Ad d i t i o n a l l y , ECLS-K will enable res e a rc h e r s parent, and student cooperation; will administer standard questionnaire s (the direction of the bias in our control group to study how a wide range of family, school, and sampling, data collection about objectives and practices to the will help the Mellon Foundation in gauging c o m m u n i t y, and individual factors aff e c t and other procedures. teachers, and the questionnaire data will the importance of undergraduate experiences early success in school. Phase I of the ECLS-K, be compared with the logs and documents. and achievements for later personal and included pilot tests and a large-scale field While primarily methodological, this study professional successes). test. NORC and its subcontractors developed will also provide interesting material for sub- a cognitive assessment battery for dire c t stantive analyses on the work of elementary administration to kindergartners and first teachers and schools.

28 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 29 Epidemiology and Public Health Division

Public health issues are actually We are currently projecting a 70 percent No. 8.5 Otis Exposure Dose Reconstru c t i o n . operational at Hanford. The chemical pro- very personal. Every disease or raw completion rate. This study investigates ethylene dibro- cessing plants were used to extract plutonium illness takes a human toll. The mide (EDB) contamination in Hatchville, and uranium. The largest releases of No. 36 1997 NER Update. The National studies we perform are done Massachusetts, at the Otis Air Force Base. radioactive material were of iodine-131, Exposure Registry is a long-term effort to with the goal of helping people, There is reason to suspect that the con- which occurred following chemical extrac- collect information concerning the impact of whether it’s looking at the cause tamination may have affected grou n d w a t e r tion of plutonium from spent uranium h a z a rdous substances on human health. and effect of a disease, or tracking qu a l i t y in the underlying aquifer and surface through dissolution in acid. The highest The Registry, which consists of multiple sub- its spread. We know that our water quality in nearby Coonamessett River. releases were between December 1944 registries, is a listing of persons exposed to work can save lives. That’s why Exposure-dose reconstruction activities are and December 1947 when 740,000 curies selected hazardous substances. At the time we never forget that there are to be conducted in order to quantify the of iodine-131 were released. In 1948, filters they are enrolled, subregistry members are people behind the numbers. potential health risk for humans in the area. were installed so that releases of iodine- interviewed to collect baseline health and These activities will quantify potential exposure 131 from the separation plants were S u p p o rt Services for the Agency demographic data. To assess long-term health patterns, times of exposure, and frequency greatly reduced. This project team will for Toxic Substances and Disease effects, periodic follow-ups of registrants are of exposure. locate and contact all people born in a R e g i s t ry (AT S D R ) . As noted above, conducted to update the baseline information. three-county area in preparation for NORC has had a very busy and The panel sample is composed of four chemical No. 8.6 Bourne, MA School Surv e y. Six the administration of a baseline ques- productive year collaborating with subregistries representing people who have of the public schools on Cape Cod are located tionnaire. Participants will be enrolled ATSDR, and we look forward to con- been exposed to one of four toxic substances. on the Otis Air National Guard Base. Parents in the Iodine-131 subregistry of the tinuing our work over the next five Exposures were residential in nature, and have expressed concerns about the exposure NER. This challenging locating task years. Below are ATSDR task orders thus the study systems must accommodate a risk for children attending these schools. We req u i r es us to locate sample members that NORC conducted in 1997. hierarchical grouping of registrants. are currently conducting a mail survey of based on 40- to 50-year-old birth p a rents, which contains both closed-and No. 31 Hazardous Waste Workers Study. No. 28 Wilms’ Tu m o r. This study is designed ce r tificate information. Using rec o rd s open-ended questions on enviro n m e n t a l This study examines construction work- to examine the associations between Wilms' matching techniques, we have exposures and health conditions. The survey ers who have completed a specialized tumor (WT) risk and environmental exposures , developed sample profiles for each is being sponsored by the Bourne School two-week training designed to provide specifically from hazardous waste sites, as member of the list sample from Superintendent's Office and the Bourn e them with the skills necessary to handle well as parental occupational exposure s . other regional datasets. Parent Teacher Association, with assistance h a z a rdous wastes. The 1997-98 data NORC identified eligible cases from ATSDR- from ATSDR. No. 34 Immunotoxicity in Children collection round represents our second supplied sample files gained from state-based Exposed to Lead. ATSDR has used year of following-up this sample, and we tumor registries, located and identified eligi- No. 16 Hanford Follow-Up. This project an immune biomarker panel to are about to begin our third year. The ble participants (the parents of WT cases), covers health study activities associated with assess the impact of exposure on sample has demonstrated high mobility: purchased a random digit dial (RDD) sample the release of radioactive materials from the immune system functioning for 45 percent of the panel per year require to serve as controls, and administered data Hanford Nuclear Reservation near Richland, many of its community-based extensive locating. Each participant must collection instruments to participants using Washington. The Hanford site was selected health investigations. NORC will be interviewed within 30 days of the C ATI technology. We perf o rmed re a l - t i m e in 1943 as the location for facilities used to trace 158 children who were anniversary of their baseline interview, and c a s e - c o n t rol matching. NORC completed pro d u c e plutonium for atomic bombs during found to have out-of-range 70 percent of the sample have been interviews with 303 case sample members WWII. In 1944 and 1945, three nuclear rea c t o r s biomarker readings in these i n t e rviewed within the 30-day window. and 575 respondents in a control group. and two chemical processing plants were

30 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 31 p revious studies. A short No. 17 Hanford Infant Morbidity and and in-depth health interviews. Baseline about child-proofed and personalized guns, questionnaire will be adminis- M o rtality Analysis. This ATSDR study in t e r views and examinations were completed in addition to questions about perceptions of tered over the telephone; the investigates whether rates of infant mortality with each of the participants in 1982, and what particular advertising meant to the l a b o r a t o ry services contractor and fetal death differ according to the iodine- follow-up interviews and examinations were respondents. will then arrange to collect a 131 exposure classification of re s i d e n c e . completed in 1985, 1987, and 1992. The According to this study, in response to the morning blood sample from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction current study represents a 15-year follow-up, high level of gun violence in America, the ch i l d r en. The purpose of this study (HEDR) estimates of iodine-131 dose exposure and the final follow-up is planned for 2002. public supports a wide range of gun control is to remeasure and assess both to a child will be used to estimate level of For this study, NORC conducted the tele- measures to regulate firearms. Majorities the predictive value of sensitive exposure for a given geographic area. The phone effort to contact and recruit study favor such measures as registering all markers of immune suppression, study will analyze spatial and temporal respondents; developed the 1997 follow-up guns, requiring that all new handguns as well as the long-term stability of trends in infant and fetal death rates as well questionnaire, based on the questionnaires be child-proofed, regulating the safety these markers. as cause-specific distribution of deaths. used in previous rounds of the survey; and design of guns, training and licensing During the course of this study, we abstracted No. 37 A Panel Study of Acute Res- conducted the in-person health interviews at handgun owners, and various other 90,000 certificates (birth and death); per- pi r a t o r y Outcomes on Staten Island. the examination site in La Jolla, CA. For the policies to make guns safer and less formed I/O coding of over 319,000 pairs; and The Fresh Kills Municipal Landfill is first time in this study, in-person health easily available. The public does not, deciphered 4,800 birth defects and causes of one of the oldest and largest in the i n t e rviews were conducted using CAPI ho w e v e r , favor banning guns. Likewise, death for ICD-9 coding. United States. The city of New York technology. Respondent recruitment began the public backs measures to deny established the landfill in 1948 as a 1997 Air Force Health Study. For the third in March of 1997, and will continue through guns to criminals by prohibiting those means of reclaiming land in a tidal time, NORC is part of the team assembled the end of the physical examination and convicted of a wide range of misde- swamp area. Approximately 40,000 by the Science Applications Intern a t i o n a l i n t e rviewing period at the beginning of meanors from purchasing guns. people live within 1/2 mile of the landfill, Corporation (SAIC) to conduct the 1997 April, 1998. To date we have recruited and which has long been a source of health follow-up of the Air Force Health Study, scheduled 99.5 percent of the anticipated concerns and odor complaints within which is sponsored by the United States Air final sample of 2,200 respondents. the local community. Local residents and Fo r ce. This is the fifth round of this longitudinal National Gun Policy Survey. The National physicians have expressed concern about study of potential long-term health effects of Gun Policy Survey is the first academic the impact of landfill emissions on respi- exposure to Agent Orange during military survey fully devoted to asking questions ratory morbidity, specifically asthma. service. This study, which has been cited as a about gun issues. This survey used a national “textbook” example of an epidemiological In Phase I, NORC conducted a listing and RDD sample to conduct telephone interviews cohort investigation, compares the health of outreach effort for residents surrounding with adults living in households with tele- Air Force personnel who were involved with the landfill. Residents were screened to phones. NORC worked closely with the aerial dissemination of herbicides in Vietnam identify those suffering from acute res p i r a t o r y Joyce Foundation, the Johns Hopkins Center from 1962 to 1971 as part of Operation Ranch conditions. In Phase II, NORC administered for Gun Policy and Research, and a national Hand with that of a group of unexposed people a baseline questionnaire and a six-week panel of experts to design the questionnaire, matched on age, race, and military occupation. daily diary protocol. Participants in the diary which focused on issues related to the For each round of the study, respondents par- phase also completed two self-administered ma n u f a c t u r e, sale, use of, and opinions about ticipate in a series of physical examinati o n s pulmonary function tests on a daily basis. guns. The questionnaire also included items

