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HONDURAS DEVELOPMENT POLICY REVIEW Accelerating Broad-Based Growth

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Report No. 28222- HO HONDURAS DEVELOPMENT POLICY REVIEW Accelerating Broad-Based Growth November 8, 2004 Central America Department Latin America and the Caribbean Region Document of the World Bank CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Lempira (L) 1 US Dollar = L17.5200 1 Lempira = 0.0570 US$ ( As of November 10, 2004) FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADEL Local Education Development Associations AML Anti-Money Laundering AML/CFT Anti Money Laundering / Combating the Financing of Terrorism BANADESA State-owned rural development bank CA Central America CACM Central American Common Market CADERH Private non-profit vocational training institute CAFTA Central American Free Trade Agreement CAN National Anti-Corruption Council CBH Central Bank of Honduras CCME State Modernization Committee CEB Basic Education Center CEM Country Economic Memorandum CEPAL/ECLA Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe CFAA Country Financial Accountability Assessment CFT Combating the Financing of Terrorism CNBS National Banking and Insurance Commission CNE National Energy Commission CNSSP National Supervisory Commission for Public Services CONATEL Comisión Nacional de Telecomunicaciones CPAR Country Procurement Assessment Review CPI Corruption Perception Index DGP Office of the Budget DPR Development Policy Review EFA-FTI Education for All – Fast Track Initiative ENEE Public power utility company ENP Empresa Nacional de Puertos (National Ports Authority) FHIS Honduran Social Investment Fund FONAPROVI State-owned wholesale bank FOSEDE Deposit Insurance Fund FSAP Financial Sector Assessment Program GDP Gross Domestic Product HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Country HONDUTEL Public telecommunications company IDA International Association for Development IDB Inter-American Development Bank IMF International Monetary Fund INE Instituto Nacional de Estadística (National Statistical Institute) INFOP National vocational training institute (public) LAC Latin America and the Caribbean LLECE Latin American Laboratory for the Assessment of Educational Quality MDG Millennium Development Goal NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NGO Non-governmental Organization PAO Annual Operating Plans PRGF Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility PRSC Poverty Reduction Support Credit PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper ROAA Return on Average Assets ROAE Return on Average Equity SANAA Public water and sanitation utility company SAT Scholastic Assessment Test SEFIN Secretaría de Finanzas (Finance ministry) SERNA Secretaría Recursos Naturales y Ambiente (Environment ministry) SIAFI Integrated financial management system SIARH Public sector human resource database SIDA/SAREC Swedish International Development Agency SIERP Integrated Poverty Reduction Tracking System SIGADE Integrated Debt Management System SINACOIN Integrated system for recording foreign assistance inflows SISPU Integrated System for Public Investment SML Securities Market Law SSP Secretaría de Salud (Health Secretariat) SOPTRAVI Secretaría de Obras Publicas y Transporte (Transport ministry) SWAPs Sector wide approaches TFPG Total Factor Productivity Growth TGR Treasury TSC Tribunal Superior de Cuentas (Supreme Audit Court) UIF Unidad de Información Financiera UMCE External Educational Quality Assessment Unit UNDP United Nations Development Programme UPEG Sector Planning and Evaluation Groups WBI World Bank Institute Vice-President David De Ferranti Country Director Jane Armitage PREM Director Ernesto May Task Manager Ulrich Lächler HONDURAS DEVELOPMENT POLICY REVIEW Accelerating Broad-Based Growth November 8, 2004 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................... i RESUMEN EJECUTIVO Y RECOMENDACIONES ……………………………………………. xxiv Chapter I: RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND GROWTH PERFORMANCE ….. 1 A. Country Context …………………………………………………………………………... 1 B. Recent Economic Developments ……………………………………………………….… 5 C. The Main Determinants of Economic Growth in Honduras ……………………………… 10 D. Main Conclusions ………………………………………………………………………… 15 Chapter II: EDUCATION AND GROWTH ……………………………………………………. 18 A. Status and Evolution of Education in Honduras ………………………………………… 20 B. Education Spending in Honduras ………………………………………………………… 23 C. The Fiscal Challenge of Expanding Primary and Secondary Education ………………… 27 D. Summary and Recommendations ………………………………………………………... 32 Chapter III: PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE AND GROWTH …………………………………. 35 A. Coverage, Quality and Efficiency of Infrastructure Services in Honduras ……………… 35 B. Pattern of Public Expenditures on Infrastructure ………………………………………… 44 C. Expanding the Role of Private Participation ……………………………………………... 