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THE ECO'iomic FUTURE of HONDURAS: WHAT IT CAN DO to MAKE IT BRIGHTER and HOW the U.S

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THE ECO'iomic FUTURE of HONDURAS: WHAT IT CAN DO to MAKE IT BRIGHTER and HOW the U.S THE ECO'iOMIC FUTURE OF HONDURAS: WHAT IT CAN DO TO MAKE IT BRIGHTER AND HOW THE U.S. MIGHT HELP Presented to: U.S, Agency for International Development Tegucigalpa, Honduras Presented by: Checchi and Company 1730 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 August, 1983 f- I THE ECONOMIC FUTURE OF HONDURAS: WHAT IT CAN DO TO MAKE IT BRIGHTER AND HOW THE US MICHT HELP Honduras has the lowest per capita income of all of The countries of Central and South America. Among the countries of the western hemisphere only laiti has a lower gross national product per person. Although all of the counti== of Central America (except Costa Rica) are in about the same class as Honduras, Honduras" low rank has prevailed for some time, its growth rate in per capita income (as estimated by the World Bank) during the 20 years 1960-/9 being about 1.6 percent per year - the lowest of the Central America countries. Low income usually is the outcome of lack of resources --skills and physical capital - and/or inq-ficient use of the resources available. Honduras' endowment of natural'resources is the envty of many countries, but its people are relatively uneducated and untrained. Long term improvement in Honduras' economic condition requires a substantially higher rate of investment in its people. The prospects for improvement in income in honauras in the immediate future are bleak./ Honduras has borrowed heavily to prevent a decline in consumption occasioned by a decrease in its real income during the past 5 years. It can no longer postpone facing up to the consequences of the past fall in income *and may have to pay heavily for trying to delay some of the 4ecline in consumption usually occasioned by an income decline. The heavy cost is partly the result of the political uncertainty in Central America that has dried up private sources of foreign capital leaving only the loans of other government and the international lending agencies.. he intermediate future, however, could b9e more promising. A higher income level can be obtained by using the available resources more efficiently. Thiis does not mean that a deliberate attempt should be made to plan and direct the economy. The laws and regulations influencing the decisions made by individuals can be altered so that Hondurans and foreigners acting in their own interest ca.i make the economy more productive .2-"'!-& particular, some of the steps that have* been taken to alleviate the increased cost of foreign exchange have been counterproductive. These steps include the introduction of foreign exchange controls aad the increase in iuport duties. Both discourage exports, although the import duties free more of the available foreign exchange for debt repayment. Long-run improvement depends not only on using resources more efficiently but also on increasing the stock of capital - primarily human capital - through increased investment in education and training, sanitation, health and perhaps housihg. The U.S. contribution can take many forms. Cash, technical assistance and loans at subsidized rates are all essentially equivalent. Cash given to Honduras can be osed to buy assistance, but the assistance would not have to be paid for with Honduran cash if it is provided by the U.S. j If low interest rate loans are provided to Honduras, it pays less but U.S. taxpayers pay for -2­ the subsidy. Paying in cash to lower Honduran borrowing costs would have the same effect and the same cost to the U.S. The U.S, can fix the current value of the amount of aid it gives Honduras and let Honduras choose the form in which it propose-to receive it. As a favor to Honduras, the U.S. may impose some constraints on its aid. It may be easier for Honduras to makc zome needed reforms that it cannot now make, for politicians can say "we have to do this in order to get the U.S. assistance we need". I. The Economy of Honduras in the Near Future From the first part of 1980 to date the rea' income of Honduras, as measured by its real gross domestic or national product, has been more or less stationary, if not declining slightly. Since population grew at about 4 percent per year, the result is a decline in per capita iqotme oJ about 4 percent per year. This compares with a growth of about l.16Seryear in the two decades 1960-79. By the end of 1983 instead of an averagec Honduran's income being 6.6 percent higher then it was at the beginning of 1980, it will be 15 percent lower. Instead of having a growth of income o,'er the 4 years of 16 percent of the 1979 income, there has