Image from NASA LCLUC website: http://lcluc.umd.edu/images/Regional_Initiatives/NEESPI3-large.jpg Conceptualization of the Effects of Climate and LCLUC on Hydrological Processes

Land Surface Climatological Hydrological Drivers Processes

Land Cover/ Socioeconomic Land Use Responses Change LCLUC in NEESPI: Interactions with climate and hydrology

 5 projects

 Eshleman (UMCES), Townsend, Holko et al.

 Aizen (UI) et al.

 Saatchi (UCLA) et al.

 Shiklomanov (UNH) et al.

 Lammers (UNH) et al. LCLUC in NEESPI: Interactions with climate and hydrology

 5 projects

Small  Eshleman (UMCES), Townsend, Holko et al.

 Aizen (UI) et al.

 Saatchi (UCLA) et al.

 Spatial scale Shiklomanov (UNH) et al. Large  Lammers (UNH) et al. Exacerbation of flooding in due to deforestation

 Comparative analysis of data from small gaged catchments in

 Complements research in Appalachian Mountains

 Took advantage of November 2004 blowdown of ~60 km2 of conifer forest

 Established a good collaboration with L. Holko (Inst. Hydrology, SAS) The High Tatra Mts. (341 km2)– the highest part of the Carpathians (241000 km2)

26 km 17 km Subcatchments, precipitation stations, windfall area

[m n.m.] Lomnický štít Skalnaté pleso P o p r 2600 a d - S . T. Lomnica 41 P l 2300 e S. Lesná so S S. Smokovec ka ln 8 S a tu t d ý Štrbské Pleso e p 2000 n . T. Polianka ý 32 p Kežmarok 20 . 1700 5 S la V v 14P e k o lic o p k v r ý sk a p ý d . p 1400 -S . vi 12 t Poprad Štrba 1100 vce atejo Vlková - ad-M Popr 800 Gánovce

500 Velky_Sum Poprad_StrbskePleso Skaredy Poprad_Kezmarok Slavkovsky Jazierkovy

Jazierkovy_small

SkalnatyCreek

Poprad_Svit

Poprad_Matejovce SlavkovskyCreek Classification of forest damage between 2003-2005 for the Slovakian High Tatras study area. Non-conifer areas retain their original land cover categories. Discharges (Poprad river) and windfalls 3 40 3 3

35 3

30 2500000m - 420000m

25 - 2950000m - 940000m

20 - [mm] 2004 1941

15 1981 1971 10

5

0 11/1/1930 11/1/1933 11/1/1936 11/1/1939 11/1/1942 11/1/1945 11/1/1948 11/1/1951 11/1/1954 11/1/1957 11/1/1960 11/1/1963 11/1/1966 11/1/1969 11/1/1972 11/1/1975 11/1/1978 11/1/1981 11/1/1984 11/1/1987 11/1/1990 11/1/1993 11/1/1996 11/1/1999 11/1/2002 11/1/2005 Pre- and post-windfall discharges

Poprad-Štrbské Pleso 30 0% ] m 20 [ m f o

n 10 u R 0 30 ] m 20 Poprad-Svit [ m 8% f o

n 10 u R 0 30 ] m 20 Velický creek [ m 24% f o

n 10 u R 0 20 ]

m 16 Slavkovský creek

[ m 12 35% f

o 8 n u

R 4 0 20 ] Poprad-Matejovce

m 16 13%

[ m 12 f

o 8 n u

R 4 0 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 5 4 1 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 0 1 0 1 9 9 0 8 7 6 8 7 8 6 7 5 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 9 3 9 3 9 3 3 9 9 3 3 9 3 9 3 9 April – minimum and maximum daily runoff

Poprad-Strbské Pleso Velický creek 4 Slavkovský creek

] 3 m m [ 2 n i m R 1

0 8 9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 6 2 6 4 6 6 8 7 0 7 2 7 4 7 6 7 8 8 0 8 2 8 4 8 6 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 25

] 20 m m

[ 15

x a 10 m

R 5 0 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 6 2 8 9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 9 6 9 6 9 6 9 7 9 7 9 7 9 7 9 7 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 New small gaged (& nested) subcatchments

Poprad-Strbske Pleso 3 4 2 1 Poprad-Kezmarok

Skalnaty creek

Slavkovsky creek Poprad-Svit Veľký Šum - 4.6 km2, 1592 m a.s.l.

Škaredý creek - 1.1 km2, 1564 m a.s.l.

Jazierkový creek - 0.7 km2, 1041 m a.s.l.

2 Slavkovský c.-fire - 3.7 km , 1759 m a.s.l. Photos P. Fleischer 2008 Comparison of discharges in the nested catchments (2008)

46 km2

12 Poprad-Svit

] Velký Šum 8 m [ f o f u n 4 R 4.6 km2 0 15-Nov 16-Dec 16-Jan 16-Feb 18-Mar 18-Apr 19-May 19-Jun 20-Jul 20-Aug 20-Sep 21-Oct Comparison of discharges in the nested catchments (2008)

3.7 km2 6 Slavkovský creek 2 ] Slavkovský creek-fire 43 km m 4 m [ f

u n o f 2 R

0 15-Nov 16-Dec 16-Jan 16-Feb 18-Mar 18-Apr 19-May 19-Jun 20-Jul 20-Aug 20-Sep 21-Oct Comparison of discharges in the nested catchments (2008)

0.7 km2

1.1 km2 12 Skalnatý creek Škaredý creek 2

] 34 km m 8 Jazierkový creek m [ f f o n u 4 R

0 15-Nov 16-Dec 16-Jan 16-Feb 18-Mar 18-Apr 19-May 19-Jun 20-Jul 20-Aug 20-Sep 21-Oct Complicating Factors

