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World: The Delta variant is driving a new wave of infections Daily new cases and deaths related to Covid-19, 7-day moving average

1,100,000 15,000

1,000,000 14,000

900,000 13,000

800,000 12,000

700,000 Cases (L) 11,000

600,000 10,000

500,000 9,000 Deaths (R) 400,000 8,000

300,000 7,000

200,000 6,000

100,000 5,000

0 4,000 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Our World in Data)

World: Do the vaccines lose effectiveness over time?

United Kingdom: Israel: New cases and deaths related to Covid-19, New cases and deaths related to Covid-19, 7-day moving average 7-day moving average 65,000 1,300 9,000 80

60,000 1,200 Cases (L) 8,000 70 55,000 1,100

50,000 1,000 7,000 Cases (L) 60 45,000 900 6,000 40,000 800 50 5,000 35,000 700 40 30,000 600 4,000 Deaths 25,000 500 30 Eurozone: The economy seems to be holding up against Delta (R) 3,000 20,000 400 European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator Markit PMI Index 20 15,000 300 2,000 Last observation July 2021 120 65 10,000 200 Deaths (R) 10 Mfg 1,000 115 60 5,000 100

0 0 0 0 110 55 2020 2021 2020 2021 Comp 105 50 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Our World in Data) 100 45 Long-term average 95 40 Services

90 35

85 30

80 25

75 20

70 15

65 10 2005 2010 2015 2020 2018 2019 2020 2021

NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Refinitiv)

Eurozone: Still much to make up Emerging economies: Fiscal conditions are more constraining Real GDP Total measures* implemented since January 2020 to counter effects of Covid-19

102 2019Q4 = 100 18 101 U.S. % of GDP

100 16 99 98 14 Eurozone 97 96 12 95 94 10 93 92 8 91 6 90 89 4 88 87 2 86 85 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 Advanced economies Ermerging economies Developing economies NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Refinitiv) * Includes fiscal measures plus loan programs, loan-guarantee programs and government purchases of equity NBF Economics and Strategy (IMF data)

Developed economies: Delta variant is slowing recovery World: Tourism is very far from its pre-pandemic volume Citi Economic Surprise Index for the G-10 countries

200 International tourist arrivals, Tourist arrivals by region, Index change from pre-pandemic peak change from pre-pandemic peak Last observation May 2021 (May 2021) 160 10 % 0 120 America

-10 80 -20 Africa

40 -30 Europe -40 0

-50 -40 World -60

-80 -70 Middle East

-80 -120

-90 Asia/Pacific -160 % 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 -100 2020M01 2020M05 2020M09 2021M01 2021M05 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Bloomberg) NBF Economics and Strategy (data from United Nations World Tourism Organization)

China: Services output slowed by shutdowns Non-manufacturing PMI, last observation August 2021

58 Index 56 54 52

50 Expansion 48 Emerging countries: Greater sensitivity to interest rates Volume of credit extended to nonfinancial sector as % of GDP 46 Contraction 250 44 % of GDP 42 240 40 230 38 220 36 210 34 200 32 190 30 180 28 170 2019 2020 2021 160 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Bloomberg) 150 140 130 120 110 100 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Belt and Road Initiative)

Emerging countries: Markets still confident JP Morgan index of emerging-country currencies

65 Index 64

63

62

World: Supply chains knocked for a loop by Covid 61 Baltic Dry Index and benchmark cost of shipping a 40-ft container from Hong Kong to Los Angeles 60 4,400 11,000 Index US$ 59

4,000 10,000 58

3,600 9,000 57

3,200 8,000 56 55 2,800 7,000 Baltic Dry index (L) 54 2,400 6,000 53 2,000 5,000 52 2018 2019 2020 2021 1,600 4,000 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Bloomberg) 1,200 3,000

800 2,000

400 1,000 Cost of shipping a container from Hong Kong to Los Angeles (R) 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Bloomberg and Drewry Shipping Consultancy)

U.S.: Resurgence of Covid Daily new cases and deaths related to Covid-19, 7-day moving average

280,000 3,500

260,000 3,250

240,000 3,000

220,000 2,750

200,000 2,500

180,000 2,250 Cases (L) 160,000 2,000

140,000 1,750

120,000 1,500

100,000 1,250

80,000 1,000

60,000 750

40,000 500

20,000 Deaths (R) 250 0 0 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Our World in Data)

