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Utah Valley Home Consortium: Housing Needs Assessment

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Utah Valley Home Consortium: Housing Needs Assessment April 2015 UTAH VALLEY HOME CONSORTIUM: HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT Prepared for: Redevelopment Agency of Provo City Corporation Prepared by: James Wood TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary of Key Findings ................................................................................................................................ 3 Demographic Trends .......................................................................................................................... 3 Economic Trends ................................................................................................................................ 4 Housing Market Conditions .............................................................................................................. 4 Housing Needs Assessment ............................................................................................................... 7 I. Demographic Trends for Utah County and Consortium Cities.............................................................. 8 Demographic Trends .......................................................................................................................... 8 Population and Household Projections ........................................................................................... 9 Natural Increase and Migration ...................................................................................................... 10 Population and Household Characteristics ................................................................................... 10 Demographic Trends of Minorities and Hispanics ...................................................................... 13 Income ................................................................................................................................................. 14 Households by Tenure, Size and Age ............................................................................................ 14 Demographic Trends of Consortium Cities ................................................................................... 16 Population Projections for Consortium Cities ............................................................................... 16 II. Economic Trends for Utah County and Consortium Cities ............................................................... 39 Employment Base ............................................................................................................................. 39 Growth Sectors .................................................................................................................................. 39 Major Employers ............................................................................................................................... 39 Employment Change and Unemployment .................................................................................... 39 Wage Rates and Household Income .............................................................................................. 39 Recent Significant Expansions ........................................................................................................ 40 Employment Forecast ....................................................................................................................... 45 III. Current Housing Market Conditions .................................................................................................... 47 Rental Market Characteristics .......................................................................................................... 47 Student Rental Market ........................................................................................................ 47 Non-student Rental Market ................................................................................................ 47 Residential Construction Trends ........................................................................................ 56 Development of Major Apartment Projects ..................................................................... 56 Rental Market Conditions ................................................................................................................. 57 Demographic Growth ........................................................................................................ 57 Net Migration ........................................................................................................................ 58 Employment Trends ........................................................................................................... 58 Rental Rate Trends .............................................................................................................. 59 Vacancy Rate Trends .......................................................................................................... 59 Projects Under Construction ............................................................................................. 60 Owner Occupied Housing in Utah County and Consortium Cities ......................................... 61 Residential Construction Trends ....................................................................................... 62 Real Estate Sales ................................................................................................................... 62 Housing Prices and Affordability ...................................................................................... 63 Foreclosures .......................................................................................................................... 67 Outlook for New Home Construction, Home Sales and Prices .................................. 68 Housing Needs Assessment for Utah Valley HOME Consortium Page 1 V. Housing Needs Assessment ...................................................................................................................... 69 Overcrowding ..................................................................................................................................... 78 Homeless Population ........................................................................................................................ 78 VITA – James Wood ....................................................................................................................................... 79 Housing Needs Assessment for Utah Valley HOME Consortium Page 2 SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS The purpose of this report is to provide a demographic, economic and housing market context for the housing needs assessment of the Utah Valley HOME Consortium. The four sections of the report are devoted to demographics trends, economic trends, housing market conditions and housing needs. The key findings for each section are summarized below: Demographics Trends ●Utah County is the fastest growing Wasatch Front County. From 2000 to 2010 the average annual growth in population was 3.46 percent. During the decade the population of the county increased by 148,000. The U.S. Census Bureau reported the population of the county at 516,000 in 2010. The 2014 population (July 1) for the county was 560,975. ●From 2000 to 2010 the number of households in Utah County increased from 100,000 to 140,000, an average annual growth rate of 3.47 percent. In 2014 the number of households in the county was 153,000. ●The minority population of Utah County has increased from 39,700 individuals in 2000 to 81,850 in 2010 as the minority share of the population grew from 10.8 percent to 15.8 percent. Hispanics account for nearly 70 percent of the minority population. Provo and Orem has the highest share of minority populations of any cities. In each city twenty-two percent of the population is minority. In Lehi only eleven percent of the population is minority. ●Utah County has the youngest population and the largest household size of any county in the state. The median age is 24.6 years and the average household size in 3.57. A young population with large families has implications for types of housing needed. ●For the past several years demographic growth has been concentrated in the northern half of the county. The three highest growth cities are Lehi, Saratoga Springs and Eagle Mountain. Since 2000 the respective increases in population have been 35,350 for Lehi, 21,750 for Saratoga Springs and 22,050 for Eagle Mountain. The combined population of the three cities has increased from 22,300 in 2000 to 101,350 in 2013. In both percent change and numeric change these three cities rank in the top five in growth. Nearly forty-five percent of the demographic growth of the county over the past thirteen years has been in these three cities. ●Since the onset of the Great Recession in 2008 the population and household growth rates have slowed in Utah County to two percent annually. The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget projects the annual population growth rate for the 2010-2020 decade to be 2.56 percent. Household growth is projected at 2.66 annually. At these rates of growth the population of Utah County will reach 668,500 by 2020 and the number of households will increase to 183,800. ●The numeric change for both population and households during the 2010-2020 decade will be approximately the same as the numeric change for population and households during the 2000-2010 decade; an increase of approximately 150,000 individuals and 40,000 households. ●The population of Provo will grow from 112,500 in 2010 to 126,400 by 2020 and the population of Orem will grow from 88,300 in
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