45 D. Strengthening the Policymaking and Regulatory Framework …………………………… 49 E. Refocusing Infrastructure Pricing and Subsidy Policies ………………………………… 51 F. Summary and Recommendations ………………………………………………………... 53 Chapter IV: FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ….…… 56 A. Brief Overview of Recent Financial Sector Developments ……………………………… 56 B. Tackling the Agricultural Credit Problem ………………………………………………. 60 C. Strengthening the Financial System ……………………………………………………… 63 D. Summary and Recommendations ………………………………………………………... 67 Chapter V: IMPROVING GOVERNANCE IN HONDURAS ………………………………… 70 A. Review of Governance Indicators ………………………………………………………. 70 B. Public Expenditure Management Reform ………………………………………………. 72 C. Civil Service Reform …………………………………………………………………….. 78 D. Judicial Reform ………………………………………………………………………….. 81 E. Concluding Remarks and Recommendations ..………………………………………….. 84 ANNEXES: A: The Key Determinants of Growth in Honduras B: The Evolution of the Central Government Wage Bill in Honduras C: The Main Providers of Secondary Education Services in Honduras D: The Estimated Cost of Raising Primary and Secondary Education Outcomes E: A Preliminary Assessment of the Honduran National Innovation System . F: CAFTA and its Implications for Honduras Text Tables Table 1.1. Honduras – Sector Shares of GDP ………………………………………………….. 3 Table 1.2. Honduras – Gross Domestic Expenditure and Product ….………………………….. 4 Table 1.3. Honduras – Macroeconomic Framework……………. ….………………………….. 9 Table 1.4. Honduras – Contributions to Output Growth………. ….…………………………… 12 Table 1.5. Honduras – Alternative Long Term Growth Scenarios.…………………………….. 13 Table 1.6. Honduras – Project Evolution of Poverty Headcount Indicators under Alternative Growth Assumptions ……….……………… 14 Table 1.7. Honduras – The Key Determinants of Growth in Honduras….………………….…. 15 Table 2.1. Honduras – Key Education Indicators by Level, 2001…….….………………….….. 20 Table 2.2. The Income Distribution of Primary Completion Rates…….….…………………… 23 Table 2.3. Honduras: Evolution of Public Spending on Education: 1997-2002………………... 24 Table 2.4. Honduras: Total Education Spending per Student by Level …………………….…. 24 Table 2.5. Honduras: Expenditures by the Education Ministry……………….………………... 25 Table 2.6. Honduras: Estimated Public Subsidy by Educational Level, 2002 …………….…. 27 Table 2.7. Alternative Fiscal Scenarios for Expanding Secondary Education .………………... 30 Table 3.1. Key Infrastructure Indicators in 2000……………………………. ……………….. 37 Table 3.2. Road Transport Indicators in Central America…………………. ……………….... 37 Table 3.3. Electricity Service Coverage in Honduras, 1989-2002…………………………..…. 40 Table 3.4. Cost of Calls to USA, 2003…………………………..………….………………..…. 41 Table 3.5. Access to Water and Sanitation Services in Honduras…………………………….... 42 Table 3.6. The Distribution of Access to Infrastructure Services, 2003…. ………………..…. 43 Table 3.7. Honduras: Public and Private Investment (in million US$).…. ………………..…. 44 Table 3.8. Principal Entities Involved in Infrastructure Services, 2003.…. ………………….. 47 Table 4.1. The Banking Systems in Central America, 2001…………..…. ……………….…. 57 Table 4.2. Selected Banking Sector Indicators in Central America, 2002……...……………... 59 Table 4.3. Honduras: Balance Sheet of the Consolidated Banking System ...…………………. 60 Table 4.4. Financial Sector Institutions in Honduras, 2003……………… ...……………….… 69 Table 5.1. Selected Indicators of Judicial System Performance.………… ...………………..… 81 Boxes Box 2.1 The Rate of Return to Education in Honduras…………….….………………….….. 22 Box 4.1 The Structure of Honduras’s Financial System..………….….………………….….. 57 Box 5.1 Systematic Recommendations of the CFAA Action Plan for Honduras .……….….. 77 Box 5.2 Land Insecurity in Honduras ……………………………………………………….. 84 Box 5.3 Key Short-Term Actions Proposed by the National Anti-Corruption Council for Combating Corruption in Honduras ………...…….……… 85 Figures Figure 1.1. Central America: Real Effective Exchange Rates………………………………….. 6 Figure 1.2. Central America’s Growth Performance; 1960 – 2000……………………………. 11 Figure 1.3. Perceptions of Corruption in Latin America & Caribbean, 1999-2000…………… 16 Figure 2.1. Primary Education Spending and Outcomes in Honduras …………...…………… 26 Figure 3.1. Access to Infrastructure Services in Central America….. …………...……………. 36 Figure 3.2. The Relationship between Infrastructure Development and per Capita GDP in Latin America……………………….. …………...………. 38 Figure 4.1. Honduras: Indicators of Financial Development………………………...………… 58 Figure 5.1. Governance in Honduras versus Latin America and the Caribbean: 2002.…………. 71 Figure 5.2. Governance in Honduras versus Lower Middle Income Countries: 2002.……….… 72 TECHNICAL ANNEX TABLES Table 1. Gross Domestic Expenditure and Product (shares of GDP, current prices) Table 1A. Gross Domestic Expenditure and Product (current
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