32 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 33 Health Services Research Division

The U.S. spends billions every NORC’s participation in MEPS reached peak (96 percent), both of which were concluded NORC survey staff faced many logistical year on health care services. levels in 1997. This year saw the launching of this year. NORC also concluded an intensive challenges in working with a sample What are we getting for that? a second panel (N=6,000 households) on the period of CAPI programming as we prepared accrued on a flow basis from practicing We’ve examined everything from Household Survey, while successive rounds of to launch the HCSUS Second Follow-up physicians who identified persons with 12 family access to care to the data collection continued on the first panel S u rvey in August. During the summer, months or less to live. Rapid turna r ound was types of medical treatment that (N=9,500 households). While NORC’s and NORC conducted a pretest of tasks associated required along with special sensitivity HIV patients receive. But some- Westat’s national field staffs worked hard to with medical/financial records collection and in interviewing these respondents, their time that care no longer offers achieve high, targeted response rates, our pharmacy records collection from providers relatives, and caregivers. hope. That’s when our studies have Data Preparation Center supported them by named by respondents in the Baseline Surve y . Our field interviewers found this difficult tracked attitudes toward death receipting, processing, and mailing out tens of In September, NORC began its telephone study extremely rewarding. The experi- and dying. These intensely personal thousands of documents. The Medical survey of formal and informal caregivers. We ence was best summed up by one of the surveys reveal how patients and Provider Survey (MPS) also got underway this are currently collecting dental records from interviewers who told us, “It truly has doctors deal with healthcare issues year, beginning with recruiting and training oral health providers. been an enlightening experience to be and even the end of life. in the spring, then telephone data collection Assessing Attitudes of Ter minally Ill Patients. able to work on this survey. Some of from an anticipated sample of approximately Medical Expenditure Panel Survey This year, NORC, in collaboration with the things that have made it so special 12,000 office-based providers. (MEPS). Sponsored by the Agency Harvard Medical School, successfully com- are the stories that you listen to. It is for Health Care Policy and Research HIV Cost and Services Utilization Study pleted a seminal study of the terminally ill, sometimes easy to let yourself (AHCPR) and under subcontract to (H C S U S ) . Sp o n s o r ed by the Agency for Health funded by the Commonwealth Fund and the become mechanical in the process of Westat, NORC is conducting MEPS Care Policy and Research, NORC and RAND Nathan Cummings Foundation. The survey collecting data. All that it takes for ( f o rmerly known as the National are collaborating on HCSUS to collect data on is designed to improve the understanding reality to come rushing back is to Medical Expenditure Study—NMES), what types of medical care HIV patients of factors that determine the quality of look in their eyes and you can see which is the latest in a series of national receive in the United States, and how much the dying process for both patients and the pain or peace as they come to health care expenditure surveys that that care costs. HCSUS is the first study to col- caregivers, and to develop information for grips with the reality of their death began in the 1970s. MEPS provides vast lect this vital information from a nationally patients, families, health care providers, and . . . I see their momentos. . . their detail about the nation's health care sys- representative sample of respondents. policymakers that can improve care at the pets, their favorite easy chair. . . tem, yielding a large data set with unique end of life. All around them are the things During the past year, NORC performed a links between household, employer, and they are losing. And yet, here heavy schedule of field data collection across Last year, NORC conducted Time 1 inter- healthcare provider-reported information. they are in front of you with such a variety of HCSUS components. The first views with approximately 1,000 patients and These data can be used to provide national spirit and poise, allowing their attempt ever to complete interviews with such their caregivers in six sites. Time 2 intervi e w s estimates of health care use, medical expen- experience with dying to be a sample was very successful. Unweighted we r e conducted six months later, ending in di t u re s , and health insurance; to document revealed. . . I have interviewed response rates for the Baseline Surv e y mid-1997, attaining an impressive comple- major changes in health care delivery, people of all ages from 22 years reached 90.7 percent, combining all types of tion rate of 92 percent. Data from this study health insurance and the cost of health care; of age up to people in their 90s. q u e s t i o n n a i res administered. Even better will be used to improve the way policymakers, and to analyze health care with respect to Each one's story and experi- were the rates for the First Follow-up Survey healthcare providers, and the public deal these changes. ence has touched my life. . . (91.4 percent) and the Mental Health Intervi e w with the terminally ill.

34 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 35 I have been gr eatly honored to hospitals at the bottom end of the curve, experiences, and focused special attention on Judith Kasper of Johns Hopkins University’s work with these individuals.” which, it appears, need to devote more households that contain a family member School of Public Health. This study involves attention and resources towards improving with a chronic disease (especially c a n c e r ) . a national panel survey that will examine U.S. News & World Report’ s 19 9 7 the quality of care. During the analytic phase, NORC will develop access to health care and insurance prob l e m s Survey on Best Hospitals. From attitude and experience thermometers, and of families in the United States. The data s u rvey data and secondary In our estimation, these findings can be of we will also construct a typology of American will provide important information about analyses of data from the significance to the health care community. If it attitudes using factor analysis. The do m a i n s the effects of changes in the health care American Hospital Association is true that there is a set of hospitals excelling identified by factor analysis will form the delivery system on families. The first-year and the Health Care Financing in the provision of high-quality care, it is theme lines of the stories written for U.S. News data collection was conducted in person Administration, NORC creates the important to delineate what these hospitals & Wor l d Report. We hope that these data will in the fall of 1995; follow-up interviews Index of Hospital Quality (IHQ). are doing. What set of characteristics do these form the baseline benchmarks for a series of by telephone were conducted in 1996; Drawing on data designed to very top hospitals have in common? The IHQ annual surveys. the third-year interviews took place late re p resent stru c t u re, process, and scores and the patterns evinced by the array in 1997 and will document changes in outcomes, the IHQ re p resents a of hospitals across the scores suggest that cer- Top HMOs. Using data provided by the coverage, access, and income. Early in summation of a hospital's perfo rm a n c e tain combinations of structural characteristics, National Committee for Quality Assurance 1997, the Kaiser Foundation highlighted in delivering high-quality care. The p rocedural choices, and outcomes work (NCQA), NORC will develop a method for initial results from the first two years results of the 1997 IHQ calculations together to lay a solid foundation for the ranking the quality-of-care performance of in national press conferences and appeared in the July 28, 1997 issue of delivery of high-quality care. Policymakers the majority of the nation's health care plans. news releases. U.S. News & World Report. can examine these patterns and combinations In 1996, NCQA provided only five data of characteristics as they attempt to unite By taking the longitudinal perspective– While we believe such information elements per plan. With these data, we high-quality care with cost containment and examining the health access and is extremely useful in educating developed a Preventive Care Index for scoring equal access to care. insurance problems and experiences consumers faced with hard choices HMO perf o rmance on their de m o n s t r a t e d of sample members over the course about where to receive medical care for The methodological underpinnings of the ability to provide prev e n t i v e care services to of several years–the study hopes to serious medical problems, care should IHQ are more fully described in an article their members. In 1997, we received data a d d ress these issues in gre a t e r be taken in interpreting the score s . published in the journal Inquiry. that covered a wider array of services and depth than would be possible with Indeed, IHQ scores can perhaps be most utilization patterns at each health plan. With Americans’ Report Card on Health. The a cross-sectional survey. The lon- valuable in delineating the tertiary-level these data, NORC constructed a scoring results of this RDD survey of the general gitudinal, household-based design hospitals that are at the very top of their mechanism that took into account HMO population appeared as the cover story in the is especially appropriate given craft. The IHQs are especially good performance across a much broader scope of March 9, 1998 edition of U.S. News & World that the health care pro b l e m s at gross distinctions at the margins: one quality indicators than just preventive care. Report, and then in scholarly publications. people face vary with changing interpretation of the shape of the curve of The results of last year's study were Respondents were asked about their attitudes life circumstances, and the transformed IHQ scores suggests that there published in the October 9, 1997 edition of t o w a rds managed c a re, as well as their perceptions they develop about are a few extremely good hospitals, an over- U.S. News & World Report. attitudes about the health care system in the health care system are whelming number of hospitals clustere d general and their perspectives about the rate S u rvey of Family Health Experiences. The influenced by family experi- together in the middle of the curve that are and scope of change in the health care p roject is funded by the Kaiser Family ence at least as much as by p roviding at least competent care, and a few system. Data were also collected about recent Foundation; the Principal Investigator (PI) is individual experience.

