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Extended Range Forecast for Gujarat Region, Saurashtra-Kutch and Diu, Daman, Dadar Nagar Havelli

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Extended Range Forecast for Gujarat Region, Saurashtra-Kutch and Diu, Daman, Dadar Nagar Havelli भारत सरकार GOVERNMENT OF INDIA INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग प镍ृ िी विज्ञान मंत्राऱय MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCE मौसमकेन्द्र METEOROLOGICAL CENTER हिाई अ蕍डा AIRPORT अहमदाबाद AHMEDABAD गुजरात- 382475 GUJARAT-382475 टेऱफोन/ फै啍स-079-22865449 Phone/Fax: 079-22865449= डब्ल्यू. इस:001 (इऱ.इफ़.सी)E-mail:[email protected], [email protected] W.S.Date::001(L 23. -F09. C-) 2021 Website:www.imdahm.gov.in Extended range forecast for Gujarat region, Saurashtra-Kutch and Diu, Daman, Dadar Nagar Havelli Current weather status for last week (16th September to 22nd September 2021)& outlook for next two weeks (24th September to 07th October 2021) 1) Realized weather (16th September to 22nd September 2021): 1.1) Main Features Monsoon was vigorous over Gujarat region on 21st September 2021. Monsoon was active over the State during 16th September 2021, over Gujarat region on 20th September 2021 , active over Saurashtra-Kutch on 21st September 2021. Extremely heavy rainfall occurred at isolated places in Dadara Nagar Haveli on 21st September 2021. Very heavy rainfall occurred at isolated places in the district of South Gujarat region namely Narmada on 20th September 2021,in the district of Gujarat region namely Panchmahal, Chhota Udepur and Valsad on 21st September 2021. Heavy rainfall occur at isolated places in Surat districts of South Gujarat on 15th September 2021 ; in the districts of North Gujarat region namely Panchmahal and Mahisagar and in the districts of Saurashtra namely Dwarka on 16th Septemebr 2021, in the districts of Saurashtra namely Bhavnagar and Rajkot on 17th September 2021 , in the districts of North Gujarat region namely Dahod and Mahisagar & in Surendranagar district of Saurashtra on 18th September 2021 , in the districts of Gujarat region namely Kheda, Ahmedabad, Chhota 1 Udepur & Surat on 20th September 2021, in the districts of Gujarat region namely Bharuch, Narmada, Vadodara, Surat, Chhota Udepur and Valsad & in the district of Saurashtra namely Rajkot and Junagadh on 21st Septemebr 2021. Week’s rainfall for the week ending on 22/09/2021 Season’s rainfall for the period from 01-06-21 to 22-09-2021 1.1) DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL: REGION/DATE 16.09.2021 17.09.2021 18.09.2021 19.09.2021 20.09.2021 21.09.2021 22.09.2021 NORTH / SOUTH SCT/ WS FWS/FWS SCT/ FWS FWS/ SCT FWS/FWS FWS/WS WS/ WS GUJARAT SAURASHTRA/ SCT/ DRY WS/DRY FWS/ ISOL ISOL/ SCT ISOL/SCT ISOL/SCT FWS/ DRY KUTCH Legends: Dry: No rain, ISOL: At isolated places, SCT: At a few places, FWS: at many places, WS: at most places 2 2)Chief synoptic conditions: 2.1 Chief synoptic condition 16th to 22nd September 2021: Monsoon trough at mean sea level passed through Dwarka, Ahmedabad, centre of Well-marked Low Pressure Area over central parts of north Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood, Sidhi, Daltonganj, Balasore and thence southeast wards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal extending up to 0.9 km above mean sea level on 16th September 2021; passed through Phalodi, Ajmer, centre of Well-Marked Low Pressure Area over northwest Madhya Pradesh & adjoining southwest Uttar Pradesh, Sidhi, Jamshedpur, Digha and thence south eastwards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal and extends up to 0.9 km above mean sea level on 17th September; passed through Bikaner, centre of Low Pressure Area over northwest Madhya Pradesh & adjoining East Rajasthan, Satna, Daltonganj, Jamshedpur, Digha and thence southeastwards to northeast Bay of Bengal on 18th Septemebr; passed through Jaisalmer, Ajmer, centre of Low Pressure Area over East Rajasthan & adjoining West Madhya Pradesh, Sidhi, Daltonganj and thence south-eastwards to northeast Bay of Bengal and extends upto 0.9 km above mean sea level on 19th September. A trough ran from Northwest Arabian Sea to the cyclonic circulation associated with the