To: MPR's Morning Edition From: Mark Seeley, Univ. of Minnesota, Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate Subject: Minnesota WeatherTalk for Friday, August 4, 2006 HEADLINES: -July Heat -Update on Drought -Fewer Hurricanes Expected -100 F in August? -Almanac for August 4th -1866 Wisel Flood -FACE -Outlook Topic: July, 2006 will be bookmarked in memory as a hot one... The final days of July brought record heat in the form of daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature around the state. Several of these included daytime temperatures from the mid-90 F and higher and nighttime lows above 75 degrees F. Many communities reported daytime highs of 100 degrees F or greater as well... Moose Lake and Sandy Lake on July 29th....100 degrees F Thief River Falls and Alexandria on July 30th....100 degrees F Moorhead on July 30th reported a record daily high of 104 degrees F Marshall and Red Wing on July 31st.....100 degrees F St Cloud, MSP Airport, and Redwood Falls on the 31st.....101 degrees F Wheaton on the 31st reported a record daily high of 104 degrees F Browns Valley on the 31st....107 degrees F, just missed their record Heat Advisories were released by the National Weather Service as the Heat Index values ranged from 100 to 112 degrees F in many places. The National Weather Service in La Crosse, WI measured temperatures inside of a parked car (windows up) up to 124 degrees F on the 31st. Overall July of 2006 ranked as the 5th hottest on a statewide basis, exceeded only by 1901, 1935, 1916, and 1936. For Duluth it was the warmest month on record dating all the way back to 1870, while for the Twin Cities it was the third hottest July, trailing both 1935 and 1936. For many other communities around the state July was in the top five historically. As a consequence, irrigation water use was very high, along with power usage for air conditioning. Interestingly enough, the Meteorological Office in the United Kingdom reported that this July was the hottest ever there as well. Water restrictions were in place during most of the month. Topic: Despite recent rains drought concerns prevail in MN.... The second meeting of the State Drought Task Force was held this week on Tuesday, August 1st. Over 40 people attended. file:///G|/2006/WeatherTalk_2006_08_04.txt[9/22/2015 4:00:30 PM] The USDA/NOAA Drought Mitigation Center placed portions of northwestern, north-central and east-central in a D-3 category this week, implying Extreme Drought with both agricultural and hydrological impacts. Much of the balance of the state falls into the D-2 (Severe Drought) or D-1 (Moderate Drought) class. Only a small portion of south-central and southeastern Minnesota was classified as abnormally dry (D-0). Greg Spoden of the DNR-State Climatology Office showed rainfall deficits and relative rankings around the state since mid-May. Through July 31st, many areas are well short of historical averages, some by up to 4 to 8 inches. The USGS hydrologists, District Army Corps, and NOAA River Forecast Center hydrologists showed the sharp declines in reservoir levels and river stages that have taken place throughout the month of July. Though recent showers have helped to bump river stages to higher levels, they will likely recede rapidly with the onset of a forecasted warm and dry spell after the 7th of August (conveyed by the National Weather Service outlooks). So from a hydrologic standpoint the worst may not be over in terms of impacts on watersheds, low flows will remain a concern. Animation of the watershed status around Minnesota can be viewed at the State Climatology web site under... http://134.84.160.120/dow/weekly_stream_flow/sfcycle.htm USDA-Farm Service Agency reported that at least 38 counties intend to petition for emergency status through the federal program. Most are located in the northern half of the state, where crop yield reductions are intially estimated to run from 30 to 70 percent. The State Emergency Board will consider these cases at their meeting next Tuesday (August 8th). Best Management Practices (BMPS) are being emphasized to encourage water conservation in many cities and rural communities, as flow levels may approach critical levels on some watersheds. Irrigators are seeking permission to increase summer allocations. The Twin Cities are continuing to emphasize water conservation best management practices when it comes to domestic and landscape uses, but city officials have not yet triggered mandatory water restrictions. We should remember that drought rarely reverses itself abruptly. More often than not, history shows a gradual return to average hydrologic and soil moisture conditions. Topic: Fewer hurricanes expected this year..... Dr. William Gray and his staff at Colorado State University are noted for their seasonal hurricane forecasting expertise. They announced this week, that they expect fewer Atlantic Basin hurricanes