Anchorage Demographics, Housing Market & New Construction
Presented by Susan Fison! ! Anchorage HAND Commission! May 7, 2014!
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND.
Housing Anchorage seeks to find broad-based community solutions to improve the availability of housing options for Anchorage's workforce and to spur economic growth.! ! Collaborators: • Alaska Housing Finance Corporation! • Anchorage Community Development Authority! • Cook Inlet Housing Authority! • Rasmuson Foundation ! • United Way of Anchorage! • Anchorage Economic Development Corporation's Live. Work. Play. Initiative.! ! ! Anchorage Population (in 1000s) 327 292 301 260 226 174 126 83
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 2022*
Source: U.S. Census and *Alaska Department of Labor projection.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Seniors (65 & Older) 13.5%
7.5% 5.5% 3.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.4%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012 2022* Source: U.S. Census and *Alaska Department of Labor projection.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Households by Type
9% 23% Married w/Children Single-parent 26% Families - No Child 11% One Person Roommates
31%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Anchorage Renters! 39% Owners! Housing 61% Market
2012: 105,517 Households
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Rental Households by Age of Head
Under 25 86% 25-34 58% 35-44 41% 45-54 29% 55-64 22% 65-74 18% 75 & Up 23% All Ages 39%
Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Type of Occupied Housing Unit
Single-Family 2-4 5-19 20 or + Units Mobile Homes
5% 4%2% 3% 5% 15% 27%
23%
85% 31%
Owner Housing Rental Housing
Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Age of Housing Unit
9% 13% 2000-2012 12% 1980-99 1970-79 1960-69 Before 1960 37% 30%
Occupied & Vacant: 113,070 Units Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Average Apt. Vacancy Rate
10% 8.0% 8%
6% Healthy Vacancy Rate 5% 4.7% 4.5% 4% 3.3% 2.3% 2.6% 2% 1.8%
0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Rental survey by AK Dept of Labor for Alaska Housing Finance Corporation.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Average Adjusted Apt Rents $ 1,500
$ 1,250
$ 1,000
$ 750
$ 500 3-Bedroom 2-Bedroom $ 250 1-Bedroom Efficiency $ 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Rental survey by AK Dept of Labor for Alaska Housing Finance Corporation.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Anchorage Apt Rents - 2013
Efficiency $849
1-Bedroom $1,090
2-Bedroom $1,287
3-Bedroom $1,457
Source: Rental survey by AK Dept of Labor for Alaska Housing Finance Corporation.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Hourly Wage Needed - 2013
Efficiency $17.69
1-Bedroom $20.96
2-Bedroom $24.75
3-Bedroom $28.02
Source: Rental survey by AK Dept of Labor for Alaska Housing Finance Corporation. *If spending 30% of gross income on housing.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Monthly Income to Afford Rent
Retail Sales (6,400) $2,028 Office Clerks (4,630) $2,924 Managers (3,880) $7,706 Nurses-R.N. (3,380) $6,861 Janitors (3,070) $2,241 Wages needed to afford! Laborers (2,890) $2,434 1-bedroom ($3,382)! Fast Food (2,590) $1,595 2-bedroom ($3,843) Secretaries (2,440) $3,045 Bookeepers (2,340) $3,409 Truck Drivers (1,750) $4,228 Elem. Teachers (1,630) $5,541 Exec. Secret. (1,610) $4,004 Carpenters (1,470) $5,311 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: numbers in parentheses = number employed in occupation; dollars show hourly wage. Wages needed assumes that 30% of income will be spent on housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2012.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. How Many Minimum Wage Workers to Afford a One-Bedroom Apartment?
2000 2.1 Workers
2005 2.0 Workers
2010 2.4 Workers
2013 2.8 Workers
0 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.8
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Alaska Dept of Labor rental survey for AHFC.
15 BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Anchorage Gross Rent as % of Household Income
19%
Under 30% 9% 30-39.9% 54% 40-49.9% 50% or + 19%
Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 5 yr average 2008-2012.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Average Home Sale Price! (in 1000s)
$349 $337 $347 $350 $327 $326 $329 $315 $321 $322 $300 $292 $260 $250 $236 $223 $207 $200 $188
$150
$100
$50
$0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014* Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS). *First quarter of 2014 only.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Average Condo Sales Price! (in 1000s) $199 $203 $198 $200 $188 $191 $196 $191 $195
$150
$100
$50
$0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS). *First quarter of 2014 only.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Home & Condo Prices! Anchorage MLS - 2013
Income Needed! Condos $60,000 $203,215
Income Needed! Homes $85,000 $346,977
Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and local banks.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Housing Price & CPI Change! 2007-2013
One-Bed Apartment 28%
Two-Bed Apartment 23%
Anchorage CPI 16%
Condo 8%
Single Family Home 6%
Source: Consumer Price Index (CPI), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Homes for Sale April 2014 Under $180,000 18 $180-199,999 20 $200-224,999 12 $225-249,999 42 $250-274,999 26 $275-299,999 30 $300-349,999 60 $350-399,999 68 $400-499,999 110 $500-749,999 120 $750-999,999 34 $1 Million + 22
Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS).
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. MLS Home Listings by Month 2006-2014 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1/06 7/06 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 7/13 1/14
Source: Alaska Multiple Listing Service (MLS).
