DOCSLIB.ORG

Black Swan Theory - Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia 23/09/2012 13:03 Black Swan Theory from Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Black Swan Theory - Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia 23/09/2012 13:03 Black Swan Theory from Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia Black swan theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia 23/09/2012 13:03 Black swan theory From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that is a surprise (to the observer), has a major impact, and after the fact is often inappropriately rationalized with the benefit of hindsight. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: 1. The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology 2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential A black swan, a member of the rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature species Cygnus atratus of small probabilities) 3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem", the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.[1] Contents 1 Background 2 Identifying a black swan event 3 Coping with black swan events 4 Epistemological approach 5 Further developments 5.1 Examples 6 See also 6.1 Books by Taleb 7 References 8 External links Background Black swan events were introduced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2004 book Fooled By Randomness, which concerned financial events. His 2007 book (revised and completed in 2010) The Black Swan extended the metaphor to events outside of financial markets. Taleb regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as "black swans"—undirected and unpredicted. He gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, and the September 11 attacks as examples of black swan events.[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory Page 1 of 7 Black swan theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia 23/09/2012 13:03 The phrase "black swan" derives from a Latin expression; its oldest known occurrence is the poet Juvenal's characterization of something being "rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno" ("a rare bird in the lands, very much like a black swan") (6.165).[3] In English, when the phrase was coined, the black swan was presumed not to exist. The importance of the simile lies in its analogy to the fragility of any system of thought. A set of conclusions is potentially undone once any of its fundamental postulates is disproved. In this case, the observation of a single black swan would be the undoing of the phrase's underlying logic, as well as any reasoning that followed from that underlying logic. Juvenal's phrase was a common expression in 16th century London as a statement of impossibility. The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers.[4] In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent. After Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh discovered black swans in Western Australia in 1697,[5] the term metamorphosed to connote that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. Taleb notes that in the 19th century John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical Black swan fallacy as a new term to identify falsification.[citation needed] Specifically, Taleb asserts[6] in the New York Times: What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives. Identifying a black swan event Based on the author's criteria: 1. The event is a surprise (to the observer). 2. The event has a major impact. 3. After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals. An example Taleb uses to explain his theory is the events of 11 September 2001. 9/11 was a shock to all common observers. Its ramifications continue to be felt in many ways: increased levels of security; "preventive" strikes or wars by Western governments. The coordinated, successful attack on the World Trade Center and The Pentagon using commercial airliners was virtually unthinkable at the time. However, with the benefit of hindsight, it has come to be seen as a predictable incident in the context of the changes in terrorist tactics. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory Page 2 of 7 Black swan theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia 23/09/2012 13:03 Coping with black swan events The main idea in Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict black swan events, but to build robustness against negative ones that occur and be able to exploit positive ones. Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are very vulnerable to hazardous black swan events and are exposed to losses beyond those predicted by their defective models. On the subject of business in particular, Taleb is highly critical of the widespread use of the normal distribution model as the basis for calculating risk. In the second edition of The Black Swan, Taleb provides "Ten Principles for a Black-Swan-Robust Society".[7] Taleb states that a black swan event depends on the observer. For example, what may be a black swan surprise for a turkey is not a black swan surprise to its butcher; hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey" by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white".[8] Epistemological approach Taleb's black swan is different from the earlier philosophical versions of the problem, specifically in epistemology, as it concerns a phenomenon with specific empirical and statistical properties which he calls, "the fourth quadrant".