Climate and Floods in Myanmar

Climate and Floods In Myanmar

Tin Yi (Assistant Director) DMH MYANMAR Lat – 9° 30’ to 28° 30’ N, Long - 92° 10’ to 101° 11’ E Neighbouring countries – India, Bangladesh, China, Laos, Thailand, 92° 94° 96° 100° N

INDIA

CHINA Department of Meteorology and Hydrology

LAOS Meteorological Station- 63 Hydrological station - 30 THAILAND Met & Hydro station - 39 Agro-Met Stations - 18 Aviation-Met station - 8 ANDARMAN SEA Seismological station - 11

100 50 0 50 100

Monsoon Onset in Northern Myanmar Areas During ( 1955-2008 )

180 1977 175 168( 1992)

170 165(1977) 165

160

155

150

Onset Days 145

140

135 Nothern Onset Days 130 NORMAL 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Nothern Onset Days) 125

120 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Yers

- Climate change impact on onset criteria appreciable shift to late.Since1977 to 2008 all year shown late advanced monsoon about 7 to 12 days later than normal. ANNUAL MONSOON WITHDRAWAL DATES OF SOUTHERN MYANMAR(1955- DURING 2008)

1989 y = -0.3615x + 291.89 300

295

290 283

285

280 withdrawal days

275 276(1976)

270 269(1991)

Southern mean Linear (Southern) 265 264(2000)

260 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 years

- Monsoon withdrawal dates are shift to early. - Since1989 to 2008 (except 1993) all year shown early withdrawal monsoon about 15 to 25 days early than normal. Duration of Monsoon since Onset in Northernill Withdrawl t from Southern Myanmar Areas(1955-2008)

170 Nothern to Southen

Mean 160 Linear (Nothern to Southen)

150 1989

140 130

130 Duration(days)

120 (1977)113

110

(1979)102 100 (2004)100

90 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 years -The duration of monsoon seasons were shorter than normal starting from 1989 - The late onset and the early withdrawal of monsoon are responsible for the shorter duration of monsoon seasons Monsoon Depression in the Bay of Bengal During 1926-2008

14 y = -0.0813x + 9.293

12 frequency Linear (frequency)

frequency 6

0 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 year ANNUAL MONSOON STRENGTH INDICES OF MYANMAR DURING 1951-2000

600 y = -0.1365x + 474.98

550

500

450

400

350

300 Monsoon Indices Linear (Monsoon Indices) 250 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Monsoon Indices)

200 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 YEARS

The years 1951, 1953,1957,1977,1979,1996 and 1998 were weak monsoon years, where the impact of EL Nino were evident in most years. PERCENTAGE DEPARTURE OF ANNUAL AREA AVERAGE RAINFALLS OVER MYANMAR DURING THE PERIOD 1960-2000 20 1973 Percentage Departures 15 Linear (Percentage Departures) 1970 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Percentage Departures) 1999 10 1996

-5 1962 1972 2000 PERCENTAE DEPARTURE PERCENTAE 1989 -10 1986 1993 -15

-20 1979 WETTER PHASE DRIER PHASE -25 1998

-30 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEARS

A phase change of decreasing in annual rainfall occurred starting from 1977 during the period 1960-2000. ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DEPARTURES OF MONSOON RAINFALLS DURING 1947-2000

60 y = -0.7421x + 1456.1 40

MEAN 0

-20

-40

-60 PERCENTAE DEPARTURRES PERCENTAE

-80 Rainfall Departures Linear (Series1) 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Series1) -100

-120 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 YEARS

- The monsoon rainfall showed a continuous negative anomalies in each of every year from 1981 to 1998 except in 1990. A NNUA L PERCENT AGE DEPA RT URES OF T IM E AND A REA AV ERAGED HEAT INDICES OF MYANMAR DURING THE PERIOD 1960-2000

COOLER PHASE WARMER PHASE 6

2 MEAN 0

DEPARTURES (% -2 Heat Indices 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Heat Indices) -4 Linear (Heat Indices)

-6 1976

1960 1965 1970 1975 19805 1990 198 1995Lwin .2001 2000 2005

YEARS ANNUAL DROUGHT INDICES OF MYANMAR DURING 1951-2000

40 y = 0.2582x - 507.97

0 DROUGHT INDEX

-10

-20 Drought Index 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Drought Index) Linear (Drought Index) -30 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 YEARS

The drought anomaly also showed positives anomalies in most years of 1980s and 1990s. www.themegallery.com 16-99 enST (0020)Ma SSTA Mean Mean SSTA(1960-1969) (2000-2008) May -1st Dekad May -1 st Dekad Severe Cyclonic Storms in Bay of Bengal(2006-2009) - Global warming is forcing ocean Severe Cyclonic Storm MALA, Severe Cyclonic Storm AKASH, 24-30 April, 2006 2-15 May, 2007 temperatures to rise, which is causing storms, including cyclones and hurricanes, to intensify.