Elevation & annual P Variability in surficial geology (moraine deposits) . ] . l 2700 mm . s

a 2400 mm 2580 mm

[ m 1780 mm n i o

a t 2050 mm v e l E 1120 mm

930 mm

NORTH Distance [km] SOUTH

Molnár and Pacl, 1988

LCLUC NASA Second year Project Report Vladimir and Elena Aizen, University of Idaho

Objectives for the 2nd year

Evaluate changes in

• Climate • Seasonal snow cover • Glacier’s area and volume • Snow/glacier runoff • Effect of changing water resources on irrigated lands in Amu Dar’ya River basin in the last 30 to 100 years

Towards an Integrative and Sustainable Science Program for Caspian Sea Environment

Sassan S. Saatchi Senior Scientist UCLA/Institute of Environment NASA/JPL California Institute of Technology

Collaborators: Qiang Fu, UCLA/Geography Dept. (PhD Student) Ali Nouri, UCLA/Institute of Environment (Postdoc) Soleiman Mohamadi, Gilan University, Iran Dara Entekhabi, MIT Babak Hedjazi, University of Geneva Caspian Sea Environment The Caspian Sea basin is rich with diverse aquatic, avian and terrestrial wildlife, and has a variety of ecosystems with unique and fragile hydrological and ecological characteristics.

1. Largest land-locked body of water on earth 2. Caspian drainage basin is ~ 3.5 Million km2 1. (world’s largest watershed, and annual runoff) with 130 rivers flowing into the sea with Volga contributes 80% of runoff. 3. Being a closed body and large basin, the system can filter high frequency water budget and is a good indicator of interdecadal and long term climate change 4. Being a closed system hydrological and biogeochemical processes are intimately linked (water, energy, resources) Any changes in land impacts the hydrology and ecosystem & vise versa. 5. The basin is diverse in ecosystems, natural habitats, large river systems, major wetlands with high level species endemism and diversity. 6. Caspian has drastic sea level change due to climate and hydrological processes. Caspian Sea Environment Proposal Objectives

Fundamental Questions: 1. How does Caspian Sea Function as an entity (e.g. hydrological & Ecological system)? 2. To what extent human developments (past, present, future) impacts the environment? 3. What is the interaction of Caspian Sea Region with regional and global Climate?

Specific Science Questions:

1. What is the impact of human induced changes of land, sea and coast on Caspian Hydrological and Ecosystem Function? 2. How does regional and global climate change and variability impact the Caspian ecosystem? 3. How can regional development be sustained along with the Caspian conservation of resources and nature? Caspian Watershed Study

Study Area Caspian Ecosystems Landsat ETM circa 2000

Caucasus mixed forests Azerbaijan shrub steppe

Caspian Hyrcanian forests Central Asian northern desert

Pontic steppe Central Asian southern desert Phase I

Assessment of impacts of land cover Land use change on Caspian Sea Watershed hydrology integrated remote-sensing and modeling system & training 1. watershed and water resource health, 2. spatial and temporal variability in regional water fluxes 3. potential change in groundwater recharge/resources, 4. potential change in evaporative flux 5. potential change in surface water runoff (retention basin loss), 6. potential impact of increased urbanization 7. Identify gaps in potential data and information requirements 8. Identify stakeholders and human factors through a series of metrics Phase II Simulations of Caspian Hydrology

Use of geographically distributed model to model the closed basin hydrology to capture linkages and possible feedbacks between land hydrology, synoptic atmospheric circulations, and physical and biological limnology of the Caspian Sea and its watershed.

The over schematic of the tRIBS-VEGGIE architecture: a) Example of a TIN representation of topography within the distributed (spatial) watershed model, b) an unstructured grid cell representation of the model with water, energy and biospheric processes, and c) A conceptual diagram of carbon fluxes simulated by the model (Ivanov et al., 2008a). LAND USE AND LAND COVER CLASSIFICATION AND CHANGE DETECTION OF THE CASPIAN SEA BASIN

The forests of southern Caspian region in Iran is considered the remnants of Hyrcanian vegetation zone within the Euro- Siberian region and is considered the largest forest patch within the Caspian Sea basin. The vegetation zone is a green belt stretching over the northern slopes of Alborz Mountains stretching from southern Turkmenistan from the east to southern Azerbaijan Landsat ETM circa 2000 in the west Changes of Forest Cover Observed by Landsat Summary

• Deforestation and land cover and land use change are extensive in particular in southern Caspian region with areas of forests being replaced by urban and agricultural land.

• We have processed MODIS data over about 10 years and analyzing it to quantify LCLUC over the entire Caspian Sea Basin from 2000-2010.

• Surface parameterization for spatial hydrological model has been completed. We are submitting our second phase proposal to develop the model and examine the impact of land use and climate over the basin.

Summary

Data consolidation and harmonization . We show how we have integrated multidisciplinary data streams from multiple projects spanning several domains. This has proven to be a powerful analysis tool for researchers and students

Analysis of water cycle components and impacts . We have made historical analysis of changes in water cycle components, land cover and water use across NEESPI region. Climate plays major role in most regions of NEESPI

Future projections . We have analyzed IPCC scenarios from different AO GCMs and found a wide variability in precipitation projections for the region . Results of simulations with UNH water balance models using different AO GCMs climate projections show more consistent changes in hydrology . Preliminary projections of future water balance show wetter climate and higher runoff for most NEESPI region except Central Asia and Southern Europe where it is opposite.