By 68-28 Percent, Public Does Not Think Reagan Has Told

The Harris Survey

For release: Monday AM, September 14, 1987 1987 *39 ISSN 0273-1037

BY 68-28 PERCENT) PUBLIC DOES NOT THINK REAGAN HAS TOLD FULL STORY OF HIS INVOLVEMENT IN IRAN-CONTRA AFFAIR

By Louis Harris

Although it is unlikely that the Select Committees of the House and Senate on the Iran-Contra affair will charge President Reagan with any specific offense, he emerges from the entire episode with his credibility badly shaken.

Here are high points of pUblic reaction to the President's speech about his role in the affair and his defense of his behavior, according to this Harris Survey, taken by telephone between August 14th and 19th, among a national cross section of 1,248 adults:

By 68-28 percent, a big majority does not believe that in his televised defense of this role last month, President Reagan "told the full story of his own involvement in the Iran-Contra affair." -- A smaller, but still significant 54-44 percent majority is convinced that in his speech and statements, the President was "still not telling the whole truth."

-- A substantial 68-30 percent report that up to now, at least, he has not convinced them that "he did not know about the diversion of funds to the Contras from the Iran arms sales." Despite repeated statements from the President and the flat-footed statement under oath by Admiral John Poindexter that Reagan did not know about the diversion until last November, it is apparent that a sizable majority of the people remain unconvinced that he did not know about it. Even though it is highly likely that the Select Committees' report will not charge him with knowing about the diversion, it is apparent that a majority of the pUblic simply will not believe it.

-- A 55-40 percent majority of the public is critical of the President that he has not insisted on "any violations of the law in connection with the Iran-Contra affair being prosecuted to the fullest." Although early on he pledged full cooperation with investigations such as the Tower Commission and the Select Congressional Committees and his Justice Department's call for the appointment of an Independent Counsel, President Reagan has not urged Judge Lawrence Walsh to prosecute possible law violators in the case. Indeed, some ardent conservative backers of the Reagan pro-Contra policy have urged that any potential indictments of Lt. Col. Oliver North and Admiral John Poindexter should be dropped.

There are two major points that have been made by the President that meet with public agreement:

By a relatively narrow 54-43 percent, a majority of the public is convinced that the President has "finally admitted he made mistakes, "and he has taken "the full blame for what happened."

By 57-41 percent, another majority feels President Reagan is right "to say the affair should now be put behind us to get on with other matters."

Yet the aadr.ess ar.d ups~t of t~~ rublic abcut the President's role in making the original decision to sell arms to Iran persists. An overwhelming 77-20 percent majority says "it is very upsetting that after all his tough talk about never making a deal with the Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran, President Reagan ended up making an arms deal with Iran." This majority has risen by 19 points since early July and now stands at record levels.

(over) THE HARRIS SURVEY -2- September 14, 1987

Most telling is the fact that 68 percent of those who voted for Reagan in 1984 express real upset over the arms deal with Iran as do 67 percent of all Republicans, 71 percent of conservatives and 72 percent of the followers of TV evangelical preachers. These results indicate that there is little sense of any Reagan strength in trying to rally to defense of his basic decision to send arms to Iran. In basic areas where the President has traditionally assumed major support and among key swing groups, that backing is simply missing on this pivotal issue: 76 percent of those earning $50,000 and over condemn his Iran arms policy, as do 78 percent of Yuppies, 82 percent of moderates, and 77 percent of independents. The entire episode has cost this President much of the euphoric support he enjoyed for most of his first six and one half years. The likelihood of restoring that old blind faith is slim at best. TAB L E S Between August 14th and 19th, the Harris Survey asked a nationwide cross section of 1,248 adults by telephone:

"In his speech on the Iran-Contra affair, do you feel that President Reagan (READ EACH ITEM) or not?"

STATEMENTS ON REAGAN'S SPEECH ON IRAN-CONTRA AFFAIR Did Did not Not sure -% % %

Was right to say the affair should now be put behind us to get on with other matters 57 41 2 Was wrong not to say that any violations of the law in connection with the affair should be prosecuted to the fullest 55 40 5 Finally admitted he made mistakes and took the full blame for what happened 54 43 3

Was still not telling the whole truth 54 44 2

Convinced you that he did not know about the diversion of funds to the Contras from the Iran arms sales 30 68 2 Told the full story of his own involvement in the Iran-Contra affair 28 68 4 "Do you feel or not feel that it was very upsetting that after all his tough talk about never making a deal with the Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran, President Reagan ended up making an arms deal with Iran?"

UPSETTING 'lhAT REAGh, MADE AR~S DEAL WITH IRAN?

Feel Don't feel Not sure -% % %

TOTAL 77 20 3

***Yuppies 78 20 2

$7,500 or less 74 20 6 $7,501-$15,000 81 16 3 $15,001-$25,000 76 21 3 $25,001-$35,000 77 22 1 $35,001-$50,000 78 19 3 $50,001 and over 76 22 2

Voted Reagan in 1984 68 28 4 Voted Mondale in 1984 92 7 1

(continued) THE HARRIS SURVEY -3- September 14, 1987

UPSETTING THAT REAGAN MADE ARMS DEAL WITH IRAN? (cont'd)

Feel Don't feel Not sure -% % %

Republican 67 29 4 Democrat 84 13 3 Independent 77 20 3

Conservative 71 25 4 Middle-of-the-road 82 15 3 Liberal 84 13 3

White TV Evangelical followers 72 24 4 ***Yuppies = at least some college and age 18-39

MET HOD 0 LOG Y

This Harris Survey was conducted by telephone within the United States between August 14th and 19th, among a cross sectlon of 1,248 adul~s ~atiQn~ide. Figures f8r ag~, sex, race and education were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

I~ ~ s~~rle 0f this size, onp r~n say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus three percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled.

This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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