36 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 37 Statistics and Methodology Division

Su r vey of End-of-Life Practices. Analyses of the results continue, but prel i m i n a r y People are part of every study we conduct. produced by the new sample and suggest Sponsored by the Greenwald analyses show that 18 percent of the doctors But people aren’t perfect; they forget details, methodological fine-tuning as necessary. Foundation with additional surveyed said they had been asked by a or they aren ’ t forthcoming, or they don’t meet The data obtained through the production funding from the Wa l l a c e patient for a prescription to end life; 11 perce n t the requirements of the sample. That’s why test will support the team's further research Alexander Gerbode Foundation, had been asked for a lethal dose of medication. we’re always working on ways to improve into sample rotation, seasonal adjustment, this is a national survey of In addition, 3.2 percent of the physicians have sampling and methodology. At NORC, we’re benchmarking, and variance estimation. In physicians' attitudes and behavior written a prescription for a patient to use with developing and researching procedures to addition, NORC will continue to help c o n c e rning physician-assisted the intention of ending life, and 4.6 percent ensure the accuracy of surveys. Illinois develop estimators for smaller suicide and voluntary active have given a patient a lethal injection. Slightly geographies than those required through The Current Employment Statistics (CES). euthanasia, which began in 1995 over 35 percent of the responding physicians the CES program. NORC will also extend This program of monthly estimates of employ- and will conclude this year. The would write lethal prescriptions if it were the re s e a rch using unemployment me n t and production statistics are among the study has two major goals: (1) legal in contrast to almost 10 percent who insurance databases as auxiliary data in c o u n t ry's leading economic indicators. to estimate prevalence rates of would actually administer a lethal injection if CES estimation. Produced through a cooperative agreement physician-assisted suicide and vol- that were legal. between the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) The NLSY79 16 Recall Experiment. Th i s untary active euthanasia in a nation- Assessing the Effect of Stress and Vi o l e n c e and the states, the CES survey of business experiment was conducted as part of al probability sample of physicians, on Physicians’ Practices and Their Personal establishments has experienced some dis- Round 16 of the National Longitudinal and (2) to describe the characteristics and Home Lifestyles. The purpose of this turbing revisions in the estimates in the last Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79). The of physicians and patients involved in project, conducted for the American Medical few years. An independent panel of experts NLSY79 survey was originally fielded acts of physician-assisted dying. Association, is to develop a questionnaire to f rom the American Statistical Association with a sample of persons who were To guarantee the anonymity of res- assess the effects of stress and violence on recommended a number of changes to the 14 to 21 years old at that time. Throu g h pondents, the study was designed as a physicians' practices, personal lives, and decades-old program to bring it up to current the first 15 rounds of data collection, s e l f - a d m i n i s t e red mail surv e y. After home lives. This is a developmental study that statistical standards. NORC, as a subcontractor i n t e rviews were conducted every completing a series of three mailings, and may lead to a national survey of physicians to the state of Illinois, is part of BLS’s team year and the questions generally two telephone prompts, NORC achieved and their experiences with family violence. working to implement these changes. The covered the period since the last a completion rate of 1,902 out of 3,021 or The study consists of six tasks: (1) recruiting team is designing a probability sample, a interview. The questions concern a 62.8 percent. NORC developed weights a panel of mental health professionals, (2) method for incorporating new business range of topics, including labor to account for the differences in selection conducting a literature review relevant to establishments more quickly, and improved fo r ce and educational experiences, probabilities from stratum to stratum, and occupational stress, family violence, and estimation processes. health and disability, marital status, the final weights also included adjustments physician pathology, (3) developing a draft income, and program parti c i p a t i o n . NORC has concluded much of the prel i m i n a r y for (1) differences in self-reported specialty questionnaire, (4) conducting a focus group, With Round 17, the survey became research, and BLS has selected a new proba- to selected specialty, (2) nonresponse, and (5) piloting the questionnaire to a national biennial, doubling the length of bility sample and is recruiting the sample in (3) differences in age and gender between sample of physicians, and (6) preparing a final the period covered by many of the wholesale trade industry. This new sample the completed questionnaires and the popu- report and developing the final questionnaire. the questions. The Round 16 will be maintained in parallel with the existing lation of physicians. experiment tested the effects sample for a period of time as a production of this change in the data test. NORC will help monitor the estimates collection schedule.

38 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 39 The analysis examined several most of the respondents. It is easy for respon- will remain in the study (children “age out” after the child was vaccinated (encoding). In labor force and re c i p i e n c y dents to remember their jobs if they have at 18). The sample will also fill an experi- these studies parents either had to name all variables—the number of jobs not changed jobs in many years; it is far more mental design in which selected guardian/ the vaccinations their child received (recall) the respondents reported, the difficult for them to remember their jobs if child combinations are randomly assigned to or give a yes/no response when the vaccine number of gaps between jobs, they change jobs frequently. an experimental group, a control group, or an names were read to them (recognition). A and whether they re p o rt e d administrative follow-up group (which is to comparison between recall and rec o g n i t i o n Sample Design For a Statistically Va l i d re c e i vi n g unemployment, food be evaluated only for a federally-required performance indicates whether encoding Evaluation of Accuracy and Completeness of stamps, or AFDC payments. The assessment of cost factors related to the problems or retrieval failure may account an Establishment's OSHA Mandated Employer two-year recall period had little guardianship program). for parents' difficulty in reporting on their Records. This project reviews previous pilot discernible effect on means and child's vaccinations. Two studies con- work evaluating the accuracy of OSHA record R e s e a rch on Response Errors in Surv e y proportions for the sample as a ducted at a pediatric clinic in the Chicago keeping and will recommend a statistically Questions of Children's Immunization. whole. There was some decrease area tested different methods of asking valid and cost-effective evaluation scheme Sponsored by the National Center for Health in the number of jobs res p o n d e n t s parents questions about immunizations and sampling strategy to be carried out by Statistics, several surveys were conducted to rep o r ted for the most recent year, but (the memory-aid and proxy measures OSHA field staff in the course of their regular monitor pro g ress toward meeting the none of the other analyses showed studies). In the memory-aid st u d y , some cycle of audits. President's goal of increasing the proportion much overall impact of the two-year respondents viewed a show card listing of children who have received all their rec o m - recall period. The specifications for the sampling of estab- the vaccines or filled out a medical me n d e d vaccinations. Unfortunately, parents lishments to be audited and for sampling h i s t o ry calendar before answering However, a closer examination of the have difficulty recalling the details of their employee records within establishments is to the survey questions. In the proxy results found substantial errors in the children's vaccination history and may be be based on a series of power analyses and m e a s u res study, respondents were reports covering the two-year period. embarrassed to admit that a child has not frame list specifications provided by the asked indirect questions about The two-year period covered by the received all of the right shots. The project client. A cost benefit analysis evaluating alter- events that may be related to the Round 16 interviews included the one- sought to pinpoint the sources of error in par- native solutions at each stage of the sampling child's vaccination status (doctor's year period the respondent had already ents' reports about their children's vaccina - plan will also be provided. visits) and were given either a self-or reported in Round 15. The Round 16 tions and to explore methods for improv i n g in t e rv i e w e r- a d m i n i s t e r ed question- reports sometimes failed to reproduce Sampling for an Evaluation of the Illinois the accuracy of those reports. na i re . In all the studies, the survey the information the respondent had G u a rdianship Waiver Demonstration. This NORC staff designed and conducted a series data were matched to vaccination provided in the earlier interview. The project is developing and implementing a of laboratory and field experiments to exam- records to assess the accuracy of discrepancies in reports concerning this sampling plan to provide a sample of children ine the cognitive processes associated with the parents' reports. overlapping period were especially marked and guardians for the evaluation of a new p a rents' answering survey questions on among respondents who had complicated subsidized guardianship program in the state The results indicated that many immunization. job and recipiency histories. On the average, of Illinois. Respondents are selected randomly parents are unclear about which such respondents reported fewer jobs and within strata defined by geographic location NORC began by conducting cognitive vaccinations their childre n less recipiency in their Round 16 interview (r elative care or foster care), with probability of i n t e rviews with a convenience sample of 24 received, even when questioned than they had in Round 15. The limited over- selection adjusted by the reciprocal of the age parents. Two studies conducted at a pediatric immediately after leaving the all impact of the two-year recall period thus of the eldest child to limit the selection of older clinic in Oakland, CA, examined the infor- doctor's office. Parents' accuracy appears to reflect the stable circumstances of children and maximize the time the children mation parents had encoded immediately in reporting is directly related