Well-marked Low Pressure Area over central parts of north Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood across Gujarat and East Rajasthan extending up to 3.1 km above mean sea level on 16th September; it Persisted on 17th September and seen at 1.5 km above mean sea level on 17th Septemeber, became less marked on 18th Septemebr. Cyclonic circulation seen over south Gujarat Region & neighbourhood extending up to 3.1 km above mean sea level on 15th September merged with the above trough on 16th September. A Low Pressure Area lay over northwest Madhya Pradesh & adjoining East Rajasthan with the associated cyclonic circulation extending up to 5.8 km above mean sea level on 18thSepetember , lay over central parts of East Rajasthan & adjoining West Madhya Pradesh with the associated cyclonic circulation extending up to 5.8 km above mean sea level on 19th September, became less marked on 20thSeptember, however the cyclonic circulation lay over East Rajasthan & neighbourhood extending up to 4.5 km above mean sea level persisted on 3 21st September up to 3.1 km above mean sea level, lay over West Rajasthan & neighbourhood extending up to 3.1 km above mean sea level on 22nd September. A trough ran from cyclonic circulation over East Rajasthan to Northeast Arabian Sea across Gujarat at 3.1 km above mean sea level on 20th September, became less marked on 21st Septemebr. 2.2 Chief synoptic conditions as on 23rd September 2021: Cyclonic circulation over West Rajasthan & neighbourhood now lies over Southwest Rajasthan & neighbourhood and extends up to 4.5 km above mean sea level tilting southwestwards with height. 3) Large scale features 3.1 Currently, neutral ENSO conditions are prevailing over equatorial Pacific region. The latest MMCFS forecast indicates cool neutral ENSO conditions likely to continue for next few seasons. 3.2 At present, negative IOD conditions are present over Indian Ocean and the latest MMCFS forecast indicates these negative IOD conditions likely to continue till OND season. 3.3 • The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index currently lies in Phase 4 with amplitude more than 1. It is likely to meander in Phase 4 with reduced amplitude (<1) during week 1. Then it is likely to propagate eastwards and enter Phase 5 from the beginning of week 2 & further into Phase 6 towards the end of week 2 with amplitude remaining less than 1. Thus the MJO phase will support enhancement of convective activity over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the forecast period. 4) Forecast for next two weeks(24th September to 07th October 2021) (4.1) Rainfall forecast for week I: (24th September to 30th September 2021) Cumulatively, excess rainfall likely in Saurashtra Kutch and normal rainfall likely over Gujarat region subdivisions during week I. During week 1 likely chances of fairly wide spread to wide spread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall events in Gujarat region and Saurashtra Kutch Subdivisions. 4 (4.1) Rainfall forecast for week II: (01st October to 07th October 2021) 5 Cumulatively, normal rainfall likely in the Gujarat region and Saurashtra Kutch subdivisions during week II and compared to week 1 expecting slight reduction in rainfall and isolated heavy rainfall events likely in parts of South Gujarat region and coastal Saurashtra districts. 5) Probability of Cyclogenesis (formation of depression) over north Indian Ocean. Week1: 24.09.2021-30.09.2021 Week2: 01.10.2021-07.10.2021 As on today, a cyclonic circulation persists over Myanmar coast & adjoining Gulf of Martaban. It is likely to move northwestwards and emerge into east-central & adjoining northeast BoB. Under its influence, an LPA is likely to form over the same region during 24th evening. It is likely to move west-northwestwards towards Odisha coast during the subsequent 48 hours. There is also likelihood of development of another cyclonic circulation over east- central BoB during the second half of week 1 with a near similar pattern of movement as the previous one. Probability of cyclogenesis is NIL over the region during the forecast period. Next bulletin will be issued on 30th September 2021. 6 .
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