U.S.: The current wave of Covid seems less damaging to the economy Google Mobility Report for retail and recreation, 7-day moving average

12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 -20 U.S.: A sharp decline of consumer confidence in August -24 Conference Board and University of Michigan confidence indexes -28 -32 140 108 Index Index -36 135 104 -40 Conference 130 Board (L) 100 -44 -48 125 96 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3

120 92 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Google)

115 88

110 84

105 80

100 76

95 72

90 University of 68 Michigan (R) 85 64 2019M02 2019M07 2019M12 2020M05 2020M10 2021M03 2021M08 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Refinitiv)

U.S.: Households in good shape even without transfer payments

Personal income excluding transfers Estimated excess savings, each month since beginning of pandemic

105 450 2020m02 = 100 US$ billion 104 Total: 400 $2.282 trillion 103 12% of 2019 GDP U.S.: Not enough job openings to make up the employment shortfall 102 350 Total demand for labour: employment + unfilled positions 101 300 160 100 Million 99 158 −2.6M 250 98 156 97 200 154 96 150 152 95

150 94 100

148 93 50 146 92

144 91 0 2019M11 2020M04 2020M09 2021M02 2021M07 2020M03 2020M07 2020M11 2021M03 2021M07 142 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Bloomberg and Refinitiv) 140

138

136

134

132 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Bloomberg)

U.S.: Worst buying conditions in decades University of Michigan consumer surveys, buying conditions for vehicles and houses

190 Index 180 170 Houses 160 150 U.S.: Demand for labour falls short of pre-pandemic level 140 Total demand for labour (employment + job openings) in July 2021* vs. 2019 average 130 120 Vehicles Total Employment 110 Government 100 Private Goods 90 Services 80 Natural resources 70 Leisure/Hospitality 60 Accom/Food services Information 50 Education 40 Wholesale 30 Real estate 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Construction NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Bloomberg) Manufacturing Health/Social assistance Other services Retail Prof/Business services Finance/Insurances Transport/Warehousing % chg. -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

* July job openings as estimated by NBF NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Bloomberg and Refinitiv)

U.S.: Vehicle inventories at an all-time low

Vehicle inventories 12-month change in prices of new/used vehicles according to Consumer Price Index

2,000 7 50 Units % y/y 1,800 6 40 U.S.: Inflation expectations on the rise New (L) University of Michigan consumer surveys, expected inflation over next 12 months and next 5-10 years 1,600 5 30 4 1,400 5.6 % 3 1,200 20 5.2 2 1,000 10 4.8 12 months 1 800 0 0 4.4 600 -1 Used (R) -10 4.0 400 -2

-20 3.6 200 -3

0 -4 3.2 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Bloomberg and Refinitiv) 2.8 5-10 years 2.4

2.0

1.6 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 U.S.: A roaring seller’s market in housing NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Bloomberg) 12-month change in S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index vs. resale-market inventory

25 % y/y All-time high 20 15

Home prices (R) 10 5 0 -5 -10 12 Months of inventory -15 11 -20 10 9 8 Ratio of inventory to monthly sales – 7 resale market (L) 6 5 4

3 suppy 2

1 Short 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Refinitiv)

U.S.: GDP back to potential in Q2 2022 Real GDP with NBF forecasts vs. potential GDP as estimated by CBO

20,800 US$ billion

20,400 2022Q2 U.S.: A run-up of prices way out of the ordinary 20,000 Deviation of 12-month inflation from 10-year average CBO estimate of potential GDP 19,600 4 Standard deviations 19,200 3

18,800 2 NBF forecast of real GDP 18,400 1 18,000 0 17,600 -1 17,200 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 -2 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from CBO)

-3

-4 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Bloomberg and FRED St. Louis)

Canada: Terms of trade propelled by the surge of commodity prices % 12-month change in terms of trade and Bank of Canada index of commodity prices in Canadian dollars

24 % y/y Index, prices in CAD 20 16 % 12-month change 12 in terms of trade (R) 8 4 0 -4 -8 800 -12 720 Commodity price -16 680 index (L)

600 560

480 440

360 320 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada)

Canada: Despite Q2 pullback, the recovery remains enviable Real and nominal GDP, % difference from pre-pandemic level (2019Q4)