40 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 41 to the number of vaccines the Comparative Study of Cognitive Laboratory interview session was coded by both the approaches to the study of travel behavior, child received. Reporting accu- I n t e rviewing Te c h n i q u e s . The National interviewer and another trained observer, it (2) discusses the limitations of cros s - s e c t i o n a l ra c y on the recognition test Center for Health Statistics is sponsoring this will be possible to test whether interviewers and panel data, (3) identifies situations was no better than for recall, study to examine the reliability of results from within an organization agree on their findings. where panel data are preferable, and (4) which suggests that pare n t s cognitive interviews conducted by different p rovides guidelines for designing and Task Orders for the Department of have difficulty re p o rting not interviewers and at different organizations. maintaining a panel survey. The report Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n . NORC has a task order to because of retrieval difficulties NORC conducted a set of cognitive interviews contains a number of recommendations prepare two reports, one on Reducing Non- but because they never encoded on a questionnaire already tested by NCHS for conducting and using panel designs in response in Travel Surveys and the other a the information. The memory-aid cognitive interviewers. Four NORC interview- travel surveys. Primer for Panel Surve y s in the transporta t i o n and proxy measures studies ers each completed ten taped interviews with field. NORC staff worked with a review panel Longitudinal Study of American Youth. showed that the use of calendars, paid volunteers. During the interviews, they comprised of Project Officers from the Federal Sponsored by the Chicago Academy of show cards, and different types of recorded problems by checking a “problem” Highway Administration, Metro p o l i t a n Sciences, the objective of the project questions and survey administration box and recording notes on unfamiliar termi- Planning Officers in Chicago and Was h i n g t o n , was to perfo r m an item response theoret i c did not significantly improve report- nology, the logic of the questions, response and researchers and experts in the trans- (IRT) analysis of achievement data from ing. However, parents who know categories, etc. portation survey research field. the Longitudinal Study of American m o re about vaccines do seem to To code the interviews, each interv i e w e r Youth (LSAY) to obtain scale score report more accurately. Our findings Reducing Nonresponse in Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n paired up with another interviewer. The inter- estimates of science and mathematics suggest that when parents have diffi- Surveys was written for designers, analysts, viewers reviewed their own ten interviews attainment. The achievement data culty rep o r ting their child's vaccination and sponsors of household travel surveys, and the ten completed by their partner. For consisted of item responses fro m history there is little that can be done and others who collect, report on, or interpret both their own and their partner's, they repeated administrations of a multiple- to help them remember the informa t i o n . travel survey data. This report provides a set reviewed five interviews by consulting only form assessment instrument to two The lack of improvement in reporting of guidelines for measuring and reporting the notes taken on the questionnaires and the nationally representative samples of accuracy even with self-administered nonresponse in household travel surveys and other five by listening to the tapes and not middle and high school students. versions of the questionnaire suggests for reducing the level and impact of nonres- viewing the notes. The second interviewer Previous IRT analyses of the data that parents are not manipulating their ponse. The report first focuses on measuring also coded the problems that arose during the were conducted at a time when reports simply to hide embarrassment and reporting nonresponse, and then moves same interviews by coding the same five methods for obtaining comparable f rom an interv i e w e r. Rather, they are on to describe the potential consequences of interviews from notes only and the other five estimates of ability across test simply guessing when they do not know nonresponse in household travel surveys and interviews from tapes only. forms and repeated administra- the answers. The finding that more knowl- recommend methods for reducing the level tions were not completely edgeable parents reported more accurately The study’s design allows for testing of both of nonresponse. Finally, the report describes understood, even by specialists suggests that the key to collecting better inter-organization and inter-coder reliability. statistical methods for reducing the impact of in the field. Since that time, the data on the vaccination status of children is Since the same questionnaire has been cogni- nonresponse on survey estimates. issue has received considerable educating parents about vaccines. tively tested by both NCHS and NORC, it will The Primer for Panel Surveys introduces the attention in the literature, and be possible to examine whether interviewers use of panel designs in surveys of travel new methods for equating test trained by different organizations arrive at behavior. The report (1) highlights the differ- forms across multiple groups the same findings. Similarly, since the same ences between cross-sectional and panel have emerged. This pro j e c t

42 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 43 Substance Abuse, Mental Health, and Disability Studies Division

applied those methods to the automate many of the sample selection Why do some people become easily addicted For the 1996 follow-up, NORC located and data from the LSAY survey. and maintenance functions, enabling NORC to alcohol and drugs, and others don’t? What interviewed nearly 700 women who were to maintain the highest quality sampling role does mental health play in how an interviewed in the 1991 survey, along with A multiple-group IRT model for standards with greater efficiency. individual makes life choices? The issues over 500 of their spouses and partners. equating nonequivalent groups of substance abuse and mental health (Bock and Zimowski, 1997) was A working prototype of the system was devel- Some important findings from this study pr ofoundly affect society. NORC is conducting fit to the item response data oped with the basic functions for selecting include: many studies in this area that will eventually using the BILOG-MG program of a sample of housing units from a list frame of help determine public policy and how tax Sexual abuse during childhood raises Zimowski, Muraki, Mislevy, and addresses. We are beginning to migrate the dollars are spent. the risk for alcohol dependency in adult Bock (1996). The proc e d u r e places data to a larger, more powerful relational women. Of women with alcohol depen- the items from all forms on a com- database system that can handle the complete National Study of Health and Life Experiences dency, 24 percent experienced abuse mon scale by jointly estimating set of our sampling frames. of Wo m e n . In a recent USA Today article, in their childhood. the item parameters and the latent Mary Dufour, deputy director of the National ability distributions of the non- Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Women who play multiple roles such equivalent groups, which, in this (NIAAA), called this, “A landmark study— as wife, mother, and worker are less case, correspond to the groups of the best and only one of its kind.” This study likely to have drinking problems. students completing each form within is being conducted for the University of After five years, 44 percent of each year and cohort of the survey. North Dakota, for PIs Sharon and Richard women with drinking pro b l e m s The item parameter estimates Wilsnack, under a grant from the NIAAA. who remain in marriages continue obtained in that calibration were used Because information is scarce about the to have alcohol dependency prob- to produce scale score estimates patterns, antecedents, and consequences of lems, while of those who get of individual achievement for all drinking among women in the general popu- divorced only 31 percent continue measurement periods in the survey. The lation, this four-wave study, begun in 1981, is to have alcohol problems. scores will be added to the LSAY public- investigating alcohol use and alcohol- linked Women who are alcohol depen- use database. behaviors, focusing on alcohol consumption, dent during their early adult drinking context, sexual behavior, and ANSPACK. NORC staff spent a great years are likely to “mature out” problems related to alcohol consumption and deal of time this year developing a working of this dependency. While 29 alcohol dependency among women. NORC prototype of NORCSUITE Sampling Tools, percent of 21 to 34 year old has now conducted three follow-ups with which are a combination of a relational women report having had six these women or subsamples of them in order database and software tools to select and or more drinks in a single day to describe patterns and predictors of maintain NORC's sampling frames and during the past year, the num- changes in women's drinking and drinking project samples. Initially designed for area ber falls to only 14 percent for problems over time; to clarify and extend p robability samples, particularly NORC's those 54 to 60 years old. important findings from the baseline survey; exclusive national frame, the system will and to gain information and experience eventually be able to handle most types useful for future longitudinal follow-ups. of samples that NORC manages. The tools

