This issue brought to you by Control of the Senate Control of the Senate 116th Congress 117th Congress* 116th Congress 117th Congress* 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats 50 Republicans, 48 Demcrats 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats 50 Republicans, 48 Demcrats 2020 Elections DECEMBER 3, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 23 Seat Change *Upcoming Races (Jan. 5) 2020 Elections D +1 * Georgia (David Perdue) Seat Change Georgia (Kelly Loeffl er) D +1 * Georgia Senate Runoffs: States that Flipped New Senators Democrat to Republican Tommy Tuberville, R, Alabama States that Switched Party Hands Alabama (Doug Jones) Mark Kelly, D, Arizona Beagles and Stock Trades Democrat to Republican Republican to Democrat John Hickenlooper, D, Colorado Alabama (Doug Jones) Colorado (Cory Gardner) Republican to Democrat Roger Marshall, R, Kansas and Police, Oh My! Arizona (Martha McSally) Colorado (Cory Gardner) Ben Ray Luján, D, New Mexico By Jacob Rubashkin Arizona (Martha McSally) Bill Hagerty, R, Tennessee Upcoming Races (Jan. 5) The outcome of Georgia’s two Senate runoffs on January 5 will Cynthia Lummis, R, Wyoming determine which party controls the U.S. Senate, and whether President- Georgia (David Perdue) elect Joe Biden has any chance of enacting the kind of legislative agenda Georgia (Kelly Loeffl er) Democrats have long envisioned. the voters that show up on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in With such high stakes, neither party is sparing any expense to win November. In 2018, turnout was 61 percent in November but just 23 New Senators these overtime contests. With a month to go before Election Day, the percent in the December runoffs for Secretary of State and Public Service Tommy Tuberville, R, Alabama four candidates and their outside allies have spent or reserved over $322 Commissioner; in 2008, turnout in November was 65 percent and fell to million in TV ads, per data from Kantar/CMAG, a figure that is sure to 37 percent in that December’s Senate runoff. Mark Kelly, D, Arizona increase as January approaches. Rather than spend time and resources on persuasion — trying John Hickenlooper, D, Colorado Previously, Inside Elections explored the history of runoffs in Georgia, to convince undecided voters to back a candidate or peel off voters Roger Marshall, R, Kansas as well as the major players in this year’s runoff elections. This week, from the opposition — the four campaigns are largely focused on Ben Ray Luján, D, New Mexico we’re taking a look at the major issues being litigated by the four Senate boosting turnout among voters that already support them, but may not campaigns. necessarily turn out to vote in a January election. Bill Hagerty, R, Tennessee As such, none of the candidates are executing traditional pivots to the Cynthia Lummis, R, Wyoming The Cast (A Refresher) center one might expect in an evenly divided state. Instead, both sides On Jan. 5, Georgians will vote in two different Senate races. are focused on driving up turnout among their respective bases, and *Two Georgia races oustanding. The first is the regular election, between GOP Sen. David Perdue and driving down turnout among their opponents’. documentary filmmaker Democrat Jon Ossoff. On Nov. 3, Perdue won 49.7 percent of the vote to Ossoff’s 48 percent; the race is headed to a A Nationalized Contest runoff because neither candidate received a majority. Both parties have embraced the nationalization of the races, a break The second is the special election to fill the remainder of former GOP from this cycle’s other competitive Senate contests in states such as Sen. Johnny Isakson’s term. It is between GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who Montana, Kansas, Alaska, and South Carolina, where Democratic was appointed to Isakson’s seat a year ago, and Democrat Raphael candidates sought to distance themselves from the national party. Warnock, senior pastor at the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta. Republicans are running explicitly to “Save the Senate,” positioning Loeffler and Warnock both appeared, along with two dozen other themselves as a bulwark against full Democratic control of Congress and candidates, on an all-party “jungle primary” ballot on Nov. 3, and are potentially Washington, DC. A series of ads from Loeffler and Perdue headed to the runoff because they were the top two vote-getters of the field. warn of the socialism, radicalism, rioting and myriad mayhem that will envelop the country if Democrats take the Senate. To drive home the The Issues point, the two senators have made use of a campaign bus emblazoned It’s a tired cliché that elections come down to turnout, but in the with the slogan “Win Georgia. Save America.” case of runoffs, it’s largely true. Overtime elections