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Surveying Livelihoods, Service Delivery and Governance: Baseline Evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Uganda

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Surveying Livelihoods, Service Delivery and Governance: Baseline Evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Uganda Researching livelihoods and services affected by conflict Surveying livelihoods, service delivery and governance: baseline evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Uganda Working Paper 31 Richard Mallett, Jessica Hagen-Zanker, Rachel Slater and Georgina Sturge April 2015 About us Secure Livelihoods Research Consortium (SLRC) aims to generate a stronger evidence base on how people in conflict-affected situations (CAS) make a living, access basic services like health care, education and water, and perceive and engage with governance at local and national levels. Providing better access to basic services, social protection and support to livelihoods matters for the human welfare of people affected by conflict, the achievement of development targets such as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and international efforts at peace building and state building. At the centre of SLRC’s research are three core themes, developed over the course of an intensive one- year inception phase: . State legitimacy: experiences, perceptions and expectations of the state and local governance in conflict-affected situations . State capacity: building effective states that deliver services and social protection in conflict-affected situations . Livelihood trajectories and economic activity in conflict-affected situations The Overseas Development Institute (ODI) is the lead organisation. SLRC partners include the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU), the Centre for Poverty Analysis (CEPA) in Sri Lanka, the Feinstein International Center (FIC, Tufts University), Focus1000 in Sierra Leone, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Humanitarian Aid and Reconstruction of Wageningen University (WUR) in the Netherlands, the Nepal Centre for Contemporary Research (NCCR), and the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) in Pakistan. Secure Livelihoods Research Consortium Disclaimer: The views presented in this paper are those of the Overseas Development Institute author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of DFID, 203 Blackfriars Road the EC, Irish Aid, SLRC or our partners, SLRC Working Papers London SE1 8NJ, UK present information, analysis on issues relating to livelihoods, basic services and social protection in conflict-affected situations. This and other SLRC reports are available from www.securelivelihoods.org. Funded by DFID, the EC and Irish Aid. T +44 (0)20 7922 8221 Readers are encouraged to quote or reproduce material from F +44 (0)20 7922 0399 SLRC Working Papers for their own publications. As copyright E [email protected] holder, SLRC requests due acknowledgement and a copy of W www.secureliveilhoods.org the publication ii Contents About us ii Tables and figures iii Executive summary v 1 Introduction 1 2 Background, objectives and analytical frameworks 3 2.1 Situating the survey within the research programme 3 2.2 Objectives of the panel survey 4 2.3 Analytical frameworks 5 3 Research methodology 16 3.1 Research methodology 16 3.2 Sampling methods and description of sample 17 3.3 Survey comparisons 19 3.4 Econometric analysis 20 4 Which factors influence people’s livelihoods and wellbeing? 23 4.1 A description of livelihood activities of the sampled populations 23 4.2 Examining the wellbeing hypotheses 26 4.3 What do these findings tell us about livelihoods and wellbeing in conflict-affected places? 29 5 Which factors influence people’s access to and experience of services, social protection and livelihood assistance? 31 5.1 Overview of access to and experiences with services, social protection and livelihood assistance 31 5.2 Examining the access to and experience of services/transfers hypotheses 35 5.3 What do these findings tell us about access to and experience of basic services, social protection and livelihood assistance in conflict-affected places? 38 6 Which factors explain people’s perceptions of the state? 40 6.1 Overview of perceptions of government 40 6.2 Examining the government hypotheses 42 6.3 What do these findings tell us about people’s perceptions of the state? 46 7 Conclusions and initial policy implications 49 References 54 Annex 1: Comparative regression tables 61 Annex 2: Descriptive tables 108 iii Tables and figures Tables Table 1: Composition of coping strategies index, from survey instrument 5 Table 2: Satisfaction with components and overall quality of schooling, taken from Sri Lanka survey instrument 9 Table 3: Information on fieldwork 17 Table 4: Criteria used to select fieldwork locations 17 Table 5: Description of the samples 18 Figures Figure 1: SLRC survey comparisons across countries: A hypothetical example of monthly income data 20 Figure 2: Households receiving main income from subsistence farming, by country 23 Figure 3: Mean number of income sources per household, by country 24 Figure 4: Percentage of households with only one income source, out of all households with any income sources, by country. 24 Figure 5: Main source of household income, DRC (% of households) 25 Figure 6: Main source of household income, Sri Lanka (% of households) 25 Figure 7: Main source of household income, Nepal (% of households) 25 Figure 8: Main source of household income, Uganda (% of households) 25 Figure 9: Main source of household income, Pakistan (% of households) 25 Figure 10: Distance to health clinic used (measured by time taken for a return journey), by country 32 Figure 11: Distance to primary school used (measured by time taken for a return journey), by country 33 Figure 12: Distance to water source used, (measured by time taken for a return journey), by country 33 Figure 13: Households receiving social protection and livelihood assistance, by country 33 Figure 14: Overall satisfaction with health facility used (% of respondents) 34 Figure 15: Overall satisfaction with primary school used 34 Figure 16: Perception of water quality, by country 34 Figure 17: Transfer had any positive impact, by type of transfer and across countries 35 Figure 18: Comparisons of perceptions of local and central government 41 iv Executive summary In 2012/13, the Secure Livelihoods Research Consortium designed and implemented the first round of a panel survey in five fragile or conflict-affected countries, generating cross-country data on people’s livelihoods, their access to and experience of basic services and their perceptions of government. This paper synthesises the findings of the DRC, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Uganda baseline surveys, which were delivered to a total of 9,769 households in September-October 2012 (for DRC, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) and in January 2013 for Uganda. Drawing on sets of descriptive statistics and regression analyses run at country level, the analysis here sets out to identify key trends, similarities and differences across the five countries, in relation to three broad lines of enquiry:1 factors associated with better/worse levels of wellbeing and ‘livelihood outcomes’ (food security, asset ownership); factors associated with having better/worse access to basic services or transfers (health, education, water, social protection, livelihood assistance); factors associated with better/worse satisfaction with these services; and factors associated with holding more positive/negative attitudes towards government. Six key findings emerge when we look across the five analyses, which – to some extent – challenge some of the received wisdom that shapes development efforts in fragile and conflict-affected areas. In reading them, we should keep in mind that they provide just a snapshot at one moment in time. In 2015, we will be going back to the same respondents and interviewing them for the second round of the panel survey. At that point, we will be able to measure changes in people’s livelihoods, their access to services and their perceptions of government over time, and will therefore be able to make stronger statements about the factors that possibly determine these. First, the findings point to the importance of education: households with more highly educated heads consistently have better wellbeing outcomes in terms of both household wealth and food security. Findings suggest primary education makes a difference, but recipients of secondary education clearly have even higher wellbeing outcomes. After the second wave of the panel survey we will be able to unpack the causal mechanisms behind these links. Second, we find that coverage of livelihood assistance consistently reaches less than one-third of households – ranging from 15% to 32% of sampled households across the countries. This initial finding suggests that, contrary to what might be expected, the transition from conflict to post-conflict does not appear to result in renewed efforts to support livelihood rehabilitation. There is an apparent gap in both effective strategies and effective programmes at sufficient levels of scale to support processes of livelihood recovery, provide social protection and stimulate employment and growth. The second round of data collection will expand our understanding of what factors affect households’ participation in such programmes. The third finding, and perhaps one of the most unexpected, is that levels of satisfaction with basic services are generally quite high. This does not necessarily mean that households are accessing high- quality services: we are measuring self-reported satisfaction levels based on respondents’ experiences of the service. Three possible explanations are: 1) respondents may be expressing positive perceptions owing
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