44 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 45 Services Research Outcomes theft or larceny, breaking and entering, monographs since 1995, with another hand- National Archive and Analytic Center (NAAC) Study (SROS). SROS is the driving under the influence (DUI), driving ful in process and scheduled for publication for Alcohol, Drug, and Mental Health Data. first nationally representative while intoxicated (DWI), causing public by the end of the contract. NORC is also This project is an indefinite-quantity (task study of individuals discharged disorder, engaging in prostitution or pro- p roducing and distributing the NHSDA order) contract with SAMHSA, which to from drug treatment. Data col- curement, stealing a vehicle, or committing Public Use Files (approximately 100 copies date has produced six task orders: (1) lection for this Substance Abuse fraud or forgery. Clients discharged when are requested each year), and we prod u c e General Management and Task Ord e r and Mental Health Serv i c e s they were less than 18 years old were again qu i c k - t u rn a ro u n d data analyses, specialized Pr eparation; (2) Quick Turn a r ound Studies; Administration (SAMHSA) study the exception. files, and related data services for SAMHSA, (3) Statistical Sourcebook Preparation; (4) was completed in February 1995 which number about 50 discrete projects Substance Abuse and Mental Health After treatment there were significant and the final data released for per year. Data Archive: Initial Development; (5) de c r eases in homelessness, receipt of physical analysis in June. Based on a five- Analytic Papers; and (6) Substance abuse, drug injection, and suicide attempts. Analytic monographs completed during 1997 year follow-up of 3,000 discharges Abuse and Mental Health Data Archive: include: from a national probability sample The death rate of clients discharged from Implementation. of 99 treatment facilities, SROS tr eatment was more than seven times higher The Prevalence and Correlates of Trea t m e n t Task Orders 4 and 6 refer to an activity results covered 1,799 interviewed than expected given the age, sex, and race for Drug Problems (Gerstein, Foote, and to be housed at the Interu n i v e r s i t y respondents and 273 known dece- distribution of the client group. The death Ghadialy) (complete citations for these C o n s o rtium for Political and Social dents from the sample. NORC analysis rate was particularly high for white females, monographs are included in the bibliography Research (ICPSR), with a major point of the data was completed in August who died at 18 times the rate of their coun- at the end of this Annual Report) of access through the World Wide 1997, and some of the principal con- terparts in the general population. Substance Abuse Among Women in the Web at http://www.icpsr.umich.edu. clusions include: Length-of-stay in treatment was a consistent United States (Su, Larison, Ghadialy, The most important data sets Illicit drug and alcohol use went predictor of alcohol and illicit drug use Johnson, and Rohde) pertaining to substance abuse and after treatment. Longer treatment stays down in the five years after the treat- Drug Use in the Workplace (Hoffmann, mental health, from national data c o rrelated with the lower likelihood of ment episode, compared to the five Larison, and Brittingham) collections such as NHSDA, TEDS, years before. post-treatment use. and the Drug Abuse Wa rn i n g Reports on Smoking in a National Survey: Re p o r ts on Drug Use from the 1994-96 National Network, will be made available An exception to these decreases was Self and Proxy Reports in Self- and Household Survey on Drug Abuse. We are now f rom ICPSR's currently more found for clients who were under age I n t e rv i e w e r- A d m i n i s t e red Questionnaire s entering the fourth and final year of this study restricted archive (for consortium 18 at the time of discharge from treat- (Tourangeau, Brittingham, and Kay) members) as well as being newly ment. Among those under age 18, there sponsored by SAMHSA’s Office of Applied NORC analytic projects currently underway prepared by NORC for dissemi- were increases in alcohol use and crack Studies. This study, including the completed using the NHSDA include: drug use among nation as public use files. use. However, these same clients showed contract for the same tasks with the 1992-93 Hispanics; substance abuse and other prob- no increases in marijuana, cocaine, heroi n , (and earlier) surveys, has been a central one Task Order 5 commissions seven lem behavior among adolescents; adolescent or any other illicit drug use. for the division. Virtually every staff member analytical papers to be devel- ci g a r ette use; drinking and driving behaviors; has been involved in both the all-hands effort oped by NORC with assistance Criminal activity declined after the index and drug use and unemployment. to produce the annual Main Findings report on several of the papers from t reatment episode. Overall, there were and in one or more of the various small th r ee subcontractors: Columbia b e f o re/after decreases in selling dru g s , groups that have authored seven analytical University (Denise Kandel),

46 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 47 Alcohol Research Gr oup (Laura probability survey data. This paper will be Synthesis of drug abuse treatment effe c t i v e n e s s room visits, mortality rates, arrests for Schmidt), and the Lewin Grou p based on preliminary work with NHSDA and research. Large cross-site studies of drug cocaine trafficking and possession. These (Henrick Harwo o d ) . Provisional other data sets involving drug-using behavior, abuse treatment effectiveness have been analyses could also explore the relationship plans for these papers are as including published results from CALDATA conducted during the 1990s by NIDA, of health, welfare, and criminal justice follows: and the Study of Vulnerability to Drug Abuse SAMHSA, and other agencies, including system outlays on drug-related problems to Among High-Risk Youth. NTIES, SROS, the Drug Abuse Treatment early cohort drug experience, periods Explaining trends in adolescent Outcomes Study, Adolescent Drug Abuse of market-led “outbreaks,” and related drug use. To the extent permitted Substance abuse and mental health service Treatment Outcomes Study, and CALDATA. periodic phenomena such as cyclical by available data, this paper will providers: organization of the service delivery These studies comprise re t rospective and variations in unemployment rates. estimate the principal re a s o n s system and implication for serv i c e s . T h i s p rospective designs, and have varying behind changes in national preva- paper will provide the first comprehensive Estimation of hard- c o r e drug use. Al t h o u g h sampling approaches, but all share substantial lence rates of adolescent drug use, comparison of data on the provider networks the concept of “hard- c o r e use” originates commonalities in their domains of coverage particularly the use of marijuana, that offer substance abuse and mental health outside the epidemiologic tradition of and instrumentation strategies. This paper cocaine, inhalants, hallucinogens, services in the United States. This analysis scientific study of drug use, it has clear will attempt to draw the data from all of these alcohol, and tobacco. The focus of will explore duplication, overlap, and con- correlates with the definition of drug studies together for a common assessment the analysis will be changes during sistency between the NDATUS/NFR/UFDS, dependence as a chronic, re l a p s i n g of results. the past 25 years—the period cov- IMHO, and AHA databases. All three surveys di s o rd e r . Since hard- c o r e use comprises e red by national and regional include data on substance abuse and mental Lagged trend analysis of drug incidence, a relatively small fraction of overall epidemiologic sample data such as health units within general and psychiatric p revalence, and problems: predicting the dr ug prevalence and involves jeopardy the NHSDA, Monitoring the Future, hospitals as well as certain federal institutions, fu t u r e burden of “drug epidemics.” This paper levels that make the typical household National Alcohol Survey, Youth Risk and both NDATUS and IMHO overlap some- will estimate lagged relationships between or conventional institutional frame Behavior Surv e y, NLSY79, NELS:88, what on community-based providers. The trends in drug incidence and prevalence as relatively inefficient at achieving full and more localized studies by principal analysis will define the extent of overlap measured in NHSDA, and drug problems coverage of the target population, it investigators such as D. Kandel, S. Su, nationally and regionally in the provider data- as measured in NHSDA, DAWN, TEDS, is more difficult to estimate the C. Perry, B. Flay, J. Brook, R. Donovan, bases, taking advantage of particular local NDATUS, and criminal justice data series level of this type of use than more M. Wolfgang, R. Clayton, and others. studies of service delivery system diffe re n t i a t i o n such as the FBI's UCR, the BJS Survey of common “casual” and total use and integration in the provision of mental Inmates, and the NIJ's DUF. Each of these levels, and the estimates are subject H i e r a rchical Linear Modeling (HLM). health and substance abuse services. National series extends back a minimum of 15 years to greater margins of error. In pre- HLM comprises a family of statistical data on regional variations in the prevalence and provides time series of trends in the vious research, techniques such methods for the analysis of data that of substance abuse and mental syndromes relative as well as absolute rates for different as ratio estimation and synthetic reflect distinctive levels of aggregation, and disorders, such as the NHSDA and substances. With appropriate modeling of c o h o rt estimation have been clustering of cases (which are generally a National Comorbidity Survey, will also be time lags and causal relationships, we might employed. The plan for this p roduct of sample efficiency considera- used to consider questions of the relative therefore be able to estimate time-contin- paper is to replicate earlier tions), and presumptively different causal coverage of dually diagnosed problems by gent, cohort-specific relations between major methods using the most recent processes, such as those that occur at the system providers. trends in drug use and consequences, for NHSDA and other data series, neighborhood, family, and individual level. example, in cocaine incidence, heavy cocaine and to explore a variety of HLM seems especially suitable for the analysis use, cocaine-related hospital emerg e n c y alternative statistical methods of multi-level causal models using multi-stage