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Residential Construction How much housing does Anchorage need?
March 2012 Anchorage Housing Market Analysis: Anchorage Bowl will need 18,200 more units by 2030.! !
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. New Housing - Anchorage Bowl 1,000 Projected Need: 909 Units Annually 900 800 Multi Family Units 700 Duplex Units 600 Single Family 500 400 72 300 98 142 98 121 183 62 80 200 74 48 76 38 100 151 149 173 135 178 177 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Municipality of Anchorage Building Permit reports.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. New Housing Units! Actual vs Need - 2013
1000 Multi-Family 750 Duplex 418 500 Single-Family 72 173 250 80 318 177 0 Actual Need
Source: Municipality of Anchorage Building Permit reports.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Conversions to New Housing Units! Anchorage Bowl - 2008-2013
10% Karluk Manor Inlet Tower 47% Henry House 38% Howard Johnson
5%
Total New Units: 476
Source: Alaska Housing Finance Corporation (AHFC).
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. New Housing Units & Conversions! Anchorage Bowl 2008-2013
18% Private Sector Conversions 19% Non-Profits/Tax Cr. 64%
Total Units: 2,531
Source: Municipality of Anchorage Building Permit reports and Alaska Housing Finance Corporation.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Private Sector vs Non-Profits! New Housing Units 2008-2013
1,800 1,609
1,350 375 Multi-Family Duplex 308 900 Single-Family 446 450 926 339 3770 0 Private Non-Profit/Tax Cr. Source: Municipality of Anchorage Building Permit reports.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Mat-Su Population (1000s)
125 118
96 100 92 94 86 89 81 84 75 78 75 71 65 68 59 62 50
25
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2022* Source: U.S. Census and *Alaska Department of Labor projection.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Alaska Population 2013 &! New Homes 2002-2012, by Region Anchorage Fairbanks Mat-Su Other AK
15% 23% 33% 41%
15% 13% 47% 14%
Population 2013 New Homes 2002-12
Source: Alaska Department of Labor.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Economic Comparisons
Economic Bust Late Today 1980s 248,263 in 1985 down Record High Population Population to 218,979 in 1988 301,134 in 2013 New Housing Units Less than 200 per year About 350 per year
30-yr mortgage rates 9-14% 3.5-4.5%
Rental Vacancy Rate Peaked at 26% 2-3%
Residential 6,621 in 1988 1,314 in 2012 Foreclosures
Oil Prices Under $11/Barrel $100+/Barrel
Homes for Sale 1,500-2,500 450-1,000
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. ! Anchorage Bowl Mobile Home Parks! ! • Important source of affordable housing and 70% of residents own their homes.! ! • Most mobile homes in parks are at least 44 years old and are valued at under $17,000.! ! • Many parks have failing infrastructure and public safety issues.! ! • More than 40 parks in the bowl (668 acres). Most are well-located for multi- family housing or mixed-use development.! ! • However in last two decades, nearly all redeveloped parks have become commercial or lower density residential.! ! • In the next two decades is is likely that most of these mobile home parks will be redeveloped.! !
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Zoning of Mobile Home Parks! Anchorage Bowl - 2014
24% 5% 3% R-1 2% R-2 R-3 R-4 66% B-3
Total Acres:668
Source: Municipality of Anchorage Property Appraisal records.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Proposed Redevelopment of Riviera Mobile Home Park • 30 acre park with 170 mobile homes at 3307 Boniface! ! • Space rent; $425/month! ! • Assessed at $3.8 million! ! • Proposed: 450 units! ! • Want rezone from R2-M to R-3! ! • Want deteriorated property redevelopment tax relief
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Four Seasons! Manufactured Housing Community! (Weidner Purchased in 1991)!
• Park has 367 spaces on 39 acres. Zoned R-2M. Assessed at $6.1 million.!
• 62 owners rent spaces for $450/mo.!
• 2004 replaced 23 units; 60 in 2013.!
• New Units: 1,065 sq ft, 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 baths.$1,300 & $1,400 per month.!
• Plan to replace 90 in 2014; 90 in 2015.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. AHFC in 2014 - 88 New Affordable Rentals
• Village at Glenn Square: Project will add 70 units in 14 buildings at Mountain View Drive & Porcupine. ! • San Roberto Avenue! (Russian Jack):18 units in three buildings. ! • Cook Inlet Housing Authority will operate.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Rustic Goat &Turnagain ! Crossing Apartments !
• 17,816 square-foot R-3 lot rezoned to B-1A mixed use !
• Rustic Goat operated by Kaladi has limited parking!
• Six three-story 1-bedroom loft- style apartments!
• Units have 764 square feet plus one-car garage.!
• Rent: $1,500/month, plus gas & electric.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND. Country Lane 42nd & Old Seward • 54 units, built in 1965. Assessed: $2.2 million. Taxes: $33,000! ! • Rezone from R-3 to R-4A: Multifamily residential mixed-use! ! • Five stories, parking underneath, interior green-space courtyard.! ! • 300-332 studio, 1& 2-bedroom rental apartments plus10,000 square feet of commercial space! ! • $70-80 million project. Estimated taxes: $1 million or more.
BREAKING GRIDLOCK. BREAKING GROUND.