Real GDP Nominal GDP UK IT FR DE CA JP US JP IT DE FR UK US CA 2 6 5.1 5 4.8 1 0.8 4 0 3

-1 2

-1.5 -2 1 0.5 -2.0 0 -3 -0.3 -3.3 -3.3 -1 -1.2 Canada: Are consumers ready to stand on their own feet? -4 -3.8 -1.3 -2 -1.8 Disposable income and disposable income excluding government Covid-19 support (annualized)* -4.4 % -5 -3 % 1,520 $ billion Disposable NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Refinitiv) 1,480 income *Cost of programs from 2020Q1 to 2021Q2

1,440 Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy ($89.6 B) Canada Emergency Response Benefit ($74.5 B) 1,400 Canada Recovery Benefit ($19.9 B) Canada Emergency Student Benefit ($2.9 B) Canada Recovery Caregiving Benefit ($2.8 B) 1,360 Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit ($0.6 B)

1,320 Disposable income Trend excluding 1,280 government Covid-19 support (DIEXG) 1,240

1,200

1,160

1,120 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Statistics Canada, link)

Canada: Retail & recreation mobility back to pre-pandemic level Google mobility data for retail & recreation, 7-day moving average

10 % change from baseline* 5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

-35

-40

-45

-50 -55 Canada: Are income support programs holding back recovery? -60 Indicator of unskilled-labour scarcity vs. unemployment rate 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 * Baseline is median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 weeks from January 3 to February 6 2020 38 % of employers August 2021 NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google) 36 reporting that scarcity of unskilled labour is 34 2009m2 to2020m2 limiting their 32 production capacity 2020m3 to 2021m8 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 Unemployment rate (previous month) 8 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 Canada: Slowdown of international tourism favours national economy NBF Economics and Strategy (data via CFIB and Statistics Canada) Foreign visitors to Canada and Canadian residents returning from abroad

8 Millions 7

6 Canadian residents returning from abroad

5

4

3 Foreign visitors to Canada

2

1

0 Foreign visitors to Canada minus -1 Canadians returning from abroad -2

-3

-4

-5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Statistics Canada)

1 We have seasonally adjusted the Desrosiers estimates.

Canada: Record low dealer inventories of motor vehicles Ratios of retail inventories to sales

Ratio 1.2 Ratio 1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

.64 0.7 0.6 .60 0.5 .56 Motor 0.4 vehicles .52 (R) 0.3

.48 Excluding .44 motor vehicles (L) .40 Total (L)

.36 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Statistics Canada)

Canada: Inflationary pressures are broad-based

Number of components with 3-month rise exceeding Average of CPI-Trim and CPI-Median 2% annualized

9 6.0 Number of % 3-month change, annualized components 5.5 8 5.0 7 4.5

6 4.0

3.5 5 3.0 4 2.5

3 2.0

1.5 2 1.0 1 0.5

0 0.0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Statistics Canada)

United States Economic Forecast

Q4/Q4 (Annual % change)* 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2006 2020 2021 2022

Gross domestic product (2012 $) 2.9 2.3 (3.4) 5.7 4.1 (2.3) 5.3 3.7 Consumption 2.9 2.2 (3.8) 8.0 3.3 (2.4) 7.4 2.2 Residential construction (0.6) (0.9) 6.8 10.6 0.2 15.7 0.5 1.0 Business investment 6.4 4.3 (5.3) 7.6 3.0 (3.8) 7.2 1.9 Government expenditures 1.4 2.2 2.5 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 2.0 Exports 2.8 (0.1) (13.6) 4.3 5.4 (10.7) 2.5 6.0 Imports 4.1 1.2 (8.9) 12.2 1.2 0.3 4.2 0.9 Change in inventories (bil. $) 65.7 75.1 (42.3) (113.5) 100.0 88.8 (75.0) 175.0 Domestic demand 3.0 2.4 (2.5) 6.8 2.8 (1.3) 6.0 2.1

Real disposable income 3.4 2.3 6.2 3.0 (1.7) 4.0 1.9 1.2 Payroll employment 1.6 1.3 (5.7) 2.6 3.4 -6.0 4.1 2.5 Unemployment rate 3.9 3.7 8.1 5.7 4.9 6.8 5.1 4.5 Inflation 2.4 1.8 1.3 4.3 3.3 1.2 5.3 2.7 Before-tax profits 8.3 2.7 (5.2) 14.9 2.3 0.9 7.1 2.6 Current account (bil. $) (438.2) (472.1) (616.1) (743.8) (770.5) … ...... -304 * or as noted

