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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B) Initiating Coverage Report

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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B) Initiating Coverage Report The Owl Fund William C. Dunkelberg Student Managed Fund Initiating Coverage Report 20 April 2020 ``` Downside Current Price Upside Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Scenario Price Target Scenario Being “Greedy When Others are Fearful” $171.00 $191.20 $240.00 $258.00 -10% 25% 35% • The market-wide selloff due to the seemingly uncontrolled spread of the Symbol NYSE: BRK.B coronavirus and the economic standstill as a result of measures to 52-Week Range $159.5 – 231.61 control the spread has unfairly decreased the value of Berkshire Hathaway. Considering the coronavirus sell-off, the Company is now so YTD Performance (15.6%) attractively valued it is too appealing of an opportunity to pass on. Market Cap (M) $463,136 • A reluctance to accelerate share repurchases and a tax-benefit write off Enterprise Value (M) $163,944 associated with an equity investment in DC Solar cause BRK’s multiple Net Debt (M) ($302,964) to contract in May’19. Dividend Yield 0.0% • BRK’s Service & Retailing and Manufacturing segments are the most LTM P/E 19.4x exposed to impacts of the coronavirus, but the resiliency of its Insurance LTM P/Bk 1.09x and McLane Company segments should minimize the impact of the economic slowdown on the operating earnings of the firm. Unrealized ROE 21.1% losses in the firm’s equity portfolio may adversely affect the earnings of ROA 10.7% the firm, but Buffett reminds investors “to focus on operating earnings,” since unrealized gains and losses are incredibly volatile. FY (Jan) 2019A 2020E 2021E • Competitive advantages across its insurance portfolio, along with resiliency in its BNSF segment and an exorbitant amount of cash on its EPS balance sheet position BRK to quickly emerge on the right side of the Q1 2.89 2.50 2.70 current market environment. YoY Change (13.5%) 8.0% • BRK currently trades at a 1.08x LTM P/Bk multiple, a 21.4% discount Q2 3.18 2.43 2.42 to its three-year average. Through our sum-of-the parts analysis, we YoY Change (23.6%) (0.4%) except the stock to reach a target price of $240.00, a ~25.0% return. Q3 3.49 2.62 2.91 YoY Change (24.9%) 11.1% COMPANY OVERVIEW Q4 2.37 2.63 2.82 After Hathaway Manufacturing Company and Berkshire Fine Spinning YoY Change 11.0% 7.2% Associates merged in 1955 to create Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (BRK), Year 11.93 10.28 11.11 Warren Buffett and his investment team came to rescue the floundering textile company in 1965 before embarking on a wave of investments John Ourand that built up the global holdings company we know today. (202) 423-1248 Headquartered in Omaha, NE, BRK dwarfs competitors as the largest [email protected] financial services company by revenue, and indirectly manages 391,500 employees. Through its decentralized operating model, the company Sarah Merzen reports through six segments: Insurance (26.7% of FY’19 revenue, (215) 559-4915 includes its GEICO ownership), Burlington Northern Santa Fe, LLC [email protected] (9.3%), Berkshire Hathaway Energy (7.9%), Manufacturing (24.7%), McLane Company (19.9%), and Service and Retailing (11.6%). 82.4% Carson Shaner of its FY’19 revenues came from the U.S., with 3.0% from China and (267) 324-8373 14.6% from RoW. The Company reports 1Q’20 earnings on May 2nd. [email protected] Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CapitalIQ. The William C. Dunkelberg Owl Fund does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the Fund may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. All prices are current as of the end of previous trading session from date on which report was issued. The Owl Fund William C. Dunkelberg Student Managed Fund TABLE OF CONTENTS BUSINESS OVERVIEW ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 Insurance.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 Burlington Northern Santa Fe ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 Berkshire Hathaway Energy .......................................................................................................................................................... 4 Manufacturing .................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 McLane Company ............................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Service and Retailing ....................................................................................................................................................................... 5 INDUSTRY OVERVIEW ....................................................................................................................................................... 6 ~ Floating Over the Economy ~ .................................................................................................................................................. 6 Dry Powder Shopping Szn ............................................................................................................................................................ 7 UNDERVALUATION & THESIS.......................................................................................................................................... 8 A WORD ON THE SELLOFF ............................................................................................................................................. 9 “Focus on the Forest – Forget the Trees” ............................................................................................................................... 9 CATALYSTS & DRIVERS ................................................................................................................................................. 10 Increased Premiums + Lower Losses = Optimal Float .................................................................................................... 10 Reinsurance: Weakening Balance Sheets Drive Retro Reinsurance.............................................................................. 11 ADDITIONAL COMMENTARY ........................................................................................................................................ 12 Racks on Racks on Racks ............................................................................................................................................................ 12 Naming the Next in Charge… Which Road will the Oracle Take? ................................................................................ 13 PEER GROUP ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................ 14 In this House, We Diversify......................................................................................................................................................... 14 ECONOMIC MOATS & RISKS TO THE INVESTMENT THESIS ................................................................................. 19 VALUATION ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................................. 20 SCENARIO ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 20 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................................... 21 Revenue............................................................................................................................................................................................. 21 Earnings ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 22 Cash Flow/Share Repurchases .................................................................................................................................................. 22 Margins.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 23 Debt .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Float ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 APPENDIX ......................................................................................................................................................................... 24 20 April 2020 2 The Owl Fund William C. Dunkelberg Student Managed Fund BUSINESS OVERVIEW As a holding company, BRK has left its mark across the BRK FY'19 Revenue Breakdown economy by taking stakes in a diverse group of subsidiaries.
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