48 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 49 that may aid in correcting marijuana), and the final data CD-ROM the program's termination on former rec i p i e n t s . collected in 1990. In this second wave of the estimates of hard-core use for including the electronic codebook. The results As part of this effort the state of Washington s t u d y, NORC also collected data from u n d e rcoverage and underre- of this study were released in preliminary asked NORC to collect data from 400 respon- a sample of the adolescents' mothers. With a p o rting, and to improve the form by the Secretary of DHHS and the White dents fitting this description, residing in King response rate goal of 85 percent, NORC precision of estimates such that House drug policy director in 1996, and addi- County, Washington. Round 1, the baseline achieved a response rate of 92 percent. time trends in hard - c o re use tional summary information was released at a survey, collected data during the month of A Prospective Study of the Mental Health might be more readily discrimi- press conference in September 1997. December 1996, from respondents currently of Black Women (Woodlawn Mothers). nated. The analysis will focus on receiving SSI on the current state of their Pr ocess Evaluation of Title I of the 1994 Crime An extension of a 30-year study, this the adult population and on major addiction, their medical needs, where they Act (Community Oriented Policing Servi c e s subcontract with the Johns Hopkins demographic subgroups. were living, and the overall circumstances of [C O P S ] ) . This study is being conducted under University, PI Margaret Ensminger, is their lives. Round 2 collected data during the Substance abuse and health insur- a subcontract with the Urban Institute with PI sponsored by the National Institute of months of June and July 1997. The Round 2 ance, health status, and health care Jeffrey Roth and is funded by a grant from the Health/National In s t i t u t e of Mental Health data collection focused on how the loss of use. The purpose of this paper is to National Institute of Justice. This pro j e c t Of fice of Research on Minority Health benefits has impacted the former recipients— better determine the status of drug involves a multi-wave national telephone sur- and Office of Research on Women's for example, what kind of medical coverage users and nonusers in the general vey of police administrators (chiefs or their Health. From 1965-68, NORC conducted do they have now? Have they reapplied to population with respect to health sta- designees)—sample lists supplied by the the Woo d l a w n Mental Health Study, a SSI? Have they been picked up by other tus, health care utilization, and public client—who either receive COPS funding or longitudinal study of first graders agencies? Are they currently without any and private health plan coverage. who chose not to apply for it. The non- enrolled in elementary schools in an benefits? Are they able to function? The This analysis should help illuminate grantees are being asked why they did not i n n e r- c i t y, predominantly African- sponsor has tentative plans to extend the issues of financial access to treatment apply; the grantees assess their pro g re s s American Chicago neighborh o o d . data collection to include two more rounds. for substance abuse, mental health, t o w a rd the goals they established earlier In-person interviews were conducted NORC is currently conducting Round 3 of and physical health problems. The when they were seeking COPS funding. with mothers or mother surrogates this study. NHSDA dataset will be the touchstone of the children. In order to identify Follow-Up of Drug-Addicted and Alcoholic of the analysis, and will be compared D rug Use and Problem Behaviors in the epidemiology of mental disor- (DA&A) Supplemental Security Income (SSI) with other data that may be made acces- Minority Yo u t h . Conducted for PI Judith ders among the survey group, Recipients After Program Ter mination (Seattle sible, including federal data collection Brook at Mt. Sinai Medical Center, this was data from these interviews were S t u d y ) . This one-year, two-wave study is such as the National Health Interview the second wave of a longitudinal study. The combined with information from being performed for the Washington State S u rvey and private-sector databases project assesses stages of involvement with teachers, who rated children on Division of Alcohol and Substance Abuse, being used for actuarial, research, and drug use in an inner-city sample, and exam- cl a s s r oom adaptation; from mental Department of Social and Health Services, managed care development purposes. ines the interrelationships of acculturation, health professionals' observ a- with funding from the Center for Substance family, personality, peers, and drug context tions of the children; and from National Treatment Improvement Evaluation Abuse Treatment (CSAT). The SSI/SSDI domains. Data were collected for the second self-ratings by the childre n . Study (NTIES). In February, NORC deliv- programs that provided benefits to individuals time from a sample of African-American and Then, from 1992-93, NORC ered to the Center for Substance Abuse because they were suffering from drug addic- P u e rto Rican adolescents who attended conducted a follow-up study, Treatment (CSAT) the NTIES main final rep o rt , tion or alcoholism as a disabling condition schools primarily in the East Harlem area of re i n t e rviewing the original five more specialized reports (on women, ended on December 31, 1996. CSAT orga n i z e d New York City when the data were first respondents, who were no w adolescents and young adults, cocaine, and a multi-state study to examine the effects of

50 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 51 NORCResearch Centers

approximately 30 years old. In siblings, and parents until the probands, who The Research Centers at NORC represent an an active demographic training program of this current study, NORC is were 11 years old initially, reach their late integral part of NORC’s focus on efforts to pr e-doctoral and post-doctoral fellows while i n t e rviewing a subsample of teens. The second is a four-year grant, Drug integrate three elements of survey research: actively disseminating the resulting res e a rc h mothers (biological and foster) Injectors' Risk Networks and HIV Transmi- rigorous studies that yield valid and valuable through expansion of the PRC home page of the original Woodlawn Mental ssion, which is based on a pilot study done data; ongoing testing and development of (http://www.spc.uchicago.edu/prc) and the Health Study sample. The ques- at NORC from 1995-96 using innovative com- state-of-the-art survey methodology in sam- publication of Working Papers, mono- tions focus on family background binations of ethnographic and survey methods pling, collection, and analysis; and supporti n g graphs, journal articles, and books. and history—including receipt of to assess a Resource Access theory of the and training fresh minds capable of distin- The Committee on Demographic Training w e l f a re assistance, household distribution of transmitting or receiving the guished careers in social science research (CDT) has completed its 13th year of composition, work, income, and AIDS virus through needle sharing or unpro- and methodology regardless of their core dis- training students to become future lead- health—and on intergenerational tected sex. In addition, we received a NIDA cipline. To that end, NORC houses four ers in the field of demography. We relationships and spirituality. grant for three years to study the Community R e s e a rch Centers with diff e rent styles, received T32 grants in 1997 from the Interviews are in-person, except for and Family Context of Adolescent Drug Use, missions, and degrees of involvement in the National Institute of Child Health and respondents outside the Chicago which will enable us to extend our analyses of day-to-day performance of survey research Human Development (NICHD) and the metropolitan area, who are inter- NHSDA and NELS:88 data to better under- projects, which share a commitment to these National Institute on Aging (NIA), each viewed by telephone. stand the effects of neighborhoods, schools, survey research goals. supporting two new fellows. and family structure on adolescent drug use Treatment Outcomes of Adolescents The newest addition to the NORC roster of and delinquency. We also received two grants As further evidence of our successful in Therapeutic Communities. This R e s e a rch Centers is the A l f red P. Sloan from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation; pursuit of the development of future study is being conducted for PI Nancy Center on Parents, Children, & Work, which one for a study of Drug Use Among U.S. leaders for demography, six of our fif- Jainchill at the National Development focuses on the nature of families and the Workers, Workplace Safety, and Drug Testing teen pre-doctoral trainees are new to and Research Institute, Inc., and is sup- influences and pressures that affect them. P o l i c i e s , and a second for a study of demographic training. Their funding ported by a grant from the National The Sloan Center’s work is presented at the D e t e rminants of Public Support for Dru g includes two federal training grants, Institute on Drug Abuse. NORC will beginning of this Annual Report. Treatment Spending: 1972-1996. each of which supports four pre- follow approximately 800 adolescents The Population Research Center (PRC) doctoral trainees; Hewlett Foundation t reated since 1990 in New Jersey, serves the research and training needs of the funding of students from developing Pennsylvania, and Florida to determine University of Chicago faculty who have countries, providing a final year of their post-treatment experience and interests in the field of demography. The support for five traineeships; and behavior. PRC supports population re s e a rch by Mellon Foundation funding for NORC received two grants that were integrating and coordinating re s e a rch, training and travel that supports favorably reviewed in mid-1996 but not funding, and training, and by disseminating two trainees conducting field awarded by the National Institute on Drug and administrating grant and pro g r a m res e a r ch in developing countries. Abuse until June 1997. One is a five-year opportunities. We continue to replenish our The PRC actively disseminates renewal of the Vulnerability to Drug Abuse portfolio of support from federal agencies re s e a rch results through the in High-Risk Youth Study, which will enable and private foundations, especially with NIH Demography Workshop, now us to extend this study of 600 families and R03 or “small” grants that support smaller beginning its 14th year. The nearly 2,000 index children (probands), projects of shorter duration. We also maintain