Financial Forecast**

Current Q4 2020 Q4 2021 Q4 2022 9/03/21 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 2020 2021 2022

Fed Fund Target Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 3 month Treasury bills 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.05 0.20 Treasury yield curve 2-Year 0.21 0.25 0.30 0.40 0.60 0.13 0.30 0.85 5-Year 0.78 0.85 1.00 1.15 1.25 0.36 1.00 1.45 10-Year 1.33 1.40 1.50 1.65 1.75 0.93 1.50 1.90 30-Year 1.94 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.25 1.65 2.10 2.30 Exchange rates U.S.$/Euro 1.19 1.22 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.22 1.21 1.19 YEN/U.S.$ 110 109 108 109 109 103 108 108

** end of period

Quarterly pattern

Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 actual actual actual actual actual actual forecast forecast Real GDP growth (q/q % chg. saar) (5.1) (31.2) 33.8 4.5 6.3 6.5 3.6 4.7 CPI (y/y % chg.) 2.1 0.4 1.3 1.2 1.9 4.8 5.2 5.3 CPI ex. food and energy (y/y % chg.) 2.2 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.4 3.7 4.1 4.5 Unemployment rate (%) 3.8 13.1 8.8 6.8 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.1

National Bank Financial

Canada Economic Forecast

Q4/Q4 (Annual % change)* 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022

Gross domestic product (2012 $) 2.4 1.9 (5.3) 5.0 4.0 (3.1) 3.4 3.7 Consumption 2.5 1.6 (6.0) 4.1 4.8 (4.4) 3.2 4.9 Residential construction (1.7) (0.2) 4.1 18.1 (5.3) 14.5 2.7 (4.3) Business investment 3.1 1.1 (13.6) 0.1 6.1 (13.9) 4.8 5.4 Government expenditures 3.2 1.7 0.4 5.7 2.2 2.4 4.0 1.7 Exports 3.7 1.3 (10.0) 2.1 6.3 (7.4) 1.3 7.0 Imports 3.4 0.4 (11.2) 7.2 5.1 (5.9) 4.0 5.1 Change in inventories (millions $) 15,486 18,766 (15,937) 5,129 14,967 (287) 11,000 12,869 Domestic demand 2.5 1.4 (4.3) 5.4 3.1 (2.0) 3.4 3.1

Real disposable income 1.5 2.2 9.5 1.2 (0.7) 7.4 1.2 0.5 Employment 1.6 2.2 (5.1) 4.4 2.8 (2.9) 3.1 2.1 Unemployment rate 5.9 5.7 9.6 7.7 6.4 8.8 6.9 6.3 Inflation 2.3 1.9 0.7 3.1 2.8 0.8 3.8 2.2 Before-tax profits 3.8 0.6 (4.0) 38.0 2.6 9.4 21.3 4.0 Current account (bil. $) (52.2) (47.4) (40.1) 5.0 (38.0) ......

* or as noted

Financial Forecast**

Current Q4 2020 Q4 2021 Q4 2022 9/03/21 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 2020 2021 2022

Overnight rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.75 3 month T-Bills 0.16 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.07 0.20 0.65 Treasury yield curve 2-Year 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.20 0.50 1.05 5-Year 0.79 0.85 1.00 1.10 1.15 0.39 1.00 1.50 10-Year 1.19 1.25 1.35 1.45 1.55 0.68 1.35 1.70 30-Year 1.75 1.80 1.90 1.95 2.00 1.21 1.90 2.10

CAD per USD 1.25 1.27 1.24 1.22 1.23 1.27 1.24 1.24 Oil price (WTI), U.S.$ 69 72 75 70 67 48 75 65

** end of period

Quarterly pattern

Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 actual actual actual actual actual actual forecast forecast Real GDP growth (q/q % chg. saar) (7.9) (38.0) 41.7 9.3 5.5 (1.1) 4.6 4.7 CPI (y/y % chg.) 1.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 3.4 4.0 3.8 CPI ex. food and energy (y/y % chg.) 1.8 1.0 0.6 1.1 1.0 2.1 3.0 3.0 Unemployment rate (%) 6.4 13.1 10.1 8.8 8.4 8.0 7.3 6.9

