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Event Probabilities and Impact Zones for Hazardous Materials Accidents on Railroads

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Event Probabilities and u.s. Departmem Impact Zones for Hazardous of Transportation Federal Railroad Materials Accidents on Administration Railroads Office of Research and Development Washington DC 20590 P. Ranganath Nayak Donald B. Rosenfield John H. Hagopian Arthur D. Lillie, Inc. Acorn Park Cambridge MA 02140 DOT/ FRA/ORD-83/ 20 November 1983 This document IS available to the Final Report public through the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161. NOTICE This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The United States Govern­ ment assumes no iabfl ity for its contents or use 1 thereof. NOTICE The United States Government does not endorse prod­ ucts or man ufacturers. Trade or manufacturers' names appear herein solely because they are con­ sidered essential to the object of this report. Technical Report Documentation Page R .po,' No. Go" n .... n' Acc ,on No. Recip n'·. Co o 1. 2. •• ••• 3. •• t log No. DOT/FRA/ORD-83/20 4. Title ond SlIbti'le EVENT PROBABILITIES AND IMPACT ZONES FOR HAZARDOUS November 1983 P.,fo,... ,ng 0'90nllOllOn MATERIALS ACCIDENTS ON RAILROADS 6. Cod. DTS-73 P.,Io, ...ing O,goni lolion R.po,' No. - -- - 8. I-::--�A :---:o,I.:-:-1 ---- ------------- --� --f 7 II,h nath Nayak, Donald B. Ro senfield and . P. Ranga John H. Hagopian DOT-TSC-FRA-83-S P.,Iorming O,gonization Nom. and Wo,1o Un,' (TRAIS) 9. Add,en 10. No. Arthur D. Little, Inc .* RR219/R2309 Controct Gron' N Acorn Park 11. 0' o. DOT-TSC-1607 Cambridge MA 02140 T yp. R.po" ond Co".r.d 13. 01 P.,iod ��--------------------------------------1 Sponso,lng Agency Norn. and Add,... 12. Final Report U.S. Department of Transnortation Federal Railroad Administration June 1978 - Feb . 1981 Office of Research and Deve10 �ent Spon,o,ing Agency Cod. 14. Office of Rail Safetv· ResearC1r, RRD-10 Hashinaton DC 20590 5I1ppl.rn.nlo,yNol .. 1 S. U.S. Department of Transportation Research and Special Programs Administration *Under contract to : Transportation Sy stems Center Cambrid2e MA 02142 Ab."ocl 16. Procedures are presented for evaluating the probability and impacts of hazardous mater ial accidents in ra il transportation . The significance of track class for accident frequencies and of train speed for accident severity is quantified. Spec ial attention is given to the analysis of track-caused accident s. Quantitative estima tes are provided of the amount of hazardous ma terial released per accident, as well as of the area affected by these releases. An error analysis is made of the various probabilities. KeyWo,d. 17. 18. Dist,ib",ion S'o'.rnen' Railroads DOCUMENT IS AVAILABLE TO THE PUBLIC Hazardou s Ma terials THROUGH THE NATIONAL TECHNICAL Probabilit ies INFORMATION SERVICE. SPRINGFIELD. VIRGINIA. Risk Analysis 22161 Security .. ,.port) S.clI,i C 1 oui thi' poge) No. Pog.. 19. Clo ". lof 'hi I 20. 'Y I. (01 21. 