52 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 53 Workshop, co-sponsored by the Another ongoing NSF project is Data Markets, Also funded by NICHD is Welfare Re f o r m to the United States. Drs. Leonid and Natalia Center on Demography and which focuses on modeling incentives for data and the Wellbeing of Children . This project, Gavrilov, internationally recognized scien- Economics of Aging (profiled production to facilitate identification and esti- funded in part by a Ford Foundation grant, is tists from Moscow State University, will be below), brings a variety of mation of population parameters of economic conducting an investigation in Chicago, conducting their re s e a rch on aging in outside speakers to its weekly interest. The research uses a labor-economic Boston, and Baltimore to assess the effects of Chicago for the next year. They are best seminar, presenting papers from a p p roach to data production, developing welfare reform on the well-being of low- known for “The Biology of Life Span: A Re s e a r ch Associates, post-doctoral wage discrimination schemes that may be income families and to follow them over the Quantitative Approach,” and their work fellows, and graduate students used on the sample to identify population evolution of welfare reform. Using longitudi- regarding predictors of human longevity on issues related to their research parameters to be estimated. These schemes nal surveys and ethnographic studies, the and mortality based on the analysis of inquiries. Workshops have covered allow for correcting estimates for production re s e a rchers will investigate the strategies genealogical data. subjects ranging from how many biases due to poor quantity or quality of data. developed to respond to changes in employ- R e s e a rch Associates actively pursued people the earth can support, ment, school, training, residential mobility, S p o n s o red by NICHD, What Determ i n e s NIH and NSF grants, encouraged by to keeping data confidential, to and fertility. Family Size? A Study of the Very Rich is using pilot project awards providing support measures of race and ethnicity. samples of the very rich to isolate the effect on The Center on Demography and Economics for new research initiatives. Eight pilot The PRC is using the Web with ever- fertility of income from the effect of education of Aging (CoA) has completed the third year projects are expected to lead to larger increasing facility and response to or the value of time. By constructing a new of its five-year funding as an “exploratory” proposals, demonstrating the value of disseminate information about itself, data set using who's who data, the study will center devoted to increasing demography this “seed” money. Topics include the Research Associates, activities, con- learn about the social and economic factors and economics research done in Chicago on development of methods to conduct a fe r ences, and res e a r ch results. A limited affecting fertility and improve the ability of our aging populations. It provides support to cohort study of the determinants of number of PRC Working Papers are social scientists to forecast fertility changes. faculty and affiliated research associates by hospice use in elderly patients, an available on our Web site, but the com- integrating and coordinating research, data investigation of dynamic insurance Another NICHD study, Chinese Health and plete catalog of Workshop pres e n t a t i o n s archives, funding, and training. Our director, markets, and a recent project on Family Behavior will employ survey methods is available there. Linda Waite, has received an academic familial determinants of human and biomarkers in a national sample of 9,000 career leadership award that will be used to longevity and the inheritance of Once again, this year we have a large adults to examine the social construction of f u rther interd i s c i p l i n a ry re s e a rch into the human life span. variety of ongoing research. The NSF sexuality and distribution of sexually trans- de m o g r a p h y , biodemography, and economics project, Risk, Robustness and Volatility mitted diseases in China. Its objectives are: (1) Training activities are integral to of aging, as well as to improve the curri c u l u m (RRV), is building models of dynamic sto- to produce a baseline study describing the the Center on Aging. With a third in aging, to provide increased time to the direc - chastic economies in which consumer/ social organization of human sexuality in year of support from a University- to r and staff to build research partnerships, investors can make small but sophisticated China; (2) to elaborate and document a social administered NIA training grant and to establish contacts and relationships mistakes. RRV is also studying alternative c o n s t ructionist model of sexual behavior, (T32), we re c ruited two new with private foundations. It will also be used ways of integrating estimates from micro exploring the social scripts from which people post-doctoral fellows. They, along to hire a data programmer to facilitate the data sets into dynamic stochastic general understand sexual behavior, personal values, with NIA pre-doctoral fellows, use of several new longitudinal datasets. equilibrium models and justifying flexible and cultural expectations; and (3) to produce a participate in the demography estimation methods for nonlinear Markov social constructionist model of the spread of Two visiting scholar associates have become workshop held during the fall, diffusion models. sexually transmitted diseases. associated with the Center on Aging after w i n t e r, and spring quart e r s . NORC helped to facilitate their immigration The workshop serves a training

54 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 55 function but also provides Research Center on Aging. We expect to see the vitality and the reliability of birth information for for- The Sloan Study on Youth and Social Associates with an opportunity to and leadership continue to enhance the grow - eign born Asian-Americans. These data allow D e v e l o p m e n t finished its fifth year of field read papers, thereby serving the in g reputation within NORC and on campus. assessment of the implications of Asian- work. This multidisciplinary study continues Center's desire to disseminate infor- American population growth for theoretical to attract students from different disciplines A primary source of projects has been the NIA mation. Research Associates, for work on maximum longevity. in the University who are interested in from whom we currently have four ongoing example, presented papers on the studying how young people go about visua- projects. Information on Old Age Insurance The fourth is Biodemographic Study of biodemography of aging, and one li z i n g their future occupational roles, what is studying several predictions of competitive Parental Age Effects on Lifespan, an effort to guest speaker read a paper on union steps they are taking to pre p a re for insurance to assess how the private mortality use cross-generational data on European roy a l a rmy pensions and elderly living them, and how career decisions become information of consumers and their experi- and noble families. The objective is to assess arrangements. These exchanges also crystallized in adolescence. A new book, ence mortality covaries with the prices and the association between paternal and materna l p rovided an opportunity to share Images of Adolescent Work, by Charles quantities of life insurance held. The project age at conception and longevity of offspring. information about research projects, Bidwell, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, uses data from the health and retirement sur- It also will explore the relationship between review ideas from colleagues from La r ry V. Hedges, and Barbara Schneider, vey (HRS) and asset and health dynamics the father's age and offspring longevity to d i ff e rent disciplines, develop new is completed and the plan is for the among the oldest old (AHEAD) to understand support the hypotheses that offspring born to relationships and recruit new faculty. book to be published by Cambridge the relevance of information barriers to trade older fathers have higher age-specific death A complete catalog of presentations University Press. in old-age insurance that have explained rates and lower life expectancy than off- is available on the Center on Aging why the elderly, especially widows, lack old- spring born to younger fathers. Much of our research has focused on web page (http://www. s p c . u c h i c a g o . age insurance. issues in education, especially social edu/coa). The Internet has become a The Ogburn - S t o u ffer Center ( O S C ) h a s inequality, family formation, and the more important and immediate means of The second NIA project is F u n c t i o n i n g , enjoyed unprecedented success in pursuit of lo n g - t e r m consequences of schooling communicating within the demography Community and Living Arrangements of its three-fold mission: to house and support for individuals and their families. of aging community each year and is an Elders. By examining residential mobility and funded social organizational research, to pro- This has resulted in publications efficient vehicle for distributing internal changes in living arrangements as responses vide start-up support and related assistance that concern the joint effects of information. to declines in physical, cognitive, emotional, to junior faculty in the early years of their schooling and English fluency on and social functions, the research illustrates appointments, and to provide practical This year has also seen considerable men's earnings, the effects of the social processes that create or prevent research training for graduate students in the additions to our data archive of surveys of attitudes on school continuation di s a b i l i t y , developing measures of functioning, Department of Sociology. This was accom- interest to Center on Aging researchers. In beyond college, and the determi- housing characteristics, and kin availability plished through the concerted efforts of 12 addition, data archive staff have worked nants of religious participation in as well as analyzing the impact of dwelling faculty members from several departments extensively with associates pre p a r i n g young adulthood. and local-area characteristics on changes in who serve as Center Research Associates; grant proposals on aging. They have residence and living arrangements. m o re than 40 graduate student re s e a rc h The Chicago Health and Social identified data collections for re s e a rch assistants, including students from Sociology, Life Survey (CHSLS) focused on project use, developed budgets for data The third, Mortality Among Asian-American Human Development, Education, Anthrop o l o g y , a single metropolitan are a , acquisition, and consulted on numerous Elderly is determining the death rates for Public Policy, the Divinity School, and the Chicago, and included qualita- statistical and technical issues. specific elderly Asian-American populations, Business School; and several upper-level tive interviews with local how death rates differ for Asian-Americans We are quite pleased with the quality and college students also served as re s e a rc h community leaders and ser- who are U.S. born rather than foreign born, quantity of re s e a rch generated from the assistants. vice providers as well as