National Bank Financial

Provincial economic forecast

2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f

Real GDP (% growth) Nominal GDP (% growth) Newfoundland & Labrador -3.5 4.0 -5.3 3.2 2.6 0.8 4.1 -8.3 14.8 3.8 Prince Edward Island 2.5 5.1 -3.0 3.5 4.0 3.6 7.0 -1.0 7.2 5.0 Nova Scotia 1.9 2.4 -3.2 3.8 3.3 3.6 3.8 -1.9 6.9 4.6 New Brunswick 0.5 1.2 -3.7 3.6 3.0 3.6 3.0 -1.9 8.5 4.3 Quebec 2.9 2.7 -5.3 5.6 4.1 5.4 4.3 -4.1 10.8 5.2 Ontario 2.8 2.1 -5.0 4.8 4.2 4.1 3.8 -4.8 8.7 5.2 Manitoba 1.5 0.6 -4.8 4.3 3.5 2.5 1.0 -4.0 11.0 5.0 Saskatchewan 1.2 -0.7 -5.2 4.9 3.5 3.2 0.1 -9.2 20.5 4.3 Alberta 1.9 0.1 -8.2 5.6 4.2 3.4 2.7 -11.6 21.5 5.3 British Columbia 2.7 2.7 -3.8 5.2 4.2 4.9 4.4 -2.3 10.8 4.7 Canada 2.4 1.9 -5.3 5.0 4.0 4.2 3.6 -4.6 11.7 5.1

Employment (% growth) Unemployment rate (%) Newfoundland & Labrador 0.5 1.3 -5.9 3.5 0.4 14.1 12.3 14.2 12.8 12.2 Prince Edward Island 4.2 3.4 -3.2 3.7 2.2 9.4 8.6 10.6 8.7 8.2 Nova Scotia 1.9 2.3 -4.7 5.4 1.6 7.7 7.3 9.8 8.2 7.7 New Brunswick 0.6 0.7 -2.6 3.0 1.2 8.0 8.2 10.1 8.7 8.5 Quebec 1.5 2.0 -4.8 4.4 3.0 5.5 5.2 8.9 6.4 5.6 Ontario 1.7 2.8 -4.7 4.3 3.0 5.7 5.6 9.6 8.3 6.4 Manitoba 1.1 1.0 -3.7 3.7 2.0 6.0 5.4 8.0 6.8 5.5 Saskatchewan 0.6 1.7 -4.6 3.7 2.3 6.2 5.5 8.4 6.4 5.6 Alberta 1.9 0.6 -6.5 4.9 3.3 6.7 7.0 11.5 8.7 7.5 British Columbia 1.4 2.9 -6.5 5.4 2.9 4.8 4.7 9.0 6.7 5.6 Canada 1.6 2.2 -5.1 4.4 2.8 5.9 5.7 9.6 7.7 6.4

Housing starts (000) Consumer Price Index (% growth) Newfoundland & Labrador 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.3 0.8 1.7 1.0 0.2 3.1 2.6 Prince Edward Island 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 2.3 1.2 0.0 3.6 2.7 Nova Scotia 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.3 4.2 2.2 1.6 0.3 3.5 2.8 New Brunswick 2.3 2.9 3.5 4.0 2.8 2.2 1.7 0.2 3.4 2.8 Quebec 46.9 48.0 54.1 72.0 56.0 1.7 2.1 0.8 3.3 2.8 Ontario 78.7 69.0 81.3 95.8 81.7 2.4 1.9 0.6 3.3 2.8 Manitoba 7.4 6.9 7.3 7.5 6.3 2.5 2.3 0.5 2.9 2.7 Saskatchewan 3.6 2.4 3.1 4.0 3.6 2.3 1.7 0.6 2.9 2.7 Alberta 26.1 27.3 24.0 30.5 27.0 2.5 1.7 1.1 3.0 2.7 British Columbia 40.9 44.9 37.7 48.5 36.6 2.7 2.3 0.8 3.3 2.7 Canada 212.8 208.7 217.8 270.1 220.0 2.3 1.9 0.7 3.1 2.8 e: estimate f: forecast Historical data from Statistics Canada and CMHC, National Bank of Canada's forecast.

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