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Home , Cedric Richmond, Cleo Fields, Cynthia Lummis, David Perdue, Helena Moreno, Jared Brossett

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Control of the Senate Control of the Senate 116th Congress 117th Congress* 116th Congress 117th Congress* 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats 50 Republicans, 48 Demcrats 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats 50 Republicans, 48 Demcrats 2020 Elections DECEMBER 3, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 23 Seat Change *Upcoming Races (Jan. 5) 2020 Elections D +1 * () Seat Change Georgia (Kelly Loeffl er) D +1 * Georgia Senate Runoffs: States that Flipped New Senators Democrat to Republican , R, States that Switched Party Hands Alabama (Doug Jones) , D, Beagles and Stock Trades Democrat to Republican Republican to Democrat , D, Colorado Alabama (Doug Jones) Colorado (Cory Gardner) Republican to Democrat Roger Marshall, R, Kansas and Police, Oh My! Arizona (Martha McSally) Colorado (Cory Gardner) Ben Ray Luján, D, New Mexico By Jacob Rubashkin Arizona (Martha McSally) , R, Tennessee Upcoming Races (Jan. 5) The outcome of Georgia’s two Senate runoffs on will , R, determine which party controls the U.S. Senate, and whether President- Georgia (David Perdue) elect has any chance of enacting the kind of legislative agenda Georgia (Kelly Loeffl er) Democrats have long envisioned. the voters that show up on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in With such high stakes, neither party is sparing any expense to win November. In 2018, turnout was 61 percent in November but just 23 New Senators these overtime contests. With a month to go before Election Day, the percent in the December runoffs for Secretary of State and Public Service Tommy Tuberville, R, Alabama four candidates and their outside allies have spent or reserved over $322 Commissioner; in 2008, turnout in November was 65 percent and fell to million in TV ads, per data from Kantar/CMAG, a figure that is sure to 37 percent in that December’s Senate runoff. Mark Kelly, D, Arizona increase as January approaches. Rather than spend time and resources on persuasion — trying John Hickenlooper, D, Colorado Previously, Inside Elections explored the history of runoffs in Georgia, to convince undecided voters to back a candidate or peel off voters Roger Marshall, R, Kansas as well as the major players in this year’s runoff elections. This week, from the opposition — the four campaigns are largely focused on Ben Ray Luján, D, New Mexico we’re taking a look at the major issues being litigated by the four Senate boosting turnout among voters that already support them, but may not campaigns. necessarily turn out to vote in a January election. Bill Hagerty, R, Tennessee As such, none of the candidates are executing traditional pivots to the Cynthia Lummis, R, Wyoming The Cast (A Refresher) center one might expect in an evenly divided state. Instead, both sides On Jan. 5, Georgians will vote in two different Senate races. are focused on driving up turnout among their respective bases, and *Two Georgia races oustanding. The first is the regular election, between GOP Sen. David Perdue and driving down turnout among their opponents’. documentary filmmaker Democrat . On Nov. 3, Perdue won 49.7 percent of the vote to Ossoff’s 48 percent; the race is headed to a A Nationalized Contest runoff because neither candidate received a majority. Both parties have embraced the nationalization of the races, a break The second is the special election to fill the remainder of former GOP from this cycle’s other competitive Senate contests in states such as Sen. ’s term. It is between GOP Sen. , who Montana, Kansas, Alaska, and South Carolina, where Democratic was appointed to Isakson’s seat a year ago, and Democrat Raphael candidates sought to distance themselves from the national party. Warnock, senior pastor at the historic in . Republicans are running explicitly to “Save the Senate,” positioning Loeffler and Warnock both appeared, along with two dozen other themselves as a bulwark against full Democratic control of Congress and candidates, on an all-party “jungle primary” ballot on Nov. 3, and are potentially Washington, DC. A series of ads from Loeffler and Perdue headed to the runoff because they were the top two vote-getters of the field. warn of the , radicalism, rioting and myriad mayhem that will envelop the country if Democrats take the Senate. To drive home the The Issues point, the two senators have made use of a campaign bus emblazoned It’s a tired cliché that elections come down to turnout, but in the with the slogan “Win Georgia. Save America.” case of runoffs, it’s largely true. Overtime elections attract a fraction of Continued on page 6