[9] Taleb's problem is about epistemic limitations in some parts of the areas covered in decision making. These limitations are twofold: philosophical (mathematical) and empirical (human known epistemic biases). The philosophical problem is about the decrease in knowledge when it comes to rare events as these are not visible in past samples and therefore require a strong a priori, or what one can call an extrapolating theory; accordingly predictions of events depend more and more on theories when their probability is small. In the fourth quadrant, knowledge is both uncertain and consequences are large, requiring more robustness.[citation needed] According to Taleb,[10] thinkers who came before him who dealt with the notion of the improbable, such as Hume, Mill, and Popper focused on the problem of induction in logic, specifically, that of drawing general conclusions from specific observations. The central and unique attribute of Taleb's black swan event is high impact. His claim is that almost all consequential events in history come from the unexpected — yet humans later convince themselves that these events are explainable in hindsight. One problem, labeled the ludic fallacy by Taleb, is the belief that the unstructured randomness found in life resembles the structured randomness found in games. This stems from the assumption that the unexpected may be predicted by extrapolating from variations in statistics based on past observations, especially when these statistics are presumed to represent samples from a normal distribution. These concerns often are highly relevant in financial markets, where major players use value at risk models, which imply normal distributions, although market returns typically have fat tail distributions.[citation needed] Taleb: "I don't particularly care about the usual. If you want to get an idea of a friend's temperament, ethics, and personal elegance, you need to look at him under the tests of severe circumstances, not under the regular rosy glow of daily life. Can you assess the danger a criminal poses by examining only what he does on an ordinary day? Can we understand health without considering wild diseases and epidemics? Indeed the normal is often irrelevant. Almost everything in social life is produced by rare but consequential shocks and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory Page 3 of 7 Black swan theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia 23/09/2012 13:03 jumps; all the while almost everything studied about social life focuses on the "normal," particularly with "bell curve" methods of inference that tell you close to nothing. Why? Because the bell curve ignores large deviations, cannot handle them, yet makes us confident that we have tamed uncertainty. Its nickname in this book is GIF, Great Intellectual Fraud." More generally, decision theory, based on a fixed universe or a model of possible outcomes, ignores and minimizes the effect of events that are "outside model". For instance, a simple model of daily stock market returns may include extreme moves such as Black Monday (1987), but might not model the breakdown of markets following the 9/11 attacks. A fixed model considers the "known unknowns", but ignores the "unknown unknowns".[citation needed] Taleb notes that other distributions are not usable with precision, but often are more descriptive, such as the fractal, power law, or scalable distributions and that awareness of these might help to temper expectations.[11] Beyond this, he emphasizes that many events simply are without precedent, undercutting the basis of this type of reasoning altogether.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Black Swan" Event As Manifestation of Uncertainties in Public Administration
    ISSN 2039-2117 (online) Mediterranean Journal of Vol 10 No 2 ISSN 2039-9340 (print) Social Sciences March 2019 . Research Article © 2019 Igor Vladislavovitch Ponkin. This is an open access article licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). "Black Swan" Event as Manifestation of Uncertainties in Public Administration Igor Vladislavovitch Ponkin Doctor of Science (Law), Professor, Department of the State and Municipal Administration, Institute of Public Administration and Civil Service, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russian Doi: 10.2478/mjss-2019-0018 Abstract Public administration, today, in practice is projected, programmed and realized today, as a rule, as though it occurred in the conditions of high degree of definiteness. This article is devoted to research of uncertainties in public administration, in particular, the so-called "black swan" phenomenon in public administration has been investigated. Aim: the purpose of the article included: to define a concept of uncertainty of public administration, consequences of such uncertainties, to consider the concept and features of the "black swan" event in public administration and to consider the existing scientific interpretations of this concept. Methods: to achieve aims mentioned above, such methods as the method of analysis, synthesis, classification method, and others were used. Results: the article presents the author's concept of uncertainty, defined place of certainty in the process of public administration and the classification of types of "black swan" events. Keywords: public administration, uncertainty in public administration, deviantology of public administration, the "black swan" concept 1. Introduction Administration, as V.A.
