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HDL – Retail Trends November 21, 2017

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HDL – Retail Trends November 21, 2017 HDL – Retail Trends November 21, 2017 Why Retail Landlords are Turning to Apartments to Shore Up Their Properties? Construction has started on a 23-story upscale apartment tower at Westfield UTC, a one-million-sq.-ft. outdoor center in San Diego, but the project is much more than the redevelopment of an upscale retail center owned by the Sydney, Australia-based Westfield. Combined with a renovation that will be completed this fall, the rebirth of Westfield UTC suggests that relying less on brick-and-mortar stores will be a way of life for every shopping center. The Myth of the Retail Apocalypse Massive retail store closings and bankruptcies are causing concern, hype, and a little bit of over- reaction throughout the industry. While any growth-oriented enterprise will be rightfully concerned about the shrinkage, jumping to conclusions about a “retail apocalypse” is dangerous, and it’s even more dangerous to point fingers and lay blame where it is not deserved. What’s going on currently in retail is not an apocalypse, it’s a correction. E-Commerce to Account for 9% of All Retails Sales in 2017, Led by Amazon When it comes to online market share, Amazon is in a class by itself. But Walmart is coming on strong. E-commerce sales this year will grow 15.8% to $452.76 billion this year, representing 9% of total retail sales, according to eMarketer. The undisputed ecommerce leader is Amazon, with the largest share (43.5%) of U.S. retail online sales, equating to $196.75 billion this year. The online retailer now represents 3.9% of all retail sales in the U.S. Black Friday will be the Biggest Mobile Shopping Day Ever in the U.S. A new report from App Annie predicts that time spent doing mobile shopping via apps will grow 45 percent in the U.S. during the week of Black Friday, compared to the same time two years ago. The firm also expects revenue generated through apps to break new records this season, and says consumers will spend over 6 million hours shopping in the top 5 digital-first apps on Black Friday alone. Despite 'Christmas Creek,' Thanksgiving Weekend Still Reigns Just after Halloween, a bunch of retailers tried to get a jump on sales for the holiday shopping season, with Amazon, Walmart and eBay all pushing early discounts online this week. But don't worry if you're not in the holiday spirit quite yet and are annoyed by "Christmas creep," the trend of holiday sales and marketing starting earlier in the year. Despite these post-Halloween sales, retail experts say the days surrounding Thanksgiving weekend still reign as the top selling days of the year and should offer the biggest deals for most consumers. Bob Lutz Says 'Kiss the Good Times Goodbye,' Automotive Era at End Former General Motors executive Bob Lutz has written an article for Automotive News that stresses that the end of the automotive era is near. Soon “it will be the well-to-do, to the amazement of all their friends, who still know how to drive. ”In fact, Lutz boldly predicts that the human-driven automobile, its repair facilities, its dealerships, and the media surrounding it all will be gone in 20 years Gap, Ross Surge as Discount Format Still Luring in Shoppers Gap Inc. and Ross Stores Inc. are showing that growth is possible for apparel retailers. You just have to offer cut-rate prices. Both apparel companies saw their shares spike after posting comparable sales that exceeded analyst estimates. Gap relied on its budget-minded Old Navy chain for growth. Ross, meanwhile, used its off-price strategy to outperform expectations despite the hurricanes that battered Texas and Florida. The results indicate that Americans are still willing to hit the mall and stock up on apparel, if they feel like they’re getting a deal. HDL – Retail Trends December 13, 2017 Costco 'Destroys' November With Massive Sales Surge Costco reported that November net sales rose 13.2% to $11.26 billion from $9.95 billion during the similar period last year. For the twelve-week first quarter of fiscal year 2018 ended Nov. 26, net sales rose 13.3% to $31.13 billion, from $27.47 billion in the same period last year, according to a company press release. Costco’s results prompted Retail Metrics President Ken Perkins to headline his note "Holy Costco" and Gordon Haskett analyst Chuck Grom to declare, "Santa comes early to Issaquah," the warehouse retailer’s hometown. It's the Stupid Economy Well the title should actually read: “It’s the Economy Stupid.” Hope that got your attention because you’re gonna want to read this final feel good edition of the CA Economic Forecast newsletter for 2017. Despite record numbers of retail closures this year, horrific fires, hurricanes, Kim Jong Un and an ugly World Series game 7 (for the Dodgers), the consumer confidence index rose another 3.3 points in November to the highest monthly reading in a generation, or since December 2000. The U.S. Middle Class is Disappearing which Makes Dollar Stores Very Happy As more and more U.S. department stores close and malls are mothballed, Amazon is being blamed for the retail apocalypse. But there’s another dynamic crippling American retailers—a shrinking middle class exacerbated by a widening inequality gap. Between 1971 and 2015, the share of US income held by America’s middle earners has contracted from 61% to 50%, according to Pew Research. Wealthy families had three times as much wealth as middle-income families in 1983; by 2013, they had seven times as much. In response to their own economic woes, middle-class consumers have shifted away towards discount retailers. The fastest-expanding retailers in the US are cheap, “fast-fashion” brands like Zara and H&M—and dollar stores. 2018 Economic Forecast: The Outlook is Mostly Sunny but Some Clouds Loom Fair weather ahead. That’s the economic forecast for 2018. Retailers should benefit from an improving employment picture, growing disposable consumer income, and an easy credit environment. “We estimate core retail sales will increase by 4.7% in 2018,” said Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics for Moody’s Analytics, a research firm based in West Chester, PA. While consumer and business confidence remain high, the road ahead is not entirely clear. .
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