this year, reducing their forecasted number from nine to seven as a result of cooler ocean temperatures than expected and increased wind shear potential at high altitudes. So far there have only been only three named storms in the Atlantic, Alberto, Beryl, and Chris. file:///G|/2006/WeatherTalk_2006_08_04.txt[9/22/2015 4:00:30 PM] MPR listener question: With most of August ahead of us what is the historical frequency of 100 degrees F in this month versus last month here in the Twin Cities? Answer: Since 1891, 100 degrees F or greater temperatures have been recorded during 23 July months in the Twin Cities, a frequency of about 20 percent of all Julys. Over the same period only 4 August months have seen 100 degrees F temperatures, a frequency of about 3 percent, thus a very small probability exists that we will see another 100 F day. Interestingly enough, there has only been one year that brought a 100 F day in the month of September, that of September 10, 1931 when the mercury hit 104 degrees F. Twin Cities Almanac for August 4th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 83 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 62 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation). MSP Local Records for August 4th: MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 102 degrees F in 1947; lowest daily maximum temperature of 64 degrees F in 1915 and 1952; lowest daily minimum temperature of 48 F in 1978; highest daily minimum temperature of 76 F in 1947; record precipitation of 2.65 inches in 1941. The Heat Index on this date in 1947 was a record 109 degrees F. Average dew point for August 4th is 59 degrees F, with a maximum of 74 degrees F in 1959 and a minimum of 37 degrees F in 1923. All-time state records for August 4th: The state record high temperature for this date is 106 degrees F\ at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1947; the state record low temperature for this date is 29 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1972; the state record rainfall to today's date is 6.00 inches at St Francis (Anoka County) in 2002. From "Minnesota Weather Almanac" (available in bookstores): This Sunday marks the 140 Anniversary of the Wisel Flood in southeastern Minnesota. On August 6, 1866 a stationary weather front parked over southern Minnesota generated thunderstorms that produced up to 10.30 inches of rainfall in Sibley County. St Paul weather observers reported a rise of 4 feet in the Mississippi River. Many other areas of south-central and southeastern Minnesota received enormous amounts of rainfall as well. In Fillmore County tragedy struck as the Root River near present day Lanseboro rose so rapidly with the flash flooding that it swept away 30 pionner settlers to their death. Among them were members of the Wisel family in Preble Township, thus the storm took on the name of the Wisel Flood. The town of Houston was completely submerged and the nearby railroad tracks were under 7-8 feet of water. file:///G|/2006/WeatherTalk_2006_08_04.txt[9/22/2015 4:00:30 PM] Word of the Week: FACE Another acronym used in scientific endeavors, this one stands for Free-Air Concentration Enrichment (FACE) technology. Studies of the effects of increasing greenhouse gases on crop production have been facilitated by using FACE technology to grow plants in open-air fields but with increased levels of carbon dioxide to mimic what might be the levels in the Earth's atmosphere by the year 2050. A system of tubes inject gases into the crop canopies as they grow and develop. At the University of Illinois they have been studying the combined effects of increased carbon dioxide levels, generally a crop yield booster, with increased ozone levels, generally a crop yield detractor. They are finding that the changing composition of the Earth's atmosphere may have a smaller fertilization effect on crops than previously thought. (Science magazine, June 30 issue). Outlook: Warm and more humid on Saturday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the northern and western sections during the day, and then statewide at night. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Lingering chance for showers on Sunday in the south and east. Cooler temperatures for Monday and Tuesday, with drier air. A warming trend by Wednesday next week, with a chance for showers during mid week. file:///G|/2006/WeatherTalk_2006_08_04.txt[9/22/2015 4:00:30 PM] To: MPR's Morning Edition From: Mark Seeley, Univ. of Minnesota, Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate Subject: Minnesota WeatherTalk for Friday, January 6, 2006 HEADLINES: -World weather highlights for the start of the New Year -Gloomy weather in Minnesota -Anniversary of the 1873 blizzard -Question about small daily temperature ranges -Almanac for January 6th -What's cowshee and kaus? -Outlook Topic: World weather headlines from the first week of 2006...