Public Opinion Survey Residents of February 4 – 21, 2014

International Republican Institute Detailed Methodology

• The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The fieldwork was carried out by SIAR Research & Consulting.

• Data was collected throughout Kyrgyzstan February 4 - 21, 2014, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes.

• The sample consisted of 1,500 permanent residents of Kyrgyzstan 18 and older who are eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement.

• Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and Kish table respondent’s selection procedures. • Stage One: 16 official administrative regions were defined (seven rural areas in each region, seven urban areas in each region, and ). All were surveyed. • Stage Two: 110 primary sampling units were defined based on settlement population in rural and urban areas. Sampling units within each region were selected by the probability proportional to size sampling.

• The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.5 percent.

• Response rate was 64 percent.

• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

• Interviews were conducted in Kyrgyz, Russian and Uzbek languages.

• The survey was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development.

2 Support for Joining Russia’s Customs Union Drops Despite Government Push for Accession

International Republican Institute Do you approve of Kyrgyzstan joining the Customs Union?

February 2014 26% 23% 14% 21% 16%

February 2013 33% 29% 11% 10% 17%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Definitely approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Definitely disapprove Don't know/No Answer

4 How would you assess the current relations between Kyrgyzstan and…?

Russia 93% 2%4% 1%

Kazakhstan 79% 7% 9% 5%

Turkey 68% 4% 16% 12%

China 54% 18% 17% 10%

European Union 50% 9% 24% 16%

Japan 45% 8% 29% 18%

United States 35% 25% 24% 16%

Uzbekistan 24% 53% 15% 8%

Tajikistan 22% 54% 16% 8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Good Bad Neither good nor bad Don't know/No answer 5 Corruption Remains Pervasive Problem

International Republican Institute How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Kyrgyzstan?

February 2014 4% 33% 34% 16% 13% February 2013 4% 28% 34% 23% 11% August 2012 6% 34% 29% 16% 15% February 2012 11% 42% 30% 10% 7% September 2011 8% 34% 32% 20% 6% May 2011 4% 38% 29% 19% 10% November 2010 4% 30% 40% 21% 5% May 2010 9% 31% 38% 16% 6% May 2009 12% 46% 27% 10% 5% October 2008 6% 38% 28% 15% 13% November 2007 9% 47% 28% 8% 8% May 2007 8% 40% 31% 14% 7% October 2006 8% 48% 28% 10% 6% March 2006 10% 42% 34% 8% 6% April 2005 12% 40% 31% 12% 4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know/No answer

7 In your opinion, what are the most important issues Kyrgyzstan is facing? Three answers allowed

20% Unemployment 55% 15% Corruption 28% 10% Economic development 16% 9% Instability in the country 15% 4% Political instability/Race for power 8% 3% Low salaries 6% 3% Border issues 8% 3% % of all respondents mentioning this Kumtor mine issue 6% issue first 3% Migration 9% % of all respondents mentioning this 2% issue Rising prices/Inflation 4% 2% There are no plants/Production 5% 1% High prices 3% 1% Low social support/Low pensions 5% 1% Problems with electricity 3% 1% Crime/Drug addiction 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

8 In your opinion, what are the most important issues facing Kyrgyzstan? Three answers allowed

Unemployment Economic development Corruption 61% 57% 55% 54% 55% 55% 51% 49% 47% 48% 42% 42% 4… 39% 4…

34% 31% 38% 36% 34% 26% 33% 26% 27% 26% 30% 29% 28% 29% 28% 24% 24% 24% 25% 25% 21% 21% 21% 21% 20% 18%

16% 16% 17% 16%

May2011 April 2005 April March 2006 October2006 May2007 November2007 October2008 May2009 May2010 November2010 September2011 February2012 2012August February2013 February2014

9 Is corruption a big problem in Kyrgyzstan?

February 2014 73% 23% 1%3%

2%

February 2013 69% 24% 2% 3%

1%

August 2012 75% 18% 4% 3%

February 2012 75% 21% 1% 2%

September 2011 72% 24% 3% 1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

It is a very big issue It is a big issue It is not a big issue It is not an issue at all Don't know/No answer

10 I will read out names of different organizations. Please assess the level of corruption for each of them. In your opinion, are they corrupt, somewhat corrupt or not corrupt?