01 22. P,ice UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED 296 Form DOT F 1700.7 18-72) Reproduction of completed poge authorized .1 PREFACE This report presents methods for the quantitative estimation of the risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials by rail. The work was sponsored by the United States Depar tment of Tran sportation, Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) , Office of Research and Development , Washington, DC, and performed by Arthur D. Little, Inc . under contract DOT-TSC-1607 . The proj ect was monitored by the Transportation Systems Center (TSC) , Department of Transportation , Cambridge, Massachusetts. The authors are grateful to Dr. Theodore S. G1ickman* of the Transpor­ tation Systems Center for his support and guidance in the course of their investigations. We also wish to acknowledge the extensive support provided by Mr . Paul Brenner of Arthur D. Little, Inc., and by our erstwhile colleague, Mrs. Antoinette Mu sser Brad1ey.** Finally, we wish to ment ion the exceptional job done by Mr . Hans Sachdeva in preparing this report for publication . *Now at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University . **Now at Mitre Corporation . iii METR�C C��VEIRSDON t=ACTORS 23 8 = Approximate Conversions to Metric Meaalres = Approximate Conversions from Metric Measures = - 22 Symbol When You Know Multiply by To Find Symbol � 21 Symbol When You Know Multiply by To Find Symbol - = 8 LENGTH 20 - = LENGTH � _ 19 mm millimeters 0.04 Inches In r centllNt.. 0.4 Inch.. In =--- em m 3.3 feet h In Incha centlmet.. 18 met.. -2.& em 7 metorl 1.1 h feet centimeters == m yerds yd 30 em E...- yardl 0.8 - km kilometers 0.6 mUe. ml yd meters m - 17 mil.. kllomet. 1.6 ... km rnI =--= = 16 AREA AREA 6 =---- 16 square centlm.t.r. 0.16 square inch.. = cm2 1.,2 Ina square Inches 6.6 square centimet.,. cml m2 squar. meter. 1.2 squarey.rdl yrJil hi squar. f .. t squ.re meters _ _ krn2 square kilom.t.rs 0.4 squ.re mile, mi2 0.09 mI 14 yrJil squareyard. 0.8 squar. h. hac:la,.. 110.000 rn2, 2.& .cre. 1Nt.. mI = mP squaremila 2.6 IqUDre kilometers krn2 � 13 ecr.s 0.4 hecta,.. he 6 - = MASS (weight) = MASS (weight) 12 _:: 0.036 ounctl . oz ounctl =-- 11 ,,:em. 01 28 arams I _ Ikg kllogr.ms 2.2 pound, pounds 0.4& kiloarama kg -= Ib Ib _ t tonn .. 11000 kg' 1.1 short toni short toni tonn.. 0.8 • 4 10 (2000 Ib' VOLUME VOLUME - � 9 n, & ml milllllt.rs 0.03 fluid ounces 'I tIP teaspoo millilit.,. ml - = 8 01 tablespoons 1& lit.,. 2.1 pint' pt Tbsp mllliliterl ml 3 = I fl oz mllllllt.,. ml I liter, 1.06 quartl qt fluid ounctS 30 � 7 e cups 0.24 IIt.,1 lit.,. 0.26 ganons gal I I pt pinu 0.47 lit.,. ml cubic met.. 36 cubic feet hl I qt lit.rs � 6 ml cubic met.,. 1.3 cubicyards yd' quam 0.95 I gal 3.8 lit.r. _ IIII110nt I =--- h' cub f .. t 0.03 cublc m.t.. rnl 2 = 5 TEMPERATURE (exact) ydl cub.cyll� dl cublem.t.... 0.76 rnl =- 4 TEMPERATURE (exact) - == ----.,;= °C C.lsius 9/5lthen Fahrenh.it OF .dd t.mper.tur. - temper.tur. 32' =-- 3 OF F.hrenheit &19 (.har Cel.iul 0C - 1 tDm .ture subtracting t.mpel'llture =- OF pei- 2 OF 212 = 32 98.6 321 0 - -40 80 120 160 • • onl and ore oth.r convDrll m .. == 1 I " I I I I I I I I I I '" " I " 2001I '1 In. - 2 fi4 em 'ullCtly' For UK! ....... ubi - I Iii140 iit i I ii i Unl Walght and Price -20 I 100 NBS Mlec:. PubL 288. .. of u..u,... $2.25 SO Catalog -40 0 20 60 80 inches _ _ 0C 37 0C ND. C13 10 286. em 40 TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE l. SUMMARY 1 2 . INTRODUCTION 4 A. OBJECTIVES 4 B. CONCEPTUAL BACKGROUND 7 C. APPROACH 8 D. DATA SOURCES: THEIR USES, AND LIMITATIONS 17 E. REFERENCES 18 3. ACCIDENT FREQUENCIES AND RATES 23 A. INTRODUCTION 23 B. CHOICE OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES 23 C. CHOICE OF MEASURES OF ACCIDENT