InsideElections.com

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM December 3, 2020 1 How Biden Rebuilt the Blue Wall By Ryan Matsumoto

In 2016, shocked the world by raw vote margin was 54,310 votes better than Clinton’s, the biggest flipping three “Blue Wall” states that had voted net vote swing from 2016 to 2020 statewide. Oakland County includes Democratic in every presidential election since parts of Michigan’s 8th and 11th congressional districts - two districts 1988: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Democrats flipped in the 2018 midterm elections and held Although carried these states this year. by comfortable margins in 2008 and 2012, Key Suburban Trump narrowly carried each of them by Counties Pennsylvania less than 1 percentage point. In Pennsylvania, Biden performed In 2020, the task was clear for Joe in Wisconsin very well in the four suburban Biden and the Democrats. The most collar counties around straightforward path to the presidency (Delaware, was to rebuild the “Blue Wall” by Chester, Montgomery, and winning back those three states that were Bucks). Collectively, these Trump’s narrowest victories in 2016. counties voted for Obama by And that’s exactly what they did. 10 points in 2012, for Clinton by 14 points in 2016, and for Biden Democratic Gains in the Suburbs by 19 percentage points in 2020. In the primaries, many Democrats viewed Biden as While Clinton’s raw vote margin the most electable Democrat who could rebuild the “Blue in these counties was 188,353 votes, Wall” by winning back white working class Obama-Trump Biden’s raw vote margin was 293,273 voters in rural America. But in the end, the key to Biden’s votes. That 104,920 vote difference was victory was making inroads in highly-educated suburbs actually greater than Biden’s statewide in major metropolitan areas that were already trending margin of victory of 80,555 votes. It is fair Democratic, rather than winning back GOP-trending areas. to say that Biden’s gains with college- These were the same types of places that powered Democrats’ educated voters in the Philadelphia successful quest to win back the House in 2018. suburbs made the difference in the Keystone State. Wisconsin In Wisconsin, Biden made strong gains in crucial Waukesha County, a The Bottom Line traditionally Republican suburban county outside Milwaukee. Waukesha In their efforts to challenge the results of the election, the Trump voted for Trump by 27 points in 2016 but only voted for Trump by 21 campaign has focused on the heavily Democratic cities of Milwaukee, points in 2020. In neighboring Ozaukee County, Biden reduced Trump’s Detroit, and Philadelphia. But in reality, these cities were not what made winning margin from 19 points in 2016 to just 12 points in 2020. Ozaukee the difference in this election. Trump actually slightly reduced his losing and Waukesha are the second and third Wisconsin counties ranked by margin in each of these cities compared to four years ago. percentage of adults with a college degree. Rather, what made the difference was a storyline we’ve talked about since day one of the Trump presidency. Although Trump made Michigan surprising gains with minority voters and maintained the support of In Michigan, Biden did very well in Oakland County, a large the vast majority of white working class Obama-Trump voters, it was suburban county outside Detroit. While won Oakland Biden’s historic margins in the suburbs that powered his reconstruction County by 8 points in 2016, Biden won it by 14 points in 2020. Biden’s of the “Blue Wall.”

Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] .com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin

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2 December 3, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH 2 Special: Brawl on the Blue Bayou By Jacob Rubashkin

President-elect Joe Biden’s decision to bring Democratic Rep. with him to the as a senior adviser sets up what is likely to be the first special election of 2021. With Democrats’ House majority much diminished, even a handful of vacancies could make legislating fraught with difficulty in the early days of the Biden administration, and Biden has stated publicly his reticence to appoint members of the House and Senate to executive branch positions. Louisiana’s But the elevation of Richmond, an early backer of Biden’s 2nd Congressional who served as his national campaign co-chairman, will likely be District a straightforward, relatively painless process. With one notable exception (more on that later), the seat is safely Democratic, and the Democratic governor of Louisiana has signaled he will not delay the special election to replace Richmond. As the Pelican State has become more and more Republican, opportunities for ambitious Democratic politicians have grown more scarce. An open, safe congressional seat presents a chance at advancement to the national stage at a moment when such chances are few and far between. And on the most basic level, this special election will produce a new lawmaker on Capitol Hill.