    [Show full text]
  • And Common Questions in Flsa Collective Actions
    THE FEDERAL COURTS LAW REVIEW‡ Volume 10 2017 THE UNANIMITY RULE: “BLACK SWANS” AND COMMON QUESTIONS IN FLSA COLLECTIVE ACTIONS Allan G. King* & Andrew Gray** “I think everyone has a little black swan in them, it’s just a matter of when you let it out.”1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 2 I. WHAT IS A COLLECTIVE ACTION, AND HOW ARE THEY TRIED? .......................................................................... 8 II. THE PLAINTIFF’S BURDEN OF PROOF IN MULTI-PLAINTIFF FLSA CASES. ........................................................................ 17 III. ARE A COURT’S DECISIONS TO CONDITIONALLY CERTIFY AND REFUSAL TO DECERTIFY A COLLECTIVE ACTION SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN AGGREGATE SUBMISSION? ...... 20 IV. WHAT FURTHER INQUIRY IS NECESSARY TO JUSTIFY AN AGGREGATE SUBMISSION? .................................................... 24 V. THE UNANIMITY RULE IN PRACTICE AND HOW IT CAN BE IMPLEMENTED AT TRIAL. ...................................................... 29 ‡ The Federal Courts Law Review is a publication of the Federal Magistrate Judges Association. Editing support is provided by the members of the Mississippi Law Journal. * Allan G. King is a shareholder in the Austin office of Littler Mendelson, P.C. He holds a B.A. degree from the City College of New York, an M.S. and Ph.D. in economics from Cornell University, and a J.D. from the University of Texas School of Law. ** Andrew Gray is an associate in the Austin office of Littler Mendelson, P.C. He holds a B.A. from The University of Texas at Austin, and a J.D. from the University of Texas School of Law. 1 Interview by Christina Radish with Mila Kunis, Actress (Nov. 23, 2010), http://collider.com/mila-kunis-interview-black-swan/ [https://perma.cc/36NJ-WFQF].
    [Show full text]
  • Predicting the Black Swan Ludic Fallacy and Self-Healing in Future Cellular Networks Janne Ali-Tolppa, Nokia Bell Labs, Munich, Germany
    Predicting the Black Swan Ludic Fallacy and Self-Healing in Future Cellular Networks Janne Ali-Tolppa, Nokia Bell Labs, Munich, Germany Abstract: Nassim Nicholas Taleb developed what he calls the black swan theory to describe the often inappropriate rationalization people have with hindsight on unexpected, unpredictable but catastrophic events, which gives rise to the demand to be able to predict them. He derives from it the concept of ludic fallacy, which is an argument against applying naïve and simplified, game-like statistical models on complex domains. The argument centers on the idea that predictive models are based on simplified ideal forms, which ignore the incredible complexity of reality. Because of this, what we tend to see, post hoc, as a failure of the predictive capability of a model, may very well be a Black Swan, something that was real, but unpredictable or predictable only after the fact. In future cognitive mobile networks, where ultra-reliable services are required, we can engineer the networks to be robust against any known possible problems, but how to make them resilient also in case of unforeseen ones? Can more cognition in the mobile network self-healing methods help us to predict and prevent the completely unexpected and catastrophic failures? Mobile networks are definitely a very complex domain and the problems highlighted with the ludic fallacy are relevant. After a failure, when we know, which features to look at, it may seem to have been predictable, but if a similar failure has never occurred before in a given context, the system has no way of knowing which features to look at for the prediction.
    [Show full text]
  • Black Swan Theory: We Know Absolutely Nothing & the finding of Atypical Events Optimization-Method
    Black Swan Theory: We know absolutely nothing & the finding of atypical events optimization-method Carlos Castro Correa Risk Specialist - Senior Actuary, AXA Mexico. Applied Mathematician, ITAM. e-mail address 1: [email protected] e-mail address 2: [email protected] Mexico City. Abstract Even if we dont understand it, Black Swans have turned the most important events in the modern history. Based in the presumption that all the swans are white, because all the swans observed before were white, until an explorer discovered one black; the Old World state- ment of impossibility “black swan” were used to describe anything “impossible or not existing”. Introduced in the Nassim Nicholas Taleb book: “Fooled by randomness”, the Black Swan Theory show us the possibility to expect the impossible. In fact, we can identify three 1 main features of black swan events: • After the occurrence of the event, explanations are formulated making it predictable or expectable. • The event has extreme impact. • The event is unexpected or not probable. Black Swan events have occurred in different modern activities: 9/11 events, 2008 eco- nomic crisis, the rise of internet etc. We are specially interested in financial and risk manage- ment black swan events; the secondary purpose of this paper is to analyze the common Normal distribution utilization in the risk models and their main weakness to forecast black swan (fre- quently after-occurrence modeled as fat tales distribution). The objective is not present a tech- nical model to predict Black Swans but establish the limitations of our estimation techniques. Despite limitations forecast techniques, it is usually required a classification of typical and atypical (Black Swan) observations.