- Higher ocean temperatures in the top couple of hundred feet of the ocean, which drives convection energy and moisture into these storms and makes them more powerful.

-Strong correlation between intense storms and global

Severe Cyclonic Storm NARGIS, Cyclonic Storm AILA, warming. 27 April – 3 May, 2008 22-25 May, 2009 Climate change in Myanmar • The annual onset dates of monsoon into Myanmar during 1955-2008 indicates that monsoon onsets were late starting from 1977. • Starting from1989 ( except 1993), the withdrawal of monsoon from Myanmar were early than normal. • The duration of monsoon seasons were shorter than normal starting from 1989 • The late onset and the early withdrawal of monsoon are responsible for the shorter duration of monsoon seasons. • The trend analysis of Monsoon depression (1926-2008)is the falling trend. The annual frequency of monsoon depressions becomes significantly less in 1980s and 1990s. After 2003, the frequency becomes more. • The monsoon strength were weak in 1951, 1953,1957,1977,1979,1996 and 1998 , where the impact of EL Nino were evident in most years. • The normal monsoon breaks were disappeared in almost every years during 1989- 1997. The break situation returned again in 1998, it however disappeared again from 1999 to 2006 and returned again in 2007 and 2008.

• The monsoon rainfall showed a continuous negative anomalies in each of every year from 1981 to 1998 except in 1990. The drought anomaly also showed positives anomalies in most years of 1980s and 1990s.

• Sea surface temperature rise, which is causing storms, including cyclones and hurricanes, to intensify. Myanmar Average Annual Water Resources Potential by River Basin

Drainage Ground River Name of the Area Surface water Basin Principal River (Thousand Water Number Basin (Km3/annum) (Km3/annum) sq-km) 1 Chindwin 115 141 58 2 Upper Ayeyarwady 193 228 93 3 Lower Ayeyarwady 96 86 153 4 Sittoung 48 81 28 5 Rakhine 58 139 42 6 Taninthayi 41 131 39 7 Thanlwin 158 258 75 8 Mekong 29 18 7 Total 738 1082 495 N

Hkamti River Forecasting Stations Myitkyina

Homalin

Bhamo Ayeyarwady - 12 Stations Katha

Mawlaik Chindwin - 5 Stations Kalewa Monywa Hsipaw Sagaing Mandalay Myitnge Thanlwin - 1 Station Nyaung U Chauk Minbu Magway Sittoung - 2 Stations Aunglan Pyay Taungoo

Madauk Shwegyin Shwegyin - 1 Station Henzada Zaungtu Bago Bago - 1 Station Hpa-an

Dokehtawady - 2 Station ANDARMAN SEA

100 50 0 50 100 Ayeyarwady and Chindwin - Intense heavy rain due to pronounced monsoon trough persisting for at least 3 days over Northern Myanmar areas - Heavy rainfall due to cyclonic storm crossing Myanmar and Bangladesh coasts during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon Sittaung and Thanlwin - Mostly due to rainfall associated with low pressure waves (the remnants of typhoons and tropical storms of South China Sea) moving from east to west across the country

• Small rivers channels - Coastal Floods (Storm Surges) • Streams in mountainous regions - Small River Floods (Flash Floods) Severe Flood Years (Since 1966 )

River Highest Water Level Recorded at Year Total Stations above Danger Level Chindwin Homalin 1968 14 stations

Ayeyarwady Chauk, Minbu, Aunglan, Pyay 1974 20 stations

Chindwin Mawlaik 1976 18 stations

Ayeyarwady Myitkyina, Katha 1979 14 stations

Chindwin Hkamti 1991 16 stations

Sittoung Madauk 1997 19 stations Shwegyin Shwegyin Chindwin Kalewa, Monywa 2002 15 stations Thanlwin Hpa-an Ayeyarwady Bhamo, Sagaing, Mandalay, 2004 21 stations Nyaung Oo, Magway Flood Record in Myanmar (since 1966)