The Lay of the Land The 2nd District stretches in a crescent from up north and west to Baton Rouge, encompassing parts of 10 parishes (the state’s county equivalent). Roughly 78 percent of the district’s population lives uses this system for regular elections as well as in the New Orleans metropolitan area, while 21 percent lives in the Baton special elections (Georgia, Mississippi, Texas, and use Rouge metro area, per Elections. it for some special elections). It is the only district represented by a Democrat in Louisiana (despite However, for a brief period from 2008 to 2010, Louisiana reverted to a 40 percent of the state voting for Joe Biden). It was drawn in 2010 more conventional closed primary system in which each party separately as a vote-sink for Black Louisianans; one-third of Louisiana’s Black selected a nominee to go head-to-head on election day. population lives within its boundaries, with the rest spread out across the As it happened, that switch set the stage for one of the biggest upsets five other districts in the state. Nearly 61 percent of the district’s residents in Louisiana political history. are Black, the fourth-highest of any district in the country. The district is In 2008, longtime Democratic Rep. Bill Jefferson faced federal bribery 28 percent non-Hispanic white, 7 percent Hispanic, and 3 percent Asian. charges stemming from a long-running corruption investigation. In the At the presidential level, the 2nd is solidly blue. According to data Democratic primary, he faced six challengers — including future Rep. from Daily Kos Elections, it voted for Hillary Clinton 75 percent to 22 Richmond — and was forced into a runoff with newscaster Helena percent in 2016 and for Obama 76 percent to 23 percent in 2012. This year, Moreno, who he defeated 57-43 percent. it gave Biden 76 percent of the vote to Trump’s 23 percent, according to In the general election, Jefferson faced Republican , a John Couvillon, a Louisiana-based pollster and demographer. Vietnamese immigrant and New Orleans attorney, and in a major upset, At the state level, it is clear just how important the 2nd District is to Cao defeated Jefferson 50-47 percent. Cao became the first Republican to Democrats. In 2015, en route to a 13-point romp in the governor’s race, represent the district since 1891, and was heralded by House Minority Democrat swept five of six congressional districts, Leader as the future of the Republican Party. including an 83-17 percent win in the 2nd District. Four years later, Edwards But in 2010, Cao was resoundingly defeated by Richmond, 65-33 won a much narrower 3-point victory, losing five of six districts but winning percent, even as his party picked up 63 seats nationwide. off his strength in the 2nd District, which he carried 84-16 percent. In 2012, Louisiana reverted back to its old runoff system. Richmond has never been forced into a runoff election, having never received less Elections, Cajun-Style than 55 percent of the vote. Just two Republicans have run for this seat Louisiana conducts its congressional elections using a two-phase over the past five cycles; both maxed out around 15 percent. runoff system. All candidates from all parties appear on the same ballot on Election Day; if one candidate receives an absolute majority of votes cast, The Emerging Democratic Field they win outright. If no candidate receives a majority, the top two vote- The biggest news so far is who isn’t running for this seat. Former getters proceed to a runoff. Louisiana is the only state in the country that Continued on page 4