    [Show full text]
  • Black Swan and Decision Analysis Jack Kloeber DAAG Conference 2010
    Presenting: Nassim Taleb’s Black Swan and Decision Analysis Jack Kloeber DAAG Conference 2010 DAAG is the annual conference of the SDP. To find out more about SDP or to become a member, visit www.decisionprofessionals.com Nassim Taleb’s Black Swan and Decision Analysis Presented at 2010 DAAG By Jack Kloeber Kromite, LLC Have you ever seen a black swan? A Black Swan (Cygnus Atratus) in the Singapore Botanical Gardens. Img by Calvin Teo (Own work). Permission / CC‐BY‐SA‐3.0 or CC BY‐SA 2.5‐2.0‐1.0, via Wikimedia Commons. We found black swans showing up in art, literature, TV…. • From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia • Jump to: navigation, search • Black Swan is the common name for Cygnus atratus, an Australian waterfowl. • Black Swan may also refer to: • [edit] Arts, literature, TV, and film • Books and stories: – The Black Swan (1932), pirate adventure novel by Rafael Sabatini – The Black Swan (Mann novella) (1954), short book by Thomas Mann – The Black Swan (1994), work of short fiction by Grace Andreacchi – "Black Swans" (1997), essay by psychologist Lauren Slater – The Black Swan (Lackey novel) (1999), fantasy novel by Mercedes Lackey – Black Swan Green (2006), novel by David Mitchell – The Black Swan (Taleb book) (2007), book about uncertainty by Nassim Nicholas Taleb • TV and Films: – "Black Swan", an episode from the American TV series FlashForward – The Black Swan (film), a 1942 swashbuckler film adapted from the novel by Rafael Sabatini – "The Black Swan", Curb Your Enthusiasm episode – Black Swans (2005), Dutch drama – Black Swan
    [Show full text]
  • Radicalisation of Existence and Identity Recognizing the Global Emergence and Influence of Daimonic Dynamics -- /
    Alternative view of segmented documents via Kairos 23 March 2015 | Draft Radicalisation of Existence and Identity Recognizing the global emergence and influence of daimonic dynamics -- / -- Introduction Indicative forms of radicalisation of existential focus Metaphorical clues to radicalisation of existence and identity Daimonisation as answering a radical question? Clues to radicalisation from astrophysics and solar evolution Clues to radicalisation from nature and the environment Clues to radicalisation from matter and its organization Radical implications of daimonisation for weather and climate change? Waveforms, catastrophe, singularity and annihilation Radicalisation in the light of mathematics (geometry, topology and logic) Metaphysics, mysticism and meditation Existence within daimonic reality? Identity within daimonic reality? References Introduction This follows from previous exploration of the condition of "radical" as being increasingly considered highly problematic for society -- and the consequent demonisation of radical action (Radicalisation versus Demonisation? Enabling radical initiatives under conditions of strategic stalemate, 2015). That process follows from the black-or-white contrast distinguishing "radical" from "normal", as previously discussed (Norms in the Global Struggle against Extremism: "rooting for" normalization vs. "rooting out" extremism? 2005; Eradication as the Strategic Final Solution of the 21st Century? 2014). With respect to demonisation, the argument concluded with indication of the subtler insights highlighted by various authors and traditions concerning the daimonic as reframing overly simplistic understandings of that contrast. Hence the consideration there of the possibility of "daimonisation", in contrast to "demonisation", as indicative of a means of fruitfully reframing "radicalisation". That argument arose from concern that the sense of "radical", and of "radical action" of any kind, tended to focus almost exclusively on description and explanation from a "normal" conventional framework.