DangerLevel Max. WL above DL Stations Flood Duration Year (cm) (cm) (m)

Ayeyarwady Myitkyina 1200 1411 4 days 12 Hrs 2.11 1979 Bhamo 1150 1338 8 days 2 Hrs 2.38 2004 Katha 1040 1154 7 days 6 Hrs 1.14 1979 Mandalay 1260 1382 16 Days 1.22 2004 Sagaing 1150 1274 17 Days 6 Hrs 1.24 2004 Nyaung Oo 2120 2263 16 Days 12 Hrs 1.43 2004 Chauk 1450 1532 12 Days 12 Hrs 0.82 1974 Minbu 1700 1982 17 Days 12 Hrs 2.82 1974 Aunglan 2550 2737 15 Days 1.87 1974 Pyay 2900 3025 13 Days 1.25 1974 Hinthada 1342 1582 23 Days 12 Hrs 2.40 1966 Chindwin Hkamti 1360 1771 18 Days 6 Hrs 4.11 1991 Homalin 2900 3107 18 Days 6 Hrs 2.07 1968 Mawlaik 1230 1608 15 Days 12 Hrs 3.78 1976 Kalewa 1550 1920 10 Day 12 Hrs 3.70 2002

Monywa 1000 1099 9 Days 6 Hrs 0.99 2002 Flood Record in Myanmar (since 1966)

DangerLevel Max. WL Stations Flood Duration above DL (m) Year (cm) (cm) Sittoung Toungoo 600 725 16 Days 18 Hrs 1.25 1973 Madauk 1070 1244 31 Days 1.74 1997 Dokhtawady Hsipaw 600 618 12 Hrs 0.18 1971 Myitnge 870 1048 8 Days 6 Hrs 1.78 2006 Shwegyin Shwegyin 700 927 4 Days 12 Hrs 2.27 1997 Bago Bago 910 950 2 Days 6 Hrs 0.4 1995 Thanlwin Hpaan 750 936 38 Days 1.86 2002 Percentage of Occurrence of Floods in Months and Flood Frequency along Ayeyarwady River

Monthly Flood Frequency(%) Flood Stations Period Flood Year June July August Sept Oct Frequency Myitkyina 1(14%) 5(57%) 0 1(15%) 1(14%) 1966-08 7 in 43 yrs 7 in 43 yrs Bhamo 1(6%) 11(60%) 2(11%) 3(17%) 1(16%) 1968-08 18 in 41 yrs 13 in 41 yrs Katha 3(8%) 21(62%) 6(18%) 2(6%) 2(6%) 1966-08 34 in 43 yrs 22 in 43 yrs Mandalay 0 5(63%) 0 1(12%) 2(25%) 1976-08 8 in 33 yrs 6 in 33 yrs Sagaing 0 7(28%) 8(32%) 7(28%) 3(12%) 1966-08 25 in 43 yrs 20 in 43 yrs

Nyaung Oo 0 14(33%) 13(31%) 10(24%) 5(12%) 1966-08 42 in 43 yrs 29 in 43 yrs

Chauk 0 3(34%) 3(33%) 2(22%) 1(11%) 1973-08 9 in 36 yrs 9 in 36 yrs

Minbu 0 9(24%) 15(38%) 11(28%) 4(10%) 1966-08 39 in 43 yrs 26 in 43 yrs

Magway 0 7(37%) 5(26%) 5((26%) 2(11%) 1990-08 19 in 19 yrs 10 in 19 yrs Aunglan 0 3(21%) 5(36%) 6(43%) 0 1973-08 14 in 36 yrs 11 in 36 yrs Pyay 0 5(29%) 4(24%) 7(41%) 1(6%) 1966-08 17 in 43 yrs 15 in 43 yrs

Hinthada 0 12(25%) 21(44%) 12(25%) 3(6%) 1967-08 48 in 42 yrs 26 in 42 yrs Percentage of Occurrence of Floods in Months and Flood Frequency along Chindwin and other Rivers