Traffic police 61% 30% 3%1% 5% Police 59% 32% 3%1% 5% Universities 58% 33% 4% 5% Office of the Prosecutor General 54% 34% 4%1% 7% Customs service 52% 33% 4%1% 10% The courts 51% 37% 5% 7% Medical institutions 48% 37% 9% 1% 5% Tax service 47% 37% 5% 2% 9% Parliament 45% 37% 7% 1% 9% Political parties 44% 40% 7% 1% 8% Financial police 44% 37% 6%1% 12% Office of the President 35% 38% 10% 2% 14% Army 32% 40% 16% 3% 9% Banks 26% 32% 20% 7% 15% Kyrgyz companies 24% 40% 15% 3% 18% Foreign companies 21% 33% 19% 6% 21%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very corrupt Somewhat corrupt Somewhat not corrupt Not corrupt at all Don't know/No answer

11 Do you think the Kyrgyz government applies enough effort to fight corruption?

February 2014 13% 77% 9% 1%

February 2013 15% 74% 10% 1%

August 2012 18% 76% 5% 1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yes, enough effort No, not enough effort Don't know/No answer Refused to reply 12 In your opinion, are people in Kyrgyzstan afraid or not to openly express their political views?

February 2014 16% 28% 33% 20% 3%

February 2013 18% 25% 28% 25% 4%

August 2012 22% 26% 22% 28% 2%

February 2012 8% 23% 29% 37% 3%

September 2011 13% 25% 27% 34% 1%

May 2011 16% 32% 32% 19% 1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid Don't know/No answer

13 Most Have Positive View of Progress on Human Rights

International Republican Institute What is your opinion on the respect for women’s rights in each of the following fields?

Feb-14 48% 38% 9% 2% 3%

Business Feb-13 38% 37% 10% 5% 10%

Feb-14 46% 38% 10% 2%4% Religion

Freedom of Freedom Feb-13 48% 38% 9% 2% 3%

Feb-14 46% 38% 10% 2%4% Life

Feb-13 43% 39% 12% 2% 4% Political and Social and Political 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Positive Somewhat positive Somewhat negative Negative Don't know/No answer

15 Does the state protect citizens’ rights regardless of their ethnicity in Kyrgyzstan?

February 2014 64% 28% 8%

February 2013 62% 30% 8%

August 2012 64% 29% 1% 6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yes, it protects on equal grounds No, not on equal grounds Other Don't know/No answer

16 Does the state protect citizens’ rights regardless of their ethnicity in Kyrgyzstan? By ethnicity

Kyrgyz 71% 21% 8%

Uzbek 40% 49% 1% 10%

Russian 49% 45% 6%

Other ethnicity 50% 42% 8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yes, it protects on equal grounds No, not on equal grounds Other Don't know/No answer

17 Mood of the Country

International Republican Institute Generally speaking, would you say that Kyrgyzstan is developing in the right direction or the wrong direction?

February 2014 49% 39% 12% February 2013 39% 48% 13% August 2012 47% 39% 14% February 2012 57% 33% 10% September 2011 50% 43% 7% May 2011 45% 44% 11% November 2010 30% 58% 12% May 2010 28% 60% 12% May 2009 63% 29% 8% October 2008 52% 38% 10% November 2007 58% 31% 11% May 2007 52% 38% 11% October 2006 62% 30% 8% March 2006 54% 37% 9% April 2005 45% 48% 8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/No answer

19 Over the last 12 months, has the economic situation in Kyrgyzstan improved, worsened or stayed the same?

February 2014 4% 31% 38% 17% 6% 4%

February 2013 2% 20% 42% 24% 8% 4%

August 2012 3% 29% 37% 23% 5% 3%

February 2012 5% 31% 42% 14% 4% 4%

September 2011 7% 33% 29% 17% 12% 1%

May 2011 1% 18% 33% 30% 16% 2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/No answer