    [Show full text]
  • The Black Swan Free
    FREE THE BLACK SWAN PDF Mercedes Lackey | 416 pages | 25 May 2000 | Penguin Putnam Inc | 9780886778903 | English | New York, NY, United States Black Swan () - IMDb The Black Swan black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight. The term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor, writer, and former Wall Street trader. Taleb wrote about the idea of a black swan event in a book prior to the events of the financial crisis. Taleb argued that because black swan events are impossible to predict The Black Swan to their extreme rarity, yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a black swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to try to plan accordingly. Some believe that diversification may offer some protection when a black swan event does occur. Taleb later used the financial crisis and the idea of black swan events to argue that if a broken system is allowed to fail, it actually strengthens it against the catastrophe of future black The Black Swan events. He also argued that conversely, a system that is propped up and insulated from risk ultimately becomes more vulnerable to catastrophic loss in the face of rare, unpredictable events. Taleb describes a black swan as an event that 1 is so rare that even the possibility that it might occur is unknown, 2 has a catastrophic impact when it does occur, and 3 is The Black Swan in hindsight as if The Black Swan were actually predictable.
    [Show full text]
  • 'Black Swan Effect' on Croatian Stock Market Between 2000 and 2013
    Volume 6 No 1 (2016) | ISSN 2158-8708 (online) | DOI 10.5195/emaj.2016.92 | http://emaj.pitt.edu Testing The ‘Black Swan Effect’ on Croatian Stock Market Between 2000 and 2013 Anita Radman Peša University of Zadar | [email protected] Ana Brajković University of Zadar | [email protected] Volume 6 No 1 (2016) | ISSN 2158-8708 (online) | DOI 10.5195/emaj.2016.92 | http://emaj.pitt.edu | Abstract We tested the economic activity and stock exchange of Croatia as a new country of European Union (EU) in order to investigate the ‘Black Swan effect’ from 2000 to 2013. The empirical findings obtained in application of OLS methodology and Chow breaking point test provide evidence and show that resignation of the Croatian ex-Prime Minister did lead country successfully to EU. Also, ‘The Black Swan’ event, being unpredictable and having huge impact on political and economic environment in Croatia obtained through CROBEX, had effect on Croatian stock exchange indices. Authors conclude that, the resignation was connected to one of the first significant cases of corruption in Croatia which had a negative impact on the economic development of the country in general, dealing at the same time with global recession. JEL-Classification: E44, F36, F43, F47, G15 Keywords: financial integration, stock exchange, world crisis, corruption, Black Swan New articles in this journal are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License. This journal is published by the University Library System of the University of Pittsburgh as part of its D-Scribe Digital Publishing Program, and is cosponsored by the University of Pittsburgh Press.
    [Show full text]
  • Prof. Anna Maria Variato A.A. 2015-2016
    Macroeconomic Dynamics a.a. 2017-2018 Prof. Anna Maria Variato a.a. 2015-2016 Prof. AnnaMaria Variato 1 Macroeconomic Dynamics a.a. 2017-2018 The relevance of minskian contribution in the explanation of empirical facts: the subprime crisis The role of FIH as a paradigm to explain macroeconomic dynamics Is the FIH the only relevant “piece of explanation” even for Minsky himself? Main references: • A. Vercelli, (2010), Minsky moments, Russell chickens and grey swans: the methodological puzzles of financial instability analysis, in «Minsky, crisis and develpment», Tavasci and Toporowski (eds.) St. Martin Press, McMillan, 15-31 • A. Vercelli, (2011), A Perspective on Minsky moments, revisiting the core of the financial instability hypothesis, Review of Political Economy, v. 23, 49-67 • A. Variato, (2015), Can we say Minsky moment when households matter?, in «Cycles, Growth and the Great Recession», Cristini, Fazzari, Greenberg and Leoni (eds.), Routledge, London, 25-44 Prof. AnnaMaria Variato 2 Macroeconomic Dynamics a.a. 2017-2018 … to be … or not to be Finance Money Liquidity Solvency Fragility Stability Endogeneity Exogenous shocks Fairness Efficiency Uncertainty Irreversibility All agents Firms Real effects Nominal Effects Aspects emphasized by Minsky Standard issues Prof. AnnaMaria Variato 3 Macroeconomic Dynamics a.a. 2017-2018 Issues raised by Minsky Empirical: Suitable for the explanation of recent events? Yes, Yes but, No, Who cares? From theoretical to methodological: Is the Financial Instability Hypothesis