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM December 3, 2020 3 Continued from page 3 gubernatorial runoff since Reconstruction. He lost to Republican Mike New Orleans Mayor , scion of one of Louisiana’s most Foster 63-37 in a 1995 campaign that saw him promote a more centrist, storied political dynasties, and current New Orleans Mayor LaToya race-neutral brand of politics than he had previously practiced. Though Cantrell both have declined to pursue the seat. (Landrieu was never seen historic, Fields’ run made him powerful enemies: in the first round, as a likely contender, with Democrats believing the former lieutenant Fields narrowly defeated future Sen. in a nasty campaign governor would only re-enter politics to compete for the state’s top job or that saw Fields accuse Landrieu of telling voters not to vote for him a Senate seat.) because he was Black. That leaves the field relatively open, with a half-dozen or more Landrieu did not potential candidates poised to enter the race, including several who have endorse Fields in the sought the seat before. runoff. Two candidates have already declared: state Sen. Karen Carter Moreno, who is Peterson, who recently completed two terms as the chairwoman of the white and Hispanic, is Louisiana Democratic Party, and state Sen. , both of New a 43-year-old former Orleans. New Orleans-area Peterson previously ran for this seat in 2006. At that time, Jefferson TV journalist and the was under FBI investigation but not yet indicted. Peterson was backed first Hispanic city by the state party, and took second place in the first round, forcing Courtesy campaign council president. She Karen Carter Peterson Jefferson into a runoff. She lost that race 57-43 percent. It was a stunning previously served result, considering Jefferson was thought to be politically dead after the as a state representative from 2010 to 2018. She ran against then-Rep. FBI found $90,000 cash in his freezer the year before. Jefferson in 2008’s closed Democratic primary, forcing him into a runoff Peterson has served in public office since 1999, first in the state House which saw her garner 43 percent, about as good as Peterson, the former and since 2010 in the state Senate. Peterson sometimes clashed with the state party chairwoman, did in her 2006 run against Jefferson. And as more conservative Gov. Edwards on abortion and gambling issues. An the former state chairwoman of ’s presidential campaign, attorney by trade, Peterson is of counsel to the global energy sector at Moreno has a powerful ally in Washington. Dentons, the multinational law firm. Additionally, state Sen. Jimmy Harris of New Orleans could be a Carter has run for the seat twice before, in 2006 and 2008. In 2006 he formidable candidate. A former staffer in Richmond’s congressional office, placed fifth in the first round, with 12 percent of the vote. In 2008, he Harris won a 2015 race for state House with Richmond’s endorsement. finished in sixth place with 8 percent. Though Richmond signalled to that he would “play an Now the state active role” in the race, he has competing loyalties to several potential Senate Minority candidates in the running. Leader, Carter has At this early juncture, one thing is certain: this field will be crowded. served in various In addition to the names above, state Reps. Royce Duplessis, Randal offices at the city and Gaines, and Kyle Green, state Sen. Joseph Bouie, New Orleans state level since first Councilmen and Jay Banks, former St. John the Baptist winning a seat in the Parish President Natalie Robottom, and Public Service Commissioner state House in 1992, at Lambert Boisierre are all reportedly considering runs. one point representing the French Quarter on Republicans? the New Orleans City Troy Carter Courtesy Office of Sen. Unlike in 2008, there’s virtually no possibility that a Republican Troy Carter Council and placing could seriously compete for this seat. It took a combination of damning fifth in the 2002 mayoral election. Carter has also founded three gourmet evidence against Jefferson and a brief experiment with closed primaries coffee shops, a business consultancy, and a real estate management firm. for Cao to win his race. Under the current system, there are so few Other major potential candidates are former US Rep. , who Republican voters that the odds of a Republican candidate placing in the represented a Baton Rouge-area congressional district in the early 1990s, top two are vanishingly small. Even if one did, they would stand little was the Democratic candidate for governor in 1995, and now serves in chance in a runoff given the severe partisan lean of the district. the state Senate; and , the current president of the . How It Plays Out Fields, now 58, went to Washington at just 30 years old and was the Gov. Edwards has not yet set a date for the special election, but youngest member of the 103rd Congress (he had previously been the Louisiana has regularly scheduled municipal elections on March 20 and youngest-ever Louisiana state senator at 24). As a representative, he had April 24, which will be an attractive landing spot for this race. a liberal reputation and received high marks from NARAL, the NAACP, With two candidates already in and several more expected, outside the ACLU, and various labor unions, and corresponding low grades observers believe this race will head to a runoff, with no candidate from the Chamber of Commerce, the American Conservative Union, receiving a majority in the first round. and the National Taxpayers Union, among other conservative groups. In Two potential storylines to watch as the contest unfolds are Congress, he had a particular focus on early education, and now serves geography and race. as the chairman of the education committee in the state Senate. The district has two population centers but dominated by the larger Fields was also the first Black candidate to make a Louisiana Continued on page 5