RATES 24 D. HISTORICAL ACCIDENT STATISTICS 31 E. HISTORICAL DATA ON ��OSURE 40 F. HISTORICAL ACCIDENT RATES 45 G. TRAIN ACCIDENT FREQUENCIES AND PROBABILITIES 47 H. REFERENCES 50 4. NUMBER OF CARS DERAILING 51 A. INTRODUCTION 51 B. YARD AND MAINLINE DERAILMENTS--ALL CAUSES 51 C. YARD AND MAINLINE DERAILMENTS DUE TO TRACK CAUSES 59 D. COLLISIONS 59 E. COLLISIONS WITHOUT DAMAGED CARS S9 5. PRESENCE OF HAZARDOUS-MATERIAL CARS IN TRAINS 63 A. INTRODUCTION 63 B. RATE OF OCCURRENCE OF HAZARDOUS-MATERIAL CARS 63 C. PROBABILITY THAT A RANDOM TRAIN CONTAINS HAZARDOUS- 64 MATERIAL CARS D. EXTRAPOLATION OF � AND P VALUES 66 H H v TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued ) CHAPTER PAGE 6. NL�ER OF HAZARDOUS-MATERIAL CARS DERAILING 70 A. INTRODUCTION 70 B. GENERAL STATISTICAL FORMULAS 70 C. AND VARIANCE OF NUMBER OF HAZARDOUS-MATERIAL 71 MEANCARS DERAILING H D. FITTING A DISTRIBUTION TO T E MEANS AI.'ID VARIANCE 75 E. REFERENCES 79 7. RELEASE PROBABILITY 80 A. INTRODUCTION 80 B. DERAILMENTS 80 C. COLLISIONS 87 8. NUMBER OF HAZARDOUS-MATERIAL CARS RELEASING THEIR CONTENTS 89 A. INTRODUCTION 89 B. NUMBER OF HAZARDOUS-MATERIAL CARS RELEASING 89 C. VALUES FOR m AND k 91 r, G H D. QUANTITATIVE RESULTS FOR MEANS AND VARIANCES 94 E . REFERENCE 96 9. �'10UNT OF HAZARDOUS MATERIAL RELEASED : MEAN AND VARIANCE 97 A. INTRODUCTION 97 B. QUANTITY RELEASED PER CAR 97 C. ANOUNT RELEASED PER ACCIDENT 102 D. QUANTITATIVE RESULTS FOR MEANS AND VARIANCES 106 E. THE GAl-noIA-FITTING PROCEDURE 106 10. AMOUNT OF HAZARDOUS-MATERIAL RELEASED PER ACCIDENT: 112 DISTRIBUTION A. INTRODUCTION 112 B. THE PROCEDURE 112 C. RESULTS 112 D. ACCURACY CHECK 117 E. APPLICATION OF PROCEDURE 117 11. ERROR ANALYSIS OF THE RISK ESTIMATES 121 A. INTRODUCTION 121 B. SOURCES OF ERROR 122 C. REVIEW OF RISK-ESTI�IATION PROCEDURE 123 D. QUANTITATIVE ERROR ESTI�TES 124 vi TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) CHAPTER PAGE 12. AREA AFFECTED BY A RELEASE 134 A. INTRODUCTION 134 B. SELECTION OF HAZARDOUS-MATERIAL CATEGORIES 137 C. IDENTIFICATION OF FEASIBLE SCENARIOS AND 14 2 NECESSARY MODELS D. DAMAGE CRITERIA 147 E. SELECTION OF REPRESENTATIVE CHEMICALS: APPROACHES 160 TO IMPACT ASSESSMENT F. IMPACT-ASSESSMENT METHODS 171 G. SUMMARY OF IMPACT-ASSESSMENT RESULTS 173 H. REFERENCES 182 APPENDICES A. ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY A-1 B. MODELS FOR GENERATING PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FOR B-1 THE NUMBER OF CARS RELEASING AND THE AMOUNT RELEASED C. OVERVIEW OF HAZARD-ASSESSMENT MODELS C-1 D. APPLICATION OF HAZARD-ASSESSMENT MODELS D-1 vii LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE PAGE 2-1 STRUCTURE OF THE MODEL FOR ANALYZING THE POTENTIAL 9 IMPACTS OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS TRANSPORTED OVER A RAIL LINK 2-2 DATA SOURCES 22 3-1 INJURIES BY COMMODITY GROUP BASED ON RELEASES, 1971-1977 42 4-1 NUMBER OF CARS DERAILING: COMPARISON OF RECORDED AND 54 ESTIMATED SPEED 2 4-2 HISTORICAL VALUES OF and cr ESTIMATED FUNCTIONS 58 �_ N �� �D D 7-1 RELEASE PROBABILITY SHOWING RAW DATA AND ANALYTICAL 86 REPRESENTATION q(v), 9-1 MEAN �� VARIANCE OF AMOUNT RELEASED PER CAR 98 9- 2 DISTRIBUTION OF AMOUNT RELEASED AS A FUNCTION OF THE 101 NUMBER OF CARS RELEASING 10-1 CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTIONS OF AMOUNT RELEASED, AR, GIVEN 113 THAT NH > O.
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