been a decline amounting to nearly 40 percent of the 1979 income. Among the reasons for thedecline have been the large increase in the price of petroleum that occurred in 1979, the decrease in the prices of some Honduran exports due to changes in world supply and demand, including the decline in economic activity in the U.S, and Western "urope, and some unproductive investments encouraged by the government of Honduras. The government cushioned the effects that the income decline otherwise would have had on consumption by increasing ir-aPudget defi - ' and financing these deficits mostly by borrowing abroad. Also there were excess oQf imports over exports of more than t500 million (more than 5 percent of Honduras gross national product) in the years 1979-1982. This increased foreign debt, both private and public, and requires that there be export surpluses at some future time or that foreign investment be large. The larger foreign investment might consist of transfers of assets from Honduras to foreigners, if Honduras honors it debts. The immediate problem of Honduras is simply how to reduce the two gaps ­ the excess of government expenditure over tax revenue and the excess of imports over exports - in the least painful manner. Presumably taxes can be increased and government expenditures decreased to cut the budget deficit. The government cannot borrow significant amounts within the country to postpone the budgetary adjustment. If a fairy godmother does not give it the difference between expenditures and taxes, the government must borrow abroad or resort to printing money. Its foreign debt probably cannot be increased overall, so borrowing to finance the budget deficit probably would have to be accompanied by a reduction in other foreign debt. More of Honduras would be "sold" to foreigners. The deficit in tle balance of payments will be reduced -3 ­ if the rest of the world will not finance it. The only sources of foreign exchange would be the proceeds of current exports. Improvement in the levels of economic activity in the countries that import Honduran products will improve the export picture but not enough to alter the j;eneral character of the problem. A. Will U.S. Crisis Aid Help Honduras? About 500 million of the addition to the foreign debt in 1980-83 was to cover the budget deficit. This represents more than 20 percent of the. estimated net income of the country for 1983. Most of the proceeds of these loans were not invested in producing assets and have no yield. To repay such debt will require taxing more and/or spending less in the future. It must make future income of Hondurans smaller than would be the case if the debt had not been incurred. W'ether the debt will be "repaid" is doubtful. If the debt is not to be "repaid in full", i.e. if it is rescheduled, renogociated and repudiated so that its present value is less than what the lenders expected it to be, and U.S. aid is used to heJ.p pay the debt, such aid will mostly be transfered to the holders of foreign debt. lf the transfers improve the credit rating of Honduras, the aid benefits are split between Honduras and the creditors. If Honduras' treatment of its foreign debt is unaffected by U.S. aid, it will all go to Honduras. B. What Honduras can do for itself in the immediate future As has been noted the immediate problems of Honduras are its budget defic.t and its disposable foreign exchange. llnlcss some of its assets are sold to foreigners, the value of Honduran imports must be equal to the value of its exports minus the repatriated earnings of foreign investors and interest and net repayment of foreign loans. The amount of new loans that can be obtained is small. Consequently, Honduras is trying to schedule foreign debt interest and repayment so as to make its export surplus as small as possible. 1. A Free Market for foreign Exchange Honduras can make better use of whatever foreing exchange is available to it if it abandons exchange controls. An exchange rate of one dollar for two lempiras is a higher price for the lempira than could be sustained by the Central Bank. hen it was apparent that it would exhaust its stock of lempiras by maintainning the price, it instituted a system of exchange controls to ration the available stock of dollars. This measure devalued the Lempira. The price of a dollar that cannot be obtained is infinite. Most of the dollars that are available at the official rate of exchange are obtained only by the expenditure of time by both civil servants and the buyers of the dollars in creating forms to file, filling out forms, standing in line to obtain import licenses, complying with deposit requirements and in general producing and cutting red tape associated with the system of allocating the exchange.
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