Firebreak: Wildfire Resilience Strategies for Real Estate
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
FIREBREAK Wildfire Resilience Strategies for Real Estate © 2020 by the Urban Land Institute 2001 L Street, NW Suite 200 Washington, DC 20036-4948 Printed in the United States of America. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission of the publisher. Recommended bibliographic listing: Urban Land Institute. Firebreak: Wildfire Resilience Strategies for Real Estate. Washington, D.C.: Urban Land Institute, 2020. ISBN: 978-0-87420-466-7 FIREBREAK Wildfire Resilience Strategies for Real Estate ABOUT THE URBAN LAND INSTITUTE The Urban Land Institute is a global, member-driven organization comprising more than 45,000 real estate and urban development professionals dedicated to advancing the Institute’s mission of providing leadership in the responsible use of land and in creating and sustaining thriving communities worldwide. ULI’s interdisciplinary membership represents all aspects of the industry, including developers, property owners, investors, architects, urban planners, public officials, real estate brokers, appraisers, attorneys, engineers, financiers, and academics. Established in 1936, the Institute has a presence in the Americas, Europe, and Asia Pacific regions, with members in 80 countries. The extraordinary impact that ULI makes on land use decision-making is based on its members sharing expertise on a variety of factors affecting the built environment, including urbanization, demographic and population changes, new economic drivers, technology advancements, and environmental concerns. Peer-to-peer learning is achieved through the knowledge shared by members at thousands of convenings each year that reinforce ULI’s position as a global authority on land use and real estate. In 2019 alone, more than 2,400 events were held in about 330 cities around the world. Drawing on the work of its members, the Institute recognizes and shares best practices in urban design and development for the benefit of communities around the globe. More information is available at uli.org. Follow ULI on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Instagram. RESEARCH CONTRIBUTORS AND PROCESS ULI is grateful to the Kresge Foundation for its support of this project and ULI’s Urban Resilience program. To better understand how wildfires are affecting real estate and land use, ULI’s Urban Resilience program interviewed more than 50 real estate developers, designers, land use policymakers, nonprofit leaders, and wildfire experts. The authors also worked with a team of ULI member advisers with expertise in wildfire resilience and related topics, as well as with colleagues from the ULI Greenprint Center for Building Performance, the ULI Building Healthy Places Initiative, ULI San Francisco, ULI Colorado, and ULI Idaho to draft this report. A full list of the organizations that shared their knowledge and perspectives in interviews, nominated case studies, edited the text, provided supporting materials, and otherwise advised on the creation of this report is provided in the Report Team and Acknowledgments sections. The potential for unconscious bias may affect this research. The authors and the project team hope that the collaborative contributions of many to this report provide a robust and well-rounded perspective and reduce the potential for bias. Firebreak: Wildfire Resilience Strategies for Real Estate ii REPORT TEAM Lead Author Research Focus Group ULI Project Staff Elizabeth Foster Danielle Antonellis Billy Grayson Manager, ULI Urban Resilience Senior Fire Safety Engineer, ARUP Executive Director, ULI Center for Sustainability Founder and Executive Director, Kindling and Economic Performance Contributing Authors Claire Bonham-Carter Eleanor White Katharine Burgess Director of Sustainable Development Associate, ULI Center for Sustainability Vice President, ULI Urban Resilience AECOM and Economic Performance Robert Ogilvie Jay Bullock James A. Mulligan Founder, Ogilvie Labs Vice President, Planning and Entitlement Senior Editor Rancho Mission Viejo ULI Member and Partner Advisers Sara Proehl, Publications Professionals LLC Daniel Gorham Jeremy Klemic Manuscript Editor Research Engineer, Wildfire Program Associate Principal Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety SWA Group Brandon Weil Art Director Melissa Kroskey Brad Leibin Technical Director Associate, David Baker Architects Kurt Wisthuff, Arc Group Ltd WoodWorks, Wood Products Council Designer (a ULI Greenprint Innovation Partner) Neil Webb Director of Markets and Growth, Ramboll Craig Chapman Molly McCabe Senior Director, Publishing Operations President, HaydenTanner Cofounder, the Lotus Campaign Peter Quintanilla Urban Design Studio Leader Michael Baker International Firebreak: Wildfire Resilience Strategies for Real Estate iii CONTENTS View from the West: A ULI Member Perspective ........................................................ 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................2 Key Takeaways ................................................................................................... 6 Wildfire Risk ......................................................................................................7 Where Wildfire Is a Concern in the United States .................................................. 8 Development Trends Contribute to Increased Wildfire Risk ................................... 13 Climate Change Increases Wildfire Risk ............................................................. 14 Community and Industry Impacts ..............................................................16 Health and Safety ............................................................................................. 17 Emergency Evacuations and Community Displacement ....................................... 18 Structure Damage and Residential Value Changes .............................................. 19 Economic Impacts ............................................................................................ 22 Structure Survival: Best Practices at the Site Scale .............................25 Best Practices .................................................................................................. 26 Return on Investment ....................................................................................... 30 Protecting the Community: District-Scale Solutions ..............................32 District-Scale Solutions ..................................................................................... 35 Community Investments with Demonstrated Value .............................................. 42 Case Studies in Wildfire Resilience ............................................................45 Conclusion .......................................................................................................58 Acknowledgments ................................................................................................. 60 Notes ................................................................................................................... 61 Firebreak: Wildfire Resilience Strategies for Real Estate iv VIEW FROM THE WEST: A ULI MEMBER PERSPECTIVE ildfires have always been a part of the U.S. landscape, particularly in the drier West. But this year stands out because Wmassive, destructive wildfires—fueled in part by extreme weather and changing climate conditions—have broken records across the region and raised important questions regarding how the real estate industry can help communities thrive despite repeated fires. The toll on human lives, the landscape, and economies is personal. The specter of wildfires looms large here in Montana, where I live. We’re always on edge as we move toward the start of wildfire season. When the wildfire smoke blew in this fall, we shut the windows and doors in our non-air-conditioned home and turned on three HEPA filters that ran 24/7. Our air quality index registered at an unhealthy 169. My sister in California readied horse trailers to help whomever needed help evacuating. My 80-year-old parents in Oregon identified an evacuation footpath in the event their one road out is blocked by fire. And, one of the places we spent summers on the McKenzie River near Vida, Oregon, is completely gone, burned by the Holiday Farm fire. Wildfires became a national concern this season, with smoke reaching my ULI colleagues all the way in Virginia. We also saw the compounding MCCABE ULI/MOLLY effects of wildfires with other conditions, especially the coronavirus A hazy sky and unhealthy air quality in Montana as wildfires burn nearby in pandemic. First responders and evacuees risked contracting the virus August 2020. as they worked and sheltered in close proximity. Temporary housing for those who needed it was difficult to find amid social distancing recom- inhabitants, reduce fire spread through communities, and protect value mendations, simultaneous multiple large evacuations, and the country’s for owners and investors. ULI members are uniquely situated to share ongoing housing affordability crisis and housing shortage. In addition, lessons learned from their experience implementing wildfire resilience the communities affected by wildfires must recover during a significant tactics and to build support for wider implementation. economic depression. In addition to preparing their own developments, ULI