4 December 3, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 4 one, New Orleans. This dynamic makes it difficult for politicians from Control of the House 116th Congress 117th Congress the Baton Rouge area or the River Parishes (St. Charles, St. James, and St. 233 Democrats, 201 Republicans, TBD John the Baptist) to seriously compete districtwide. 1 Libertarian The exception is likely Fields, the former congressman and current state 2020 Elections legislator. One longtime Louisiana Democratic consultant says Fields is the Seat Change Projected Range only Baton Rouge-area politician who could contest this seat, due to his R +10 R +10-12 stature as a former member of Congress and his gubernatorial candidacy. Republicans need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority However, a Fields candidacy may also dredge up corruption Districts that Flipped Party Hands Democrat Republican Independent accusations from over two decades ago. In 1997, Fields, then out of office, to Republican to Democrat to Republican was taped taking $25,000 in cash from former Gov. , and California’s 21st Georgia’s 7th Michigan’s 3rd was listed as an unindicted co-conspirator when federal agents brought California’s 39th ’s 2nd Edwards up on corruption charges. Fields was never charged or officially California’s 48th North Carolina’s 6th accused of wrongdoing. Florida’s 27th Robottom, the former St. John the Baptist Parish president who Florida’s 26th Iowa’s 1st just completed 10 years in that role, could also upend the geographic Minnesota’s 7th dynamics of the race if she runs. In comments made to L’observateur at New Mexico’s 2nd the beginning of the year, Robottom signalled she was not interested in New York’s 11th seeking higher office. But that may have changed in the intervening year. Oklahoma’s 5th Moreno, the New Orleans City Council president, is the only potential South Carolina’s 1st Utah’s 4th major candidate who is white, and would be looking to follow in the Uncalled Races Categorized by Leading Party footsteps of the late Rep. , the only other white woman who Republican Flips from Democrat Democratic represented this majority-Black district, in the 1980s. Holds to Republican Holds While outside observers agree that any white candidate faces an uphill Iowa’s 2nd climb here, Moreno appears best-suited to the task. Her role as city council New York’s 22nd president gives her a unique platform at a time when Democrats in the New House Members , R, Alabama's 1st , R, Minnesota's 7th state legislature are somewhat marginalized given their steep minority. Barry Moore, R, Alabama's 2nd , D, Missouri's 1st Both Moreno and Peterson may benefit from the gender breakdown , R, California's 8th , R, Montana At-Large of the electorate. According to the state Secretary of State, 57 percent of voters in the 2020 election in the 2nd District were female, compared to , R, California’s 21st , R, New Mexico's 2nd just 43 percent male. , R, California's 39th , D, New Mexico's 3rd Peterson also has a wealth of connections and relationships , R, California's 48th , R, New York’s 2nd from her near-decade as state party chairwoman and her tenure as , R, California's 50th , R, New York's 11th a vice chairwoman of civic engagement and voter participation of , D, California's 53rd , D, New York's 15th the Democratic National Committee, including ties to former DNC , R, Colorado's 3rd , D, New York's 16th chairwoman and Louisiana native Donna Brazile, and former Georgia , R, Florida's 3rd , D, New York's 17th gubernatorial nominee . Scott Franklin, R, Florida's 15th Deborah Ross, D, North Carolina's 2nd Moreno and Peterson are on opposite sides of the December 5 runoff , R, Florida's 19th , D, North Carolina's 6th for Orleans Parish District Attorney. Peterson, along with five of seven city Carlos Giménez, R, Florida's 26th , R, North Carolina's 11th council members (including potential 2nd District candidates Jay Banks , R, Florida's 27th , R, Oklahoma's 5th and Jared Brossett), has endorsed Judge Keva Landrum. Moreno is the , D, Georgia's 5th , R, Oregon's 2nd sole member of the council to support Jason Williams, who serves with , D, Georgia's 7th , R, South Carolina's 1st her as an at-large representative. If Williams, who is running to the left of , R, Georgia's 9th , R, Tennessee's 1st Landrum, wins, he could be an important ally for Moreno if she runs for , Georgia's 14th , R, Texas' 4th Congress. , D, Hawaii's 2nd August Pfl uger, R, Texas' 11th Expect covid-related issues to play a significant role in the race. , D, Illinois' 3rd , R, Texas' 13th Louisiana, and especially New Orleans, was hit hard in the first wave of , R, Illinois' 15th , R, Texas' 17th the pandemic, and has struggled in recovery. The unemployment rate in Frank Mrvan, D, Indiana's 1st , R, Texas' 22nd the greater New Orleans area is 9.5 percent, compared to a national rate , R, Indiana's 5th , R, Texas' 23rd of 7.7 percent. In Orleans Parish proper, that figure rises to 12.5 percent. , R, Iowa's 1st , R, Texas' 24th And the city is up against a hard deadline: Mardi Gras is February , R, Iowa's 4th , R, Utah's 1st 16. Financial services firm Wallethub estimates that Mardi Gras has , R, Kansas' 1st , R, Utah's 4th an economic impact in excess of $1 billion on New Orleans, and while Jake LaTurner, R, Kansas' 2nd , R, 's 5th Cantrell, the city’s mayor, has already canceled 2021’s parades, it is , D, Massachusetts’ 4th , Washington's 10th still an open question how the city will accommodate the traditionally , R, Michigan’s 3rd Scott Fitzgerald, Wisconsin's 5th raucous celebrations. Lisa McClain, R, Michigan’s 10th Continued on page 6