56 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 57 re p resentative surveys of adults transmitted infection, sexual dysfunction, n e i g h b o rhood setting, with particular ages 18-59 residing thro u g h o u t and the prevalence of circumcision among attention to violent and criminal behaviors. Cook County (including Chicago) American adult men and its consequences for Nu m e r ous other res e a r ch projects are ongoing and in each of four selected sexual practices and spread of disease. under the auspices of the OSC at NORC: neighborhood areas within the city. Ongoing project work has resulted in a number Studying Career Choice, funded by the Alfred The data promise to shed light on of presentations, publications, and student P. Sloan Foundation, Social Demography of important social problems such as theses. Fourteen graduate students worked Interpersonal Relations, funded by the the spread of sexually transmitted on CHSLS during 1996-97, along with two National Institute for Child Development, diseases, including HIV/AIDS, adult recent Ph.D. recipients from the Sociology Fo r d Foundation, and Office of AIDS Research outcomes of early sexual abuse, Department. Two dissertations are currently (NIH and Ford Foundation), and H u m a n domestic violence, and sexual dys- being written based on the data, and two Development in Chicago Neighborhoods, function. More positively, the study masters theses and a qualifying paper have Harvard University School of Public Health. also measures sexual satisfaction and al r eady been completed. A paper co-authored T h ree others are funded by the NSF: sexual health. Innovative network by Christopher Browning and Edward M o v e r-Stayer Models for the Analysis of information from the population survey Laumann titled “Sexual Contact between E v e n t - H i s t o ry Data in Social Sciences and rich textual data from the key C h i l d ren and Adults: A Life Course R e s e a rch, Secondary School Curr i c u l a r in f o r mant interviews will permit analysts Perspective” is forthcoming in A m e r i c a n R e f o rm and Postsecondary Education of the CHSLS to amplify and refine the Sociological Review. Two other papers are S u c c e s s, and I m p roving Science and findings from the National Health and currently under review: “Teenage Sex and Mathematics Learning: A School and Social Life Survey (NHSLS). Intervi e w i n g the Sexual Revolution” by Kara Joyner, C l a s s room Appro a c h . on the second and final round of the Edward Laumann, and Robert Michael; and CHSLS ended in August 1997. Response “ C i rcumcision in the U.S.: Pre v a l e n c e , rates for this difficult and sensitive study Prophylactic Effects, and Sexual Practice” by averaged 70 percent. E d w a rd Laumann, Christopher Masi, and Substantial progress was made in com- Ezra Zuckerman. pleting a book draft, consisting of 12 During the upcoming year, the focus will be empirical chapters devoted to additional on analysis of the new CHSLS data. As final analyses of the NHSLS. The book, entitled revisions of the new book based on the The Social Organization of Sexuality: Furth e r NHSLS are completed and data cleaning on Studies, will be published by the University the CHSLS comes to a close, analysis of the of Chicago Press. Substantive topics Chicago data will move into full swing. include teenage sex and the Sexual Revolution, modes of sexual expression in The P roject on Human Development in the American adult population, abort i o n , Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN) is study- adult/child sexual contact and its adult ing the influence of community, family, consequences, the epidemiology of sexually and peers on individual development in a

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62 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 63 I L Hoffmann, John P., and S. Susan Su. Ingels, Steven J. “The Design of Johnson, R.A., D.R. Gerstein, R. Johnson, Robert A., Dean R. Lauderdale, D.S., R. Fabsitz, Laumann, Edward O., John H. “ P a rental Substance Use Disord e r, a National Longitudinal Study of Ghadialy, W. Choy, and J. Gfroerer. Gerstein, and Kenneth Rasinski. J. Meyer, P. Sholinsky, V. Gagnon, Robert T. Michael, and Mediating Variables, and Ad o l e s c e n t Head Start Children.” In Making A “National Household Survey on “Recall Decay and Telescoping in lf- Ramakrishnan, and J. Goldberg. Stuart Michaels. “The Social Drug Use: A Nonrecursive Model.” Difference for Children, Families Drug Abuse: Incidence of Drug Use Reports of Alcohol and Marijuana “Familial Determinants of Intermi t t e n t Organization of Sexuality: Sexual Addiction, (in press). and Communities—Partnerships in the United States.” DHHS Pub. 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Strain Theory Assessment of Sex Johnson, R.A. and D.R.Gerstein. Study, Kindergarten Cohort: Final K Di ff e re n c e s . ” Jo u r nal of Research in “Treatment for Cocaine and Crack Laumann, Edward O. and Study Design Report.” Report to King, B.F. and R.C. Murphy. “A M Crime and Delinquency 34(1): 46- Use in the National Treatment Christopher Browning. “Sexual National Center for Education Survey to Estimate Residential Madrian, Brigitte C. and Janet Curri e . 78, 1997. Improvement Evaluation Study.” Contact Between Children and Statistics. Chicago: NORC, 1997. Solid Waste Generation.” Journal of “Health, Health Insurance and the Rockville, MD: Center for Substance Adults: Tracking the Long-Term Hoffmann, John P., S. Susan Su, and En v i r onmental Engineering, 10, 1996. Labor Market.” Prepared for the Abuse Treatment, 1997 Effects.” American Sociological Handbook of Labor Economics Alfred Pach. “Changes in Network J King, B.F., “Quota, Representative, Jobe, J. B., W.F. Pratt, R. 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64 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 65 N P S Meltzer, David. “Theoretical Issues Mulligan, Casey. “Scale Economies, Nichols, B., N. Grilley, L. Thalji, and Parish, William, Shen Chonglin Pickett, Susan A., Judith A. Cook, Schechter S., N. Schwarz, J. Tanur, in Accounting for Future Costs in the Value of Time, and the Demand R. Tourangeau. “The Prospective and Chang Chi-hsiang. “Family Bertram J. Cohler, and Mardi L. and R. Tourangeau (Eds.), Cognition Medical Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.” for Money: Longitudinal Evidence Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Support Networks in the Chinese Solomon. “Positive Parent/Adult and Survey Research. New York: In Policy Issues in Pharmaceutical from Firms.” Journal of Political Health In-Home Wave I Final Countryside.” USC Seminar Series Child Relationships: Impact of John Wiley & Sons, (in press). Cost-Effectiveness Analysis. AEI Economy 105(5): 1061-79, 1997. Report.” Chicago: NORC, 1997. 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66 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 67 T Smith, Tom W. “Factors Relating Smith, Tom W. “Measuring Church Smith, Tom W. “The Public's View Su, S., J. Hoffmann, D. Gerstein, Thalji, L., P. Perry, N. Grilley, B. Tourangeau, R., M. Zimowski, to Misanthropy in Contemporary Attendance.” GSS Methodological of Inter-group Relations in the and R. Johnson. “The Effect of Nichols, and R. Tourangeau. and R. Ghadialy. “An Introduction American Society.” Social Science Report No. 88. Chicago: NORC, Contemporary United States.” Home Environment on Adolescent “The Prospective Longitudinal to Panel Surveys in Transportation Research, 26,170-196, 1997. December, 1996. Published as Re p o r t prep a r ed for The National Substance Use and Depressive Study of Adolescent Health In- Re s e a r ch.” Washington, D.C.: Federal “A Review of Church Attendance Conference, July, 1997. Symptoms.” Journal of Drug School Component Final Report.” Highway Administration, 1997. 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Edited Smith, Tom W. “E Pluribus Unum: 1997.,” The Public Perspective, 8 Adolescent Health 20: 426-433, 1997. Official Statistics, (in press). R. Tourangeau, New York: John by Regina Dougherty, Everrett C. Italian Americans in the United (February/March, 1997), 28-30. Wiley & Sons, (in press). Ladd, David Wilber, and Lynn States.” Report prepared for the Su, S. Susan. “Research on Tourangeau, R., G. Shapiro, A. Za y a c h k i w s k y . Storrs, CT: Roper Smith, Tom W. “The 1996 National Italian American Substance Use and Abuse among Kearney, and L. Ernst. "Who Lives Townsend, Robert M. “Microe n t e r p r i s e Center, 1997. National Gun Policy Survey of the Foundation, August, 1997. Asian-Americans: Methodological Here? Survey Undercoverage and and Macropolicy: Evaluation of National Opinion Research Center: and Conceptual Considerations.” Household Roster Questions." 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68 NORC Annual Report 1997 1997 Annual Report NORC 69 Y Z Yamaguchi, Kazuo. "The Influence Zimowski, M., R. Tourangeau, of Spouses’ Behavior and Marital R. Ghadialy, and S. Pedlow. Dissolution on Marijuana Use: “Reporting and Reducing Causation or Selection." Journal of Nonresponse in Household Travel Marriage and the Family 59(1): 22- Su r veys.” Washington, D.C.: Federal 36, 1997. Highway Administration, 1997.

Yamaguchi, Kazuo. “Some Zimowski, M.F., R. Tourangeau, Cumulative Legit Models for Panel- R. Ghadialy, and S. Pedlow. Data Analysis: A Dynamic Analysis “N o n r esponse in Household Tra v e l of Personal Efficacy.” Quality and Surveys.” U.S. Department of Quantity, (in press). Transportation. Washington, D.C., (in press). Yamaguchi, Kazuo and Denise B. Kandel. “Parametric Event Sequence Analysis: An Application to an Analysis of Gender and Racial/Ethnic Differences in Patterns of Drug-Use Progression.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 96:(436): 1388-1399, 1996.

Yang, Shu-Lung, and John P. Hoffmann. “A Multilevel Assessment of Social Disorganization Theory in Taipei, Taiwan.” Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, (in press).

70 NORC Annual Report 1997