    [Show full text]
  • Global Governance As a Riddle but Is a Solution the Answer to the Question? -- /
    Alternative view of segmented documents via Kairos 26 November 2018 | Draft Global Governance as a Riddle But is a solution the answer to the question? -- / -- Introduction Evocation of a court jester? Challenge to binary thinking? Disassociation of humour from governance? Surprise? Wonder? Framing the riddle? Missing insight? Surreal embodiment of requisite complexity? Solving the riddle? Riddle of governance as a question? Framing the paradox of a surreal context as a riddle? Living with a riddle -- or within one? References Produced on the occasion of the 13th Annual Meeting of the Group of Twenty (G20), in Buenos Aires (2018) Introduction Given the current condition of global civilization, and the capacity of global governance to respond to it, there is a case for exploring the challenge of global governance in terms of a riddle. There is of course a long history to framing the response to dilemmas through the use of a riddle of some form -- potentially to be understood as a a puzzle to be solved. Wikipedia suggests that two types of riddle are to be distinguished. Enigmas are problems generally expressed in metaphorical or allegorical language that require ingenuity and careful thinking for their solution. By contrast, conundra are questions relying for their effects on punning in either the question or the answer. Riddling is recognized in many cultures -- some riddles being shared across cultures. Curiously however, riddles have in the past few decades ceased to be part of oral tradition, being replaced by other oral-literary forms, and by other tests of wit such as quizzes. (Annikki Kaivola-BregenhØj, Riddles: Perspectives on the Use, Function, and Change in a Folklore Genre, Studia Fennica, Folkloristica, 2001).
    [Show full text]
  • Durham E-Theses
    Durham E-Theses Can Motor Skills Training Improve Academic Performance? A Structured Motor Skills Intervention for Young Children. KATSIPATAKI, MARIA How to cite: KATSIPATAKI, MARIA (2013) Can Motor Skills Training Improve Academic Performance? A Structured Motor Skills Intervention for Young Children., Durham theses, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/10579/ Use policy The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details. Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 0191 334 6107 http://etheses.dur.ac.uk 2 I Can Motor Skills Training Improve Academic Performance? A Structured Motor Skills Intervention for Young Children. Maria Katsipataki A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Education Durham University 2013 II ABSTRACT The thesis explores the relationship between motor and academic skills. According to previous research, motor skills difficulties can affect academic outcomes. Furthermore, there is growing evidence supporting the relationship between the motor and academic areas.
    [Show full text]
  • SCIENTIFIC THINKING to Remedy “Black Swans,” “Wicked Probl
    SCIENTIFIC THINKING to Remedy “Black Swans,” “Wicked Problems,” and Assorted Science/ Policy Failures Vic Baker Regents’ Professor of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Geosciences, and Planetary Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 1. Science-as-process of inquiry, serving as a continually updated guide to action SCIENCE, NOT as facts, but as ACTS 2. Black Swans - surprising extreme-impact events that exceed expected possibilities 3. Wicked Problems - unique, seemingly endless questions without true or false answers, that get viewed from conlicting perspectives, and whose supposed “solutions” lead to yet more wicked problems 4. Failure of Science-as-knowledge, effectively serving as the authoritative basis for wise, publically understood action Philosophy is not so popular these days: Philosophy: a discipline offering "worthless courses" that offer "no chances of geng people joBs” Governor Pat McCrory North Carolina "We need more welders and less philosophers" Senator Marco Rubio Although all the humanies suffer disdain, philosophy keeps on aracng special negave aenon -- perhaps because in addion to appearing worthless, it also appears vaguely suBversive. Across the naon there's unbounded adulaon for the STEM disciplines, which seem so profitable. Martha Nussbaum (Huffington Post, 3/14/2016) Science is above all an acLvity and an atude, held by a community of like-minded invesgators, who are passionately driven by their desire to uncover the truths of nature. In order to pursue this inquiry into nature it is actually necessary to have uncertainty, not to suppress it. How could one possibly do science, as just defined, if its subject maer consisted of facts and absolute truths? There would be nothing to pursue.
    [Show full text]