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM INSIDEELECTIONS.COM December 3, 2020 5 December 3, 2020 1 Continued from page 1 The two incumbents, who have pooled their campaign efforts for the runoff after keeping their distance from each other for most of the year, have also seized on a clip of Senate Minority Leader (who will be Senate Majority Leader if Democrats win the two Georgia seats) taken on the streets of New York following the announcement of Biden’s win on Nov. 7. In the video, a masked Schumer speaks to an exuberant crowd, saying “Now we take Georgia, then we change America!” A Perdue ad making use of the clip intones, “that’s their goal: total control to bring horrific change to America. Only Georgians can stop them.” Schumer appears in ads paid for by Perdue, Loeffler, a joint committee formed by both senators, and also in an ad from Florida Sen. , who is the incoming chairman of the National Republican Kelly Loeffler for Senate ad Senatorial Committee and a potential 2024 presidential candidate looking to burnish his team player bona fides. that he won the presidential election nationwide and in Georgia. Had he One roadblock in Republicans’ attempts to portray themselves as the won, Republicans would retain control of the Senate even if both Georgia last line of defense of a Democratic Senate is that Trump still maintains seats flipped, because Vice President could break 50-50 ties. The result is sometimes-couched public language from Loeffler and Perdue about needing to elect Perdue and Loeffler just in case Biden ends up winning, while also indulging Trump in other ways, such as calling for the resignation of Georgia’s Republican secretary of state, who has been the target of the president’s wrath for the past three weeks.

The Anti-Warnock Push Much of the Republicans’ candidate-specific messaging has focused on Warnock, who entered the runoff largely unscathed since Loeffler and GOP Rep. Doug Collins were focused on each other and finishing in one of the top two positions. Warnock’s 25 years as a preacher have provided ample fodder for GOP opposition researchers looking to portray the reverend as “a radical’s radical,” as one Loeffler ad deems him. Kelly Loeffler/David Perdue/NRSC joint committee ad Continued on page 7

Continued from page 5 The 2nd District already lags behind every other district in the state in Richmond also leaves a complicated legacy on the area known as , and observers expect steep dropoff from the 65.8 percent of “Cancer Alley,” a stretch of the River Parishes along the Mississippi voters that showed up in November, to potentially just 15 to 20 percent. where a high concentration of industrial chemical plants and pockets of That introduces significant uncertainty, and provides an opportunity cancer have attracted national attention. for candidates who might face serious structural challenges with larger Richmond, one of the top recipients of oil, gas, and chemical money in turnout, such as Fields, the former Baton Rouge congressman, and the Democratic caucus, has come under fire from activists in the district Moreno, the white city council president. because they believe he has been inattentive to the issue. But people It also could increase the impact of big-name endorsements from local involved in the issue are skeptical that Richmond’s replacement, no matter or national political figures that weigh in. who it is, will be any better. For instance, while Peterson won plaudits from environmentalists including the Sunshine Movement for being one The Bottom Line of the highest-ranking members of the DNC to endorse a presidential With such a crowded field and light turnout, this race has an primary debate on climate issues only, she also has worked as a lawyer unpredictable tenor. In the 7-person primaries this district saw in 2006 for the energy sector. And while Moreno has pushed for expanded solar and 2008, runoff spots were determined by just a few thousand votes. energy in New Orleans, she has also come under fire by some climate Barring some catastrophe, Democrats will retain their hold on this activists for not being harsh enough on Entergy, the city’s gas provider. seat. But the time it will take to elect a new representative could have outsized impact on the legislative agenda of Biden’s first months in Turnout Troubles office, given how narrow House Speaker ’s majority will be. Special elections typically suffer from depressed turnout, especially The winner of the seat will also become the state’s second-most- in safe seats and so soon after an exhausting presidential election. Even important Democrat, after the governor, and could have a clear path in the fairly regular December runoff elections Louisiana sees, turnout toward nomination for higher office, should the state become more rarely surpasses 30 percent for the highest-profile of races. hospitable to Democrats in the future.

