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Neighbourspakistan neighbours PAKISTAN STILL IN COMMAND Despite the odds being against him, President Musharraf manages to turn the tables on his opponents and stay on top, but he may emerge considerably weakened by the political battle Photographs by REUTERS THE SURVIVOR: General Musharraf MUSHARRAF DIVIDED THE OPPOSITION AND MANIPULATED THE POLITICAL SYSTEM TO ble Opposition party—to his side, some- I By Hasan Zaidi in Karachi thing Zia had never managed to do. ENSURE HIS CONTINUITY. uring the 11-year reign of mil- Although the results of the October [ itary dictator General Zia-ul- 6 presidential elections cannot be offi- indication, the court seems to be weary Haq, a wit had dubbed him cially notified until the Supreme Court of politicians who abdicate their re- “Pakistan’s greatest politi- delivers its verdict—expected on sponsibilities in Parliament and rely on cian”, in deference to his mas- October 17—on the legitimacy of the court to be their political battering Dtery of the rough and tumble of Musharraf standing for a re-election, ram. “The superior judiciary, all said realpolitik. The title consciously es- most observers believe that the and done, is a part of this establish- chewed reference to ‘statesmanship’, General has sailed past the worst. ment and state,” says veteran journal- which Zia projected as his forte. After Given an earlier judgement wherein ist M.B. Naqvi. “The political changes the events of the last 10 days, General the Supreme Court had dismissed the the lawyers and public want require Pervez Musharraf’ could easily sur- petitions against Musharraf as “un- political action by political parties, but pass Zia in his claim to the same title. maintainable”—much to the shock of that is missing.” Not only was Musharraf able to suc- the Opposition—not many expect the For their part, the stock markets— cessfully divide an ominous opposition apex court to hurl the country in crisis always a barometer of how business- movement against him, he also by annulling the President’s re-elec- men perceive future stability—reacted brought Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)— tion. If the comments of the judges on with jubilation at the news of ostensibly the largest and most credi- the bench during the hearings are any Musharraf’s victory, rocketing up- 40 INDIA TODAY N OCTOBER 22, 2007 neighbours PAKISTAN WITH A BHUTTO DEAL IN PLACE AND CLOSE AIDE KIYANI AS VICE-CHIEF OF ARMY, MUSHARRAF IS ALL [SET TO RETAIN POWER. wards to break all index records. expected to take over as the army chief KEY PARTNERS: PPP chief Bhutto Ever since March 9, when his trou- once Musharraf gives up his uniform. (left), Vice-Chief of Army Kiyani bles began with the attempted sacking Another senior general and confidant, The resignation of the members of of the Supreme Court Chief Justice General Tariq Majeed, has been pro- All Parties Democratic Movement Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, he has moted as chairman, Joint Chiefs of (APDM) and abstention of PPP means that never looked as confident in power as Staff committee—the titular head of Musharraf did not face any challenge. he does now. Only a month ago the the three armed forces. These appoint- He secured 57 per cent of the total elec- threat of exiled premier Nawaz Sharif ments—in place of retiring generals— toral college votes and 98 per cent of returning to a tumultuous welcome indicate that Musharraf would like to the votes cast. The lawyers’ candidate, and the political momentum gathering have trusted figures as military heads former Justice Wajihuddin Ahmed, against the General were giving his ad- before becoming a civilian president. secured only 8 votes. visers sleepless nights. However, some The Government was also able to deft manoeuvring on Musharraf’s part econd, and more importantly, drive a wedge between Jamaat-e- and a surprising amount of luck have Musharraf secured an under- Islami (JI) and Jamiat-e-Ulema-e- vastly changed the political scenario. standing with former premier Islam (JUI), the two major components First, Musharraf promised in the court Sand current American favourite of religious alliance Muttahida Majlis- that he would step down as the army Benazir Bhutto, as her PPP refused to e-Amal (MMA). Many believe the pre- chief before taking oath as a re-elected join other political parties in resigning mature announcement by JUI leader president, a vow that, at least superfi- from the assemblies. PPP’s mere Maulana Fazl ur-Rahman that his cially, acknowledged the public mood abstention during the presidential party’s chief minister in the North- against him continuing as the head of elections provided Musharraf the West Frontier Province would call for the state in uniform. Lending credibil- cover of a legitimate election that may the provincial assembly’s dissolution to ity to this promise was the appoint- not