20 Over the last 12 months, has the financial situation of your household improved, worsened or stayed the same?

February 2014 6% 32% 43% 15% 3% 1% February 2013 4% 27% 47% 14% 6% 2% August 2012 4% 30% 46% 16% 3% 1% February 2012 4% 28% 50% 14% 2% 2% September 2011 6% 31% 42% 15% 6% May 2011 2% 19% 46% 22% 11% November 2010 4% 16% 46% 23% 11% May 2010 2% 11% 56% 22% 8% 1% May 2009 8% 31% 38% 18% 5% October 2008 7% 36% 34% 15% 7% 1% November 2007 7% 34% 42% 12% 4% 1% May 2007 12% 35% 37% 11% 4% 1% October 2006 9% 32% 44% 12% 3% March 2006 7% 24% 53% 14% 2% April 2005 3% 19% 53% 19% 5% 1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/No answer

21 In your opinion, what are the most important issues your village/town is facing? Three answers allowed

24% Jobs 29% 15% Drinking water 26% 14% Poor roads 32% 6% Pollution 10% 4% Lack of kindergardens 10% 3% Problems with electricity 6% 2% Problems with public services 4% 2% % of all respondents mentioning this Low social security/Low pensions 4% issue first 2% Corruption 4% % of all respondents mentioning this 2% issue Lack of street lighting 4% 1% Lack of leisure facilities 5% 1% Agricultural problems 3% 1% Problems with irrigation water 3% 1% High prices 3% 1% Repair/Construction of schools 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

22 In your opinion, what are the most important issues households are facing? Three answers allowed

33% Low standard of living 36% 9% Jobs 18% 6% Low pension 10% 6% High prices 9% 4% Low salary 6% % of all respondents mentioning this 2% issue first Housing problems 4% % of all respondents mentioning this issue 1% Health problems 3% 1% Problems with drinking water 3% 1% Lack of kindergartens 3% 1% Corruption/Bureaucracy 2% 4% No problems 4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 23 What is your opinion of the work of each of the following institutions?

Mass media of Kyrgyzstan 50% 43% 7% Educational system 49% 27% 24% Healthcare system 49% 12% 39% Central bank 47% 43% 10% Commonwealth of Independent States 46% 15% 39% Presidency of the Kyrgyz Republic 45% 44% 11% United Nations organization 45% 25% 30% Government of the Kyrgyz Republic 44% 42% 14% Business associations 44% 38% 18% Army 44% 11% 45% Religious institutions 43% 29% 28% U.S. Agency for International Development 41% 21% 38% Trade unions 40% 50% 10% European Union 39% 18% 43% Parliament of the Kyrgyz Republic 37% 13% 50% Nongovernmental organizations 34% 50% 16% Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe 32% 11% 57% Central Election Commission 31% 12% 57% Police 30% 61% 9% Political parties 29% 58% 13% Courts 22% 64% 14% United States 20% 42% 38% NATO 20% 35% 45%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/No answer 24 What is your opinion of the Russian airbase in ?

February 2014 72% 11% 3% 14%

February 2013 68% 14% 4% 14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Positive Negative Haven't heard of it Don't know/No answer

25 What is your opinion on the U.S. transit center in Bishkek?

(The is a U.S. airbase to support military operations in Afghanistan.)

February 2014 18% 59% 6% 17%

February 2013 30% 38% 12% 20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Positive Negative Haven't heard of it Don't know/No answer

26 What was the most appreciable assistance of Russia to Kyrgyzstan after the collapse of the Soviet Union?

Financial aid 22%

Workplaces 6%

Support in building hydropower plants 5%

Provides jobs to migrants from Kyrgyzstan 5%

Humanitarian assistance 4%

Help in everything everywhere 4%

Relieve debts 3%

Airbase in Kant/Military assistance 2%

Other 4%

No help 1%

Don't know/No answer 46%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

27 Politics and Political Parties

International Republican Institute How much interest do you have in politics?

