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Long-Term Unemployment in the Varieties of Capitalism Munich Personal RePEc Archive Long-term unemployment in the varieties of capitalism Chilosi, Alberto University of Pisa 5 March 2013 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56680/ MPRA Paper No. 56680, posted 18 Jun 2014 00:27 UTC LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE VARIETIES OF CAPITALISM Alberto Chilosi University of Pisa Via S. Andrea 48 56127 Pisa (Italy) c [email protected] Key ords: Varieties of Capitalism, Long-term unemployment, Employment protection, Economic fallacies ABSTRACT Usually, w en t e attention is focused on t e different performances of t e labour mar(et, t e overall rate of unemployment is at t e center stage. But t is is misleading: w ile s ort term unemployment can be seen as p ysiological for t e t e wor(ing of t e labour mar(et, long,term unemployment is certainly pat ological. T e paper considers ow t e different varieties of capitalism affect t e rate of long,term unemployment, rat er t an t e aggregate rate. T e liberal mar(et variety, w ere employment protection is t e lowest, presents lower rates of long,term unemployment t an t e continental .uropean and t e Mediterranean varieties. In t e latter bot employment protection and long,term unemployment are t e ig est and labour mar(et participation t e lowest. T e social, democratic Scandinavian variety gets t e best of bot worlds: low rates of long,term unemployment, ig rates of labour participation, lower degree of ine0uality, wit relatively ig levels of employment protection. 1owever t e Scandinavian model may be ardly applicable in countries, suc as t e Mediterranean ones, w ere a si2able part of public opinion apparently ad eres to t e various specifications of t e 3lump of somet ing4 economic fallacy. 5ow rates of long,term unemployment and ig levels of labour participation are also produced by t e far,.astern Asian variety, but at t e cost of a mar(edly dualistic labour mar(et structure. 2 1. INTRODUCTION T e main ob6ect of t e paper is to consider ow employment protection leads to different long,term rates of unemployment in t e different varieties of capitalism. In t e varieties of capitalism literature at t e centre stage of labour mar(et performance is t e aggregate rate of unemployment.1 But t is is misleading: t e real social and economic issue is not unemployment as suc but long,term unemployment. Indeed, s ort,term unemployment can be seen as p ysiological to t e functioning of t e labour mar(et, w ile long,term unemployment is uncontroversially pat ological. T is paper innovates, alongside a previous one centred on issues of corporate governance (C ilosi, 2012), by putting long,term unemployment instead of aggregate unemployment as suc at t e centre stage of t e comparison between t e labour mar(et performance of different varieties of capitalism. 2. EMPLOYEE PROTECTION AND REPRESENTATION, AND THE VARIETIES OF CAPITALISM A priori we may t in( t e different ways in w ic wor(ers9 interests are protected to be substitute to eac ot er: for instance mandatory representation in corporate boards or in wor( councils vs. collective trade unions rig ts or individual employee rig ts. In reality rat er t an substitution complementarity applies, different economic and institutional traditions and different social and political values ac ieving different overall levels of employee protection.2 5abour mar(et institutions, toget er wit complementary ones relating to social policy and t e economic role of t e state, or t e wor(ing of financial and commodity mar(ets, allow to distinguis different varieties of capitalism. :ollowing 1all and Sos(ice (2001), and Amable (2003) we may distinguis t e following varieties of developed capitalist economies: 1. 5iberal mar(et 2. Continental .uropean 3. Mediterranean .uropean 4. Social,democratic Scandinavian 5. .ast Asian.3 2. LONG TERM UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOUR MARKET PERFORMANCE IN THE VARIETIES OF CAPITALISM In t e tables t at follow we s ow labour mar(et outcomes, and in particular rates of long,term unemployment, for t e above varieties, as well as t e degree of employment protection, as indicated by O.CD9s aggregate employment protection index4 (averages for t e years 1991, 2007): 1 Cf. Calmors and Driffil (1988), 1all and Sos(ice (2001, p. 20); Amable (2003). Some consideration of t e issue can be found in Bec(er (2009), p. 157. 