6 December 3, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Ossoff’s documentary production company made with Hong Kong- based PCCW Media (“Chinese communists”) and Qatar-owned TV network Al Jazeera (“terrorist sympathizers”). This comes in addition to more boilerplate language about how Ossoff will , give amnesty to undocumented immigrants, and enact socialism, as well as highlighting Ossoff’s recent acceptance of an endorsement from GOP boogeyman/Vermont Sen. . Notably, Perdue has shied away from the messaging that Republicans used against Ossoff during his 2017 congressional bid and in the run-up to November: that Ossoff was an inexperienced resume-padder, empty suit who has never accomplished anything meaningful in his life. In the handful of ads Perdue and his GOP allies have aired against Ossoff since David Perdue for Senate ad the runoff began, none make mention of inexperience.

Continued from page 6 GOP Positives Loeffler and Perdue have zeroed in on a few key moments from the Neither Republican candidate is emphasizing positive messaging pastor’s past: a visit from to a church where to any extent. Perdue has aired just one positive TV ad since the runoff Warnock was a youth pastor at the time, his 2002 arrest on obstruction began. of justice charges while a counselor at a church summer camp (the In that spot, and as well as in press releases and online videos, charges were later dropped and he was thanked by the police for his Perdue’s case for himself rests on his business experience, “outsider” cooperation), and his defense of preacher Jeremiah Wright following the status, and his role in bringing CARES Act money to Georgia in the controversy involving then-presidential candidate Barack Obama and middle of the year. Wright’s infamous “God Damn America” sermon, clips of which have Loeffler, in her positive communication, has also focused on the made their way into Loeffler’s ads. coronavirus pandemic, in particular her $1 million donation to the Republicans point to comments Warnock made in the wake of Phoebe Foundation, a health care nonprofit in Albany, Ga., that garnered Michael Brown’s killing in Ferguson, Missouri, when he said that police positive media coverage in April. were “showing up in a kind of gangster and thug mentality,” and a The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is also investing seven figures in this snippet of a 2011 sermon in which Warnock, musing on the Gospel of race, providing positive air coverage for Loeffler and Perdue that touts Matthew, says “nobody can serve God and the military,” as evidence the two senators’ efforts to help save small businesses and direct federal Warnock is anti-police and anti-military. They also cite a 2018 sermon funds to the state. Warnock gave on the Israel-Palestinian conflict and a letter Warnock signed the following year decrying conditions in the occupied West Bank Democratic Strategies as evidence Warnock is anti-Israel and even anti-Semitic. Ossoff and Warnock are also running largely as a unit; for either of them to be in the majority, both have to win. Against Ossoff Like Loeffler and Perdue, the Democrats are drawing attention to the In an indication of how Republicans believe the two races’ fortunes fact that victory for them means unified control of government. But their are tied together, every attack Loeffler lobs at Warnock is repurposed messaging on this front is largely positive, as opposed to the anarchy by Perdue as an attack on Ossoff for supporting Warnock despite his depicted in GOP ads. radicalism. Ossoff in particular has run TV spots about working with a President Perdue has also charged Ossoff with taking cash from “Chinese Biden to pass another covid relief package, and frequently talks about communists and terrorist sympathizers,” a reference to licensing deals Continued on page 8