February 2014 55% 26% 13% 6%

February 2013 53% 26% 20% 1%

August 2012 59% 26% 14% 1%

February 2012 50% 30% 19% 1%

September 2011 53% 28% 18% 1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Not interested Neither interested nor uninterested Interested Don't know/No answer

29 How much interest do you have in politics?

All 55% 26% 13% 6%

Male 53% 25% 17% 5%

Female 56% 27% 10% 7%

18-29 years 57% 25% 10% 8%

30-49 years 51% 28% 14% 7%

50 years and older 57% 25% 13% 5%

Rural 54% 27% 12% 7%

Urban 53% 27% 12% 8%

Bishkek 60% 24% 15% 1%

North 69% 22% 8% 1%

South 43% 30% 15% 12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Not interested Neither interested nor uninterested Interested Don't know/No answer 30 Are you a member of a political party?

All 7% 93%

Male 8% 92%

Female 6% 93% 1%

18-29 years 5% 94% 1%

30-49 years 7% 93%

50 years and older 7% 92% 1%

Rural 8% 91% 1%

Urban 8% 92%

Bishkek 2% 98%

North 3% 97%

South 10% 89% 1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Yes No Don't know/No answer

31 Do you participate in political party activities?

Respondents who are members of political parties, n=100

18%

Yes 82% No

32 Why are you not active in politics?

Respondents who are not members of political parties or are members but do not participate in political party activities, n=1,418

I don't want to 20%

There is no need 18%

I have no time 8%

I don't trust parties/Leaders 4%

Health problems 3%

Too old for politics 3%

Nobody invited me 2%

I don't interfere with politics 1%

There is no education 1%

I don't understand politics 1%

There is no sense 1%

I would not change anything 1%

Other 6%

Don't know/No answer 31%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

33 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “It is healthy for Kyrgyzstan to have an active opposition.”

February 2014 16% 34% 24% 11% 15% February 2013 30% 29% 13% 10% 18% August 2012 31% 32% 13% 7% 17% February 2012 39% 35% 11% 6% 9% September 2011 33% 29% 21% 11% 6% May 2011 29% 38% 15% 8% 9% November 2010 26% 44% 17% 8% 6% May 2010 33% 26% 13% 23% 5% May 2009 35% 34% 15% 7% 9% October 2008 35% 35% 11% 8% 10% November 2007 32% 28% 18% 14% 8% May 2007 22% 29% 18% 22% 9% October 2006 34% 36% 16% 8% 7% March 2006 37% 37% 13% 6% 7% April 2005 40% 39% 13% 4% 4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Fully agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Fully disagree Don't know/No answer

34 What role should a political party play in society?

Main/Active role 13%

Work for the people/The state 10%

Solve problems/Fight corruption 9%

Be honest/Fair/Responsible 7%

Think of the people/The state 5%

Represent and protect interests of the people 4%

Be closer to the people 4%

Work openly and transparently 4%

Keep all promises 4%

Govern the state 3%

Listen to the people's opinions 2%

Other 15%

Don't know/No answer 32%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

35 Are you informed about political parties that exist in your region?

All 39% 56% 5%

Male 44% 51% 5%

Female 35% 59% 6%

18-29 years 33% 62% 5%

30-49 years 42% 55% 3%

50 years and older 39% 54% 7%

Rural 38% 57% 5%

Urban 49% 47% 4%

Bishkek 33% 63% 4%

North 32% 65% 3%

South 46% 47% 7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yes No Don't know/No answer

36 In your opinion, how should political parties prepare for the 2015 parliamentary elections?

Work openly and honestly 16% Hold fair elections 10% Work for the people 9% Keep promises 8% Provide the party's program during campaigning 5% Do everything to gain people's trust 3% Be closer to the people 3% Solve the people's problems 3% Attract young qualified specialists 3% Propose new ideas for the country's development 2% Listen to the people 2% Develop a stable program and realize it 2% Report to the people about the work done 2% Make the right decisions 2% Not interfere with other parties' activities 1% Other 5% Don't know/No answer 37%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