have been so clear had the entire break up Musharraf’s electoral col- ment of the former Inter-Services Opposition quit in protest. He himself lege, was calculated by the Maulana to Intelligence head and close confidant, said in an interview, “Only 163 provide the Federal Government the General Ashfaq Kiyani, as the vice- members or so out of an electoral time to counter the move. As it tran- chief of army staff. Kiyani, widely re- college of 1,169 resigned, so where’s spired, the Federal Government’s al- spected for his professionalism, is the problem of legitimacy?” lies in the provincial parliament 42 INDIA TODAY N OCTOBER 22, 2007 neighbours PAKISTAN immediately initiated a no-confidence has also been challenged in the courts, but the reaction in Pakistan has been move against the chief minister, which has led to a public outcry. Many, includ- anything but positive. Even liberal prevented the Assembly from being ing members of the ruling Muslim commentators such as former ambas- dissolved until after the presidential League, see it as allowing the corrupt sador Tariq Fatemi labelled her state- elections. JI’s provincial legislators to go scot-free. Despite her attempts to ments as “completely uncalled for”. then resigned in a huff, to no avail, as justify it as not specific to a person— How such perceptions impact the larger JUI members did not. The the Ordinance will benefit many in- the electoral fortunes of PPP still simmering tension between the two cluding Sharif and members of the remains to be seen. But they do not parties was out in the open, which put ruling coalition—the credibility of bode well for long-term relations a question mark on the future of the Bhutto and her party has been seri- between Bhutto and Musharraf. In a Opposition religious alliance. ously damaged. Most people believe tersely worded rejoinder to Bhutto’s Two fortuitous circumstances also she has made a pact with the devil— statements, the President discounted bolstered Musharraf’s position. The compromising on their anti-military the possibility of such “compromises to first was the failure of the Sharif-led rule principles—simply to save her national security.” APDM in mobilising the masses to wel- skin and the allegedly looted wealth. Analysts are also questioning if come the former prime minister. It MISSION FAILED: Sharif-led APDM Bhutto—who has been out of the coun- made deportation of Sharif easy for the could not mobilise mass support try in self-imposed exile for more than General even though it meant eight years—is clued in to the flouting the Supreme Court sea changes that have taken ruling which allowed him to re- place in Pakistan. The same turn to Pakistan. questions are valid for Sharif, if The second was the he also makes a comeback. Supreme Court judgement “When they left, for example, all throwing out the initial petitions that existed was a state-con- against Musharraf’s candida- trolled news media,” says Azhar ture and allowing the elections Abbas, head of Dawn News, one to be held on schedule. The 6-3 of over 50 new television chan- majority judgement unnerved nels. “Can they even deal with even the lawyers’ movement the kind of assertive, almost dis- and many of its leading lights, respectful, media that has who had been singing paeans to mushroomed in their absence?” a “new independent judiciary”, For his part, Musharraf may were reduced to questioning the have had his powers clipped motives of the apex court judges. when he agreed to step down as It was a big blow to the credibil- the army chief. But he retains ity of the movement. Television the power to dismiss govern- commentators questioned if the ments. He even said he had not lawyers were supportive of a ju- WHILE GENERAL MUSHARRAF HAS changed his mind about Bhutto’s diciary that gave judgements SEEMINGLY BACKED BHUTTO, misdemeanours but “the recon- only in their favour. ciliation was necessary in the The coup de grâce from the SHARIF COULD BENEFIT FROM larger interest of the country in Musharraf camp was the prom- order to fight the threat of ex- ulgation of the National PPP’S LOSS OF CREDIBILITY. tremism”. With casualties Reconciliation Ordinance, [ mounting every day in the fight which provided indemnity to the There is also widespread resent- against militants in tribal areas bor- actions of politicians and bureaucrats ment at Bhutto having played into the dering Afghanistan, the army will play during the “democratic decade” from hands of the Americans just to grab a major role in guiding elected govern- 1988 to 1999. This had been one of power. In two widely reported state- ments in countering militancy. the long-standing demands of Bhutto, ments to the American media, she has PPP is hoping that the dynamics of a who faced a number of serious corrup- promised that if elected to power, she general election next year will make tion allegations.
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