attract a fraction of Continued on page 6 InsideElections.com INSIDEELECTIONS.COM December 3, 2020 1 How Biden Rebuilt the Blue Wall By Ryan Matsumoto In 2016, Donald Trump shocked the world by raw vote margin was 54,310 votes better than Clinton’s, the biggest flipping three “Blue Wall” states that had voted net vote swing from 2016 to 2020 statewide. Oakland County includes Democratic in every presidential election since parts of Michigan’s 8th and 11th congressional districts - two districts 1988: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Democrats flipped in the 2018 midterm elections and held Although Barack Obama carried these states this year. by comfortable margins in 2008 and 2012, Key Suburban Trump narrowly carried each of them by Counties Pennsylvania less than 1 percentage point. In Pennsylvania, Biden performed In 2020, the task was clear for Joe in Wisconsin very well in the four suburban Biden and the Democrats. The most collar counties around straightforward path to the presidency Philadelphia (Delaware, was to rebuild the “Blue Wall” by Chester, Montgomery, and winning back those three states that were Bucks). Collectively, these Trump’s narrowest victories in 2016. counties voted for Obama by And that’s exactly what they did. 10 points in 2012, for Clinton by 14 points in 2016, and for Biden Democratic Gains in the Suburbs by 19 percentage points in 2020. In the primaries, many Democrats viewed Biden as While Clinton’s raw vote margin the most electable Democrat who could rebuild the “Blue in these counties was 188,353 votes, Wall” by winning back white working class Obama-Trump Biden’s raw vote margin was 293,273 voters in rural America. But in the end, the key to Biden’s votes. That 104,920 vote difference was victory was making inroads in highly-educated suburbs actually greater than Biden’s statewide in major metropolitan areas that were already trending margin of victory of 80,555 votes. It is fair Democratic, rather than winning back GOP-trending areas. to say that Biden’s gains with college- These were the same types of places that powered Democrats’ educated voters in the Philadelphia successful quest to win back the House in 2018. suburbs made the difference in the Keystone State. Wisconsin In Wisconsin, Biden made strong gains in crucial Waukesha County, a The Bottom Line traditionally Republican suburban county outside Milwaukee. Waukesha In their efforts to challenge the results of the election, the Trump voted for Trump by 27 points in 2016 but only voted for Trump by 21 campaign has focused on the heavily Democratic cities of Milwaukee, points in 2020. In neighboring Ozaukee County, Biden reduced Trump’s Detroit, and Philadelphia. But in reality, these cities were not what made winning margin from 19 points in 2016 to just 12 points in 2020. Ozaukee the difference in this election. Trump actually slightly reduced his losing and Waukesha are the second and third Wisconsin counties ranked by margin in each of these cities compared to four years ago. percentage of adults with a college degree. Rather, what made the difference was a storyline we’ve talked about since day one of the Trump presidency. Although Trump made Michigan surprising gains with minority voters and maintained the support of In Michigan, Biden did very well in Oakland County, a large the vast majority of white working class Obama-Trump voters, it was suburban county outside Detroit. While Hillary Clinton won Oakland Biden’s historic margins in the suburbs that powered his reconstruction County by 8 points in 2016, Biden won it by 14 points in 2020. Biden’s of the “Blue Wall.” Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin 810 7th Street NE • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 Copyright 2020, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. 2 December 3, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Louisiana 2 Special: Brawl on the Blue Bayou By Jacob Rubashkin President-elect Joe Biden’s decision to bring Democratic Rep. Cedric Richmond with him to the White House as a senior adviser sets up what is likely to be the first special election of 2021. With Democrats’ House majority much diminished, even a handful of vacancies could make legislating fraught with difficulty in the early days of the Biden administration, and Biden has stated publicly his reticence to appoint members of the House and Senate to executive branch positions. Louisiana’s But the elevation of Richmond, an early backer of Biden’s 2nd Congressional who served as his national campaign co-chairman, will likely be District a straightforward, relatively painless process. With one notable exception (more on that later), the seat is safely Democratic, and the Democratic governor of Louisiana has signaled he will not delay the special election to replace Richmond.