Monthly Flood Frequency(%) Flood Stations Period Flood Year June July August Sept Oct Frequency Chindwin River Hkamti 3(7%) 26(57%) 12(26%) 5(10%) 0 1967-08 46 in 42 yrs 29 in 42 yrs Homalin 4(7%) 28(50%) 15(27%) 7(13%) 2(3%) 1968-08 56 in 41 yrs 32 in 41 yrs Mawlaik 1(2%) 23(40%) 17(30%) 11(9%) 5(9%) 1965-08 57 in 44 yrs 32 in 44 yrs Kalewa 1(2%) 23(40%) 17(30%) 12(21%) 4(7%) 1966-08 57 in 43 yrs 33 in 43 yrs Monywa 0 16(38%) 14(34%) 9(21%) 3(7%) 1966-08 42 in 43 yrs 29 in 43 yrs Dokehtawady River Myitnge 1(2%) 15(25%) 19(32%) 17(29%) 7(12%) 1972-08 59 in 37 yrs 31 in 37 yrs Sittoung River Toungoo 0 9(14%) 37(59%) 12(19%) 5(8%) 1966-08 63 in 43 yrs 34 in 43 yrs Madauk 2(2%) 23(27%) 50(58%) 10(11%) 2(2%) 1966-08 87 in 43 yrs 40 in 43 yrs Shwegyin River Shwegyin 2(5%) 9(23%) 27(69%) 1(3%) 0 1965-08 39 in 44 yrs 24 in 44 yrs Bago River Bago 1(6%) 5(31%) 10(63%) 0 0 1965-08 16 in 44 yrs 13 in 44 yrs Thanlwin River Hpaan 2(2%) 33(36%) 45(49%) 11(12%) 1(1%) 1966-08 92 in 43 yrs 38 in 43 yrs Annual Flood Occurrence Percentage in Myanmar (1966-2008)

100

90 80

70 60 50 40 30

20 Annual Flood Occurrence % Occurrence Flood Annual 10

0 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 year

More than 50 % - 23 yrs Equal to 50 % - 3 yrs Less than 50 % - 17 yrs Annual Maximum Water Levels at Myitkyina Station Annual Maximum Water Levels at Katha Station (Ayeyarwady)(1972-2008) (Ayeyarwady)(1966-2008)

1600 1200

1400

1000 1200 Water Level (cm) Level Water

Water LevelWater (cm) 1000

800 800 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year Year

Annual Maximum Water Levels at Nyaung U Station Annual Maximum Water Levels at Hinthada Station (Ayeyarwady)(1972-2008) (Ayeyarwady)(1966-2008)

2400 1600

2200

1400

2000 Water Level (cm) Water Level (cm) Level Water

1800 1200 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Year Year Annual Maximum Water Levels at Hkamti Station Annual Maximum Water Levels at Mawlaik Station (Chindwin)(1967-2008) (Chindwin)(1965-2008)

1600 1700

1400 1500

1300 1200 Water Level (cm) Level Water 1100 Water Level (cm) 1000

900 800 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Year Year

Annual Maximum Water Levels at Monywa Station Annual Maximum Water Levels at Myitnge Station (Chindwin)(1965-2008) (Dokehtawady)(1972-2008)

1200 1200

1000

800 Water Level (cm) Water Level (cm)

800 600 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year Year Annual Maximum Water Levels at Madauk Station Annual Maximum Water Levels at Shwegyin Station (Sittoung)(1966-2008) (Shwegyin)(1965-2008)

1300 1000

1100 800 Water LevelWater (cm) 900 LevelWater (cm) 600

700 400 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Year Year

Annual Maximum Waterevels L at Hpa-an Station Annual Maximum Water Levels at Bago Station (Bago)(1965- (Thanlwin)(1965-2008) 2008)

1000 1000

900 950

800 900

700 Water Level (cm) Level Water Water Level (cm) 850 600

500 800 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Year Year Conclusion • Impacts of climate change also occur in Myanmar

• DMH is only one service issuing warnings for hydrological, Meteorological and seismological disasters. • The relevant depts. in Myanmar are implementing the projects, workshops and meetings related to the climate change, also climate change assessment and adaptation cooperating with international organizations. • DMH is also doing the analysis of the climate change trends and also develop the scenario for climate data.

• DMH is very actively contributing in the projects, workshops and meetings related with climate change assessment and adaptation.