2 Cf. C ilosi (2012). 1all and Sos(ice, following Ao(i (1994), rat er t an pointing to t e different ideological and cultural bac(grounds, consider t e issue in terms of efficiency, as complementarity between institutions applies w en t e 3presence (or efficiency) of one increases t e returns (or efficiency of t e ot er)4. 3 1all and Sos(ice concentrate t eir analysis on t e dic otomy between liberal mar(et and coordinated mar(et economies, but also a separate Mediterranean variety is mentioned by t em (p. 21). 4 AUnweig ted average of version 1 sub,indicators for regular contracts (.PR_v1) and temporary contracts (.PT_v1)A, w ere .PR_v1 is Asub,indicator for dismissal of employees on regular contractsA and .PT_v1 is Asub,indicator for strictness of regulation on temporary contractsA. 3Summary indicators are on a scale from 0 (least restrictions) to 6 (most restrictions)4 (O.CD 2010). 3 Table 1. Long -term unemployment, employment protection, and the varieties of capitalism: the Liberal arket, Central European and editerranean European varietiesa). Long-term Unemployment Parti.ipation Youth long- Employment unemployment rate rate term prote.tion rate unemployment inde/ rate USA 0.5 5.4 66.1 0.6 0.21 UD 2.2 6.7 61.4 2.7 0.66 Canada 1.0 8.4 65.6 0.7 0.75 Australia 2.0 7.4 63.5 2.6 1.05 Ireland 4.5 8.4 57.4 5.5 0.98 Eew 1.3 6.5 65.2 1.6 1.15 Fealand Average 1.1 2.1 33.2 2.3 0.80 Germany 4.2 8.6 58.5 2.5 2.54 :rance 3.8 10.3 55.3 5 3.01 Belgium 4.5 8.2 51.1 6.6 2.52 Eet erlands 2.2 4.8 61.4 0.6 2.4 Austria 1.2 4.1 58.3 1.1 2.13 Average 3.2 2.2 73.1 3.2 2.72- Italy 5.8 9.8 48.1 15.8 2.69 Spain 7.3 15.5 52.4 10.9 3.31 Greece 5.1 9.6 52.1 13.3 3.27, Portugal 2.5 5.9 60.7 10.9 3.67 Average 7.2 10.2 73.3 12.2 3.28 Country averages for t e years 1991,2007. Source: I5O (2011);. last column: O.CD (2010). Table 2. Long -term unemployment, employment protection, and the varieties of capitalism: the Scandinavian, and East Asian varieties. Country Long-term Unemployment Parti.ipation Youth long- Employment unemployment rate rate term prote.tion rate unemployment inde/ rate Denmar( 1.5 6 66.1 0.8 1.71 :inland5 2.9 10.8 61.7 1.9 2.08 Sweden 1.7 7.1 64 2.3 2.44 Eorway 0.6 4.3 65.6 0.6 2.69 Average 1.2 2.1 38.8 1.8 2.23 Hapan 1 3.9 62.4 1.3 1.58 Dorea 0.1 3.5 61.2 0.1 2.32 Taiwan EA 3.1 EA EA EA Singapore 0.1 3.7 65.4 EA EA 1ong EA 4.3 61.4 EA EA Dong Average 3.2 32.3 a9Country averages for t e years 1991,2007. Source: I5O (2011);. last column: Oecd (2010). 5 :inland relatively ig rates of unemployment may be explained as a conse0uence of t e economic s oc( of losing Soviet trade after 1990. 4 Table 3. The varieties of capitalism: resilience to the crisis. Average rates of long-term unemployment in the years 2008-2011 USA 1.9 Germany 3.4 Italy 3.7 Denmar( 1.1 Hapan 1.6 UD6 2.1 :rance 3.4 Spain 5.7 :inland 1.5 Dorea 0.0 Canada 0.8 Belgium 3.6 Greece 5.5 Sweden 1.1 Australia 1.0 Eet erlands 1.1 Portugal 5.3 Eorway 0.3 Ireland 5.0 Austria 1.0 Eew 0.4 Fealand Average 1.1 Average 2.7 Average 7.1 Average 1.0 Average 0.8 Source: I5O (2012) Table 4 ,nemployment by duration: average number of months Australia Canada USA .urope G7 1991,2007 2.6 4.8 3.8 14.4 4.0 2008,2011 1.8 4.2 6.6 14.6 6.4 Source: O.CD; averages of t e two periods. EB: t e O.CD table includes only a few countries or countries aggregates. Eo singular .uropean country is included wit complete data for t e period. Partial data are available only for :inland and Eorway. :rom t e data reported in t e tables 1 and 2 above it turns out t at, wit t e notable exception of t e Scandinavian and :ar .astern varieties, w erever t ere is greater employment protection, long,term unemployment is on average ig er, and t e participation rate lower. On t e ot er and, as it could be expected, t e relation appears to be different inside t e different varieties in t e different countries, as t e impact of employment protection depends on t e specificity of t e different institutional contexts and circumstances suc as, for instance, t e extent of compliance and different 6uridical practices, or t e extent and duration of unemployment subsidies, and t e type of economic polices concretely pursued.7 5oo(ing at t e individual countries we can see t at t ere are two clear outliers: Ireland and Austria.
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