37 How much influence do each of these forms of election campaigning have on you?

Meetings with candidates 60% 37% 3%

Opinions of respected people/Meetings with them 46% 48% 6%

Articles on candidates in newspapers 38% 55% 7%

Party or candidate representative visits 34% 55% 11%

Ads on TV 33% 61% 6%

Personal letters from a candidate 25% 65% 10%

Phone calls from parties or candidates 25% 65% 10%

Paid ads on candidates or parties in newspapers 23% 69% 8%

Brochures/Pamphlets 22% 72% 6%

Radio ads 19% 73% 8%

Slogans/Text messages on vehicles 19% 75% 6%

Billboards 18% 76% 6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Strong/Certain influence Poor/No influence Don't know/No answer

38 Media

International Republican Institute Which of these channels do you use for gaining political information?

94% TV-news/Programs 93% 94% 36% Relatives/Friends 43% 33% 30% Articles in newspapers 36% 28% 25% Radio-news/Programs 25% 17% 17% Internet 12% 12% 6% Work colleagues 4% 3% 3% Meetings with politicians 3% 2% February 2014 3% Billboards/Stands in the streets 4% 3% February 2013 2% Articles in magazines 4% 1% August 2012 2% Leaflets/Other free information by mail 1% 1% 2% None 1% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 40 How often do you use the Internet?

14% Every day 11% 8%

3% February 2014 5-6 days a week 3% 2% February 2013

6% August 2012 3-4 days a week 3% 3%

6% 1-2 days a week 4% 4%

8% Less often 8% 5%

63% Never 67% 77%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

41 Where do you access the Internet?

17% At home 10% 11% 17% By phone 14% 8%

7% February 2014 At work 4% 3% February 2013

2% August 2012 Internet cafe 3% 2% 2% Friend's home 1% 1% 1% School/University 1% 1% 63% Do not use the Internet 67% 77%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

42 Demographics

Female 57%

Male 43% GENDER

18-29 years 23%

30-49 years 43% AGE 50 years and older 34%

Complete higher 24%

Incomplete higher 4%

College 2%

Secondary vocational 19% EDUCATION Secondary 47%

Incomplete secondary 4%

Muslim 87%

Orthodox 11%

Athiest 1% RELIGION Other 1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 43 Demographics

Kyrgyz 73%

Uzbek 10%

Russian 12% ETHNICITY Other 5%

Kyrgyz 63%

Russian 35%

OF THE OF LANGUAGE INTERVIEW Uzbek 2%

Bishkek 18%

Towns 19%

SIZE OF SIZE Rural areas 63% SETTLEMENT Bishkek (North) 18%

Chui (North) 16%

Issyk-Kul (North) 8%

Naryn (North) 4%

Talas (North) 4% REGIONS Osh (South) 24%

Jalal-Abad (South) 18%

Batken (South) 8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 44 Demographics

Up to 4000 som 14%

4001 - 8000 som 24%

More than 8000 som 42% INCOME

HOUSEHOLD Not applicable 20%

Employed 40%

MENT Unemployed 60%

STATUS EMPLOY Specialist 28%

Service/Trade 16%

Farmer 15%

Qualified worker/Handicraft 10%

Manager 8%

Unqualified worker 7%

White collar 6% OCCUPATION(n=592) Technician/Supervisor 5%

Other 5%

Unemployed/Looking for job 24%

Unemployed/Not looking for job 7%

Student 7%

(n=908) Retired 35%

STATUS OF UNEMPLOYED Housewife/Maternity leave 27%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 45 Demographics

Do you have any family members who If yes, how many family members? have left Kyrgyzstan in order to work and/or live abroad for a longer time?

17% 16% 17% 14% 15% 19% 19% 22% 26% 31% 28% 29% 29% 33% 32% 37% Three 25% 31% or more 33% 27% 35% 35% 34% Yes 30%

Two

No One 72% 74% 71% 59% 69% 70% 66% 67% 55% 54%

63% 48% 50% 47% 48% 50%

February2014, n=457 February2013, n=422 August2012, n=437 February2012, n=386 September2011, May2011, n=484 November2010, May2010, n=440

February 2014 February 2013 February 2012 August 2012 February 2011 September 2011 May 2010 November 2010 May

n=556 n=506

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