Jon Ossoff for Senate ad David Perdue for Senate ad

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM December 3, 2020 7 In another, Warnock, dressed in a button-up and puffer vest, walks his beagle through a bright, quiet suburb as upbeat music plays, and makes a sight gag involving Loeffler’s ads and a bag of dog waste. The spot ends on a smiling Warnock holding the beagle as it licks his face. Warnock has several more serious, direct to camera spots, all shot in bright, airy spaces with soft backgrounds featuring the candidate seated and wearing button-ups or cardigans. In the ads, Warnock talks about health care, first responders, and quotes scripture as plaintive music plays in the background. The aesthetic has a clear purpose: to portray Warnock in as non-threatening a light as possible, in contrast to the fire and brimstone of the Republican attack ads. Warnock also took a page from the playbook of another Black Democrat who ran this cycle, Virginia congressional candidate Cameron for Senate ad Webb. Like Webb, Warnock has been accused of wanting to defund the police, and like Webb, in response he rolled out an ad featuring current Continued from page 7 and retired Georgia law enforcement officials speaking out in support of the possibility of passing a “ Voting Rights Act” if he and him. Warnock are elected and Democrats take the Senate, along with other One thing Warnock has not discussed much in his TV ads is his role measures including a new Civil Rights Act and the banning of private at Ebenezer Baptist Church. Out of 11 ads his campaign has aired since prisons. Ossoff has also taken to discussing in media appearances how a the runoff began, just two make mention of his role. In one, he briefly loss in Georgia will result in gridlock and inaction in Washington. references it, calling it “the spiritual home of Martin Luther King, Jr. and But both Ossoff and Warnock have largely stuck to specific lines John Lewis,” as he refutes Loeffler’s charge that he hates America. (In of attack against their respective opponents, primarily the allegations case he couldn’t be more on the nose, the ad ends with him saying “I’m of that have plagued Loeffler and Perdue since the Raphael Warnock. I love America.”) pandemic spread across the country at the beginning of the year. Both Just one of the 11 Warnock ads so far goes into depth about his life Loeffler and Perdue sold stock around the time of private Senate story, how he grew up poor in Savannah, was called to Ebenezer Baptist coronavirus briefings, and bought shares in companies including Citrix Church, and has been an activist in Georgia politics since. (Loeffler) and DuPont (Perdue). The FBI and SEC investigated those trades and cleared both of any Campaign Chicanery wrongdoing, which Loeffler and Perdue have noted in several of their Democrats are also trying to exploit Loeffler’s potential weakness own ads (one Perdue ad ends with the text “Totally exonerated, no with voters who supported Doug Collins in the first round of voting, in a wrongdoing”). But that hasn’t stopped Warnock and outside Democratic thinly veiled attempt to suppress GOP base turnout. groups from hammering Loeffler over the accusations, in addition to Warnock’s campaign has aired an ad that consists entirely of video of portraying her more generally as an out of touch billionaire. Collins on the campaign trail tearing into Loeffler as a phony who “doesn’t For Perdue, the troubles don’t stop with covid-19. Ossoff has seized know who she is except for the cue card the staff put in front of her.” on a series of stories over the past months scrutinizing Perdue’s other That ad is running in the Greenville, South Carolina media market, financial transactions, including one instance where Perdue sold meaning it will be seen on TV in the northeast corner of Georgia; not off seven figures of stock in a company after its CEO emailed him coincidentally, this is the rural, conservative part of the state Collins (accidentally, he says) alluding to unspecified upcoming changes to the represents in the US House, and one of the few areas of the state where firm, that then caused its share price to drop. The FBI again investigated, Collins outperformed Loeffler in November. but declined to press charges, per . And the Super PAC Georgia Honor, an affiliate of main Democratic That hasn’t stopped Ossoff from calling Perdue a crook, even to his Super PAC Senate Majority Fund, is running an ad featuring footage face at an October debate. The 33-year-old has folded in those criticisms from a March episode of the Fox News show “Justice with Judge of Perdue with his own positive bio, where he presents himself as Jeanine” in which host Jeanine Pirro excoriates Loeffler, saying she a corruption-fighting investigative journalist who is fighting to end “knew the market was going to tank” when she sold her stock, and that Georgia’s old boys’ club mentality. she’s “knee deep in the swamp.” That ad is airing in Albany, Georgia, where it will be seen by Warnock Fights Back voters in the southwest corner of the state, another area where Collins With Republicans waging a scorched-earth campaign against outperformed Loeffler. Warnock, the Democrat has spent much of his time trying to reassure voters that he is not the violent communist radical he appears to be in The Bottom Line GOP ads. With a month to go, there’s still time for the candidates and parties The pastor has leaned on a combination of humor and respectability to revise and change their ads and strategies depending on their politics to achieve that effect. His first ad, the first of any candidate in the perceived effectiveness. But it looks like Republicans and Democrats are runoff, warns viewers that they’ll soon hear lots of lies about him from settling into what we’ve known for a while; these are two expensive, Republicans, including things like, “Raphael Warnock eats pizza with a competitive, and highly contentious races that will decide control of the fork and knife” and “Raphael Warnock even hates puppies.” Senate.

8 December 3, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH