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Price Dynamics and Cointegration in the Major Markets of Aquaculture Species in the Philippines

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Price Dynamics and Cointegration in the Major Markets of Aquaculture Species in the Philippines Yolanda T. Garcia and Nerissa D. Salayo 49 Price Dynamics and Cointegration in the Major Markets of Aquaculture Species in the Philippines Yolanda T. Garcia University of the Philippines Los Baños, Philippines E-mail: [email protected] Nerissa D. Salayo Southeast Asian Fisheries Development Center, Philippines E-mail: [email protected] ABSTRACT This study explores the interdependencies of aquaculture markets in the Philippines by establishing the price cointegration between the wholesale and retail prices of three major species commonly farmed in the country, i.e., milkfish, tilapia, and shrimp. The co-movements of wholesale prices between and among key markets for each species are also investigated. Moreover, exogeneity in prices is established using the Granger-causation model to determine the existence of price leaders among these markets. These information are crucial because they may provide a better understanding of the efficiency in price formation across production and consumption centers. Thus, aquaculture producers and traders may use these information as basis for more efficient farm management and marketing decisions. Appropriate policies for the development of markets for the three aquaculture species are also identified in this study. Such policies are expected to contribute towards more efficient pricing and distribution of benefits among market players and stakeholders. These benefits are expected to manifest through the system of grading standards for fish traded in local markets, and the choice of cost-effective technologies in grow-out and post-production practices. INTRODUCTION “nearly half of all fish eaten today is farmed, and not caught in the wild”. To illustrate the Aquaculture has always been a major growth of aquaculture, data from FAO (2009) source of food fish and animal protein for many show that while this industry provided only households, especially those belonging to the nine percent of the world food fish in 1980, its poorer sector. It has significantly provided share in total fish production had ballooned to income to fish farmers, entrepreneurs and around 52 percent by 2006. exporters in many developing countries in In the Philippines, three major aquaculture Asia. The case of Philippine aquaculture is not species have significantly contributed to different from the global trends. As noted by the overall availability of fish for human the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), consumption in the country and in various export 50 Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Vol. 6, No. 1 destinations for over three decades now. These usually associated with production uncertainty are the milkfish (Chanos chanos Forsskal), which is generally greater in markets that are tilapia (Tilapia nilotica), and tiger shrimp closer to the product origin or in the upstream (Peneaus monodon). The rising production end of the marketing chain. These production of aquaculture products in the country has uncertainties are often due to biotic constraints significantly augmented the declining supply like water quality, fish diseases, and weather of fish captured from the wild. This has been conditions which traditionally threaten made possible through improved aquaculture the aquaculture farmers. Establishing the technologies, e.g., improved broodstock relationship between the wholesale and retail domestication, better hatchery protocol, fish prices, and between wholesale prices among health management, feed development, and geographically separated markets, can help modern grow-out/culture practices. provide farmers a better understanding of the In spite of production increases due to efficiency in transmitting market information, improved culture technologies, the development which in turn defines the movement of prices of the aquaculture sector of the country has and products in the market. been challenged by the efficiency in pricing and its implications on the distribution, and OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY consumption of fish products in various areas around the country. As such, pricing efficiency This study aims to test for “price comes under close scrutiny when tackling the cointegration” and “price leadership” between role of aquaculture towards ensuring food the wholesale and retail prices in a given sufficiency and improving access to food market; and between wholesale prices among among the poor in the Philippines. Note that geographically separated markets for three major sufficiency in food fish does not come from aquaculture species in the Philippines, namely: production increases alone. Efficiency in milkfish, tilapia, and shrimp. In particular, the marketing is equally important in ensuring an study seeks to: adequate supply in consumption areas, given 1. determine the existence of price equilibrium prices. cointegration within markets (vertical The role of prices in the efficient distribution integration), and among markets of aquaculture produce has critical implications (horizontal integration) in the domestic for developing countries such as the Philippines trade of these aquaculture species; where aquaculture recorded 10.4 percent 2. measure the speed of price adjustments growth rate in 2006; while the capture fisheries in the event of a market shock, given showed only 2.6 percent growth [Bureau cointegrated prices within a market or of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) 2008]. The between two markets; dynamics in transmitting price information 3. establish the occurrence of price leader(s) from the production base to the consumption in various market centers for the three areas is an important component of price fish species; formation, more so because the Philippines 4. suggest policies to improve the production is an archipelagic country where markets are and marketing of these fish species, based spatially separated. Often, price is the most on a better understanding of the price important signal that defines the demand and interdependencies between production supply situation in the market. Aside from and consumption centers; and other market forces, variation in fish prices is 5. recommend policy options that will Yolanda T. Garcia and Nerissa D. Salayo 51 generate benefits among producers, in transmitting market information which traders, consumers, and other stakeholders defines the movement of products among these in the aquaculture sector. markets. Studies on price cointegration are useful in METHODOLOGY establishing the existence of a common trend and long-term relationship between prices. However, In the study of price and market integration, available studies on price dynamics and market marketing has to be regarded as a complex integration for fisheries are mostly focused on network of economic interactions that makes large-scale market chains in developed markets productive activities performed by a variety (Ling 2003 and Petersen and Muldoon 2007). of economic agents (no matter how widely In spite of the long history of fish culture and dispersed over time and space) interrelated the contribution of aquaculture in securing food so as to sustain a national economy (Jones and livelihood in the Philippines, only a few 1974). Thus, methodologies for evaluating studies such as Salayo (1989); Paraguas and relationships between geographically separated Garcia (2006), Salayo (2006) have been done markets that are related by trade of commodities to analyze the demand, pricing, and market and services become an area of interest among integration for aquaculture fish species in the market analysts. Univariate tools for analyzing country. price time series have been instrumental in This study attempts to fill the gap in the comparing the price movements between analysis of vertically- and spatially-related markets (Ravallion 1986). The pioneering work prices of milkfish, tilapia, and shrimp in the of Granger (1969) on the causality between Philippines in order to assist the aquaculture pairs of price series brought forth studies such farmers in defining trading options for their as Sims’ (1972) that demonstrated methods for harvests. Understanding the movements and comparing prices using two-sided distributed relationships of prices of these aquaculture lag models; Haugh’s (1976) which dealt species will also aid production and investment with cross-correlation techniques; and that of decisions in terms of intensity of operations, Pierce and Haugh (1977) on the test of market timing of stocking, harvesting, and product independence. These methods were followed by destinations. other studies that modeled market performance Our investigation on the price cointegration using structural time-series models. These of the three fish species targets both vertically- models were often found desirable as they related markets (i.e., wholesale vs. retail prices elucidated relationships among factors that in a given market), as well as horizontally- better explained price movements and influenced related markets (among wholesale markets) in production decisions. the country. The test for cointegration is used The dynamics in transmitting price to determine if these markets form part of an information from the production base to the integrated market or are spatially independent. consumption points is an important component Also, we attempt to establish exogeneity in prices of price formation. Often, the price is the most ─ that is, whether there is interdependence, important market signal that characterizes the independence or price leadership between demand and supply situation in the market.
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